I guess I should have googled before I posted that request for stats help re. New NHL v. Old NHL and leads holding up.
Jesse Rogers has done the math and it turns out there isn't much truth to the notion that in the New NHL no lead is safe (unless you happen to be wearing a Maple Leaf jersey while playing in the Meadowlands).
Here's the money quote from Mr. Rogers:
In the 2003-04 season, before the rule changes, the winning percentage of teams scoring the first goal was .678. Since the beginning of last season, that has only dropped to .666. In other words for every 1,000 games played pre-lockout, the team scoring first won 678 times; now that number is 666. That isn't much of a drop-off.Even more interesting is the 3rd period come-from-behind win...a .151 winning percentage existed in 2003-'04. Now it's a whopping .156.
New NHL indeed.