Sunday, February 11, 2007

Making the Grade

Thanks to a comment from Tim and with nod to James Mirtle's Chart, I thought I'd rough out what it's going to take to make the post-season in the Eastern Conference.

Mirtle is projecting it will take 95 points to make the cut, I've been a bit softer estimating the cut at 92 or 93 points (although given the torrid play of so many of the teams on the bubble, Mirtle may be right...)

Here's a look at how things shape up as of mid-day Sunday, February 11th (chart includes Tampa's win over New Jersey but not the result of the Thrashers - Oilers game). Current standings are based on winning percentage, not total points. I also haven't re-sorted the list along with Division leaders seeded 1-2-3...

Winning Percentage: Projections for the Post-Season
TeamWin %GRW% to 92 PtsW% to 93 Pts
1. BUFFALO0.702250.2400.260
2. NEW JERSEY0.661260.3460.365
3. PITTSBURGH0.609270.4630.481
4. ATLANTA0.595240.479.500
5. OTTAWA0.588250.5000.520
6. MONTREAL0.561250.5600.580
7. TAMPA BAY0.561250.5600.580
8. TORONTO0.545260.5960.615
9. CAROLINA0.543240.6040.625
10. NY ISLANDERS0.536260.6150.635
11. NY RANGERS0.527260.6350.654
12. BOSTON0.500280.6790.696
13. WASHINGTON0.474250.7600.780
14. FLORIDA0.465250.7800.800

For what it's worth, no matter how Philly plays this year they can't make the playoffs...

1 comment:

  1. Good stuff.

    The thing I've always found is that the bubble teams really turn it up down the stretch — or at least some of them do. Teams that already clinch or are already out of it slacken off a bit, and the best teams over the final 20 games are generally like Anaheim and San Jose last year (the eventual 6th and 5th finishers in the West).

    It may not be 95, but it'll be awfully close.