Une saison perdu (with aplogies to Hemingway)

When Thales was asked what is most universal, he answered, Hope, for hope stays with those who have nothing else - Epictetus, Fragments.

I'm beginning to think Thales didn't know what it is to be a Leafs fan.

Earlier this year, before a single game had been played, a good friend of mine told me that this would be the worst Leaf season since the lockout. The team was largely without talent up front and lacked a certified puck stopper. Giving up five of eight first round picks meant there were little to no reinforcements on the farm, little depth in the system, and very few tradable assets to spackle over the many holes in the Leafs roster.

I hate to say it, but it looks like he was right.

The worst part is, with so few assets on the farm, the cap situation limiting most trades, no draft picks with which to stock up on young talent and so few appealing UFAs hitting the market, I don’t see how this team gets significantly better (never mind how limited their options are if Kessel gets hurt).

Where Will the Players Come From?

The big question for this organization is how to re-build without draft picks? How does this team acquire the cost-effective talent and depth required to compete?

Yes, the Leafs will have plenty of cap space in the off-season and likely a barren roster to re-populate as Exelby, Mayers, Ponikarovsky, Primeau, Stajan, Stempniak, Toskala, Wallin and Van Ryn are all pending UFAs. Unfortunately, it’s not exactly a bumper crop of UFAs hitting the market and several of the big name UFAs will likely sign long-term deals with their current clubs.

More importantly, UFA contracts are rarely full-value (Hey look - it's Jason Blake, Jeff Finger and 15% of the Leafs' cap hit) and a very inefficient and unproven way to build a successful hockey team in a capped system.

Down on the farm, the Leafs have four, maybe five, kids that might make a contribution at the NHL level.

Next season Hanson, Bozak and Stalberg will have a shot at cracking the 3rd, possibly 2nd line, and Gunnarson will get his shot as the fifth or sixth D. That’s it. The following season, Kadri gets his chance (let’s not rush the boy). After that the cupboard is pretty much bare.

The just leaves the, ahem, small task of landing 2/3 of a first line – including a true first-line pivot that can play the tough minutes and get Kessel the puck - 1/3 of a second line, a starting goalie, and someone that can run the PK.

All of these needs have to be acquired via free agency or by trading players that are uniformly having terrible seasons.

Sounds like a good plan.

There will be no Restocking of High Round Draft Picks

Last year at the trade deadline a single first round pick changed hands. Just one. First round picks have never been worth more. The one thing that's never had higher value comes at a time when the Leafs don't have any (quelle suprise).

This year, short of trading Tomas Kaberle (who has a NTC, a clause that Brian Burke stated he will not ask Kaberle to waive) or the few prospects that the Leafs have, there is no asset on the Leafs roster worthy of a first round pick.

There is no first round pick coming as part of a salary dump.

Let me say this again: There is no first round pick coming as part of a salary dump.

Every year since the lockout countless ink has been spent, millions of pixels distributed and the airwaves polluted with chatter that teams in cap trouble would trade high draft picks to shed problem salaries.

With the exception of a single deal between San Jose and New Jersey four years ago, it hasn't happened and I doubt it ever will.

Waivers, buy-outs, and loans to European teams are all far more viable and acceptable options than trading away an ever more valuable asset just to deal with a bad contract.

If anything, GMs have figured out that dead contracts can be dumped as part of bigger deals: JFJ wants Toskala? He's got to take Mark Bell. Got a deal for Dany Heatley? Here's Cheechoo, a little washed up and weighted down with cash. Want one of the Hawks big prospects, better stitch Campbell's name on the back of a jersey.

Another Lost Season

With just 3 wins at the first quarter mark of the season, the Leafs are pretty much just playing out the string.

The only thing to look forward to this year is the trade deadline where the team might be able to procure a second or third round pick and a whole pile of 5th and 6th rounders for their spare parts. (Who would have guessed that the true passion that unites us all is a day in mid-February where we get to see a bunch of guys wiped from the Leafs roster?)

On pace for 12 wins, fewest goals for, most goals against and maxed out at the cap. Two top 10 draft picks in the last two years already in the system. Just think, this is where Chicago was in 2005, and where Pittsburgh and Washington were in 2004. Sadly, I can’t see a similar upside for a Leaf team with so few options left.

Yeah, the sun also ariseth - unfortunately, the Leafs' fortunes never seem to.