Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Bob McKenzie or Kerry Fraser: You Decide

The guys at PPP asked me to send them a paragraph on where I was during game six of the Leafs - Kings playoff series back in 1993, a game played 16 years ago today. Not being so good with directions, I gave them a bit more than that...

# # #

Believe it or not, I don’t remember much about game six of the Leafs Kings playoff match back in 1993. I know I watched it, but I couldn’t tell you where I was or who I was with.

I’d like to think I was livid at Kerry Fraser for his blown call. I’d like to tell you that Gretzky’s high stick on Doug Gilmour is seared into my memory like some sort of Zapruder film (“back and to the left”), but I’d be lying if I told you it was so.

You see, I was so thoroughly convinced that the Leafs would win game seven that I thought it was best to just put game six behind me. Nothing to see here, just another bad Leaf bounce, just another blown call by the notorious Kerry Fraser. I honestly thought a Leafs-Habs match-up was just too good for the Hockey Gods to pass-up.

It's only with the passage of time and plenty of hindsight (maybe too much) that Fraser's blown call has emerged as the defining event of that series and, perhaps, somewhat sadly, a defining event in the history of the Maple Leafs.

Now game seven I remember. There’s a game that’s seared into my mind like a red hot medallion clutched by the soft pink palm of a Nazi.

I have often dreamt of a Leaf victory in game seven. A dream so palpable that I have stepped out of bed convinced the Leafs did indeed come back and were going on to the Stanley Cup Finals.

But it’s not to be.

And I am a little bitter about that.

But my bitterness is not for Kerry Fraser. No, my bitterness is reserved one for Mr. Bob McKenzie who penned the infamous article headlined: “Gretzky Playing As If He's Got A Piano On His Back

As if that headline wasn't bad enough, McKenzie went on to say:

Now just one loss away from elimination, the Kings could desperately use some old-fashioned Gretzky pyrotechnics to light up the Leafs in Game 6 at the Great Western Forum and send it back here for Game 7 at the Gardens on Saturday night.
Yeah, that’s exactly what that series needed: some bulletin board inspiration for the opposition. And the media tells us it’s the fans who are to blame for the Leafs’ failures.

As we all know, Gretzky went on to score the overtime winner in game six and net three more goals in game seven, including the winner from in back of the net, bounced in off Dave Ellet’s skate.

The Leafs mounted a late comeback in game seven but it was not enough.

And so we wait.

And when the Leafs get close again, and they will, I may be a little difficult to track down (and there will also be an empty chair on the TSN panel).

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Peter Zezel

Peter and I grew up on the same street in Scarborough. He was about six years older, which is a pretty wide gulf when you're a kid, but I have tremendously fond memories of Peter and his family.

From hockey in his driveway to huge street hockey games a few roads over on Valhalla Boulevard, Peter was a talented guy who always managed to keep it fun. He would get the younger kids to touch the ball before he'd go end to end and score, making sure to note the "assist" on the play.

His generosity went well beyond those helper assists. When he played for the Toronto Marlies, Peter would often show up at our door with strips of Marlies tickets in his hands. Thanks to his kindness I watched countless Marlie games up in the greens at MLG.

In his rookie year with Philadelphia, #25 Flyers jerseys suddenly appeared throughout our neighbourhood. The introduction of that brilliant Philly orange so startling in a sporting landscape traditionally coloured blue and white.

The Alpine bar at Victoria Park and Kingston Road used to put Peter's name up on the marquee alongside Rick Tochhet, another Scarborough boy who Peter broke-into the bigs with, to urge the Flyers on to success.

As a Leafs fan, it's difficult to believe how hard I cheered for the Flyers during their Cup runs back in '85 and '87 and how crushed I was when they lost.

A year or two later, Wendel Clark spent his rookie year billeting with the Zezels. Not long after that, I recall Peter being back home at his parents' place during Leafs training camp. It seemed so right for Peter to be with the Leafs and so natural for an actual Toronto Maple Leaf to be out talking with the neighbours and kids on the street.

And that's how I'll remember Peter. A great guy who always made time for us kids, even when we grew up and remained big fans of his and the game he played.

Peter's family has requested that in lieu of flowers, donations be made in his name to the James Birrell Fund at the Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto. The cheques should be made payable to "The James Fund" and can be mailed to:
The James Fund
625 Whitaker Street
#4Peterborough, ON
K9H 7L5
Canada

Saturday, May 23, 2009

The Cost of Trading Up

When asked about his plans for the upcoming NHL draft, GM Brian Burke was about as circumspect and quiet as a six year old kid who’s had three espressos, two helpings of cake, and was on his way to get his first puppy.

Burke claims he wants John Tavares and he doesn’t care who knows it.

According to the roughly 4,268 media experts assigned to cover the Leafs, the cost of moving up in the draft from Toronto’s #7 slot to #1 or #2 varies from the Leafs’ first and second round picks to RFA Mikhail Grabovski to a package of Tomas Kablerle and Luke Schenn (that’s one way to cover the waterfront).

A juicy sub-plot to all of this has Tampa’s money woes hooking up with the Leafs deep pockets in a match made in hard-cap heaven. The most common rumour has Ryan Malone and his $17M contract as the lead item in a Leafs-Bolts swap.

Given the broad range of predictive costs for the Leafs to move up, I thought I’d take a look at first round picks traded over the past ten years to see what type of package it has traditionally required to move into Tavares territory.

The 1999 draft is a great place to start as it’s the draft where Burke made a series of moves to land the Sedins. Of note, the 4th overall pick in ’94 was traded so many times that the Rangers really should have drafted a relative of Gary “Suitcase” Smith.

Here are the trades involving high first round picks that I could find (I tried to keep it to the top 10ish draft picks). It’s certainly not an exhaustive or complete list by any means, but it hopefully provides some context and relative historical costs for a team looking to move from the seventh pick to first or second overall…

Canucks AcquireChicago Acquires
1999 1st round pick (4th overall)

2000 1st round pick (11th overall)
Bryan McCabe


Canucks AcquireLightning Acquires
1999 1st round pick (1st overall)1999 1st round pick (4th overall)
1999 3rd round picks (75 and 88th)

Thrashers AcquireCanucks Acquire
1999 1st round pick (1st overall)1999 1st round pick (2nd overall)
2000 conditional 3rd round pick

Rangers AcquireLightning Acquire
1999 1st round pick (4th overall)2000 1st round pick (8th overall)
2000 3rd round pick (74th overall)
Dan Cloutier
Niklas Sundstrom

Flames AcquireRangers Acquire
1999 1st round pick (11th overall)
Marc Savard
1999 1st round pick (9th overall)
1999 3rd round pick
Jan Hlavac

Islanders AcquireLigthning Acquires
2000 1st round pick (5th overall)
2000 4th round pick (105th overall)
2000 7th round pick (202nd overall)

Kevin Weekes
Kristian Kudroc
2001 2nd round pick (31st overall)


Avalanche AcquireCarolina Acquires
2000 1st round pick (14th overall)
2000 2nd round picks (47th, 63rd)
Noalan Pratt

Sandis Ozolinsh
2000 2nd round pick (32nd overall)


Senators AcquireIslanders Acquire
2001 1st Round Pick (2nd overall)
Zdeno Chara
Bill Muckalt
Alexei Yashin

Columbus Blue Jackets AcquireFlorida Panthers Acquire
2001 1st round pick (1st overall) 2002 1st round pick (3rd overall)
Option to swap 2003 1st round picks

Philadelphia AcquiresLightning Acquire
2002 1st round pick (4th overall)Ruslan Fedetenko
2002 2nd round picks (34th and 52nd)

Florida AcquiresCalgary Acquires
2002 1st round pick (9th)2002 1st round pick (10th)
2002 4th round pick (99th)

Florida AcquiresRangers Acquire

2002 1st round pick (10th)
2002 2nd round pick (40th)
2003 4th round pick (116th)
Igor Ulanov
Filip Novak

Pavel Bure2002
2nd round pick (33)

Philadelphia AcquiresPhoenix Acquires
2003 1st round pick (11th overall)
2002 second round pick (52nd)
Daymond Langkow

Penguins AcquireFlorida Acquires
2003 1st round pick (1st overall)
2003 3rd round pick (73rd)
2003 1st round pick (3rd overall)
2003 2nd round pick (55th)

Carolina AcquiresBlue Jackets Acquire
2004 1st round pick (4th overall)2004 1st round pick (8th overall)
2004 2nd round pick (59th overall)

San Jose AcquiresAtlanta Acquires
2005 1st round pick (8th overall)2005 1st round pick (12th overall)
2005 2nd round pick (49th overall)
2005 7th round pick (207th overall)

Rangers AcquireAtlanta Acquires
2005 1st round pick (12th overall)2005 1st round pick (16th overall)
2005 2nd round pick (41st overall)

San Jose AcquiresToronto Maple Leafs Acquire
2007 1st round pick (13th overall)
2007 2nd round pick (44th overall)
2009 4th round pick
Vesa Toskala
Mark Bell

San Jose AcquiresSt. Louis Acquires
2007 1st round pick (9th overall)2007 1st round pick (13th overall)
2007 2nd round pick (44th overall)
2008 3rd round pick (87th overall)

Islanders AcquireToronto Maple Leafs Acquire
2008 1st round pick (7th overall)
2008 3rd round pick (68th overall)
2009 2nd round pick
2008 1st round pick (5th overall)

Nashville AcquiresIslanders Acquire
2008 1st round pick (7th overall)2008 1st round pick (9th overall)
2008 2nd round pick (40th overall)

What can we learn from all of these trades?

  • That it’s a shame Burke can’t call on GMs such as Mike Milbury (man, that Yashin trade looks even worse with time), Rick Dudley (a 5th overall for Kevin Weekes and a 4th for Ruslan Fedetenko?) or good old JFJ (Toskala and Bell for a 1st, 2nd and a 4th.)

  • Burke needs to talk Sandis Olzonish out of retirement. He’s the only guy on the list who was traded twice for a top 10 pick

  • With all the variables involved (depth of draft, rank of picks exchanged, organizational need) it's difficult to determine a cost for the Leafs to move up into the top two, but historically the cost has been a swap of first round pick plus some combination of 2nd and 3rd round picks and lesser quality players

  • Kaberle and/or Schenn seems to be an overpayment to get into the Tavares/Hedman sweepstakes.
The bigger challenge for Burke may be the off-ice side of the deal. Both the Isles and Bolts are having financial issues. The economic decline and shrinking salary cap means high draft picks and young prospects are more valuable than ever.

With the Isles potentially on the move, in need of a marquee player, and holding the #1 overall draft pick for the first time since 2000 (and just the fourth time in franchise history) I doubt that there’s a deal to be made in Nassau County.

Tampa and that number 2 pick may be a different story...I just hope if a deal is made it's along the lines of the Penguins - Panthers deal in 2003 or the Canes-CBJ trade in 2004.

**update**
It just struck me that when Burke traded up from from 11th to 4th in 1999, he dealt a promising young defenceman who had been acquired by the previous GM. How long until we see Simmons, WCH or Cox weigh in with a "history repeats" piece with Schenn as the cornerstone of Burke's draft day manouverings, just as McCabe was in 1999?

Monday, May 18, 2009

It's like a Mach piece

The NHL has two mock-drafts posted, you can read them here and here.

Thought I'd post this up as it's always worth a look to see what the so-called experts are predicting for the upcoming draft.

Here are Brad Holland and Adam Kimelman's competing top 10s:

TeamHollandKimelan
New York IslandersTavaresHedman
Tampa BayDucheneTavares
ColoradoHedmanDuchene
AtlantaKaneKane
Los AngelesSchennSvensson-Paajarvi
PhoenixCowenKulikov
TorontoKassianSchenn
DallasPaajarvi-SvenssonKassian
OttawaMooreCowen
EdmontonGlennieAshton


Unfortunately neither Holland nor Kimleman weigh in as to just how deep this draft might be, though it's safe to presume the Leafs final draft spot, less one position, is where the talent really drops off. That is, if the Leafs move up to third, the media will assure that this is really a two player draft.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Cinqo de Mayo

The fine folks at PPP have asked me to make a contribution to their site every 10 days or so. This is what I gave them.

I was at a formal dinner this week where I sat with a group of academics. The man to my right had a PhD in Anglo Saxon English. Many of the guests at my table were fluent in Latin. And not ig-pay atin-lay either, I’m talking verus unus.

Between the appetizers and the salad, the conversation turned to a round of questions. Each person at the table had to offer up their response, which we then discussed. Believe it or not, here’s an actual sample: “Is there a difference between underperform and underachieve?” and “What’s the difference between OK and alright?”

Now, I love asking lots of questions and I love a good debate, but I can’t say these topics were exactly in my wheelhouse. (I also kept my initial answer about underachieve v. underperform to myself: If there’s no difference to those two terms, next time you’re in bed with a special someone ask yourself: would you rather be accused of underachieving or underperforming?).

So what would I rather have discussed? What questions would have been in my wheelhouse? Well I’m glad you asked…here are this week’s five questions:

1. Who is the worst GM in the NHL?
For a while that question had multiple correct answers.

There was a time not so long ago when all of the following men were simultaneously employed in the NHL: John Ferguson Junior, Mike Milbury, Doug MacLean, Don Waddell, Mike O’Connell, Francois Gigeure, Mike Barnett, Glen Sather and Bobby Clarke.

Of the group listed above only Sather and Waddell still have their jobs.

But there’s a larger observation to be made here: for the first time in a long time it seems like serious incompetence is not common among NHL GMs. Consider that in 2006 one could argue that 30% of the GMs in the NHL were underachieving (or is it underperforming?).

Maybe the reduction in the number of incompetent GMs has more to do with the fact that many of the current GMs just haven’t had enough time in their new(ish) jobs to fully demonstrate their incompetence.

Garth Snow has shown he can tank with the best of them, but can he draft the right pieces to make the Isles win? This is just season number two of the madness underway in Tampa Bay. And then there’s Sutter’s complete botch job with the Flames cap situation and his inability to get that team out of the first round, nevermind Murray’s curious decline in Ottawa.

I’m wondering if this a new era of competence among NHL GMs or is it just a matter of time before we're back at 30%? Or perhaps the immediate pre and post-lockout NHL was anomaly - one of those times when incompetence reigned supreme?

2. Is Steve Yzerman staying up at night thinking about a goalie?

With the Olympics just nine months and 2,630,812 annoying promotional TV commercials away, Team Canada GM Steve Yzerman can’t be taking much delight in the NHL playoffs. Especially as he thinks about who will be the man in the mask for the Canadian entry.

Martin Brodeur looked pretty meh in getting eliminated by the Canes. He gave up two goals in the final two minutes in an elimination game against Carolina and boom, the Devils were gone. This year’s playoff meltdown from Marty makes it two-seasons in a row that he’s looked suspect in the post-season.

Over on the west coast, Roberto Luongo, the stuff that Jim Hughson’s dreams are made of, gave up seven goals in game six. What’s worse, the Hawks scored four goals on just nine third period shots (and at one point three on six).

Who’s the forerunner to lead Team Canada in the Olympics? Can Cujo redeem himself and show Pat Quinn the so-called error of his ways? Might Fleury or Ward be the answer?

3. Did the benching of Luke Schenn have anything to do with Canada not winning the gold at the World Championships?

As much as I hated to see Schenn ride the pine at the World’s, I’m not sure that his skill set was the missing factor for Team Canada. The team only gave up two goals to the Russians in the final and played a pretty dominant game.

Schenn doesn’t generate much offensively (let’s hope he’s working on his shot from the point this off-season) and it’s doubtful he would have been the difference in an already lopsided game.

It may be blasphemy in Leafs Nation, but if Schenn were an Islander, Blue Jacket or (Heaven forbid) a Canadiens’ prospect, would anyone around here be kvetching about his lack of ice time?

4. What do you think the expansion fee would be for a new NHL team in Southern Ontario?

If I were the Commissioner of the NHL, I’d be blocking Jim Balsillie’s attempt to buy a team too, but not for petty, personal reasons or as part of a failed Sunbelt strategy. I’d block it out of pure greed for my owners. After all, as the Commissioner it’s the interests of the owners, not the game of hockey or hockey fans that I represent.

You see, if Balsillie is able to move a team to Southern Ontario it precludes the NHL from having a high profile open bidding process to bring a team back to Canada. Balsillie’s pre-emptive strike not only eliminates any good will, positive PR and heightened interest in the game Canadian expansion would bring the NHL, it’s sponsors and fans, it also deprives each NHL franchise of their share of expansion fees.

Several media experts have suggested a new franchise in Ontario would immediately be worth $400 million US. That seems a little high to me – the last expansion teams went for $200 million US and the economy wasn’t in a free fall back then - but even if it’s closer to $300 million it certainly makes Balsillie's $200 million bid look like a bargain.

An expansion fee of $400 million USD would yield $13 million per team – not a lot of money considering the Lightning will pay Andre Meszaros $16 million between now and 2013 – but at a time when many NHL teams are papering the house and bleeding money that’s $13 million more than they’ll get if Balsillie wins his case. It’s also $13 million in addition to all of the revenue sharing goodness that a team in Southern Ontario would generate.

5. Can the quality of post-season officiating be measured in Kelvins or is there another negative scale we can work with?

Suspensions are as random as ever. Walker walks after sucker punching Ward with less than five minutes to go in a game. Carcillo gets a game for slugging Talbot; Cammalleri gets nothing for slugging Havlat.

Hossa’s last minute game tying goal gets waived off one-night. Helm’s goal with Cleary running goalie inference is allowed to stand 2 games later.

Chatter from the media types is that teams don’t know what type of game is going to be called by the officials.

During the regular season, The Score (a Canadian all sports channel) has a panel discussion with former NHL linesman Ray Scapinello who reviews the questionable NHL calls of the week. Wouldn’t it be great if HNIC or TSN had a former official as part of their panel that could provide some insight and a greater sense of transparency? Wouldn’t it be nice to hear from someone a bit more, ahem, open than Colin Campbell?

Anyone that’s a fan or has played the game at any level will tell you, the only thing they really want from officials is consistency. What many of us didn’t anticipate was that the NHL would deliver - unfortunately consistently bad wasn’t what we were looking for.

Thursday, May 07, 2009

If it ain't a mess, it'll do till the mess gets here

The world always makes the assumption that the exposure of an error is identical with the discovery of the truth - that error and truth are simply opposite. They are nothing of the sort. What the world turns to, when it has been cured of one error, is usually simply another error, and maybe one worse than the first one.
(H.L. Mencken)


I've had a few people email me for my take on the Leafs and the possible addition of a third NHL team into the Ontario market. I don't have much to add to the already extensive, and excellent coverage that's out there. I'd recommend you check out:

Bob McKenzie at TSN
James Mirtle - here, here and here
The Wall Street Journal
and the excellent Coyotes Blog, Five for Howling

To that great coverage, I'd add the following commentary:

Don't equate the NHL's rejection of Balsillie with the rejection of a seventh team in Canada.

Given the richness of the Southern Ontario market, an NHL team is all but certain to eventually call the region home. When the time comes to put a franchise in Preston, Hespeler or Fiddlesticks Ontario, rest assured the NHL will have their pick of prospective owners.

Don't equate the animosity and lack of popular support for Betteman with weakness.

The commish is one slippery, canny dude. He knows where his support lies and he knows what he has to do to stay in his chair. Betteman can't ever win in the court of public opinion, but I'd bet he'd shiv his own mother to make sure he wins where it matters - in a court of law.

Don't get hung up over vetoes and territorial rights.

Hockey's a business - everyone has their price: look no further than the Ducks, Devils and Islanders for indemnification precedents (and when the time comes, rest assured every team has aggressively litigious counsel standing by).

The shame of all this is that instead of talking about premiere hockey match-ups and really exciting playoff games, many hockey fans and the hockey media are debating chapter 11 vs. chapter 7 bankruptcies, talking about failed markets, and forgetting that no matter how this story ends, many hockey fans are going to be heartbroken.