SELL!
When the Leafs resume play on January 27th there will be exactly one month until the NHL trade deadline.
That’s one month for the Leafs to figure out if they’re buyers, sellers or if once more they’re going to make a series of useless, lateral moves.
The Leafs may be tied for the 8th and final playoff spot, but they’ve also played more games than their competition. If you look at winning percentage, the Leafs currently sit 11th in the East (and 22nd overall in the NHL – way to go MLSE!)
1. Buffalo .714
2. New Jersey .656
3. Atlanta .620
4. Montreal .602
5. Ottawa .580
6. Carolina .560
7. Pittsburgh .543
8. Tampa Bay .540
9. Boston .522
10. New York .521
11. Toronto .510
12. Washington .490
Presuming it will take 92+ points to qualify for the post-season, the Leafs will have to post at minimum 42 points in their next 33 games. That’s about a .636 winning percentage, something that I just don’t think this club is capable of, especially if you look at the Leafs’ performance so far this year.
Breaking the season to date into 10 game blocks, here’s how the Leafs have fared this year:
1 – 10 .550% (4-3-3)
11 – 20 .750 (7-2-1)
21-30 .250 (2-7-1)
31-40 .450 (4-5-1)
40-49 .555 (5-4-0)
While the Leafs did manage to real off a great streak in games 11 through 20, they followed that up with their worst play of the season. In fact, their best 30 game stretch produced just 13 wins and 31 points.
If the Leafs play at that pace (their best of the season) they’ll finish the year with about 83 points.
That’s nowhere good enough to qualify for the post season.
Considering their erratic play to date, a winning percentage of .636% just doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Factor in long-term injuries to Wellwood (35 points in 31 games), Peca (without him the PK fell from a dismal 17th in the league to an atrocious 25th) and a fracture to Tucker’s foot and the odds of the Leafs stringing together a serious winning streak seem about as likely as Antropov threatening Doug Jarvis’ 964 game iron man record.
Looking at this, I have one-word for Mr. Ferguson – sell.
I’m not saying tank it.
I’m not saying the Leafs should play soft, play small, not compete.
I am saying it’s time for Ferguson to look at the assets that are on this club that have the potential to walk for nothing in the off-season, to look at the big picture of where this club needs to be to seriously challenge in the post-season and to move these assets now.
If Ferguson wants to be the GM of the big club, it’s time for him to show that he’s capable of doing something grander than Tellqvist for a fourth rounder or Perrot for a sixth and that he’s smarter than, oh say trading a top ranked goaltending prospect for a guy who can’t crack the top 30 in goals against or save percentage.*
Say goodbye to UFAs O'Neill, Tucker, Peca, Antropov, Green, Battaglia, Devereaux, re-stock the draft cupboard and let the kids play.
*For those of you keeping score out there, here’s how Raycroft stacks up against Legace, a guy the Leafs could have had for half the salary while keeping Rask in the fold:
Goals Against: Legace 2.69 18th; Raycroft 3.10 31st
Save Percentage: Legace .907% 21st; Raycroft .892% 36th
Nice work JFJ!
