Saturday, June 30, 2007

An Update on the Updated Cap

I’m getting lots of hits and searches for info on the NHL salary cap and the Leafs’ cap situation so I thought I’d put in a completely new update with the latest info and totals.

The cap is informally being reported as $50.3 million for the 2007-2008 season.

By my math, the Leafs have committed approximately $45.5 million in salaries (that’s for 12 of 14 forwards; 8 D-men, 2 goalies and Belfour’s buy-out - NHL Numbers is hands down THE best site for this data).

As for how much cap room that leaves for MLSE a few things have to be taken into consideration:

1. Teams can execeed the cap by 10% of the cap total from July 1 to the last day of training camp – see article 50.5 c ii B of the CBA:

    in order to ensure that Clubs may have sufficient time and flexibility to plan their rosters during the off-season, the Upper Limit shall be temporarily raised by ten (10) percent to permit Clubs additional flexibility with their Averaged Club Salaries during the period from July 1 until and including the last day of Training Camp.
    With a $50.3 million upper limit, the Leafs could carry $55M in salary until the last day of training camp. By the end of camp, the Leafs need to be back under the $50.3M cap.

    2. Toskala’s contract extension should not affect the Leafs cap for this season. My reading of article 50.5 (f) 1 of the CBA leads me to believe the bump in Toskala’s salary will not count against the Leafs cap hit for the 2007-2008 season:

    An "extension" of an SPC, as such term is used in this Agreement, shall mean a new SPC entered into between a Club and a Player, which SPC is to be effective immediately upon the expiration of the Club and Player's existing SPC.
    As Toskala’s existing Standard Player Contract (SPC) doesn’t expire until the conclusion of the 2007-2008 season – his increased salary will not count against the Leafs’ cap until the 2008-2009 season.

    So, in a nutshell:
    Cap: $50.3M
    Leafs salaries to date: $45.5M
    Less flex salaries for short-term injuries/call-ups: $1.5M

    Sub-Total cap space available: $3.3M
    10% flex room: $5.03M

    TOTAL cap space available until last day of training camp: $8.33M

    Friday, June 29, 2007

    Silver Fox to help the Gelding?

    Following the public emasculation of JFJ, former Leaf executive and HHOF member Cliff Fletcher has thrown his hat into the three ring circus that is MLSE’s search for a senior consultant.

    Fletcher’s first run with the Leafs started off with tremendous promise; however, like all things Toronto Maple Leafs, it ended with a whimper and left the franchise in a bit of a shambles.

    Given the overwhelming success the Coyotes have experienced with Fletcher in a consulting role (the GM and much of his executive team fired, a $7.5M contract for Jovo, signing Brett Hull, a dismal draft history, the worst finish in franchise history, missing the playoffs four of the last five years…) I can certainly see why MLSE would be interested in bringing his unique vision to Toronto to assist JFJ.

    Here’s a quick look at the possible new MSLE tandem:


    Cliff FletcherJohn Ferguson Junior
    NicknameSilver FoxThe Gelding*

    Early hockey influences in their careers

    Studied at the knee of the great Sam Pollock of the Montreal Canadiens

    Roomed with Paul DiPietro with the Fredericton Canadiens
    Big DecisionsEngineered blockbuster trade that brought Gilmour to TorontoOnce rented Happy Gilmore from Blockbuster
    Respective teams’ winning percentage
    in the three years prior to their joining
    the organization
    Phoenix 2001-2004
    .548

    TML 2001-2004
    .585

    Respective teams’ winning percentage
    while they were with the organization

    Phoenix 2005-2007
    .474

    TML 2005-2007:
    .577

    Made the playoffs…20% - Once in five years as GM/Consultant of Phoenix33% - Once in three years as GM
    Great moments in prognostication“draft schmaft”"I did not anticipate a year-long [labour] stoppage…"
    First and second round draft picks
    traded while GM of the Leafs
    1st to Philadelphia
    1st to NYI
    2nd to Hartford
    2nd to Pittsburgh

    (and many flips of first round picks to move up and down in the draft)
    1st to NYR
    1st to San Jose
    2nd to NYR2nd to Phoenix 2nd to San Jose

    (Also dealt former first round pick Tukka Rask)
    The Gretzky Connection?Worked out a deal to make Gretzky a Leaf but was vetoed by ownsershipStill willing to consummate that deal for Gretzky if he can find cap room for Gretzky's salary demands

    *not really, but I'm hoping it will catch on

    Thursday, June 28, 2007

    Someone to Watch Over Me

    In most organizations the probation period is, what, about three months? At MLSE it appears to be about four years.

    Yesterday, MLSE President and CEO Richard “Dick” Peddie confirmed that MLSE has retained an executive search firm to hire a senior hockey executive to provide counsel to their hockey department.

    In what can only be charitably described as backhanded compliment, Peddie said that, despite JFJ being the GM position since of August of 2003 and irrevocably in charge of the Leafs for the past two year, his hand-picked GM is “still learning.”

    Ouch.

    The admission that all is not going well with JFJ’s tenure is like some sort of awful metaphorical eating contest - Peddie choking down some crow while publicly serving JFJ a great big piece of humble pie.

    It also (somewhat surprisingly) confirms a story that Steve Simmons (gak!) broke over two weeks ago.

    Despite two weeks of near daily media coverage, MLSE’s intentions are about as clear as JFJ’s Master Plan (you know the one-year deal to clear cap space to sign the uber UFAs who never materialized plan, which became the build-not buy plan that became the deal three first round and two second round picks in four years plan, which sort of fit in with the tougher to play against plan that didn’t really work out, leaving the Leafs with the make the playoffs at all cost and CYA plan. Whew.)

    If it weren’t so pathetic and I weren’t such a Leafs fan the punch lines would be coming faster than an Aloisius Q. Iafrate slapshot (Peddie said to Howard Berger, "What I've told John is to behave like he's the General Manager..." maybe if JFJ had been given that advice four years ago, the Leafs might not be in the mess they're in.)

    Here’s the media trail*:

    June 14, Steve Simmons was the first with the dirt on MLSE’s efforts to hire an external hockey professional to act in senior consulting role.

    On June 22, the Star ran an article headlined “Leafs hang out help wanted sign” with an official non-denial from Peddie: "Richard Peddie, president of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment Ltd., would not comment on the club's interest in Muckler but did say bringing an experienced hockey man on board has not been ruled out."

    June 23 – The next day, buried in a Damien Cox article, Cox wrote: “With MLSE chairman Larry Tanenbaum and director Dale Lastman unrelenting in their drive to get rid of Ferguson or bring in a senior hockey executive to add yet another complicating layer to the Leaf bureaucracy, you have to believe Ferguson knew that he no longer can patiently build for a future of which he can't count on being part of.”

    Two days later, Bob MacKenzie gets in on it, confirming details of the executive search firm.

    June 26 – Simmons updates his original scoop, claiming Bowman and Burke have declined the opportunity with MLSE, that Muckler has been added to the list, and that the position may not be as autonomous as previous reports have suggested.

    The same day, Cox writes a piece in his “blog” (why the Star insists on calling Cox’s second 500 word column a blog is beyond me…) that pretty much sums up my feelings on the matter:

    If the Leafs really believe they need a "senior" person, then they should simply can Ferguson and let the "senior" person take over, clean house and start fresh…these Leafs need fewer layers, not more.
    David Johnson is the first blogger to weigh in, offering some serious thoughts on why Muckler may not be the best man for the gig.

    The very next day, Sportsnet’s Jim Kelley echoes David Johnson’s thoughts: “If you're going to hire a guy to eventually be Ferguson's successor, perhaps even in mid-season next season, well perhaps you want someone who has a track record in the position.”

    Mirtle sort of weighs in too.

    And that brings us to June 28 with the story everywhere and Peddie pretty much confirming the content of Simmons’ June 14 article.

    If you stitch together two weeks and twelve pieces of coverage, what do you get?

    Not a whole lot:

    • Tannenbaum and Lastman are not JFJ supporters, Peddie appears to be (or is at the very least executing a very public CYA move to put some distance between himself and JFJ)
    • MLSE has retained an executive search firm to find a senior hockey executive to provide additional counsel to MLSE
    • Implicitly, the search for senior counsel to "help" JFJ suggests the MLSE board has less than 100% confidence in their GM
    • JFJ will not get an extension at this time, but his job is allegedly safe (wtf?)
    • Bowman, and possibly Burke, were offered the gig and said "no thanks"
    • Muckler appears to be the "compromise" candidate (FWIW, the last compromise candidate at MLSE was JFJ and didn't that just turn out golden?)
    • The job is either fully autonomous and the equivalent to Colangelo or Embry's position with the Raptors, or the new hire has to keep JFJ and likely most of JFJ's staff (that's two wtf's if you're keeping score)

    While I do feel for JFJ for what is essentially a very public demotion (especially given the health of his father) I think it was a long time coming.

    JFJ was either unable, or unwilling in the face of board pressure, to stick to his very public plans to rebuild this franchise. He has made a series of questionable moves that have left the club mired in the middle of the pack.

    The team may be better off than when he was hired, but four years and many mistakes later, they're certainly no closer to challenging for anything more than a playoff spot.

    As a Leaf fan for nearly 40 years - from the return of Punch Imlach to the days of Brophy; from Tom Watt and Doug Carpenter to Luca Cereda and Jeff Ware; from Mike Smith, Anders Hedberg and Ken Dryden to Boyes for Nolan; from the hiring of JFJ "the compromise candidate" to Bell and a 2nd for Perreault - I've learned to never underestimate the Leafs' ability to make poor decisions.

    That said, the sooner JFJ is removed from a position of decision making authority, the better.

    *Say what you will about Steve Simmons and his hyperbolic columns, but he’s had two of the biggest scoops in Leaf Land this off-summer. While his story of Sundin’s hip may have made it sound like the Big Swede had contracted Ebola, a careful read of that column demonstrates a Clinton-like ability to use modifiers and passive language to cover his ass. He's also the guy that broke this story two full weeks before MLSE owned up to the truth...

    Monday, June 25, 2007

    UPDATED: The Leafs Cap

    Here's (yet) another look at the Leafs salary cap situation.

    At the very least, it's likely that 2 forwards will be added and one defenceman will be playing with the Marlies. As well, under section 50.5 of the CBA, teams can exceed the cap by 10% from July 1 to the last day of training camp, so who knows how the Leafs' cap will break down. That said, by my math they're going to have to find about $3 to $5M in cap savings to take a run at a big name UFA.

    12 Forwards: $20,411,000

    1. Antropov
    2. Belak
    3. Bell
    4. Devereaux
    5. Kilger
    6. Pohl
    7. Ponikarovsky
    8. Stajan
    9. Steen
    10. Sundin
    11. Tucker
    12. Wellwood

    8 Defence: $20,829,328

    1. Coliachovo
    2. Gill
    3. Kaberle
    4. Kronwall
    5. Kubina
    6. McCabe
    7. White
    8. Wozniewski

    2 Goalies: $3,375,000

    Belfour's Buy-out: $770,000

    SUB-TOTAL: $45,335,328

    Cap room remaining: approximately $2 ~ $2.5 million (presumes a $48/49 million cap with some flex room left over for short-term injuries)

    Friday, June 22, 2007

    Toskala and Bell headed to the ACC

    I was in meetings all day and didn't find out about this deal until 2:10 PM: Toskala and Bell for the Leafs' 2007 1st (moves to 1st in 2008 if San Jose can't get the player they want) and 2nd round picks plus the Leafs 4th round pick in 2009.

    First thought: meh.

    Second thought: Good thing draft picks and home grown talent are so essential in today's NHL as, for the second time in his four year tenure, JFJ deals away the Leafs' first round pick.

    After about three minutes consideration: It's nice to have Toskala to challenge Raycroft and Toskala's cap hit is fine, but he's an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season.

    I also have a strong feeling Bell is Jeff O'Neill redux at $500K more per season. No doubt Leaf fans everywhere will be projecting him as a 40 goal scorer, just as the did with O'Neill (memories of Derek King, anyone?).

    And my concluding thought: a conditional first, second and fourth round pick seems a bit high - especially if the player San Jose wants isn't available. If San Jose can't get their man, the pick moves to 2008, a draft many are calling the deepest in years - comparing it to the very robust 2003 entry draft.

    With the signing of Carlo (a great deal, IMHO) the Leafs cap situation now looks like this:

    12 Forwards: $20,111,000

    1. Antropov
    2. Belak
    3. Bell
    4. Devereaux
    5. Kilger
    6. Pohl
    7. Ponikarovsky
    8. Stajan
    9. Steen
    10. Sundin
    11. Tucker
    12. Wellwood

    7 Defence: $19,671,000

    1. Colaiacovo
    2. Gill
    3. Kaberle
    4. Kubina
    5. McCabe
    6. White
    7. Wozniewski

    Raycroft: $2,000,000
    Toskala: $1,375,000

    Belfour's Buy-out: $770,000

    SUB-TOTAL: $43,927,000

    Cap room remaining: approximately $4million (presumes a $48M cap with some flex room)

    Still to sign: Williams (RFA minimum salary $557,000)

    Remaining cap room best guestimate: $3+ Million

    Tuesday, June 12, 2007

    Cap Update: The Big Swede Signs

    Sundin Inks One Year Deal: Cap hit $5.5M

    With a $48M cap, the Leafs have approximately $6.5M to sign Colaiacovo, Harrison, Williams a back-up goalie and acquire any new bodies through UFA/RFA signings.

    Salary Commitments

    PlayerPosStatus 06-07 Cap Hit07-08 Cap Hit
    BelfourGYear 2 of buy-out $750K$750K
    DevereauxFSigned to 2009$450K$650K
    AntropovFSigned to 2009$1.125M$2.05M
    KilgerFSigned to 2009$900K $900K
    NewburyFSigned to 2009$450K$450K
    OndrusFSigned to 2008$475K$475K
    PohlFSigned to 2009$463K$463K
    PonikarovskyFSigned to 2010$713K$2.105M
    RaycroftGSigned to 2009$2M$2M
    StajanFSigned to 2008$875K$875K
    SteenFSigned to 2008$901K$901K
    TuckerFSigned to 2012$1.59M$3M
    SundinF

    Club option

    $6.33M$5.5M
    WellwoodF

    Signed to 2008

    $875K$875K
    WestrumF

    Signed to 2008

    $463K$463K
    BelakDSigned to 2008 $670K$670K
    GillDSigned to 2009$2.075M $2.075M
    KaberleDSigned to 2011 $4.25M$4.25M
    KronwallDSigned to 2009$625K$487.5K
    KubinaDSigned to 2010$5M$5M
    McCabeDSigned to 2011$5.75M$5.75M
    WhiteDSigned to 2010$453K$850K
    WozniewskiDSigned to 2008$463K$463
    TOTAL$41,002,500




    Remaining Leaf RFAs

    PlayerPosStatus 06-07 Cap Hit07-08 Minimum Cap Hit*
    ColaiacovoDRFA$825K$866K
    HarrisonDRFA$450K$495K
    KronwallDRFASIGNED
    WilliamsFRFA$570K$557K
    TOTAL $1,918,000



    Salary cap is expected to rise to $47 to $48 million for 2007-08

    * RFAs earning $600K or less, must be qualified with a 10% raise; RFAs earning earning $660,001 to $1M, must be qualified with a 5% raise - these are the required minimums only, players may, can and will likely sign for more (RFA Ponikarovsky's salary tripled; UFA Antropov's salary doubled).

    Friday, June 08, 2007

    Why the Sens Lost: How they Can Win in 2008

    I have studied the game tapes and crunched the numbers.

    I have looked at ESG+, ESS-, TOI, shift charts, specialty teams, built databases and read tea leaves and I have come to a startling conclusion.

    I know why the Senators lost the Stanley Cup.

    As a Leaf fan, it’s a secret I’m not sure that I should share with our supposed rivals from the town that fun forgot.

    It could be the key that brings the Cup back to Canada.

    But, in the spirit of sportsmanship and in deference to so many of my poor, sad friends who sold out their previous teams to cheer for the Sens, I am prepared to share that secret with you now.

    Beards.


    That’s right, as anyone can tell you facial follicles separate the men from the boys.


    As the Blue Jays have found out, the arrival of Sal Fasano’s fu man chu has the club approaching the .500 mark for the first time this season. Talk of releasing Fasano has seen the team lose two in a row to the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Imagine if Sal had the power of a full beard.

    Still don’t believe me?

    Look at last year’s miracle run by the Oilers. You don’t really think that team should have been in the finals do you? But Google any images from last year’s playoffs and you’ll get a sea of beards among the blue, copper and white.

    Biggest disappearing act in the playoffs by an impending free agent? Daniel Briere. Why? Because he can’t grow a beard – Briere grows facial hair like he’s the daughter of the bearded lady at the circus.

    Calder cup winners? The Bulldogs – here’s the wire photo:
    Carey Price will haunt the Leafs one day

    Now, look at this year’s Stanley Cup match-up.

    The winners:
    beards everywhere

    And the losers:
    spot the beard

    It couldn’t be more obvious.

    Who had the best beard on the Ducks?

    Scott Niedermayer

    Who won the Conn Smythe?

    Scott Niedermayer.

    Who was suspended twice?

    Pronger.

    Who was clean shaven?

    Pronger.

    I’m starting to see a trend here.

    Hands down, the most consistent Senators in the finals - the guy that coach Murray said he wished he had a dozen of?

    Mike Fisher.

    Which Sen had the best playoff beard?

    Mike Fisher.

    Coincidence? I think not.

    Even Teemu Selanne’s father (or father in-law) grew a beard:
    Finnish Flash

    Consider this: Heatley and Spezza didn’t grow beards for the finals. A search party is still looking for them.

    Want to know something really spooky?

    J.S. Giguere didn’t let in a single really bad goal. Challenged for the Conn Smythe trophy and gets his name engraved on the Stanley Cup. Everything seemed to go his way.

    He had a beard.

    The goalie at the other end of the ice? Well, he ran into some pretty bad karma in game six – scoring on his own net to kill any momentum Alfredsson’s short-handed goal might have brought. In fact, many would argue that Emery had his worst run of games in the Stanely Cup final. Why? What was the cause of his poor play?

    The man is named Razor.

    Think about that for a moment.

    The Sens goalie is the anti-beard.

    Alfredsson, an early favorite for the Conn Smythe, shows up in the finals clean shaven and it’s like some type of madness hits him. He ends up shooting the puck right at who? That’s right, the Duck with the biggest beard.

    As the Sens and their fans spend the summer trying to figure out what went wrong and how they can bounce back next year, it’s pretty clear to me that they don’t need to re-build, they don’t need to change this line-up to threaten for the cup.

    This team needs to embrace the beard.

    The Sens need to throw away their lady philishaves, get rid of those pink venus razors, home waxing kits and their disposable Gillette Daisy Plus - whatever they’re training staff put out in the clubhouse - and they need to get on the beard bandwagon.

    Next year, a few months after the Leafs have failed to qualify for the playoffs (about the same time that MLSE offers JFJ a lifetime contract) each and every Senator should look like they could house a family of rare birds in their facial hair - then, and only then, will they sip from the Cup.

    Tuesday, June 05, 2007

    A culture of losing: Compare and Contrast

    In the final minute of game 2 of the Eastern Semi-Finals, a rather blatant foul on LeBron James was ignored, the Cavs went on to lose the game 79-76 and went down 2-0 to the Pistons. When asked about the non-call, Coach Mike Brown said: "The officials get paid a lot of money, and that's their job. If they don't see anything, they don't see anything. We're a no-excuse team. We've got to get ready for Game 3."

    When asked about that same non-call LeBron James stepped up and said: "We're a no-excuse team, you know, and we can't look at the last play as why we lost. We've just got to get better."

    When asked by Canadian Press to provide a post-mortem on the Leaf's most-recent season, JFJ said "We were number one in the league to man games lost to injury in what turned out to be the toughest division in the East and probably in the league to qualify."

    When asked about the impact Sean Hill's delayed suspension had on the Leafs and Islanders, JFJ said, "For sure I think we would have made the playoffs."