Long Odds
It’s disappointing to me as a Leafs fan that the new measure of success in this town and for this organization seems to be making the post-season.
With expectations well-managed (how many times did someone at MLSE use “playoffs” and “dog-fight” in the same sentence as the season began) this team sits in 10th place, on the outside looking in, and all signs point to JFJ trying to gear up for a playoff run.
Friends, clients and colleagues are all talking about the Leafs current streak and hoping that it might be just enough to help the Leafs squeak into 8th place.
This is what we have to root for?
I realize that the post-season is what it’s all about and you can’t drink from the big silver mug if you don’t even qualify, but isn’t it time somebody at MLSE stepped back and looked at the big picture?
In a nutshell MLSE, here's your big picture: teams that struggle to make the post-season don’t win the Cup.
It’s that simple.
Since the NHL expanded to 21 teams in 1979-1980, the 1985-86 Montreal Canadiens are the lowest ranked club to win the Stanley Cup. That season they were 5th in the Wales(now the Eastern) Conference (they also had a young goalie named Patrick Roy).
Think about that for a second. No team ranked lower than 5th has won the cup since the league expanded to 21 teams. Only twice in the past 26 years has an 8th seeded team even made it to the finals.
Of the 27 teams that have won the cup, since 1979 nineteen were first (11) or second (8) in their conference - that’s 70% of the winners coming from the top 2 spots.
Have a look for yourself...
Season | Cup Champion | Final Standings | Losing Team | Final Standings |
1979-80 | 2nd | 1st | ||
1980-81 | 1st | 4th Prince of Wales | ||
1981-82 | 1st | 4th | ||
1982-83 | 3rd | 1st | ||
1983-84 | 1st | NY Islanders | 1st | |
1984-85 | 1st | 1st | ||
1985-86 | 5th | 2nd | ||
1986-87 | 1st | 1st | ||
1987-88 | 2nd | 2nd | ||
1988-89 | 1st | 1st | ||
1989-90 | 2nd | 1st | ||
1990-91 | 3rd | 7th | ||
1991-92 | 4th | 3rd | ||
1992-93 | 4th | 6th | ||
1993-94 | 1st East | 7th West | ||
1994-95* | 5th East | 1st West | ||
1995-96 | 2nd West | 4th East | ||
1996-97 | 3rd West | 2nd East | ||
1997-98 | 2nd West | 4th East | ||
1998-99 | 1st West | 5th East | ||
1999-00 | 2nd East | 3rd West | ||
2000-01 | 1st West | 1st East | ||
2001-02 | 1st West | 8th East | ||
2002-03 | 2nd East | 6th West | ||
2003-04 | 1st East | 6th West | ||
2004-05 | LOCKOUT | NO | CUP | AWARDED |
2005-06 | 2nd East | 8th West |
Standings indicate overall points ranking, not seeding by division/ *lockout shortened season
As the table above shows, Championship odds aren't good for a team sitting in 8th place (nevermind those in 10th that need everything to go their way just to make the post-season).
As a fan, I’d love the Leafs to qualify for the playoffs – it’s why the games are played - and I really hope they do make it.
But as a fan, isn’t it time we set our sites a bit higher than 8th place? Isn’t it time we asked a bit more of MLSE?
Aiming for 8th place isn't how droughts end.
Bitter,
ReplyDeleteI'm in total agreement that just making it to the dance should not be team management's goal, despite the unfortunate evidence to the contrary. The marketing mantra of 'anything can happen' rings of hollow optimism.
However, though the team is in ninth at the moment, if they can continue to play at this level, three games over five hundred the rest of the way isn't that hard to fathom.
Blowing up the team just won't happen with this ownership. JFJ has said as much, which I take to be him saying what his boss-collective wants to hear. And with only six points separating 4th from 9th, throwing in the towel would probably do more harm than good.
I can't decide if the team should buy or sell. Though I am starting to believe, and not just hope, that team will make the playoffs, and that leads to battling for seeding for whatever that is worth.
I think they should deal Peca and Tucker...the Leafs are going to decide their fate without them in the line-up anyways, so you might as well get what you can for them...yeah, the club will miss them if they make the playoffs, but their ice-time can go to some of the kids so they can get a taste of the post-season...
ReplyDelete