What if the Leafs had the Eddie of old (or even just an average NHL goalie?)

As of this morning (29/03/06) 67 goalies have played 10 games or more this NHL season. Add J.S. Aubin to the list and the sample size hits 68.

The Mean (average) save percentage among these goalies is .898

The Median (middle of the list) save percentage among these goalies is .896

Cue the soft dissolve and squiggly lines and let’s pretend the Leafs had bought-out Belfour and retained the services of a goalie who was able to put up a save percentage squarely in the middle of the league – let’s say a nice round .897. (For those of you keeping score at home, this would put either Marty Turco or Vesa Toskala between the pipes for the blue and white, or if you want to be even more realistic, bump the save percentage up to .898 and you’d get Curtis Joseph).

The outcome?

Seven fewer goals against.

Surprised? I sure am.

In his 49 appearances this season, Belfour gave up 159 goals on 1476 shots for a save percentage of .892. That puts Belfour 45th out of the 68 goalies in my sample. Clearly, Belfour’s results are not good enough, but is this the reason the Leafs are on the outside of the playoffs looking in?

If you improve the Leaf’s save percentage in the 49 games Belfour played to the middle of the pack rating of .897, the Leafs would have given up 152 goals on 1476 shots – that’s just seven fewer goals than the 159 that squeaked, trickled, and blew by Belfour. Put another way, that’s 0.16 of a goal a game or one fewer goal against every 6.25 games.

Obviously the stats can’t take into consideration the psychological impact of back-breaking weak goals, nor does it address Belfour’s horrible performance in the shoot-out. But this quick and dirty analysis certainly made me re-think how much of this season’s futility could be blamed on Belfour.

That said, paying Belfour millions to deliver these results and then paying him millions more to go away is a whole other matter...

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NCAA and the Wisdom of Crowds

I know it’s not a Leaf post, or even a hockey post, but Wayne Flemming has a very clever article in today’s (28/03/06) National Post on James Surowiecki’s great book The Wisdom of Crowds and the rather improbable outcome of this year’s Final Four bracket.

Unfortunately, the article is for paying subscribers only but I’d encourage you to search fish joints, subway seats and other places where dead newspapers thrive so that you can read the whole thing.

Here’s the nut:

In The Wisdom of Crowds, Surowiecki says crowds are better at "solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future."

Clearly, the masses were wrong about the 11th-seeded George Mason University Patriots.

Snip…

ESPN.com's Tournament Challenge drew more than three million entries from 1.5 million people. Participants predicted the outcome of each game in each bracket before March Madness began. No one picked all the games correctly and only four people nailed the Final Four teams who will face off in Indianapolis this weekend.

I wonder if the 1.5 million folks who entered at ESPN are a diverse enough crowd – it’s a huge sample size, but it may be a bit of a monoculture. Fascinating nonetheless - more on Surowiecki, stats and the NCAA here, here and here.

March 1997 meet March 2006

On March 27, 1997 I posted the following to item to my personal webpage under the heading - Thoughts of a Bitter Leaf Fan, a devout follower questions his faith. It's startling to me to see just how little has changed. Here we are nearly nine years later to the day. Another decade and no closer to the cup...

Starting to Re-build

1. This is the most sensible direction for the club to take for three reasons:
   With the current leaf line-up, available draft picks, and players in the system, they have no footing on which to compete against the better teams in the Western conference. There is very little upside to the current leaf roster, including players throughout the system. The Leafs must re-build if they hope to even compete with the better teams in the league.
2. Should the Leafs acquire more veterans or maintain the status quo, their team becomes another year older, another year slower, and when rebuilding does occur - as it has to, the value of their tradable talent base will be further in decline.
3. With the Leafs moving into a new stadium in three to four years, a rebuilding process initiated at this time would have an exciting young team on the rise moving into a new stadium to take advantage of new revenue streams.

Finally, although it has been said elsewhere by many, I would like to address the charge that Leaf fans do not have the patience to rebuild. This is simply rubbish. Leaf fans have endured horrible leaf teams for 25 of the last 30 years. I'm sure if a poll were taken, people would rather see a rookie take a dumb penalty late in the game instead of Macoun, or see a Neidermayer ill timed pinch than a Larry Murphy one. One can always hope that young players can learn from their mistakes. A young club also means a leaner payroll, something Mr. Stavro would most certainly be interested in.

There is a downside to re-building that must also be considered:

• Team management predicted this club was capable of a 90 point season, while most others were looking at the club to finish out of the playoffs. Given this discrepancy, how qualified is team management to evaluate talent and decide a future direction for this club?
• Drafting has an associated risk, 18 year old juniors are not known commodities. Look at recent Leaf draft picks...
• The club does not appear to have a solid scouting base
• The Leafs' farm system has not been able to develop drafted players who can step in at the NHL level. Felix Potvin, and to a lesser extent Todd Warriner, are the only leaf prospects to compete in the NHL and Warriner was a Nordique draft choice. The development of Jeff Ware will offer insight into how the Leafs will approach developing talent in the year to come.
• Rebuilding requires patience, Toronto and the associated media scrutiny may side track a GM away from re-building plans. Ottawa has a solid development plan, but as they approach the playoffs ahead of schedule will Gauthier modify his plan in pursuit of playoff experience?
• The Leafs do not have a first or second round draft pick in this year's draft and may have to pay a heavy price to acquire one.
• I don't think the Leafs have as good a young core to rebuild around as management might have us believe. Other than Sundin, the young Leafs are average. This season Potvin has been a disappointment, Schneider - when healthy - over handles the puck and makes poor play selections, Warriner shows signs but is inconsistent. What the Leafs have is an average youth core with some potential

Tedesco, Ferguson and me...

The front page of today's (25/03/06) National Post is dominated by a story from Theresa Tedesco on the sad state of my beloved Toronto Maple Leafs.

Up front, I want to make clear that I'm a big fan of Tedesco's book detailing the take-over of the Leafs from a publicly traded company to the behemoth that is MLSE, but after reading her story today, I have to say she might be better off in the FP and away from the sports pages.

The article is on the mark when it sticks to ownership and business decisions, it's when she speaks to the sporting side it makes about as much sense as some of Quinn's recent coaching decisions.

It should also be noted that this piece is clearly an effort at damage control by friends of Mr. Ferguson.

Let's have a look...

TORONTO - Amid the public wrenching over whether the Toronto Maple Leafs will qualify for the NHL playoffs, the owners of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment Ltd. say they have been privately watching events unfold pretty much according to plan.

And although no one at MLSE will admit it publicly, the Leafs' post-season prospects for the next couple of seasons are not expected to be any more promising.

Ok so far, I pretty much couldn't agree with her more. Most experts said last September that this club would be life and death to make the playoffs. They're currently losing 3-1 to the Habs (make that a 6-2 loss), in the latest of many "must-win" games.

Paragraph 3 is where Ms. Tedesco starts to sound like she's dipped into the Captain Morgan with Harry and Bob.

That unspoken prognosis is largely the consequence of a youth movement advocated by Leafs general manager John Ferguson Jr. in a blueprint he presented two years ago to MLSE's owners -- a strategy that, sources say, will likely result in the firing of head coach Pat Quinn at the end of this season, as well as the departure of fan favourite Tie Domi and a handful of other underperforming veterans.

There are several problems with this paragraph, if JFJ's advocating or planning a yourth movement:

Why didn't he buy out more of the team in the off-season? Sundin, Belfour and McCabe account for about 35% of the team's salary.

Why did JFJ sign so many older players, many of whom (Domi, Berg, etc.) were inked to multi-year deals?

Why didn't he move all of the team's unrestricted free agents at the trade deadline for picks and prospects?

Tedesco continues, with a greater focus on JFJ's business decisions - moving the St.Johns team to Toronto, consolidating training, medical staff and practice facilites and increasing scouting staff. But when she gets back to the team that JFJ "inherieted" she's back on some thin ice.

Making matters worse, Mr. Ferguson also inherited a team that had traded away its top draft choices seven times in the past 10 years.

JFJ traded a first and second round pick and prospects for Brian Leetch. Leetch went on to play 15 games for the Leafs.

However, the 310-day NHL lockout quickly tested the company's resolve and the general manager's ability to walk the talk. Three months before the lockout began in September, 2004, Mr. Ferguson re-signed Mr. Belfour, a 40-year-old Vezina Trophy winner and all-star goalie, to a two-year contract plus an option for a third year -- totalling US$17-million -- despite his advancing age.

JFJ should be fired for this contract alone.

In the summer of 2004, Ed Belfour was 39 years old with chronic back injuries. There is wide-spread talk of salary caps, long-term work stoppages and general uncertainty.

JFJ sweeps into action, signing Belfour to a three year contract worth $15.5 million (2 years at $7million, an option at $1.5m) that includes a no-trade clause.

Think about this for a minute.

There's no hockey on the horizon for a minimum of six months, and more likely a year. Your goalie is 39 years old and requires invasive back surgery. He hasn't made it out of the second round of the playoffs in years. He looked quite average in the series against the Flyers and he didn't steal a single game in the playoffs.

For this, he gets a multi-year deal with a bonus and a no trade clause.

Who in their right mind would tender this contract?

I get the feeling I put more thought into managing my rotisserie team than this guy does running the Leafs.

Oh, and let's not forget Ms. Tedesco's article and the master plan for a youth movement (anchored by a 40 year old goalie with a bad back). Ms. Tedesco continues:

The following year, in June, 2005, MLSE's board reviewed the progress of Mr. Ferguson's strategic plan as the lockout appeared to be coming to an end. This time, the general manager had to address the fate of a handful of players in the twilight years of their careers who were set to become unrestricted free agents.

I would have added three words to that last sentence, "by doing nothing."

The Leafs, like all teams, had the opportunity to buy-out any existing contracts. Detroit moved on Hatcher, Whitney, Joseph and McCarty; the Rangers parted ways with Holik; the Flyers with Amonte, LeClair; etc.

About 40% of the Leafs' payroll is held by three players: Sundin ($6.3M/year); Belfour ($5.6M/year) and McCabe ($3.5M/Year). Biggest flock of free agents in the history of the NHL and the Leafs did nothing. This inaction left the club with $24 M to sign 19 players.

Under pressure to make a move, Mr. Ferguson extended Mr. Quinn's coaching contract for an undisclosed amount.

He followed up with a series of deals that gave little outward indication that MLSE was planning an overhaul of its most prized asset.

For example, shortly after the NHL governors and the NHL Players' Association agreed to end the lockout in July, 2005, which included a US$39-million salary cap, he allowed Messrs. Roberts and Nieuwendyk to bolt to the Florida Panthers and cut ties with winger Robert Reichel. He replaced those veterans with three others -- Eric Lindros and Jason Allison, both signed as free agents, and Jeff O'Neill, whom the Leafs secured by giving up a conditional draft pick.

Remember, this is part of the master-plan to build with youth from within.

Let's look at the rest of JFJ's post-labour stoppage decisions (no snickering please):

a) acquiring Jeff O'Neill who's clearly out of shape, who didn't play during the lockout, and who's goal scoring prowess has been going down like a coked-up Paris Hilton in a room full of camcorders. After one 30 goal season (likely a contract year) he went on to score 14 goals in 2003-2004. Guess what? He's potted 16 goals for the Leafs this season and is on target for 18.

b) Signing Eric Lindros - a guy that has averaged about 50 games a season for the last five years. Guess what? Lindros played 33 games for the Leafs before going out for the year.

c) signing Jason Alison to an incentive laden contract that's going to cost the club $4.5M (yup, $4.5M). Has any player since Craig Janney put a softer 50+ points on the board than Alison? 30 of his points have to be second assists. His plus minus is horrific, and many of his mistakes are of the terminal variety (it was his giveaway that led to game winners from Healty and Grier). In a game dominated by speed you need a calendar to time this guy; I'm surprised a crazed leaf fan hasn't climbed the glass, jumped in the zamboni and drove over him. Lord knows Alison couldn't outskate it, even if it had three flat tires…

d) signing Tie Domi to a 2 year, $2.5M deal. Domi has one goal in his last 49 games. When Ondrus got run from behind in Pittsburgh, Domi did nothing. When he was benched, he whined. When there were trade rumours, he threatend to retire. This is leadership? This is character?

e) talking Antropov out of playing in Russia and qualify him for 2 years at $1.1M; Antropov has only once played more than 65 games in a season and has averaged 24 points a season. Furthermore, in 28 playoff games, he has 5 points. Guess what? Antropov is on target to play 58 games this year and score 25 points – just like has his whole career. Good thing JFJ locked him up for one more season, wouldn't want a player like that to get away.

f) signing Aki Berg for $1.1M - think about that for a second - a fifth or sixth string defenceman for nearly triple the league minimum salary. Carolina picked up Mike Commodore for a third round pick, he makes $500K; Buffalo picked up Lydman for a 3rd round pick, he makes $700K. We resigned a pylon and gave him a raise.

g) Paying Wade Belak $720,000 - that's $270K above the league minimum and about $719,000 more than he's worth.

h) Landing Marius Czerkawski for $500K and then refusing to play him. He was a healthy scratch for over 40 games this year, which is important to consider because…

i) Anson Carter wanted to play for the Leafs this season, but the Leafs couldn't afford his salary demands of $1M. Carter has played in 70 games, notching 28 goals, 21 assists and a +3 rating. Belak (43 games, no goals, 3 assists, -14) and Czerkawski (27 games, 5 goals, 2 assists, -6) have a total salary of 1.22 million and have collectively played in 70 games combining for five goals, five assists and a combined rating of -20.

Ms. Tedesco concludes:

Leaf loyalists may have been given a taste of what lies ahead for the team at the NHL trade deadline two weeks ago. Fans and pundits urged Mr. Ferguson to make a drastic move, even speculating that captain Mats Sundin should be traded.
But Mr. Ferguson didn't budge, instead completing two minor deals.

I think the dreaded third-way lies ahead, call it Babcockian. It's not making a bold move like loading up for a playoff run or selling off any and all assets that won't be returning next year, it's standing-pat and hoping for the best.

Even the Islanders figured out the best option for this season.

Think of that - in his final act, Mike Milbury may have become a better GM than JFJ...


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