Sunday, December 19, 2010

The Leafs and Post-Season Droughts

Former Cox Bloc writer Godd Till has an interesting post up over at Pension Plan Puppets, where they're doing a Leaf-centric 12 days of Christmas (I wrote day 5, which can be read here).

Till's wish for day 6 is that the Leafs put-up six consecutive years of consistent play, complete with post-season appearances.

His post reminded me of how long it's been since the Leafs played a game that actually, genuinely mattered. I'm not talking about late season nail biters to see if this team can squeak into the post-season. I'm talking about OT games with no threat of a shootout, or the thrill and tension of a game 7 where an entire season is on the line.

It also made me wonder how the Leafs' current five year drought (sure to be six next April) stacks up against the rest of the NHL.

Looking at the chart below, I suppose the good news is the Leafs have a long way to go before they break any NHL records for futility...


Team



Playoff Drought



Seasons



NJ Devils***



9



79-87



Florida



9



01-10



Washington*



8



74-82



NY Rangers



7



97 - 04



NY Islanders



7



94-01



Columbus*



7



00-07



Detroit



7



70-77



Calgary



7



96-03



Pittsburgh



6



82-88



Atlanta*



6



00-06



Tampa Bay



6



96-02



Carolina***



6



92-98



LA Kings



6



02-08



Phoenix



6



02-08



Philadelphia



5



89-94



Chicago**



5



02-07



Nashville



5



98-03



Colorado***



5



87-92



Toronto



5



05-10



Ottawa*



4



92-96



Vancouver



4



96-00



Edmonton



4



92-96 | 06-10



Montreal



3



98-01



Buffalo



3



99-01 | 01-04



St.Louis



3



05-08



Dallas



3



73-76



Anaheim



3



93-96* | 99-02



Boston**



2



05-07



Minnesota



2



00-02 | 03-05 | 08-10



San Jose



2



91-93* | '95-97



*drought started with their first year in the NHL
** have longer droughts that pre-date 1967
*** drought occurred/is shared with previous franchise (e.g. Whalers, Nordiques)

Friday, December 17, 2010

Clusterf*&@! Quick clusters of goals against are killing the Leafs

Originally posted at Pension Plan Puppets...

Jonas Siegel has a great entry up today at his Eat. Leafs. Sports. Blog where he lists 10 games this season where the Leafs gave up a cluster of goals in a very short time. For those of you scoring at home, the Leafs have been torched for multiple goals in three minutes or less in 30% of their games this season. Seems like an outrageously high number to me.

I wanted to take Jonas' nice research one step further and add a goaltending column to see if there was any sort of pattern...Here's Jonas' table with my goalie column added in:


Date



Opponent



Goalie



Result



Final Outcome



October 23rd



Philadelphia



Giguere



Two goals in 1:51



Loss (5-2)



November 2nd



Ottawa



Giguere



Two goals in 2:26



Loss (3-2)



November 3rd



Washington



Gustavsson



Two goals in 0:53



Shootout Loss (5-4)



November 9th



Tampa



Giguere



Two goals in 0:19



Loss (4-0)



November 16th



Nashville



Giguere



Three goals in 3:30



Win (5-4)



November 26th



Buffalo



Gustavsson



Two goals in 1:45



Loss (3-1)



December 2nd



Edmonton



Giguere



Two goals in 0:36



Loss (5-0)



December 8th



Pittsburgh



Gustavsson



Three goals in 3:08



Loss (5-2)



December 9th



Philadelphia



Giguere



Two goals in 1:19



Loss (4-1)



December 16th



Calgary



Giguere



Three goals in 0:57



Loss (5-2)


As you can see, J.S. Giguere has been in goal for 7 of the 10 games where the Leafs were torched.

To my mind, this pattern of clustered goals against, coupled with a longitudinal look at Giguere's save percentage (nicely assembled by SkinnyFish) is yet further evidence of Giguere's ongoing decline.

Save__medium

Looking at his Giguere's play of late, I hope Gustavsson gets the bulk of Leaf starts going forward and that Burke and the MLSE brain trust are working out what their goaltending options are for next year.

Monday, December 13, 2010

Book Review: Ben and Lucy Play Pond Hockey

There are a lot of kids hockey books out there.

There are a few that I love (Mike Leonetti's My Leafs Sweater, The Magic Hockey Skates) a few that I tolerate (my son's love for Roch Carrier's The Hockey Sweater is troubling) and a few more that I want to use as kindling (the Leafs can't even win the *&$@! Stanley Cup in the Casey at the Bat knock-off Clancy with the Puck. If I wrote kids' books, the Leafs would win the Stanley Cup in every single one of them. They could be about Pearl Harbour, Dinosaurs, Star Trek, future alien invasions or the year 2135, but you can bet there would be a least one reference in each one to the Leafs hoisting the Cup).

I recently received a copy of Ben and Lucy Play Pond Hockey a really nicely illustrated hard cover book about a great day of hockey on the pond. You can put this one in the books that I love category.

My kids are 5 and 7, and both really enjoyed this book - albeit for different reasons. My son loved the art and is crazy for all things hockey. He's not old enough to read yet, but he certainly enjoyed having it read to him. My daughter loved that the book rhymed - she read it aloud to herself several times and read it to her brother as well.

I thought I'd try something a little different here and let my kids put up their own review of the book.

Cal, age 5:

The pictures are really nice. There's one page that's all action and passing and then they score. You can trace where they skated with your finger. Their dog wears a hanker-chef and they use their boots instead of a net. At the end they get to have hot chocolate. I like hockey and I liked this book. It's fun. The hot chocolate is the best part.

Maddie, age 7:

One of the reasons I liked Ben and Lucy Play Pond Hockey is because one of the characters is a girl. I have another hockey book about a girl, but you don't find out she's a girl until the very end of the book [That's Hockey, by David Bouchard - sorry about the spoiler]. The rhyming pattern is fun and easy to read. The art is really good and the kids play together nicely. It's a good book to read to yourself or to read out loud.

Ben and Lucy Play Pond Hockey

I have a copy of this great book to give away. The first person to email me with the name of my favourite boyhood Toronto Maple Leaf (big hint: he was a goalie) wins a copy. ** UPDATE ** The book has been won. Thanks to all who entered and those of you who guessed Mike Palmateer (no thanks to those of you who guessed Lorne Chabot).


You can also order it from the publisher, Powell's, Amazon.com and Amazon.ca.

Friday, December 03, 2010

Smoke 'em if you got 'em

As a kid, three things terrified me more than any other: quicksand, Bigfoot from the Six Million Dollar Man, and bottomless pits.

When Catwoman fell into that bottomless pit on the old Batman shows I was horrified. First off, what a waste of Julie Newmar (seriously) and secondly – a bottomless pit? Really? Falling forever, right through the planet? That is some worrisome stuff to a nine year old (although my kids sure do love to sing along to John Prine's Bottomless Lake).

Thirty years later, none of these fears seem all that legit anymore. You don’t hear much about quicksand, a seemingly ubiquitous plot device in the TV shows and movies of the 1970s and 1980s. The big foot clips on youtube still give me the heebie-jeebies (what is up with those eyes?!?) but I’m no longer worried about what to do when a sasquatch attacks.

As for the bottomless pit, lately that’s what it is to be a Leafs fan - every time you think the bottom has been found, the franchise proves us wrong...

What are the Odds?

I never though this year’s squad would amount to much, likely a tweener team – not good enough for the playoffs and not bad enough for the draft lottery.

Many of the so-called pros saw it the same way: Vegas had the Leafs Stanley Cup odds at 60 to 1 (which seems generous to me); online sports betting sites don’t think much of the Leafs either; and Sports Club Stats has the Leafs odds of making the post season down to a slim 6.2%

That's what makes the next step such a tough one. If this team is under-performing, it's not under-performing by much.

Coach Wilson

Even with the teams' abysmal performance, I have no idea if coach Ron Wilson should be fired.

The holes on the Leafs roster have been evident for some time and it was clear Burke's off-season spackle job wouldn’t be get this team out of the bottom third of the league.

I’m not sure any coach could win with this pop-gun offence. I’ve seen puddles that have more meaningful depth.

The only coach Brian Burke ever fired was Mike Keenan and, if you go back and read the press clippings, Burke apparently did it for two reasons:

  1. The Canucks were on a horrific losing skid;
  2. Burke was worried another team would fire their coach and hire Marc Crawford, the guy Burke wanted.

There is no doubt the Leafs are all over criterion number one. With only four wins in their last 20 and six shutout losses in their last 16, this is an ugly skid.

As for criterion number two, I have no idea who the best available coaches are, but you’d have to think the Leafs brain trust has gone over that question on a daily basis and have a list of candidates whittled down and ready to go.

I think that's the only reason Burke might fire Ron Wilson: if he thinks another organization is going to scoop up his top choice as coach, otherwise I wouldn't bet on Wilson going anywhere this season.

The Month Ahead: A New Low?

The NHL roster freeze is December 19th, but Brian Burke freezes his roster on December 9th. No word on whether that freeze includes changes affecting coaches. Knowing Burke's so-called code, I have a feeling it does.

Looking ahead at the Leafs schedule, they play five top teams in the next 10 days. I’ll be shocked if they come out of that stretch with 2 wins; sadly, I’ll be surprised if they come out of it with more than 2 goals.

If you’re a gambler, you can make the safe bet and take the under against the Leafs at proline. If you're looking for something more entertaining than another shutout loss, there's always Julie Newmar as Catwoman and those haunting Six Milion Dollar Man vs. Sasquatch videos...