Inspired by a comment by clrkaitken at uber Leafs blog Pension Plan Puppets, I decided to take another shot at a Venn diagram.
If Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Nazem Kadri doesn't start the year in the NHL he certainly won't be the only first round pick from 2009 playing in the minors. Scott Glennie, taken 8th overall, has already been demoted by the Dallas Stars and I'm sure when final training camp cuts are made across the NHL, there will be many other 2009 first round draft picks whose only glimpse of NHL action will be on their TV.
Development Time
One look at the 2008 first round draft, the year prior to Kadri's, reinforces that it takes time for players to develop and crack the NHL. Three of the top 15 draft picks from '08 have yet to play a single NHL game, and four of the top 15 haven't played more than half a season. That's seven out of the top 15 2008 picks still waiting to break through.
Put another way: only five players born in Kadri's birth year, 1991, have played in the NHL and two of those played in one single game.
Only 17 players born in 1990 have cracked the NHL and they've averaged just 46 games to date.
Roll it back one more year to 1989 and, while the number nearly doubles, only 31 '89 born players have laced them up in the bigs so far, averaging a total of 52 games played in their careers.
For all the talk about the NHL becoming a young man's league, last season only 53 of over 700 players were 20 and under - that's about 3% of the NHL.
Making Plans for Nigel Nazem
Now, I'm not making excuses for Kadri and I'm not saying he's a bust. He certainly doesn't look so hot compared to the pre-season that Magnue Paajarvi-Svensson, drafted 10th, is having in Edmonton. I also I have no idea as to what's best for Kadri's long-term development, but I don't think starting in the AHL is an indictment of a player's talent or character.
Damien Cox has an interesting take on Ron Wilson's upcoming season with the Leafs. He raises some good points about this being Wilson's first season where major changes at the GM or player personnel levels aren't expected.
In amongst these salient points, Cox weaves in this tasty bit of Leaf gossip:
So exactly who are these exit visa carrying, helicopter ride loving Leafs?
The Leafs have invited 60+ players to this year's training camp. That's about 40 more players than they have room for.
Of the seven d-spots on the roster, at least five are already locked down:
1. Phaneuf
2. Komisarek
3. Beauchmin
4. Kaberle
5. Schenn
That leaves three bubble guys(Gunnarsson, Lebda and Finger) in the hunt to be the sixth d-man and 7thD/press-box boy. The other 14 candidates will head to the Marlies, the Leafs ECHL affiliate in Reading or their junior teams.
Up front the Leafs usually carry 13 forwards.
One look at the roster and it's clear that two thirds of those spots are filled:
1. Armstrong
2. Bozak
3. Brown
4. Grabovski
5. Kessel
6. Kulemin
7. Orr
8. Sjostrom(injured)
9. Versteeg
That means 29 forwards are "competing" for just four spots. You have to think MacArthur, Mitchell, Caputi, Hanson and Kadri are the inside favourites here - and the other 25 guys are pretty much pre-season tourists.
Six goalies are in camp, but the Leafs are set with JS Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson...
Look, I get that a lot of these kids are in camp for reasons that have little to do with the 2010-11 Toronto Maple Leafs. For some, it's about rewarding a strong rookie camp; for others it's the cliched "giving them a taste of what it takes to be in the pros." For the goalies, it's a chance to work alongside Francois Allaire. I also expect that cuts will come fast and furious, whittling down the camp to more manageable numbers.
I'm also all for a so-called environment of competition, but one look at the numbers and it's clear that any competition in camp is amongst guys who'll be playing maybe six to eight minutes a night (or sitting in the press box for long stretches).
When Ron Wilson complains about lack of practice time and the team's inability to work on systems during the pre-season I hope a reporter (or a blogger willing to post his $10,000 bond) asks why the team invited 60+ guys to a camp that has six jobs available.
Find all the best pubs for watching Leaf games at YellowPages.ca
Doug Gilmour did it. So did Felix Potvin. Bryan Berard and Dimitri Yushkevich did it at the same time.
When Keith Tkachuk did it, Cam Neely went to the media to question Tkachuk's values.
Petr Nedved once did it for nearly 18 months straight and Alexi Yashin did it so frequently fans, GMs and team-mates were more than a little sore.
But nobody seems to be doing it much anymore.
For much of the 1990s, it was commonplace for NHL players to hold-out or even walk out on their teams as part of contract negotiations. If a player was represented by Mark Gandler it was almost a certainty that they'd do it each time they even so much as heard the word "contract."
But the hold-out seems to have gone the way of the 125+ point season. What was once an annual occurrence for a handful of players is now a rarity.
A quick google news archive search revealed that almost every player who has held out since the new CBA was signed was a Restricted Free Agent at the time. Gaborik might be the lone exception.
With NHL camps set to open in the next week, Bobby Ryan is the only big name player without a deal that I can think of - and if you believe what you read on twitter, a signed contract is imminent. There may be others, but none spring to mind...
What killed the hold out?
Was it the CBA with it's hard cap, ascribed amount for total player salaries and set values for ELCs and max salaries?
Was it the emergence of the KHL as a viable alternative for players?
Or is it a little bit of both?
I certainly don't miss the hold-out, but I'd love to know what has made it disappear.
Find all the best pubs for watching Leaf games at YellowPages.ca
This work by M. Forbes is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-No Derivative Works 2.5 Canada License.
