Misunderstood?

There's a fortune inside your head, all you touch turns to lead...

As Peca lay on the ice in Chicago, I started thinking about JFJ's acquisitions and how so few of them have panned out for the Bleu et Blanc. My first reaction was that Howard Carter was the architect of this team and Tutankhamen isn't pleased...consider:

• Peca: 35 games played, fractured tibia, Gary Glitter's got a better chance at a comeback
• Lindros: 33 games for the Buds, torn wrist ligament ended it all
• Raycroft: currently 34th in Save Percentage; 31st in Goals Against
• Belfour: currently 26th in Save Percentage; 19th in Goals Against; bought out at $1.5M
• Tellqvist, dumped for a 4th round pick, has more wins with Phoenix than the Leafs do in December
• Suglabov: 10 GP, 0G /0A /0pts, 4PiMs; -4
• O'Neill: 110GP; 30G /32 A /62 Points; -13
• Kubina: Sprained MCL in game 4; $5M for 0G, 4A, 14PiMs, +0
• Allison: Broken hand ended his season, currently unemployed
• Khavanov: left the NHL, now playing with Davos in Switzerland

At first glance this might seem like bad luck, but if you dig a little deeper you can see a real pattern - there's been a clear failure to make informed player personnel decisions down at MLSE.

The only surprise about an injury ending Lindros' year was that it was his wrist and not his head. Allison can't get a gig playing table hockey these days; Raycroft is looking worse than Belfour whom we're still paying for, never mind the top prospect we gave up to land Raycroft. As the Leafs cough up six goals in the last two losses, cast-off Tellqvist is handing the Ducks their first shut-out loss of the season. Suglabov can't crack the line-up, meanwhile Klee has put up twice as many points (1G/8A) and is a whopping +13.

Peca at $2.5M is a signing that was looking pretty dire prior to his injury. Wonderful news that he's a great guy in the room - on the ice he's led the Leafs' PK to the middle of the pack (17th overall), he's put up typical uninspiring offensive numbers (4G/11A in 35GP) and he's taken way too many penalties this year.

Want to know something scary? That pretty much leaves Hal Gill as JFJ's lone bright spot. Hall freakin' Gill as our beacon of hope.

Based on how things have gone for JFJ to date, I fully expect Gill to suffer a catastrophic injury, to leave the NHL and go play in Europe in the next few months or maybe both.

But on a more serious note, the trade deadline is looming larger for the Leafs as they struggle to qualify for the post-season. UFAs on this club include: Sundin, Peca, Tucker, O'Neill, Battaglia and Aubin. RFAs include Antropov, Ponikarvosky, Suglobov, White, Colaiacovo, Wozniesky, Harrison, Bell, and Kronwall.

Someone has to decide what to do with these bodies.

Given his record to date, do we really want it to be JFJ? Does anyone think this is the guy who's going to take the Leafs to the next level?

3-6-1 in December. Outside the playoffs looking in. No cap space. Merry Christmas Leafs fans...

That's it for 2006

I'm likely the last one to the party on this but I thought I'd lead off with some sad news - Chris Young is wrapping up JABS easily the best MSM sports blog out there. Congratulations are in order for his promotion, but his blog will be missed.


Leafs play the resurgent Hawks in a classic Norris Division match up tonight. With Wellwood and Ponikarvosky hurt and Aubin starting I don't like their odds. Of course, that means the Leafs will likely win big. Wirtzsucks.com doesn't offer up much in terms of insight, but it does have a very catchy name.


I'm going overseas for a month, so blogging will be light to non-existent here in the land of bitterness until late January. I hope to return to one of two scenarios - a screaming hot Leafs club that's tearing up the league, or a complete wipe-out resulting in a front-office shuffle. Most likely outcome? Leafs play .500 in my absence and continue to float between 7th and 13th in the east. I'll return just in time to see the Leafs play the Kansas City Penguins, hopefully the Pens marketing division will crack out the ol' powder blue jerseys for that match up...

Happy holidays, I'll see you in 2007.

Another Journo's Shameless Attempt at Leaf Bashing

I’ve noticed that the Globe’s hockey blog is pretty much arid when it comes to comments. Despite a few explicit attempts to get some feedback going, the feedback pages are as empty as the Leafs win column this month.

I’ve also noticed that I’m reading less and less mainstream media coverage of the NHL – I can get far better insight, funnier jokes and more robust two-way communication from the sea of hockey blogs out there.

What ties these two thoughts together?

Well, look no further than Ken Campbell’s embarrassingly bad entry at Globe hockey this week.

I haven’t missed Cambell's coverage in the Star, I haven’t read him at the Hockey News (is there a less relevant sports paper these days?) and if his entry at the Globe is anything to go by, he’s either in desperate need of an editor or desperately trying to get the comments flowing. (Campbell did manage to drum up 3 whole responses, which might tie the record for most feedback on that page.)

Mr. Campbell’s poorly written piece closes with this wonderfully original, much-needed, timely, groundbreaking insight - he writes of Leafs fans:

“And then they wonder why people in Edmonton and Montreal laugh at them all the time.”

Oh do we wonder. Of the five or six Leaf Blogs out there, I can't think of any other topic we have covered more.

Consider PPP's five part series on the laughter coming from Alberta. Or Ninja's disturbingly prescient piece at Raking Leafs on what formal recognition of the Quebecois could mean for Habs fans who laugh at Leaf fans "tout le temps/ ce n'est pas une perte de temps" - amazing stuff coming from an American. And then there's the biggest one of all - Wardo's off-shoot blog the.fans.who.laugh.at.Leafsfans.club - far more popular than all of our sites combined.

For Leafs fan is there a more powerful or damning symbol for all of this than that famous La Vache Qui Rit label with the cow photoshopped into a Habs jersey? As Leafs Nation, we can't stop asking - the herd is clearly laughing at us, but why? WHY!?!?

Right.

Well, I certainly can’t speak for Leafs Nation, or my fellow Leaf bloggers, but I’ve never wondered why people in Edmonton and Montreal “laugh at us all the time" (if they even do). But I can give you a pile of reasons in about as much time as it took Campbell to assemble that mess of a post (i.e. about 45 seconds).

1. There’s a tremendous amount of provincialism in this fine country of ours. When I lived in Alberta (’98?), I was categorized as an “easterner” and was routinely assigned the blame for the National Energy Program (enacted when I was nine; I must have been the most powerful grade 4 student in North America – hell, if I had that kind of power I wouldn’t have messed around with Trudeau and federal price controls, I would have been far too busy that year making sure the Leafs drafted Jari Kurri, Steve Larmer, Bernie Nichols, Kelly Hrudey and Craig Ludwig); I was also nearly tossed from a cab for my alleged role in fixing federal elections; lectured on my ability to keep the masses from reaping the benefits of an elected senate and took heat for the majority of the CBC’s bad programming decisions. And people who had never been east of Lloydminister would often tell me how much they hated my home town (just imagine what they must think of Hamilton or what they might have shared if we knew each other better).
   
   
2. Folks resent having the Leafs on their TV every Saturday night and the blathering media machine that follows. (Bob Cole reminds me of my poor grandfather who, in his old age, often mistook replays for live action and would be amazed that teams could score identical goals back to back to back).
   
   
3. There’s an inverse relationship between MLSE's on-ice success and the strength of the franchise that many find disturbing. The Leafs haven’t won anything and likely won’t for some time, yet there we are, the dazed members of Leafs Nation, week-in week-out following the team like some sort of zombie convinced that this is the year the Leafs will win the cup. Really, this is our year.
   
   
4. When the Leafs are on the road, Leafs Nation can be a troubling house guest.
   
   
5. In all sports, there’s a team or teams that everyone loves to hate (Cowboys, Yankees, Bosox, LiverpoolMan U) and in hockey for most of the world it’s the Leafs.

Now, introspection isn't a reporter's best friend, but if the media ever wonder why the IBP are laughing at them all the time, they need look no further than Mr. Campbell.

What's the Sincerest Form of Flattery?

Hot off the press comes this nice story from Steve Simmons on, among other things, the ROI of the Leafs D and the fact that this team is supposed to be tougher to play against. Makes me wonder if he's a fan of mine or just a slow reader.

Bitter

I've decided I'm only going to watch the first two periods of Leaf games. Just like the 23 guys on the club, I'll celebrate the win at the 40 minute mark and then go do something that doesn't involve hockey.

PPP has his second segment posted comparing this year's Leafs against last year's in all major team categories. It will be very interesting (or galling) to see the comparison at the 30 game mark - JFJ may have signed that extension just in time. It's essential stuff - go check it out.

Will it be the Snow Line, the Millen Line or will a Beaupre write-in campaign strike? Don't forget to cast a vote to to name hockey's Mendoza line - the minimum save percentage required stay in the NHL...

Naming Rights

It's become widely accepted that the cut-off save percentage for a starting goalie is .900. If one drops below that mark (Mr. Raycroft, I'd like you to meet Mr. Gerber) the papers and fans will be calling for a trade, for the back-up to get his turn or for the GM's head (and sometimes all three).

But what is the goaltending equivalent to baseball's Mendoza line - that hypothetical minimum save percentage a goalie has to maintain to stay in the NHL? And, more importantly, shouldn't it be named after a goalie?

Thanks to readers' suggestions, I've nominated following list of goalies for your consideration as the future namesake of hockey's Mendoza line.

The goalie that's voted as exemplifying a career as a back-up*, somehow managing to stick with one team or another, will have the honour of being hockey's Mendoza Line.

Feel free to hit the comment button to make your drunken passionate case for your favourite marginal goalie (or to submit a write-in vote - I'm sure there are plenty of ideal candidates we've missed).

Name Hockey's Mendoza Line
	Millen .876 SV%
	Racicot .879 SV%
	Ing .859 SV%
	Bester .870 SV%
	Bernhardt .866 SV%
	Snow .892 SV%
	Garret .867 SV%
	Pang .865 SV%
	Healy .888 SV%
	Lalime .904 SV%
Free polls from Pollhost.com

*Or maybe you just want to stick it to one of the many ex-goalie mediots out there, that's cool too.

It's a Shame About Ray

Raycroft currently has a .901 save percentage, which puts him 27th in the NHL among goalies who've started 10 games or more.

Here's a look at Raycroft's save percentage on a game by game basis.
In the 12 games that he has posted a .900% save percentage or better the Leafs are 10-1-1.

In the 10 games Raycroft's been below .900, the Leafs are 1-7-2.

I know you can't win without putting the puck in the other teams net, but that's a pretty damning stat.

A note about the chart: The squiggly red line is the trend line, sadly pointing a bit south at the moment... Red bars are losses, blue bars are wins and dark blue bars are games decided by a shoot-out. The horizontal yellow marker is a Mendoza line of sorts - it marks the .900 save percentage point - a mark all starting goalies should be able to stay above. (There has to be a goalie we could name it after to give it a bit of a hockey flavour - any suggestions?)

Mediocre D

I was all set to post a snappy entry on the Leafs decreasing window for in-game success: they can't mount a comeback and they can't protect a lead, unfortunately the stats got in the way.

Leafs have the 5th best winning percentage when leading after the first period and the tenth best winning percentage when leading after the second period.

Although the way the Blue and White have been playing the last few weeks, it's the leading after the third period that we members of Leafs Nation should be concerned about.

=========

I posted earlier (ranted?) about the Leafs having the most expensive defence in the NHL. Well, the Leafs D are not the most expensive, but it is close.

Based on the data collected from NHL Team Salaries, the Leafs D are the second highest paid group in the league. The Leafs have allocated $18.708M in salary to their 7 D-men (McCabe, Kaberle, Kubina, Gill, Belak, Bell, White).

For that $18M the Leafs have given up 88 goals against, 26th overall in the NHL.

The LA Kings have the most expensive group of D-men in the league. They've spent $19.944M on their top 7: Blake, Norstrom, Tverdovsky, Miller, Sopel, Visnovsky, and Weaver.

The Kings, and that most expensive Defence in the league, are 29th in goals against giving up 97 goals in 29 games. They only have to get a little worse to catch the last place Flyers.

Best bang for the buck? The San Jose Sharks - fourth best goals against, fourth cheapest D.

(FWIW, a rough calculation of what an NHL team allocates on a complete set of D is $12.603 Million. Please note - this is a rough calculation: three teams have just six D listed; five teams have eight D and the balance - 22 teams - list 7 Dmen; totals didnt include injuries to Leopold, Berrard or Mark Stuart.)

The Big Comeback

I guess I should have googled before I posted that request for stats help re. New NHL v. Old NHL and leads holding up.

Jesse Rogers has done the math and it turns out there isn't much truth to the notion that in the New NHL no lead is safe (unless you happen to be wearing a Maple Leaf jersey while playing in the Meadowlands).

Here's the money quote from Mr. Rogers:

In the 2003-04 season, before the rule changes, the winning percentage of teams scoring the first goal was .678. Since the beginning of last season, that has only dropped to .666. In other words for every 1,000 games played pre-lockout, the team scoring first won 678 times; now that number is 666. That isn't much of a drop-off.

Even more interesting is the 3rd period come-from-behind win...a .151 winning percentage existed in 2003-'04. Now it's a whopping .156.

New NHL indeed.