Tomas Kaberle and the Process of Elimination

According to TSN, at least two teams have expressed an interest in acquiring Toronto Maple Leaf Tomas Kaberle and upwards of five teams may be in the hunt.

In discussing the potential return, Leafs GM Brian Burke told the Toronto Star, "We need to add a winger that can score, preferably with some size. And we need some secondary toughness. So those would be the areas we would try to address."

Given Burke's track record on following through on his proclamations (QV. his quest for Tavares, threatening to waive vets, promoting accountability while giving Toskala start after start) odds are the Leafs will move Kaberle for a defenceman and checking centre.

But let's give Burke the benefit of the doubt on this one and agree that the organization is looking for a winger that can score.

Sounds good, but who's out there?

In the spirit of my recent post on behavioural economics, Amos Tversky has written about a decision making strategy called "elimination by aspects" or EBA. The idea here is that in order to make an informed decision, decision-makers establish an overall goal and then narrow the range of choices by aspects (e.g. scoring, age profile, cost to acquire). Any alternatives that do not match the selected aspect are eliminated.

Essentially, EBA is making a decision by eliminations.

So how many scoring wingers are there for Burke to chose from?

In 2009-2011, there were a total of 178 forwards that scored at a 0.51 pts/game rate...let's start to narrow down the pool:

• 7 played less than 20 games (171)
• 67 are centres (104)
• 1 is a Leaf (103)
• 16 score at 1.0 pts per game or higher and will cost more than Kaberle and what the Leafs have in the cupboard (87)
• 12 are Unrestricted free agents (75)
• 16 have no-trade or no-movement clauses (59)
• 9 are 31 or older, which doesn't fit with the age profile that Burke often talks about (50)
• 3 fit Burke's profile, but are simply not going to happen: Vanek, Cammaleri, Tavares (47)

Obviously, these 47 players aren't the absolute list. Players with No-Trade and No-Movement clauses get traded all the time (well, maybe not from the Leafs). Burke may also be ok with acquiring an older player, or the Leafs may move Kaberle as part of a package to get a player with a higher points-per-game ratio. There are also players on here who, for many reasons - price to performance ratio (Bobby Ryan, I'm looking at you), their relative value to their club, etc. - are going to be difficult, if not impossible, to pry away from their team. There may also be prospects the Leafs have in mind that didn't play enough games, or put up enough points per game in limited experience and slipped under my radar.

With that caveat out of the way, here's my list of 47 scoring wingers, one of whom just might be wearing the blue and white in the next few weeks. The list has been sorted by team.

	PLAYER	TEAM	POS	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PPG
1	Bobby Ryan	ANA	R	81	35	29	64	9	0.79
2	Jussi Jokinen	CAR	L	81	30	35	65	3	0.8
3	RJ Umberger	CBJ	L	82	23	32	55	-16	0.67
4	Kristian Huselius	CBJ	L	74	23	40	63	-4	0.85
5	Jakub Voracek	CBJ	R	81	16	34	50	-7	0.62
6	Rene Bourque	CGY	L	73	27	31	58	7	0.79
7	Troy Brouwer	CHI	L	78	22	18	40	9	0.51
8	Kris Versteeg	CHI	L	79	20	24	44	8	0.56
9	Patrick Sharp	CHI	L	82	25	41	66	24	0.8
10	T.J. Galiardi	COL	L	70	15	24	39	6	0.56
11	Brandon Yip	COL	R	32	11	8	19	5	0.59
12	David Jones	COL	R	23	10	6	16	1	0.7
13	Chris Stewart	COL	R	77	28	36	64	4	0.83
14	Wojtek Wolski	PHX	L	80	23	42	65	21	0.81
15	James Neal	DAL	L	78	27	28	55	-5	0.71
16	Loui Eriksson	DAL	L	82	29	42	71	-4	0.87
17	Dustin Penner	EDM	R	82	32	31	63	6	0.77
18	DavidBooth	FLA	L	28	8	8	16	-3	0.57
19	DustinBrown	LAK	L	82	24	32	56	-6	0.68
20	Wayne Simmonds	LAK	R	16	24		40	22	0.51
21	JustinWilliams	LAK	R	49	10	19	29	3	0.59
22	Antti Miettinen	MIN	R	79	20	22	42	-2	0.53
23	Guillaume Latendresse	MIN	L	78	27	13	40	-3	0.51
24	Benoit Pouliot	MTL	L	53	17	11	28	8	0.53
25	Andrei Kostitsyn	MTL	L	59	15	18	33	1	0.56
26	Brian Gionta	MTL	R	61	28	18	46	3	0.75
27	DavidClarkson	NJD	R	46	11	13	24	3	0.52
28	Niclas Bergfors	NJD	R	81	21	23	44	-10	0.54
29	Patric Hornqvist	NSH	R	80	30	21	51	18	0.64
30	Matt Moulson	NYI	L	82	30	18	48	-1	0.59
31	Blake Comeau	NYI	R	61	17	18	35	-2	0.57
32	Kyle Okposo	NYI	R	80	19	33	52	-22	0.65
33	Milan Michalek	OTT	L	66	22	12	34	-12	0.52
34	ClaudeGiroux	PHI	R	82	16	31	47	-9	0.57
35	Radim Vrbata	PHX	R	82	24	19	43	6	0.52
36	Scottie Upshall	PHX	R	49	18	14	32	5	0.65
37	Ryane Clowe	SJS	L	82	19	38	57	0	0.7
38	Devin Setoguchi	SJS	R	70	20	16	36	0	0.51
39	David Perron	STL	L	82	20	27	47	-10	0.57
40	Brad Boyes	STL	R	82	14	28	42	1	0.51
41	David Backes	STL	R	79	17	31	48	-4	0.61
42	Steve Downie	TBL	R	79	22	24	46	14	0.58
43	MasonRaymond	VAN	L	82	25	28	53	0	0.65
44	Alexandre Burrows	VAN	L	82	35	32	67	34	0.82
45	Michael Grabner	VAN	R	20	5	6	11	2	0.55
46	Mikael Samuelsson	VAN	R	74	30	23>/s>	53	10	0.72
47	Eric Fehr	WSH	R	69	21	18	39	18	0.57