Thursday, February 15, 2007

Playoffs, Contracts and the Trade Market,

Trade Deadline Deals: What's the Market?

Forsberg goes to Nashville for Upshall, Parent, a first round pick and a conditional third rounder...quite the purse for 24 regular season games of Forsberg plus however many games they can make-it in the post-season.

Given Foppa's ankle/back/foot/ injury woes, Nashville will be lucky to get him for 20 games and 90% of the post-season match-ups.

Nagy (8g/33a/41pts -3) goes to Dallas for a first round pick and Tjarnqvist. Amazingly, those 41 points put him first in scoring in Dallas.

Shane Doan (19g/16a/35pts -7) signs a $22.75M/five year deal (cap hit=$4.55M/yr) with the Phoenix Coyotes.

Tucker (19g/12a/31 -13) has better numbers this season than both Nagy and Doan in far fewer games. He's got more miles and less upside than Doan, so the contracts aren't exactly comparable (although I'm sure Sosa is already working up the spreadsheets for JFJ's consideration).

Given the prices paid for Forsberg, Nagy; given the money thrown at Doan; given the $18M tithed to the Leafs D; and given that the Leafs are playing their best hockey with Tucks on the sideline, it's clearly time for JFJ to pull the trigger and send Tucker out of town...sadly, I don't think it's going to happen.

Meaningless Projections as of Feb 15 - Leafs are in...

TeamWin %GR Record to 92 Pts Record to 95 Pts
1. BUFFALO0.707245-19-06-17-1
2. NEW JERSEY0.667258-17-09-15-1
3. PITTSBURGH0.6162611-14-113-13-0
4. OTTAWA0.5952411-12-113-11-1
5. ATLANTA0.5852311-11-113-10-0
6. TAMPA BAY0.5762312-11-013-9-1
7. TORONTO0.5522414-10-015-8-1
7. NY ISLANDERS0.5522414-10-015-8-1
9. MONTREAL0.5422314-9-015-7-1
9. CAROLINA0.5422213-8-115-7-0
11. NY RANGERS0.5352515-9-117-8-0
12. BOSTON0.5092718-9-019-7-1
13. WASHINGTON0.4742418-6-120-4-0
14. FLORIDA0.4662318-4-120-3-0

Teams are sorted by winning percentage, not points. Teams have not been re-seeded by division standings. Philadelphia cannot make 92 or 95 points.

Math was done by hand (while coding with Blogger's awkward interface) so please let me know if there are any errors.


  1. The longer Tucker is out the more open I am to this move. Clearly the line of Kilger-Bates-Devereaux is providing the sandpaper that is supposedly Darcy's strength and the PP is still working without him.

    For once I would love to see the Leafs turn an asset into more instead of throwing a contract at it.

  2. PPP - Wouldn't that be refreshing? MLSE selling high, buying low...let's hope it happens...