Leafs Trade Analysis: Two Loonies for a Twonie

On Sunday, Leafs GM Brian Burke pulled off two trades:

Vesa Toskala and Jason Blake to Anaheim for J.S. Giguere.

Matt Stajan, Niklas Hagman, Jamal Mayers and Ian White for Dion Phaneuf, Frederik Sjostrom and prospect Keith Aulie.

At this point, I've got way more questions than answers...

Anaheim

Giguere for Blake and Toskala is like a twonie for two loonies.

I’m glad Toskala and Blake are gone, but I’m not expecting anything from Giguere. He’s had below average numbers for two-seasons running and is unlikely to improve next year when there’s a further crackdown on the size of goaltending gear.

With little to no goaltending options on the UFA market this summer, Burke has ostensibly bought one more year of slightly below-average goaltending.

Dion Phaneuf

Dion Phaneuf hasn’t progressed as projected or in keeping with his (massive) paycheque.

His goal scoring production has declined every season he’s been in the NHL and he’s struggled the past two seasons.

Many in the game have noted that his play away from the puck is poor and has been resistant to changing his game.

Among NHL d-men, he’s currently 9th in goals scored, 69th in assists and 42nd in points. To put that in perspective, his 22 points put him in a tie with Francois Beauchemin.

On the D-side of the puck, his GA60 is a respectable 2.4, which puts him in the top third of NHL defencmen (73rd among the 212 D-men that have played a minimum 20+ games this year). On the Leafs that would place him behind both Beauchemin (2.13) and Komisarek (1.88).

And the Leafs get all of this for the incredible cap hit of $6.5M through 2014.

Wait.

That can’t be right.

Phaneuf is 73rd in GAON/60. 42nd in Points and he has the 8th highest cap hit among d-men in the league?!?

Wow.

Was Glen Sather a consultant to Sutter on that contract?

Cap Space Moving Forward: 2010-11

At $25M+ the Leafs have a whole lot of dollars tied up on six blue liners next season.

In net, the Leafs have $6M allotted for Giguere while Jonas Gustavsson is an RFA.

Up-front the Leafs have just four guys under contract guys (Kessel, Gustavsson, Sjostrom and Orr) and they’ll cost the club $10.1M in salary with a passel of RFAs and UFAs still to sort out.

Fold in the Darcy Tucker buy-out and the Leafs have $42M+ in committed salaries for 2010-11.

If the cap stays neutral, the Leafs have about $14M to sign 9 forwards and a back-up goalie, which averages out to about $1.4M per signing.

Clearly, something’s got to give here.

The big question, just like every year since the lock-out, is who gets moved from the Leafs blue-line to provide some help up front?

Player Development

Draft and develop has become a bit of a mantra in the NHL. The Leafs don’t really do the former and the latter - development - is where the fall-out from today’s deals could really hit this club.

In an effort to in-fill the forward lines and find some offence, the development curve for all of the Leafs youngsters just got a whole lot steeper.

Hanson, Bozak and Stalberg won’t have the luxury of a year in the “A” with spot duty on the Leafs to develop. They’ll be eating real minutes over the next 30 games.

Given all the holes to fill up front, and the limited resources to do so, there’s also a real chance Nazem Kadri gets a shot a next season right out of the OHL. No AHL development time for the London Knight (and a year of his entry level deal cashed in too).

Of course, the Leafs could run with veteran UFAs on one-year contracts to buy their kids more development time – while that's something I hope the Burke-Nonis brain trust explores, I don't see it happening (I got no proof, just what my guy gut says).

2012: AKA The fine print

Here comes the giant caveat: with the CBA set to expire in 2011, this whole issue of contract hits and cap room could quickly become moot. Phaneuf’s contract, and the Leafs’ salary cap situation, becomes eminently more manageable if there’s any type of luxury tax or an NBA-like luxury tax amnesty provision.

Until then, I'm treating the rest of this season as a 30 game exhibition schedule: the games don't count, it's all about evaluating talent.

Upcoming Dates in the Leafs' Calendar

With 11 pending UFAs and RFAs on the Leafs' roster (one or two of who might actually be tradeable) there are a few key dates Leaf fans should keep an eye on.

January 1, 2010 (yeah I know it was three weeks ago):

As of January 1, NHL teams can begin negotiating new deals ("extensions") for players on one-year contracts. Leaf players in this category include Gustavsson, MacDonald and Wallin.

I know I speak for many Leaf fans when I say that Burke better get Wallin's name on a long-term deal (in the SEL, KHL or working the counter selling fast food at Burkie's Dog House).

February 12, 2010 - Olympic trade freeze.

NHL rosters will be frozen for the duration of the corrupt multinational festival Olympics.

February 28, 2010 - Olympic trade freeze ends.

GMs are free to once again make blockbuster deals like Stefan Legein for Michael Ratchuk or Pascal Pelletier for Brendan Bell.

March 3, 2010 - NHL Trade deadline day.

If you're able to do the math here, you'll notice that NHL GMs have all of four days from the end of the Olympic roster freeze to the trade deadline to sort out their final moves of the year.

That means March 3 should make for a great day of TV for Leaf fans to find out:

• Which Leaf will land a 3rd rounder?
• Which underperfoming Leaf won't find a new home and won't get waived?
• Which assistant GM will botch the paperwork and see a deal get annulled?
• What former goon (now character guy) will the Leafs pick-up for a conditional 6th rounder?
• Who will be the first to say, "Sometimes the best deals are the ones you don't make."
• That yet another year has passed without a high pick being traded to bury a bad contract
• And no players were moved to help a team hit the cap floor

Trade deadline day has the potential to be almost as exciting as Arbor day, but without any of the moral underpinning.

Rattled by the Rush: A look at Kessel's Numbers

When rumours first surfaced that the Leafs were interested in Phil Kessel there seemed to be three big concerns:

• Would the Leafs overpay (Kaberle and Kadri);
• Was Kessel's above average goal production the result of playing with Marc Savard; and
• Was his shooting percentage sustainable?

I'll leave the matter of value and overpayment for another day (my thoughts on this are pretty well documented already).

The charge that Savard was the catalyst for much of Kessel's production was pretty much dismissed when Kessel potted 10 goals in his first fifteen games. A comprehensive video review of each and every one of Kessel's 2008-09 goals by Arhimedies over at Leafs Blog Pension Plan Puppets also punched a pretty big hole in any suggestion that Kessel was dependent on Savard.

The third concern, unfortunately, has emerged as a real issue at the half-way point of Kessel's first season with the Leafs.

In Kessel's breakout year in Boston, when he notched 36 goals (pro-rated 42G/82GP), his shooting percentage was 15.5% and his goals scored per 60 minutes was a very impressive 1.97. On average, he directed 3.1 shots per game at the opponent's net, and hit the net 71% of the time.

In his first 38 games in Toronto (small sample, I know) Kessel's on pace for 28 goals (pro-rated 32G/82GP) his shooting percentage is 8.7% and his goals scored per 60 minutes is down to 1.2. On average, he's directed 4.5 shots per game at the opponent's net, and he's hitting the net 68% of the time.

Also of note: Kessel is averaging 3 minutes more ice time per game in Toronto, yet his production has declined.

Or cleaned up in and put in a boring old chart, it looks like this:

	Boston	Toronto
TOI/G	16:33	19:48
PP TOI/G	2:22	3:37
Total Shots	216	171
Missed Shots	62	54
Shots on Goal	154	117
Accuracy	71%	68%
Shooting %	15.5%	8.7%
Goals	38	15
Goals/60	1.92	1.2

There are many possible explanations for Kessel's numbers in Toronto to be trending down:

1. His teammates aren't getting him the puck in prime scoring areas like Savard may have;


2. The lack of depth among the Leafs forwards means teams can key in on and defend Kessel;


3. His production on the power play has always been minimal. He's averaging 3:37 a night on the PP, that's 1:10 more perr game than he played in Boston and that extra minute is entirely non-productive ice-time;


4. He missed the first 11 games of the season recovering from off-season shoulder surgery;


5. Some combination of the top 4 plus others than I'm not clever enough to think of.

Regardless of the reason for the decline in his production, I have a feeling Kessel will improve his shooting percentage - both in terms of hitting the net and, more importantly, scoring. (Ironically, in a post populated by numbers, I base that on nothing more than gut. And as a cup-is-half-empty Leaf fan, it feels really weird to be predicting something good.)

One way to get Kessel jump started might be to re-allocate his ice-time.

Kessel is so unproductive on the PP it seems to me he should skip the PP and take extra shifts at evens (or at least move to PP2).

**Based on a couple of emails this post generated, let me be clear here: I am not questioning Kessel or saying he's a problem or part of a problem. I honestly find these stats interesting, I was genuinely surprised when I pulled the numbers this afternoon. I really hope he puts up huge numbers in the remaining 32 games of the season and well into the future.**

Brian Burke Can't Even Manage Expectations

Brian Burke says a lot of things.

He’d pull the trigger on Kessel again.

Ron Wilson’s job is safe.

“Our goal is to make the playoffs; that's our intention. We think this team is good enough.”

I don’t know if I believe a word of it.

There are four simple words that Burke might want to take under consideration moving forward: under promise, over deliver.

Not only are those four words a pretty good maxim, they may also the one thing the Cliff Fletcher did right in his second go ‘round with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I had all the patience in the world for the Leafs to bottom out, shed the JFJ remnants and bad contracts, get younger, get deeper, and hopefully get better.

But if the new GM doesn’t have the patience for a re-build – and sacrificing two firsts a second and a third is proof positive of that - why should fans?

I haven’t been writing much about this team because there’s not much to write about. Going into the season, it was clear that the PK and goaltending needed to be addressed in order for this team to have any sort of chance, never mind success. Neither of these shortcomings were dealt with and the team continues to play some ugly hockey.

How ugly? Even if the team manages to go .500 the rest of the way (a tall order) the Leafs will finish with their lowest point total since the lock-out and their worst season in over 10 years.

To put that in perspective, Wilson and Burke are on target to ice a team that finished 9 points back of the worst team ever assembled by JFJ.

"We believe we're good enough this year to make the playoffs."

Sorry Mr. Burke, you're not even close.

Everyday I read the book

I hope my regular readers (both of you) will forgive me as this is not a hockey post - although if you look closely you will find two, maybe three, books about hockey. This is a post about reading.

Inspired by my pal Peter Simpson and his annual book entry at The Big Beat, I decided to keep track of all the books I read (or tried to read) in 2009.

Here they are: forty-seven non-fiction and five fiction titles.

Unlike Peter, rather than list them chronologically, I’ve listed mine with the favourites up front, the good but not great in the middle, and the ones I couldn’t finish (or wish I hadn’t finished) at the end.

I’ve also tucked in a comment or two about the book…some are blank as there just wasn’t much to say.

Favourites (alphabetically)

1. 1,000 Recordings to Hear Before You Die, Tom Moon
Often songs or musicians can serve as a gateway into other related genres, bands, or tracks. This book helps connect those dots and serves up some great suggestions, selections and insights. Tom Moon has a website and there are two great podcasts with Tom available over at All Songs Considered that you can listen to here and here.

2. Alphabet Juice, Roy Blount jr.
I almost didn’t make it past the introduction but I’m sure glad I did. An A to Z compendium of insights, tricks, tips and examples of great (and not so great) writing.

3. The Big Sort, Bill Bishop
Maybe the best book I read this year. A fascinating look at how communities self-sort and what it means for culture and politics.

4. Cultural Amnesia, Clive James
I have to admit I haven’t quite finished this book yet, but I know I will. Forty essays about great thinkers, writers and artists of the 20th Century.

5. Farm City, Novella Carpenter
A true story about a woman who starts a farm on an abandoned lot in inner-city Oakland. I was so moved by this book that I bought 1/3 of a hog from a local farmer and may even take an interest in my wife's garden this spring. I hope to never buy grocery store meat again.

6. How Fiction Works, James Wood
Simply brilliant. I don’t even read much fiction anymore and I wanted to just curl up inside this slender book. Wonderful.

7. The Making of the Atomic Bomb, Richard Rhodes
Not my usual fare or area of interest but it's brilliantly done. An in-depth look at the atom from the turn of the century to the dropping of atomic bombs along with the scientists who made it all happen. Won a slew of well deserved awards.

8. Netherland, Joseph O’Neill
One of just five pieces of fiction I read this year and miles away the best of the bunch. I read this in about three sittings and then asked my wife to read it so I’d have someone to discuss it with.

9. Not Quite What I Was Planning, Larry Smith, Rachel Fershleiser
Six word memoirs – tougher than it sounds (d’oh that’s 7 words!)

10. Orwell in Spain, George Orwell
Orwell’s description of being shot and, presumably, dying is one of the best pieces of writing I have ever encountered. I don’t like to mark a book, but that’s the type of passage that calls for a bent corner and marginalia.

11. Pictures at a Revolution: The Birth of the New Hollywood, Mark Harris
A very cool look at the five films nominated for the 1968 Best Picture Oscar, their origins and the impact they had on Hollywood. Enough factoids in here to get you through any dinner party (Robert Redford and Candace Bergen were originally tipped to play Benjamin Braddock and Elaine in The Graduate).

12. The Visual Display of Quantitative Information, Edward Tufte
I wish I was this smart.

13. World War Z, Max Brooks
A brilliant concept, smashing execution and loads of fun. Only downside is my wife is very tired of hearing my plans for when the zombies come.

Glad I read ‘em (almost alphabetically)

14. The Billionaire’s Vinegar, Benjamin Wallace
American billionaire buys centuries old wine – was it forged? It's clear who might have forged them, so call this one a how-dunnit?

15. Double Helix, J. Watson
Amazingly candid book about the race to discover DNA.

16. Eisenhower: The President, Stephen Ambrose
Formerly a blind-spot in my historical knowledge (I was inspired to read this after finishing The Making of the Atomic Bomb).

17. Farewell my Subaru, Doug Fine
Interesting story of a guy who moves off the grid.

18. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, Nassim Nicholas Taleb
I wish I was this smart.

19. Foul Ball: My Life and Hard Times Trying to Save an Old Ballpark, Jim Bouton
Corrupt small-town politics get in the way of minor league baseball dreams.

20. The Gay Telease Reader, Gay Telease
A wonderful collection of great essays by Telease. “Frank Sinatra Has a Cold” is tremendous.

21. The Great Derangement: A Terrifying True Story of War, Politics, and Religion at the Twilight of the American Empire, Matt Taibbi
Hard to believe these stories are true. His writings on Congress are dispiriting; on religion sadly funny.

22. The Greatest Story Ever Sold, Frank Rich
Like his great Sunday New York Times column but in book form.

23. The Guinea Pig Diaries, A.J. Jacobs
Big fan of Mr. Jacobs' books. A collection of his essays involving personal experiments like radical truth, posing for a naked photo shoot, and outsourcing elements of his personal and professional life.

24. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences, John Allen Paulos
I’m still innumerate, although a little less so.

25. King of Russia, Dave King
Former NHL Coach spends a season coaching in Russia. Interesting look at the KHL and Russian culture.

26. The Long Tail, Chris Anderson
A very cool examination of the distribution of goods.

27. Lush Life, Richard Price
Another well crafted police procedural from one of the best.

28. The New Asian Hemisphere, Kishore Mahbubani

29. Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell

30. The Rest is Noise: Listening to the Twentieth Century, Alex Ross
I have no idea why I ordered this book from the library (I don't even remember doing so). Glad I did as it was a very interesting read.

31. Retrofitting Suburbia, Ellen Dunham-Jones and June Williamson
Ideas for what to do with those big box stores and the pod-style planning of suburbia.

32. The Road to Hockeytown, Jim Devellano (with Roger Lajoie)
I reviewed it here.

33. Strip Tease, Carl Hiaasen
Not a bad book, but more importantly a good lesson: I have to remember to pack more books for the cottage next summer.

34. The Twenty-One Balloons, William Pene Dubois
Inspired to read this after seeing Pixar’s Up (yeah, I cried). Some really clever stuff going on in here. Read this with my six year old daughter.

35. The New Game: How Hockey Saved Itself, Steve Paikin
The intro contains some of the best writing on what it is to be a beer league hockey player.

36. The Real Price of Everything, Michael Lewis
I only read the material by Lewis (this thing is bigger than a cinder block). Lewis could write the phone book and I’d read it, he's one of the best writers out there.

37. The Last Tycoons, William Cohan
Who knew the melt-down of Wall Street Firm Bear Sterns and the credit crunch could produce a page-turner?

38. The Power Makers: Steam, Electricity, and the Men Who Invented Modern America, Maury Klein
A very (almost too) detailed look at the evolution of power and technology from steam to the modern era.

39. Suburban Nation: The Rise of Sprawl and the Decline of the American Dream, Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk, Andres Duany, Jeff Speck
Some cool stuff about Markham, Ontario and more of the usual new urbanism theories.

40. A Great Idea at the Time: The Rise, Fall, and Curious Afterlife of the Great Books, Alex Beam
An interesting look at the University of Chicago/Encyclopedia Britannica's "Great Books of Western Civilization" a 54 volume set (yup, 54 volumes) that sold millions of copies in the 1950s and 60s and then pretty much disappeared.

41. The Fix, Declan Hill
An investigative journalist's examination of allegations of match fixing in the world of professional soccer. Great topic, sadly it's told with the tone of a boring CBC documentary.

Meh (I think this is in chronological order)

42. The City in History, Lewis Mumford
Mumford's luddite tendencies were grating. I much preferred The Great Cities in History by John Julias Norwich and Cities by John Reader.

43. Alpha Dogs: The Americans Who Turned Political Spin into a Global Business, James Harding
Some interesting stuff, but too much emphasis on the whole “great men” version of history

44. Who’s Your City? Richard Florida
I think he keeps writing the same book. They're not getting better.

45. My White Planet, Mark Anthony Jarman
I wanted to like this more than I did. I’m a huge fan of his earlier work.

46. The Four Hour Work Week, Tim Ferris
Primary lesson of this book is time management - finishing this book wasn't worth my time.

47. Leafs Abomination, Michael Grange and David Feschuk
My review can be found here.

48. Snark, David Denby
One of the most misguided books I read this year. Humour is far too subjective a topic to take so seriously.

49. Deer Hunting with Jesus, Joe Bageant
200 pages of being hectored by a 60 year old who thinks he’s smarter than everyone else. What fun.

50. Spain: A Culinary Road Trip, Mario Batali
TV series was great. Book, not so much.

51. Room for Thought: Rethinking Home and Community Design, Avi Friedman
No fault of the author, but this was not quite what I was hoping for.

52. The Age of Entanglement: When Quantum Physics was Reborn, Louisa Gilder
If you want to read imaginary conversations between big-name physicists, this is for you…

Gift Ideas for the Hockey Fan

With Christmas all but upon us, I thought I'd put up a quick list of gift suggestions for the hockey fan in your life.

It's not all about me today, this isn't altruism to get in Santa's good books. I fear if I don't post this at least one poor Leaf fan is going to end up with that middling book Leafs Abomination under their tree.

Sports Books

King of Russia, by Dave King
This book, co-written by the Globe and Mail's Eric Duhatschek, is pretty much a diary of King's year spent as a coach in the Russian KHL. It's a really interesting look at hockey and the cultural differences King encounters in Russia. Former Leafs Igor Korolev and Dimitri Yushkevich played for King that season in Russia, as did current Leaf Nikolai Kulemin.

The Road to Hockeytown by Jim Devellano (with Roger Lajoie)
I posted a full reviewed of the book here. A very interesting look at how high school drop-out Devellano became a very successful sports executive and a key piece of the multiple Stanley Cup wins in Detroit. My full review is here.

The New Game: How Hockey Saved Itself, Steve Paikin
Steve Paikin interviews numerous players and hockey men about the post-lockout changes to the game and the impact of each. It may be a bit dated at this point, but Paikin's superlative interview skills make it worth the read. The intro contains some of the best writing on what it is to be a beer league hockey player.

Foul Ball: My Life and Hard Times Trying to Save an Old Ballpark, by Jim Bouton
Like his must-read book on the 1969 MLB Season, this newer work is a day by day diary detailing Bouton's efforts to buy a minor league ball team and restore an aging ball park in New England. Along the way he encounters corrupt small-town politics, ugly media relationships, and some rather scary eocological issues. Bouton is a great storyteller and finds humour in the least likely situations. A sad, but fun, read.

The Fix, Declan Hill
As fresh as the headlines, this book is a very in-depth look at gambling and allegations of match fixing in professional soccer. Hill is an investigative journalist who brings a through approach to the book. Could do with a bit better pacing and story telling but it's worth the read. The NHL has a very minor role here, touching on the ties between Russian NHLers and organized crime.

Netherland, Joseph O’Neill
This book is about sports in the same way Jaws was about fishing. The game of cricket gets a lot of play here and is central to the plot, but that's not why I'm suggesting it. I'm not much of a fiction reader, but this was one of the best, if not the best, book I read this year. A beautfiul post-colonial retelling of Gatsby.


Fun Stuff

A great idea for a stocking stuffer or a quick gift for a friend, your dad, etc. is a Toronto Maple Leafs key chain.

Wholesalekeychain has a huge huge assortment to chose from and if your dad, son, mum, brother, door man, etc. isn't a Leaf fan (hard to belive I know) there are many other types available including automotive, sports, Disney, and even game and toy keychains.

They even have the ideal keychain - a Leaf logo with a bottle opener - a perfect way to get through those annual January/February losing streaks.

Other Leaf keychains can be found here. Last year we gave my mum and mother in-law digital key chains loaded with photos of my favourite Leafs kids and they wre a big hit.

Wholesale keychains has kindly made three Leaf keychains available as a give-away. The first three people that email me the correct answer to, "Which Toronto Maple Leaf holds the team record for most career playoff points by a defenceman." get a cool Leafs key chain.

Puck Attax

Topps has come out with a new hockey game called Puck Attax. It's like a very simple hybrid of two of my favourite childhood games - stratomatic football and stratego.

The two player card game takes place on a rink shaped game board with each team selecting puck shaped cards that feature an NHL player. Each player has an offensive and defensive rating. Players take turns flipping cards, if the offensive ranking is higher than the defensive ranking it's a goal; if it's lower, no goal. Play goes through three periods with the higher scoring team taking the win. If it's tied, there actually is a shoot-out round (as my feelings on the shootout are well known, I make my kids play another period of hockey to settle the game).

Additional card packs are also available.

My kids, who are a bit younger, quite like the playing cards and will take a pile to play a version of War.

Topps has kindly made a set of Puck Attax available for a reader. First reader to email me at bitter37@gmail.com will get a set.

Matt Stajan: Putting a Price on #14

Matt Stajan is having a career year playing on a line with Phil Kessel.

Stajan's emergence comes at an interesting time. As a pending UFA in a contract year one has to wonder if the Leafs can afford to keep him or, given his chemistry with Kessel, can they afford to let him go?

One unintended consequence of landing Kessel could very well be Stajan getting priced out of the Leafs' plans.

Boxcars

Before Kessel was healthy enough to join the Leafs, Stajan was putting up points at an 0.58 per game (ppg) rate. Good for a 48 point season. Since being given the plumb assignment of centering Kessel, his production has nearly doubled to a very impressive 0.98 ppg. Pairing up with Kessel has put Stajan on pace for 65 points with career highs in both goals and assists.

Determining Value

I have no idea what transpires between players, agents and GMs, but with Stajan on pace for 65 points this year, all signs point to a hefty raise. Factor in a thin crop of UFA centres – demand exceeding supply – and it's a safe bet that Stajan will be Oprah rich.

In order to get an idea of the compensation Stajan might be in line for, I took a look at the types of contracts signed by Stajan's peers in 2009, that is unrestricted free agent forwards, in their 20s, that scored in the 50 to 65 point band. Here's a quick look at Stajan's comparables:

Nik Antropov, career high 59 points – signed a $4M/year deal in ATL
Johan Franzen, career high 59 points – signed a $3.95M/year deal in DET
Travis Zajac, career high 62 points - signed a $3.88M/year deal in NJ
Tumomo Ruutu, career high 54 points - signed a $3.8M/year deal in CAR
Ryan Clowe, career high 52 points – signed a $3.5M/year deal in SJ.

Stajan has already outpointed Ruutu and Clowe and this season he will likely outpoint the totals put up by Antropov, Zajac and Franzen in their contract years.

Given the comparables, don't be surprised to see Stajan looking for a contract in the $3.5M+/year range this summer.

Who’s Driving the Bus?

If Kessel is generating the bulk of Stajan’s points (and all signs point to this being so: Stajan’s ppg nearly doubled since joining Kessel and he has countless assists from down near his own goal line) two questions immediately come to mind:

1. Can Stajan be replaced at a cheaper rate than the expected $3.5M+/year?
2. Should the Leafs commit salary and term to a player that isn’t generating the stats he's being rewarded for?

In terms of replacement value, it’s not just about keeping salary dollars for UFAs this summer. A potential Stajan deal is about cap dollars, cap space and flexibility for the life of the contract. $3.5 to $4M may not seem like a heavy cap hit to carry, but how many Leaf fans would love to see Finger ($3.5M) and Blake ($4M) moved?

As Eliotte Friedman noted in his most recent 30 Thoughts:

One GM told me that if you're going to sign a player to a long-term, big-money deal, he'd better be three things: critical to your success, consistently healthy and, most importantly, extremely self-motivated.

As much as I'm eating crow over the Kessel deal (I didn’t, and still don't, like the deal even though Kessel has looked fantastic for the Leafs) Kessel remains a rather soft player. Boston has effectively neutralized him in two games by playing smothering, tough hockey. I fully expect that this style would be SOP if the Leafs ever make the post-season.

In light of this, there are a few downsides to keeping Stajan as the Leafs #1 centre:

1. Stajan is not the guy you run 20+ minutes a night against tough competition. He’s not going to help shut-down the bigger pivots in the east;
2. On the other side of the puck, he’s not going to fight through smothering, tough, defence to generate points;
3. With Grabovski already signed as the #2 centre, can the Leafs succeed over the long-term, and in the post-season, with softer players centering the top two lines?
4. To Friedman's point, is Stajan the right type of player to build around or do the Leafs need to focus what assets they have – salary, term, the trading of spare parts and pending UFAs – to acquire a more physical or grittier player than can make some room for Kessel?

VORP

In terms of replacement value, there are always going to be bona fide NHL players looking for a short-term deal to stay in the game. Afinogenov signed for $800k, Moore for $1.1M. Peverley got picked off waivers. I think all 3 would put up Stajanesque numbers if given prime minutes with Kessel.

If there are other centres available who can produce alongside Kessel for less than $3.5M/year, trade Stajan for whatever you can get.

If no other viable options are available, or if you believe Stajan is a key part of the medium term success of the team, get Stajan’s name on a contract.

If I were GM

My tendency would be to let Kessel continue to inflate Stajan's stats for the rest of the season to see what the return for Stajan is at the trade deadline.

If the price is right, I'd move Stajan.

I'd also consider taking a page out of the St. Louis Blues playbook and move Stajan for picks at the deadline and look at re-signing him come July 1.

If Stajan is willing to take a home town discount (less than $3M/year or a very short term deal) I'd get his name on a contract.

The cap makes the NHL an efficiency contest. Elite teams lock-up their superstars and round out the rosters with players who are outperforming their contracts. Personally, I don't think Stajan fits either of these categories.

With 16 pending UFAs and RFAs on the Leafs extended roster and just 59 days between the January 1st opening of contract renegotiations (CBA 50.5 F iv) and the March 3trade deadline it's going to be an interesting few months for Burke and the Leafs.

Stajan may be the most intriguing challenge Burke has.