A White Sports Coat

Once you told me long ago, to the dance with me you'd go. Now you've changed your mind it seems, someone else will hold my dreams...

I have to say I’m really tired of all the talk surrounding Mats Sundin. If people want to blame a player for not waiving a no trade clause, look no further than Pavel Kubina.

Kubina allegedly agreed to waive his NTC, only to renege after the Senators game. Fletcher speaks to it in his news conference (available here) and again during his phoner with Bob McCowan, Steven Brunt and Neil Smith on the Fan590 (available as an MP3 here - full warning, this link has crashed my computer so please proceed with caution).

Kubina has since come out and claimed it was all a misunderstanding - perhaps he thought Fletcher was talking about a fantasy hockey trade in their keeper pool...gotta think Kubina is the first man traded when the window opens in his no-trade clause on July 1.

Want another black hat or two to vent on? I'll see that Kubina and raise you a JFJ and MLSE. I’m not sure who was the architect and who was the general contractor of this mess (and I’m not sure that it matters) but if either had an ounce of competence the re-build would have started as early as the end of the lock-out and certainly no later than last year’s trade deadline.

Had Tucker and McCabe been dealt when they were impending UFAs, Leafs Nation would be talking about the up and coming kids in the system and whether or not Mats would be sticking around to play with the emerging young talent.

Instead, Sundin’s reputation has been questioned, the team is still saddled with four NTCs, four more years of 11 goal scorer Jason Blake at $4M a year and nearly $5M tied up in Raycroft and Bell* never mind the number of picks that have been burned to find a competent goalie.

Bottom line: managerial incompetence, not Sundin, is the real issue here and Leaf fans shouldn't lose sight of that.

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My thoughts on the Leaf Trades (in 35 words or less) have been posted over at Slap Shots in the NYT. You can find the Belak deal here and the Kilger and Gill deals here.

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Best trade deadline print coverage is hands-down in the Globe. Brunt files a great piece on the absurdity of JFJ, and Shoaltsy follows with a good summary of Fletcher's remarks and what it might mean for the Leafs.

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With the trade deadline out of the way, I thought I’d address what’s really important for the Leafs – the Odds of winning the draft lottery.

As per Exhibit 4 in the CBA, the NHL holds a lottery for all 14 teams that do not qualify for the post-season. The lower a team places in the standings, the greater their odds of winning the lottery.

Team 1 (Last place overall) has a 25.0% chance of winning the #1 pick
Team 2 has an 18.8% chance of winning the #1 pick
Team 3 has a 14.2% chance of winning the #1 pick
Team 4 has a 10.7% chance of winning the #1 pick
Team 5 has an 8.1% chance of winning the #1 pick

While all 14 teams do have a chance of winning the lottery (the 14th team has a 0.5% chance of being selected) teams can only move up four (4) places in the draft and can only drop one spot.

So if the #6 team wins the lottery, the draft order would be:
1st pick to the team in last place overall
2nd pick to the 6th team (lottery winner)
3rd pick to the 2nd worst team
4th pick to the 3rd worst team
5th pick to the 4th worst team etc.

Currently, the Leafs are 26th in the NHL, which gives them an 8.1% chance of winning the first overall pick in the draft lottery.

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*Here's the big question: will Raycroft and Bell be waived the day after the Leafs regular season ends - that's the last day to waive a player; Or will they be waived in mid-September when the waiver wire re-opens? I'm going to guess Raycroft goes on the last day of the year and Bell is left twisting until that whole prison-thing is sorted out (there's a sentence I never thought I'd type).

There's Sports Way Up in Section Eight

I’d like to welcome to readers of the New York Times Hockey Blog, “Slap Shots” - thanks for stopping by. Please make yourself at home and by all means feel free to post a comment using your own hockey allusions involving the Leafs as a mentally unstable or aging institutionalized family member. Given the work of the recently departed JFJ and a long history of organizational dysfunction, it’s surprisingly easy.

As for my regular readers (both of you) if you don’t already routinely check out the NYT, you might be interested to know the Old Grey Lady (and no, that's not a euphemism for Yolanda Ballard) is running a series featuring 30 bloggers, one from each NHL team, responding to a set of five questions. Somehow, I was asked to be the Leafs representative (I guess JFJ lost his blog when he got canned) and my responses have been posted here.

It may be my first day at the Times, but Frank Rich still isn't returning my calls. I'm sure by the third set of questions when I explore Leafs Nation as a metaphor for the culture wars Mr. Rich will have changed his mind.

The plan over at Slap Shots is for the 30 of us to respond to a set of five questions on average about every two weeks (or in more Leaf-like terms: about as often as Jason Blake scores). Several divisions have had their responses posted, I suggest you go check it out and maybe leave a comment or two.

No word if the questions coming my way will be all about golf once the post-season begins.

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For those of you looking for trade deadline updates, best bet is to check in with TSN.

The Leafs have been pretty quiet today, so far the only deal is Belak going to Florida for a 5th. The Leafs were soft to begin with but now - wow...Hope Belak gets a better shot in FLA - maybe I'll work up the courage to chat with him next time I see him down at Riverdale Farm with the kids.

Battle of Who Could Care Less

Is the Battle of Ontario currently the worst named rivalry in hockey?

It’s gone from a sea of heat and hatred to a whole pile of meh.

With the Leafs currently residing in the where-are-they-now-file, a Leafs Sens game has all the tension and energy of going to the old age home to play your crazy old aunt at Candy Land. Sure, it's hard to get up for a game like that and every once in a while you stop paying attention, the crazy aunt has a moment of lucidity, maybe some luck with the dice and you end up on the losing end of thing, but even though your aunt may have won a game it's not like she's on pace to crack the remaining unsolved list of Hilbert's problems.

I'm happy the Leafs won (and Ray Emery played nets like a little old lady) but I can't help but wonder how long it will be before these games actually mean something again.

Brave Captain

Mats Sundin has come out and formally refused to waive his no trade clause.

As much as I’d love to see the Leafs loaded up with prospects, I strongly believe Sundin has earned the right to decide his fate.

Had Sundin been traded, I fully expected the media and other mouth breathers to take lots of pot shots at the Leafs over the treatment their captains have historically received - from losing Rob Ramage in an expansion draft to the weirdness that is Dave Keon (could the JFJ orchestrated “reunion” have been more awkward? I fully expected someone to produce a doll and ask Keon wher the Leafs organization touched him).

But is the fate of so many Leaf captains really an anomaly?

Not if you look at how the other 29 clubs have treated the men who wear the C.

Consider:

All thirty clubs have either traded one of their past three captains or lost them to free agency.

Prior to Koivu, the storied Habs had traded their six previous captains.

Detroit dealt Danny Gare before Stevie Y could wear the C.

Of the last six men to captain the Oilers, four were traded, one was stripped of the captaincy and one was lost in an expansion draft. Their cross-province rivals in Calgary actually demoted a captain to the minors, traded three others and lost one to free agency.

Modano, Lecavalier, Conroy, Desjardins and Elias all lost or resigned their captaincy.

In fact of the nearly 120 players who have been team captains in the past 15 or so ears, only eight retired with their clubs and two of them (Laus and Primeau) retired prematurely due to injuries (although, I guess the same could kinda-sorta be said of Lemieux as well...)

Scott Stevens, New Jersey
Al MacInnis, St. Louis
Steve Smith, Calgary
Steve Yzerman, Detroit
Paul Laus, Florida
Keith Primeau, Philadelphia
Mark Messier, New York Rangers
Mario Lemieux, Pittsburgh
Scott Mellanby, Atlanta

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So four of the NTC5 have said no, leaving just McCabe as possible trade bait.

Considering there's just a $750K difference between Kubina and McCabe's cap hit and the extras McCabe brings to the ice, I'd prefer the Leafs hold on to McCabe and ship out Kubina this summer.

It's the match-ups, stupid

Not to blather on about the last minute shift choices again, especially after an allegedly hard-fought win (I didn't watch the game - I went to see Juno, quite liked it) but what the hell are Blake and Tucker doing on the ice in the final minute trying to protect a 3-2 lead?

Leafs get a last minute change on the fly and somebody wearing a suit and tie and standing behind the bench thought Tucks and Blake were suddenly shut-down forwards? Did an usher from the platinums sneak back there to set up the final line combos?

Bottom five in the PK.

Bottom five in the PP.

Out-shot 14-1 to start the game.

Bad line matching sends the game to OT.

If the new President/GM wants to affect real change, looking behind the bench might not be a bad place to start.

CBC Interview

CBC News at Six swung by my house tonight (February 6, 2008) to interview me about the Leaf's season and what it's like to be a fan after that 8-0 debacle at the ACC.

I have zero recall of what I was asked or what I actually said (my kids were watching Dora in the background and actually yelled out "Swiper!" during the interview, likely when I was at my most insightful).

I'm sure my seven seconds of air time on the evening news will be as thrilling and rewarding as last night's Leaf game.

The Real Deal About the Three

Talk about mis-reading an in-game promo.

The Leafs gave up 8 goals to the Panthers tonight and, looking at the way the Leafs played, I can only conclude most of them left the ice thinking they had 1 in 3 odds of winning a flat panel TV.

By the Numbers

About three weeks ago, a University of Alberta business professor calculated the Leafs had a 3% chance of making the post-season. His computer model runs possible outcomes for each team for every game remaining 500 times. The Leafs qualified in just 14 of the 500 simulations. The Leafs have gone 1-2-1 since the prof revealed his numbers. I'm no math whiz, but I'm thinking 3% is higher than Kevin Stevens in a Collinsville Travelodge with a crack pipe and a hooker.

The Leafs are four points up on LA for dead last in the NHL first place in the Stamkos sweepstakes. Tied with Chicago at 51 and up two on Tampa who have 49 points.

Raycroft went into tonight's game with an .874 save percentage, good for 68th in the NHL. Tonight, Rayzor managed to stop 7 of 11 shots, dropping his save percentage to a sizzling .868. Oustanding stuff from the future waiver wire casualty, but it's still not quite enough for him to catch LA's Bernier, who's in the much coveted 69 spot.

You're the one for me fatty

I really hope someone in the media calls Jim Schonfield this morning. I would love to get his take on everyone's favourite corpulent porcine beignet consuming official.

Antro gets three games for his post-game actions (I've always been a big fan of the sarcastic post-game clap for bad refs, well played Nick).

Antropov is quickly becoming my second favourite Leaf (and no, I'm not kidding).

Given all of the controversial calls last night, wouldn't it make a nice change if the NHL followed the NFL's Director of Officiating's lead and was actually open and transparent about officiating decisions? Or maybe even an actual response from the "war room" in Toronto explaining why some goals stand and others don't. Imagine that.

Thanks to the work of last nights "officiating" crew, I thought I'd trot out these golden links:

• An economist confirms referee bias
• Pro Sports League's Commitment to Reducing Officiating Errors (MLB, NFL, NBA only)
• Penalty Probabilities in the NHL