Showing posts with label New York Islanders. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New York Islanders. Show all posts

Monday, June 21, 2010

Kaberle and the Cat

Long serving Toronto Maple Leaf Tomas Kaberle's no-trade clause has an interesting wrinkle - it includes a short window each summer where the Leafs can trade him without his approval. This window opens on July 1 and runs to mid-August [or earlier/ later depending on the source]. It's very likely that Kaberle will be moved when his trade window opens, consider:

  • What little organizational depth the Leafs have is on the blue line;
  • In order to compete, the team needs to add quality forwards;
  • Kaberle's age profile doesn't quite fit with the Leafs (hoped for) window of opportunity; and
  • Kaberle seems to be the only asset of value on the roster that's even somewhat expendable.
I've been trying to think of an equivalent deal from the Leafs' past and I'm coming up short.

The Leafs have turned over their roster many times in the three decades that I've been following them but it's not often that such a long-serving player, drafted by the club, is so transparently put in position of waiting on a trade.

In terms of parallels, the only situation I can think of is Felix "the cat" Potvin.

Potvin and Kaberle's CVs cover some similar ground...

The Cat was drafted by the Blue and White and played eight seasons in Toronto after winning the starter's job over Hall of Fame goalie Grant Fuhr.

In his eight seasons as a Leaf, Potvin was a member of the NHL all-rookie team in 1993 and a finalist in the 1993 Calder voting. He made the NHL All Star team twice, led the NHL in goals-against in 1996-97 and had the best goals-against average in 1992-93. In his first full year as a Leaf, he backstopped the Leafs all the way to the Conference Finals.

Kaberle made the club as a surprise rookie and in his 10 seasons as a Leaf was a four time all-star. In his first full year as a Leaf, the team went all the way to the Conference Finals.

In 1998, the signing of UFA goalie Curtis Joseph created a log-jam in nets, making Felix expendable. After just five starts, Potvin left the Leafs in frustration and was AWOL for five weeks before being traded.

The signings of Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin, along with the emergence of Luke Schenn, created a log-jam on the Leafs' blue line, making one Leafs' D expendable. The odd man out appears to be Kaberle.

Potvin, it was claimed, was never the same after a cheap goal that came late in a game against the St. Louis Blues who were leading the league at the time. An Al MacInnis slap shot from out near centre ice beat Potvin over his glove, the Leafs lost the game and Potvin lost his mojo.

Kaberle, it has often been claimed, was never the same after a cheap hit by New Jersey Devil Cam Janssen.

In the end, Potvin went to the Islanders for former top draft pick Bryan Berard. The Islanders felt that Berard's offense would never make up for the defensive deficiencies in his game. The Leafs were looking to add more youth to their system and thought their coach, former defencemen Pat Quinn, was perfectly situated to help Berard develop into a top flight defenceman. Tragically, Berard's career was derailed by an errant high stick.

If, and when, Kaberle is moved in the next few weeks, in keeping with his similarities to Potvin, I wouldn't be surprised if the return to the Leafs is once again a flawed young prospect with lots of upside.

I do hope that a Kaberle trade has a happier ending than the Potvin deal for both the Leafs and whomever it is that they acquire.



Saturday, May 23, 2009

The Cost of Trading Up

When asked about his plans for the upcoming NHL draft, GM Brian Burke was about as circumspect and quiet as a six year old kid who’s had three espressos, two helpings of cake, and was on his way to get his first puppy.

Burke claims he wants John Tavares and he doesn’t care who knows it.

According to the roughly 4,268 media experts assigned to cover the Leafs, the cost of moving up in the draft from Toronto’s #7 slot to #1 or #2 varies from the Leafs’ first and second round picks to RFA Mikhail Grabovski to a package of Tomas Kablerle and Luke Schenn (that’s one way to cover the waterfront).

A juicy sub-plot to all of this has Tampa’s money woes hooking up with the Leafs deep pockets in a match made in hard-cap heaven. The most common rumour has Ryan Malone and his $17M contract as the lead item in a Leafs-Bolts swap.

Given the broad range of predictive costs for the Leafs to move up, I thought I’d take a look at first round picks traded over the past ten years to see what type of package it has traditionally required to move into Tavares territory.

The 1999 draft is a great place to start as it’s the draft where Burke made a series of moves to land the Sedins. Of note, the 4th overall pick in ’94 was traded so many times that the Rangers really should have drafted a relative of Gary “Suitcase” Smith.

Here are the trades involving high first round picks that I could find (I tried to keep it to the top 10ish draft picks). It’s certainly not an exhaustive or complete list by any means, but it hopefully provides some context and relative historical costs for a team looking to move from the seventh pick to first or second overall…

Canucks AcquireChicago Acquires
1999 1st round pick (4th overall)

2000 1st round pick (11th overall)
Bryan McCabe


Canucks AcquireLightning Acquires
1999 1st round pick (1st overall)1999 1st round pick (4th overall)
1999 3rd round picks (75 and 88th)

Thrashers AcquireCanucks Acquire
1999 1st round pick (1st overall)1999 1st round pick (2nd overall)
2000 conditional 3rd round pick

Rangers AcquireLightning Acquire
1999 1st round pick (4th overall)2000 1st round pick (8th overall)
2000 3rd round pick (74th overall)
Dan Cloutier
Niklas Sundstrom

Flames AcquireRangers Acquire
1999 1st round pick (11th overall)
Marc Savard
1999 1st round pick (9th overall)
1999 3rd round pick
Jan Hlavac

Islanders AcquireLigthning Acquires
2000 1st round pick (5th overall)
2000 4th round pick (105th overall)
2000 7th round pick (202nd overall)

Kevin Weekes
Kristian Kudroc
2001 2nd round pick (31st overall)


Avalanche AcquireCarolina Acquires
2000 1st round pick (14th overall)
2000 2nd round picks (47th, 63rd)
Noalan Pratt

Sandis Ozolinsh
2000 2nd round pick (32nd overall)


Senators AcquireIslanders Acquire
2001 1st Round Pick (2nd overall)
Zdeno Chara
Bill Muckalt
Alexei Yashin

Columbus Blue Jackets AcquireFlorida Panthers Acquire
2001 1st round pick (1st overall) 2002 1st round pick (3rd overall)
Option to swap 2003 1st round picks

Philadelphia AcquiresLightning Acquire
2002 1st round pick (4th overall)Ruslan Fedetenko
2002 2nd round picks (34th and 52nd)

Florida AcquiresCalgary Acquires
2002 1st round pick (9th)2002 1st round pick (10th)
2002 4th round pick (99th)

Florida AcquiresRangers Acquire

2002 1st round pick (10th)
2002 2nd round pick (40th)
2003 4th round pick (116th)
Igor Ulanov
Filip Novak

Pavel Bure2002
2nd round pick (33)

Philadelphia AcquiresPhoenix Acquires
2003 1st round pick (11th overall)
2002 second round pick (52nd)
Daymond Langkow

Penguins AcquireFlorida Acquires
2003 1st round pick (1st overall)
2003 3rd round pick (73rd)
2003 1st round pick (3rd overall)
2003 2nd round pick (55th)

Carolina AcquiresBlue Jackets Acquire
2004 1st round pick (4th overall)2004 1st round pick (8th overall)
2004 2nd round pick (59th overall)

San Jose AcquiresAtlanta Acquires
2005 1st round pick (8th overall)2005 1st round pick (12th overall)
2005 2nd round pick (49th overall)
2005 7th round pick (207th overall)

Rangers AcquireAtlanta Acquires
2005 1st round pick (12th overall)2005 1st round pick (16th overall)
2005 2nd round pick (41st overall)

San Jose AcquiresToronto Maple Leafs Acquire
2007 1st round pick (13th overall)
2007 2nd round pick (44th overall)
2009 4th round pick
Vesa Toskala
Mark Bell

San Jose AcquiresSt. Louis Acquires
2007 1st round pick (9th overall)2007 1st round pick (13th overall)
2007 2nd round pick (44th overall)
2008 3rd round pick (87th overall)

Islanders AcquireToronto Maple Leafs Acquire
2008 1st round pick (7th overall)
2008 3rd round pick (68th overall)
2009 2nd round pick
2008 1st round pick (5th overall)

Nashville AcquiresIslanders Acquire
2008 1st round pick (7th overall)2008 1st round pick (9th overall)
2008 2nd round pick (40th overall)

What can we learn from all of these trades?

  • That it’s a shame Burke can’t call on GMs such as Mike Milbury (man, that Yashin trade looks even worse with time), Rick Dudley (a 5th overall for Kevin Weekes and a 4th for Ruslan Fedetenko?) or good old JFJ (Toskala and Bell for a 1st, 2nd and a 4th.)

  • Burke needs to talk Sandis Olzonish out of retirement. He’s the only guy on the list who was traded twice for a top 10 pick

  • With all the variables involved (depth of draft, rank of picks exchanged, organizational need) it's difficult to determine a cost for the Leafs to move up into the top two, but historically the cost has been a swap of first round pick plus some combination of 2nd and 3rd round picks and lesser quality players

  • Kaberle and/or Schenn seems to be an overpayment to get into the Tavares/Hedman sweepstakes.
The bigger challenge for Burke may be the off-ice side of the deal. Both the Isles and Bolts are having financial issues. The economic decline and shrinking salary cap means high draft picks and young prospects are more valuable than ever.

With the Isles potentially on the move, in need of a marquee player, and holding the #1 overall draft pick for the first time since 2000 (and just the fourth time in franchise history) I doubt that there’s a deal to be made in Nassau County.

Tampa and that number 2 pick may be a different story...I just hope if a deal is made it's along the lines of the Penguins - Panthers deal in 2003 or the Canes-CBJ trade in 2004.

**update**
It just struck me that when Burke traded up from from 11th to 4th in 1999, he dealt a promising young defenceman who had been acquired by the previous GM. How long until we see Simmons, WCH or Cox weigh in with a "history repeats" piece with Schenn as the cornerstone of Burke's draft day manouverings, just as McCabe was in 1999?