Kickin' it old school

So I'm driving back from Home Depot tonight (gotta get those LED Christmas lights for the house. Usually Home Depot makes for a pretty nice little Saturday - buy some wallpaper, maybe get some flooring, stuff like that. Maybe Bed, Bath, & Beyond if we have enough time) and I flip on AM640 to check the score in the Leaf game. It's 1-0 Atlanta in the second.

Given the Leafs total and complete inability to come back in any meaningful way this season (0-5-1 when trailing after 1 - that's a .000 win percentage for anyone scoring at home; 1-9-2 when trailing after 2 - a sizzling .083 winning percentage) I figured game over.

And how.

Got home just as the third started and could only laugh at how bad the Leafs looked. I kept expecting to see Tom Watt behind the bench. Or Doug Carpenter (although if Carpenter was behind the bench the Leafs would have lost 9-4).

I'm going to beat a dead horse here: isn't this team built from the back end out? A team that's tough to play against? Isn't this the most expensive defensive core in the NHL? Consider this: depending on how many goals the Coyotes and Kings give up tonight the Leafs might have coughed up the second most goals in the NHL (***update: as of December 1, the Leafs are 26th in total goals against. Twelve goals are separating the Leafs from the dead-last Flyers.)

That’s quite the peer group my beloved Blue and White have fallen in with. I don’t know about you other Leaf fans, but I’m not so crazy about the Buds hanging around with the Flyers, Panthers, Kings and Coyotes down in the basement. And what’s Carolina doing traveling with that crowd?

There's a great lesson in stats/economics about predictive markets - e.g. that if a crowd estimates how many pennies are in a jar, buy and sell shares on oscar nominees, or offer advice on what the correct and final answer is - their collective wisdom is spot on. Before this season started, all the experts said the Leafs would have trouble scoring and that they wouldn't make the playoffs. Average together all their estimates...

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I'm wondering if anyone with more of a statistical bent than yours truly would be able (or willing) to look at the rate of comeback wins this year as compared to last.

Part of the "New NHL" sizzle was the notion that no lead was safe. Teams could no longer get up one or two goals and count on the win. I'd love to know if there was any truth in that notion - were there in fact more come from behind wins last year than in previous seasons? In turn, how is this young season looking in terms of leads holding up.

Yawn

Harrison clears waivers, Telly goes to Phoenix for $600K in dead-weight salary that will be buried in the AHL and on MLSE’s books Tyson Nash and a fourth round pick. Yawn…

Leafs lose another boring game to Boston (I saw that Glenn Murray goal coming all the way down the Lakeshore…anyone else notice that almost every Bruins goal, if not all of them in the past two games went right over Raycroft’s catching hand?). I’m glad the black and gold are gone for a while. Nothing like watching a team trap all night. Yaaaawwwwwwnnnn. New NHL indeed.

Here’s a quick look at the Leafs at the 25 (26?) game point. (A blogger commenting on a seasonal milestone? Yawn…)

Coaching - I have two concerns with the coaching at this point:

1. The team is completely unable to adapt their game to play against passive defensive teams like the Bruins and Devils; and
2. Despite the huge number in the goals for column, this team cannot mount any type of comeback. The Leafs have not won a single game when trailing after the first, and have only managed to win one game when trailing after two periods.

That’s a shocking stat.

What happens if this club does make the playoffs? Can Maurice come up with a game plan to break the trap? Can this club adapt its game to win a seven game series? Can this club scratch and claw it’s way to a playoff win? Based on the year to date, I have my doubts.

The standings: Once a sign of confidence - the team was second in the North East and fourth in the Division - unfortunately last night’s win by the Habs, coupled with the Leafs consecutive losses to the Bruins, puts the Buds third in the ConferenceDivision and fifth in the DivisionConference.

The Sens will likely catch and pass the Leafs in the standings just before Christmas (and don’t say I didn’t warn you or give you enough advance notice – there will be lots of blather, spit, ink, mindless use of air time – you name it, that will come at that juncture). The Sens’ ascendance (boo!) will push the Leafs down to fourth in their ConferenceDivision and at least sixth in theirDivisionConference. Let the hand-wringing begin…

Scoring: Everyone and their cousin said the Leafs wouldn’t be able to score this year, yet they’re second in the East in scoring and third overall in the NHL. So much for the experts…Unfortunately, while the team maybe filling the other teams’ net, they’re not exactly shutting down the opposition. The Leafs have the third worst goals against in the East and the fifth worst overall in the NHL. With a back-end eating up nearly half the salary cap and long-term commitments to Kaberle, Kubina and McCabe, this is just not good enough.

What else isn’t good enough? The bloody NHL schedule.

The Leafs play Boston on December 7th and then again with a double-bill to bring in the New Year. In all of the Dave Nonis nonsense about the schedule, did anyone point out that it could be improved just by spreading out the games against certain teams? Does anyone want to see the Leafs and Bruins play six times in eight weeks? Insomniacs everywhere rejoice...

Short Shifts

JFJ's New Deal
I'm happy that JFJ's extension gives him one less thing to worry about. While I don't think he's the best man for the job, as a Leaf fan I wish him nothing but success. Huge Sucess. Drought-breaking, miracle making, smile inducing, career defining success.

The Tipping Point for Tucker
When I look at at how many teams are backed up right against the cap, I can only conclude that many GMs are still sorting out the best way to deal with the CBA. I think in seasons ahead we'll see many GMs move away from maxing-out at the cap, giving them a bit more flexibility to add parts as needed (Tom Benjamin has an interesting post on that topic here).

To that end, I'm wondering if the Leafs might be feeling a bit of a pinch if the salary cap doesn't go up again next year. Dave Johnson at Hockey Analysis thinks Tucker may have to go in order to balance the books...I can't see JFJ having the cojones to pull that off...be interesting to see how this one plays out. Certainly as Tucker approaches/exceeds the $4M barrier, the amount of cap space remaining for JFJ gets critically smaller...which leads me to the next blurb...

Leaf RFAs and Compensation
I know it's like game 23 or something and all of this is very far off, but the impact of RFA contract demands could be crucial for the Leafs next year, especially vis-a-vis Tucker's future with the club.

Here's a quick RFA refresher from the CBA (section 10.2.B.ii):

In order to receive a Right of First Refusal or Draft Choice Compensation...the Prior Club of a Restricted Free Agent must tender to the Player...a "Qualifying Offer"...on at least the following terms and conditions:

If the RFA's earnings are $660,000 or less, he must be given a qualifying offer at 110% of the current salary (a 10% raise). This applies to White, Wozniewski, Harrison, Tvellquist and Bell.

Players earning $660,001 to $1M, must be given a qualifying offer at 105% of their current salary. This applies to Colaiacovo, Kronwall, Ponikarovsky, Suglabov.

Antropov is the only RFA on the Leafs earning more than $1M - RFAs earning in excess of $1M can be qualified at their current salary.

Now keep in mind that 5 to 10% raise doesn't get the player signed, it just guarantees that the Leafs receive compensation if another team (hello Philadelphia!) does offer a contract to a RFA and the Leafs do not match that offer. In the event that does occur, the Leafs would be eligible for the following compensation:

Offer	Compensation
Under $660,000	None
Over $660,000 to $1 Million	Third Round Pick
$1 Million to $2 Million	Second Round Pick
$2 Million to $3 Million	First and Third Round Picks
$3 Million to $4 Million	First, Second and Third Round Picks
$4 Million to $5 Million	Two First Round Picks, a Second and a Third Round Pick
Over $5 Million	Four First Round Picks

If I'm another GM, I'd gladly double Ponikarovski's salary, tender him an offer sheet at $1.5M and lose a second round pick as compensation. Hell, offer White $900K if you've got the cap space and you get White and Poni on your team for $2.4M and a second and third round pick. A solid move if you're an eastern division rival and JFJ has limited cap space after signing Tucker at $4M...

Tucker

The most difficult task facing JFJ at the moment (other than trying to come up with an explanation as to why the $19M spent on the back end of this club hasn’t dropped the teams goals against) might be what to do with Darcy Tucker.

Love him or hate him, Tucker represents outstanding value in today’s capped environment. Last season, he was fourth in team scoring with 28 goals and 33 assists – good for 61 points and 77th overall in NHL scoring.

All that for $1.596M. Not bad.

With thirteen goals already this season, it’s clear that Tucker is in for a big raise. But don’t buy into any of the recent media coverage indicating that this is a deal that has to happen quickly. David Shoalts correctly pointed out that the NHL dictates that a player cannot sign a contract that is a 100-per-cent increase or more on their current salary until after January 1.

Should he stay or should he go?

Clearly, the contract terms Tucker is seeking will dictate whether he’s signed or dealt.

Howard Berger was one of the first to weigh-in on what level of compensation Tucker might be due.

I generally like Howard’s coverage of the Leafs and he seems like a decent guy, but his post’s implicit suggestion that Tucker be compensated along the likes Savard ($5M), St. Louis ($6M) or Demitra ($4.5M) was ridiculous.

More recently, Brendan Morrow’s name popped up in the media as measuring stick for Tucker’s next deal.

But neither Morrow nor any of Berger’s comparators are legitimate analogs when it comes to either Tucker’s age or his production.

Savard finished 9th overall in NHL scoring, outpacing Tucker by 36 points.

Demitra may have only outscored Tucker by 1 point, but he put up those numbers in just 58 games and Demitra has a history as an elite scorer recording 93 points in 2003 – a stratosphere Tucker has never approached (and likely never will).

St. Louis may not have filled the net lately, but his contract was clearly in reaction to his winning the scoring title, the Stanley Cup and the Hart Trophy in the pre-lockout year. The only thing Tucker has won was an easy decision over Patrick Eaves.

Morrow put up similar numbers to Tucker last season (Morrow: 23-42-65/ Tucker 28-33-61); however, Morrow was a +30 to Tucker’s -12. Morrow is also four years younger than Tucker and likely has many prime years ahead. Given the type of game Tucker usually plays, I don’t anticipate that he will age gracefully and injuries will eventually take their toll.

Damien Cox suggested Tucker should be signed for $3 to $3.5M. That might be more in line with what Tucker is worth. (I also couldn’t agree more with Cox about NOT offering Tucker any type of no-trade or non-movement clause).

Personally, I don’t know what Tucker is worth, but a $3 to $3.5M deal would put him in the same pay bracket as Selanne ($3.33M); Horcoff ($3.6M); Comrie ($3M); Nagy ($3M); Sullivan ($3.2M); Brendan Morrison ($3.2M); the Sedins ($3.5M); Weight ($3.5M); Afinogenov ($3.3M); and Justin Williams ($3.5M).

Cap Issues: If Tucker gets $3.5M – What’s Left?

Given the number of stories about NHL attendance problems this year, I can’t see the cap taking another big jump like it did this year. So let’s presume the cap for 2006-07 is $44M.

The Leafs have committed just over $23M to nine players for 2006-07: McCabe ($5.75M); Kubina ($5M); Kaberle ($4.25M); Gill ($2.075M); Raycroft ($2M); Kilger ($900K), Stajan ($875K); Wellwood ($875K); Belak ($675K) - plus the final year of Belfour’s buy-out ($770K).

The club has an option on Sundin that’s going to come in somewhere around $6M depending on how it's done

That puts the Leafs salary for 2006-2007 at $30M with just 10 bodies on the ice. That may be the perfect number of skaters for a Wednesday night pick-up game, but for the slightly more intense NHL, the Leafs they need to sign another 12 to 13 guys.

Should Tucker sign at $3.5M, the Leafs will have $10.5M remaining to sign 11 players, including all of the RFAs on this team, and any UFAs that tickle JFJs fancy (including any of Peca, O’Neill, or Aubin…)

My best guess as to the Leafs Payroll for 2007-2008 (with a HUGE thank-you/hat tip to the NHL salaries page blog) is $38.2M committed to 20 players, which provides a small amount of wiggle room ($5M?) to get 3 more players signed-on. I'm not sure if it's the ideal situation, but it's not an impossible one.

Bottom Line

The simple question for JFJ is: can I get Tucker’s name on a contract for $3 to 3.5M.

The tougher question for JFJ, given the existing financial commitments of the club and his super-secret-plan, is: what’s Tucker’s optimal value to the organization – is it as one more multi-million dollar multi-year contract or is it as trade bait?

The toughest question for JFJ is: if the contact terms being sought by Tucker are too high, does he have the balls to trade the guy who just might be the most popular player in Leafs Nation?

Despite the headlines (and this blog post) we won't know after Janary 1...

Day O'Links

Over at JABS, Chris Young takes a look at Penalties Drawn. And on the topic of penalties, Hockey Numbers has new stats on Diving.

Deadspin has a blurb on Motorhead sponsoring a soccer team in the UK. Given the sorry state of music at NHL games, you'd think someone would show Lemmy at little love.

Salary Cap Chicken and Egg

I was thinking about the Leafs line-up situation as they head into their game against the Habs tonight and I bumped into a question I don't have the answer to.

Prior to the salary cap era, big budget teams like Toronto, Detroit, St. Louis, Philadelphia and the Rangers could use their spending power to acquire additional players to cover up any number of holes on their team - whether it was a bad trade, a history of poor drafting or an injury depleted line-up. Now? Not so much.

Which leads me to that question that’s been rolling around in my little brain pan all afternoon: Is the Leafs new-found reliance on youth and depth a result of the salary cap or is it part of some greater master plan?

I'll put it another way: if there were no cap and the Leafs could run up $70 to $80M in salary commitments, would there be a youth movement underway down at the ACC? Would some young prospect be headed out of town right now to fill one of the current holes on the Leaf bench? (Could one even go so far as to suggest this is some sort of Rorschach test on the status of JFJ - those in the extend-him camp answering master-plan; those in the anti-JFJ camp answering salary cap forced his hand...)

We'll never know the answer to any of these questions, but it's what I've been thinking about between heated games of connect four with a cagy three-year old this rainy Saturday afternoon.

äsch nej!

As if Sundin's elbow injury wasn't enough, now Raycroft is out with a pulled groin and Kubina is catching a baby somewhere in the Czech Republic (oh, I've been to Prague)...sometimes I wonder what Toronto has done to so anger the Hockey Gods.

I also wonder if this team is going to need a three-goal buffer each night to stay in the win column...wasn't sure that the Buds were going to pull that one off tonight.

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There certainly continues to be a lot of noise over Mick McGeough's blown call in the Edmonton-Dallas game a week ago (see here , here, here and here - for starters).

In terms of refs blowing it, the Sports Economist has offered up quite a few interesting posts and links on home-side bias in referees, the tendency for NHL refs to make even-up calls and the importance of accountability standards to keep sports from evolving (devolving?) into pro-wrestling.

When it comes to league response, I've always thought the NFL does a very good job of holding their officials accountable and owning up rather publicly to their mistakes - for example, issuing a league sanctioned statement whenever there is serious question about a call. The NFL even has a Monday night TV segment called Official Review to address refereeing issues.

Which brings me back to the good 'ol NHL.

While the NCAA has handed out one-game suspensions to officials and the NFL goes out of its way to maintain officiating standards and look into officiating shortcoming, the NHL's response to McGeough's blunder was seriously lacking. If you surf through their news archive there's a near identical CP story and AP story on the matter, but I couldn't find an official release or an official statement issued by the League.

I have seen my share of horrific calls and non-calls over the years, but I don't recall an NHL referee ever being suspended or called on the carpet by the NHL for any of them. It's too late now, but had the NHL stepped up to the plate, shown some accountability and dealt with this as the NFL does - maybe even suspending McGeough for a game - this wouldn't be hanging around like a Keith Primeau concussion.

Which makes me wonder, does anyone know if the NHL ever taken disciplinary action - fines, suspensions, complementary donuts - against one of their refs? I've never seen it, but I think it might be a good idea.

Memo to Dave Perkins

Dave Perkins has an interesting article in today's Toronto Star (05/11/06) commending JFJ for keeping the young kids at last year's trade deadline.

I originally wrote a very long piece on this, but I'll cut it back to two essential points:

1. The Leafs were pretty much capped out at the trade deadline. I would love to know how JFJ could possibly have traded away youth (who make no money) for veterans (who make lots of money). It simply couldn't be done.
   
2. Was anyone, anywhere, pushing JFJ to trade any youth at last year's deadline? No. The pressure was for him to deal all of the UFA spare parts for something (anything!) before they walked. Instead they walked, the Leafs got nothing for them and the team still missed the playoffs.

Perkins commends JFJ for doing the only thing he could do (keeping the kids) and is absolutely silent on JFJ's real shortcoming at the trade deadline. Nice work, I look forward to future columns from Mr. Perkins like:

• Starting Brodeur: Julien's Brilliant Coaching Mind
• Wilson's Decision to Keep Joe Thornton Paying Off
• Riccardi's Choice of Retractable Roof Good Move for Jays

Last thought of JFJ; First thought on the Sabres

I have one last thought on JFJ's tenure before I get to tonight's game with the Sabres.

One really positive thing about JFJ's time as GM that I should have mentioned is that he's clearly learned from his mistakes and he has not been passive about addressing them. Often, for political reasons or concerns about perceptions, senior personnel will not acknowledge that an error has been made. JFJ did the right thing for buying out Domi and not exercising Belfour's contract and he should get full credit for that.

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The Leafs are in Buffalo tonight. PPP has game day thoughts and I'll chime in with a few here.

Given that the Leafs win in Buffalo about as often as teams from Buffalo win championships, the Sabres are the hottest team in the NHL and the Leafs have been a pretty mediocre bunch this year it could be ugly tonight. Five alarm blaze in Tonawanda ugly. Superbowl XXVII or XVIII (your choice really) ugly.

Here's hoping the Leafs keep it close and if they do lose, Afinogenov and Vanek do major damage as I have both of them in my pool. No use losing to the Sabres if those two are kept off the scoreboard...

JFJ Redux

I heard JFJ on the Fan590 Wednesday evening and I have to say I actually felt sorry for the guy.

McCown and Brunt asked him about his contract status at MLSE and JFJ spoke openly and honestly about his desire to remain GM of the Leafs and to secure a longer-term deal. It might have been the first time that I’ve felt he came across as a genuine person.

Based on that interview and the panel discussion that followed, I have a strong feeling that MLSE is going to ink Ferguson to a longer-term deal.

I came to this conclusion not as a result of heavy analysis, insider knowledge, or any brilliant gems that the talking heads offered-up at 5:45 on a Wednesday night.

No, I came to this conclusion mostly because this is the Leafs and extending JFJ is the wrong thing to do - so odds are it’s going to happen.

If there’s anything my three decade long one-way love affair with the Leafs has taught me it’s that this is an organization that likes to do things the difficult way and that 9 times out of 10 they like to make the wrong decision (please refer to: Sittler and MacDonald, treatment of; Roger Neilson and the paper bag; Carl Brewer’s come-back; Fred Boimstruck; trading Randy Carlyle; Brophy’s tenure; Courtnall for Kordic; Nimrod; Nykoluk; Nyland; Draft schmaft; the Gardens closing ceremony; the Smith-Dryden-Quinn triumvirate; Rick Ley's line-up cards; Post-lockout contracts for Belfour, Domi, Belak; the Jason Allison experiment; trading first round picks four times in the past 10 years; and on and on and on...)

Let me be clear about this: JFJ may be one helluva nice guy. He may be a smart hockey man; he may one day be a giant among NHL executives. But at the moment, he’s still a GM feeling his way and that’s not what this club needs. This club needs the best mind in hockey and, no offense to JFJ, he’s not that guy.

Let me put it in starker terms. According to Stats Canada, the average life span of a Canadian male is 75 years. That means I’ve got about 40 more chances to see the Leafs win the Cup before I kick the bucket. The last thing I need is to waste another 2 or 3 of those chances while JFJ goes about learning his job. JFJ's hesitant tenure is, if you will, killing me.

JFJ has been GM of the Leafs since 2003. This is his fourth year and third season as GM of the Leafs. The sum total of his achievements – a second round exit in his first year with the club; a post-lockout scramble that resulted in missing the playoffs for the first time since 1997-’98 and lots of questionable player personnel moves. (As an aside, if any of you readers seriously believe for one second that JFJ wasn’t in charge until this year – stop reading here. Seriously. Even if you were remotely right – and you are not - there’s only one conclusion that can be drawn from that line of thinking: JFJ has no cojones and should have resigned his post if he had to play second fiddle or manage while shackled by the board. If he’s that weak of a man, I don’t want him running the team.)

The sum total that JFJ has added to the Leafs on-ice product? 12 of 28 players. And of the 12 who have JFJ’s stamp on them, half are marginal role players who will likely be back in the AHL by the mid-point of this season:

1. Jean Sebastian Aubin - UFA signed 2004
2. Bates Battaglia –AHL reclamation project. Will likely return to the A
3. Hal Gill – UFA signed 2006
4. Chad Kilger – Claimed off waivers
5. Pavel Kubina – UFA signed 2006
6. Jeff O’Neill – Acquired post-lockout for a draft pick
7. Ben Ondrus – AHL reclamation project. Will likely return to the A
8. Michael Peca – UFA signed 2006
9. John Pohl – AHL reclamation project. Will likely return to the A
10. Andrew Raycroft - Acquired for Tukka Rask
11. Aleksander Suglobov – Acquired for Ken Klee - looks great in the press box
12. Andy Wozniewski – Likely headed to the Marlies when the D overcome injuries

The rest of the team were all here prior to JFJ's arrival:

1. Nik Antropov – drafted 1998
2. Wade Belak – 2001 Waiver Claim
3. Brendan Bell – drafted 2000
4. Carlo Colaiacovo – drafted 2001
5. Jay Harrison – drafted 2001
6. Tomas Kaberle – drafted 1996
7. Staffan Kronwall – drafted 2002
8. Bryan McCabe – Acquired in trade for Karpotsev
9. Alexei Ponikarovsky – drafted 1998
10. Matt Stajan – drafted 2002
11. Alex Steen – drafted 2002
12. Mats Sundin – Acquired in trade for Clark
13. Darcy Tucker – Acquired in trade for Mike Johnson and Marek Posmyk
14. Michael Tvelquist – drafted 2000
15. Kyle Wellwood – drafted 2001
16. Ian White – drafted 2002

Some of JFJ’s other questionable moves:

• Acquiring Brian Leetch for all of 15 games
• re-signing Belfour to that goofy contract
• thinking the lock-out would be short term
• not buying-out Belfour post-lockout
• being caught flat footed post-CBA
• Inking Domi to a two-year contract
• all of his post-CBA player acquisitions being uniformly busts
• whiffing at last year’s trade deadline
• failing to recognize that the Leafs may have had the talent on-hand to win all year (but continued to deploy the plodding Allison, the creaky Belfour and the shaky Khavanov)
• Giving McCabe a no-movement clause – the first of its type in the NHL
• Extending Belak's contract

This is not the stuff Championships are made of. This is not the stuff that warrants mid-season contract extensions and this is not the stuff that slightly increases the odds of the Leafs winning the cup before some very important personal StatsCan indicators kick-in.

I think the Leafs owe it to JFJ and his family to either put a bullet in him or ink him to a new deal.

If I were on the MLSE Board, I’d thank JFJ for his time, provide him with a nice reference and move him along or offer him a more junior post with the club. This team needs the best mind in hockey, not a guy who’s still learning as he goes.