Me and the boys and our 50

As you likely well know, the Leafs have signed 22 year old prospect Christian Hanson out of the NCAA.

Clearly, the Leafs organization has an affinity for NCAA players with upwards of nine playing in their system, most of whom were drafted by the JFJ led Leafs.

The last signing of this type by the Leafs that I can recall is Mike Johnson who signed with the Leafs out of Bowling Green back in 1997. I'm not sure that's the most recent example, but it's certainly the only one that comes to mind - possibly due to my diminishing mental prowess and possibly due to the lack of innovative impact signings the Leafs have been able to pull off over the last fifteen years.

Rumours persist that Burke is pursuing a few more NCAA prospects, which brings up the issue of Standard Player Contracts (SPCs) and why it was so important for the Leafs to shed bodies at the trade deadline.

As I wrote about when the Leafs waived Bell and Kronwall, NHL teams are limited to having a maximum of 50 players signed to SPCs for any given season. the loss of Bell, Kronwall, Moore and Antropov put the Leafs at about 45 SPCs. Since that time they have signed Harrison (46), Hamilton (47), Berry (48) and now Hanson (49).

That means the Leafs have one more spot open to sign an NCAA prospect and one big loophole to play with.

According to the CBA section 50.8 (d), the Leafs can tender contracts to undrafted free agents that are post-dated to next season and so long as the Leafs don't exceed 50 SPCs for a given July 1 to June 30 period, they are in compliance with the CBA.

As the Leafs have 13 contracts expiring on June 1, Burke has lots of wriggle room to sign NCAA prospects for next year with one competitive disadvantage: anyone signed to a post-dated SPC can't play for the Leafs or Marlies this year.

For those of you who scratched your head when the Leafs dealt for Hollweg, you can add the possible loss of a NCAA prospect due to SPC limits to your list, along with that fifth-round pick that was spent to acquire him, in your hate email to Fletcher.

For an excellent summary of the various roster limits and exemptions you should read this; there's on-going discussion of the Hanson signing over at PPP and a nice piece from Alex Tran at Maple Leaf Hot Stove here.

In a horror movie when the car won't start you give it one last try

As expected, this has been a pretty dismal season for the Leafs and, given the paucity of talent on this club and the preponderance of injuries, it's been difficult to get a handle on the impact of Ron Wilson in his first year with the team.

Take the Leafs special teams (please).

With such little talent up front it's surprising that their PP is 12th overall. That's a pretty respectable showing when you consider they're running Kubina, Stempniak, Blake, Stajan, and Poni as PP1.

On the PK the Leafs have been dreadful. Earlier this season they were flirting with the lowest PK rate in the NHL in nearly 20 years. I suspect the poor showing on the PK had more to do with Toskala than it did with coaching, players or systems. Gerber has played all of eight games for the Leafs and in that time the club has been killing penalties at an 80.7% clip. It's a very small sample to be sure, but it's still a vast improvement over their 30th place showing at 75%. In fact, if they could maintain their new kill rate with Gerber between the pipes it would put them in 18th in the NHL.

One other, albeit random, improvement from the Leafs this year: the dreaded shootout. If the Leafs win their next shoot-out they'll be .500 in the gimmicky extra point contest under Coach Wilson (7-7). I don't think the Leafs have ever been .500 in the shootout since it's inception, unless you count the days when the club is 0-0.

* * *

It will be interesting to see what supplementary discipline, if any, the NHL takes against Martin Gerber for his outburst late in the Caps game. The NHL has a tendency to approach supplementary discipline with as much order and precision as Jackson Pollack going at a blank canvas. Gerber bumped an official and fired a puck in their direction after a questionable goal by Laich. Under rule 41, that's an automatic game misconduct:

41.1 Game Misconduct – Any player or goalkeeper who deliberately applies physical force in any manner against an official, in any manner attempts to injure an official, physically demeans, or deliberately applies physical force to an official solely for the purpose of getting free of such an official during or immediately following an altercation shall receive a game misconduct penalty.

What remains to be seen is that firing of the puck moves Gerber into automatic suspension territory as per rule 41.3

41.3 Automatic Suspension – Category III – Any player or goalkeeper who, by his actions, physically demeans an official or physically threatens an official by (but not limited to) throwing a stick or any other piece of equipment or object at or in the general direction of an official, shooting the puck at or in the general direction of an official, spitting at or in the general direction of an official, or who deliberately applies physical force to an official solely for the purpose of getting free of such an official during or immediately following an altercation shall be suspended for not less than three (3) games.

At this point in the year, there are certainly worse options than seeing Cujo get the start for two or three games. Maybe one of Reese, Healy or Potvin can come out of retirement serve as his back-up.

There's a Place for us

So Cujo is making noise about not retiring. Great. Mike Zeisberger ran with it yesterday at the Sun and Dave Perkins picked up the lukewarm leftovers today at the Star.

As far as the Leafs go, this really is a non-story. One needs to look no further than Coach Wilson to realize that Cujo isn't in the Leafs plans:

"He can still be a backup somewhere [emphasis mine]," coach Ron Wilson said. "He was not what we expected but he's been good the past three or four games."

You'd think that quote would take the air out of the Cujo returns storyline (Somewhere?!?, Do you think Wilson meant the AHL or the stick hockey games in Cujo's basement?) but apparently not...

I realize there's space in the paper and call in shows to be filled and nature and sports media abhor a vacuum, but it's non-stories like this that make me abhor the vacuous.

A Spoonful Weighs a Ton

It's been light posting over here and that's going to continue for the short-term. I'm hopeful that I'll be putting up more dry, humourless, typo-laden content in ten days or so.

In the interim, here's something that's really worth a read for anyone that shares in interest in how the media cover sports: the last letter from the ESPN Ombudsman Le Anne Schreiber.

When I cast my mind back over two years of mail, searching for that taproot, the first word that came to mind was "arrogance." That wasn't the word most frequently used by fans, but accusations of arrogance were implicit in the many complaints I received about specific anchors who imposed their personalities on the news, announcers who elevated their own chatter over the game at hand, commentators who leapt to the absolute in a single shout, columnists who heaped scorn on minor sports or minor markets, and the relentless corporate "me, me, me" of multiplatform cross-promotion.
If arrogance were indeed the taproot, the message to ESPN from fans would be simple: "Get over yourselves, it's not all about you." And the solution would be as simple as ESPN asking the loudest and most self-smitten of its many personalities to tone it down.

Ms. Schreiber also nails one of my pet-peeves: announcers who put way too much emphasis on the so-called stars. Martin St. Louis has got so much slobber-laden coverage out of the last two Leafs -Lightning games you'd think he invented hockey, had a hat-trick both nights, cured a horribly debilitating disease and jump-started the economy. Meanwhile, over at the CBC, Jim Hughson strokes out when the Sedin's make a four foot pass.

More telling was the mail I received from fans of ESPN's favored few. "Favre was one of my favorite players in the NFL," wrote a fan from Kansas City. "Now I'm just sick of hearing about him." Although the killjoy effect can linger for years, it takes less than a season to engender. "Why don't you write about how ESPN's overcoverage is killing interest?" a fan from Seattle asked in January. "The latest example is [Davidson College basketball star] Stephen Curry, who was a joy to watch during the NCAA tournament last year, and now ESPN has already begun to wring every last drop of joy out of watching him."

Given that sports producers turn their shows over to the likes of Mike Milbury, Al Strachan and the latest fired executive, and given that PJ Stock, Nick Kypreos and Marc Crawford make their living in this field, I'm very doubtful that any of the trends in awful sportscasting will ever be addressed, much less go away. But it's nice to know thousands of sports fans and a single ombudsman can agree that the current set-up can and should change.

It's the Economy, Stupid

The downward spiraling economy and the shrinking cap is the big story of trade deadline day.

As the Globe and Mail noted back on February 12:

At this point, it looks as if the salary cap for next season will be within a million dollars of 2008-09's $56.7-million. That is because the NHL collected the bulk of its major revenue — season tickets, luxury suites and sponsorships — before the economy collapsed last fall. The cap is based on revenue from the previous season.
Of most concern to NHL GMs is the salary cap for the 2010-11 season. It will be based on revenue from next season, which is expected to be down considerably. (Well, expected by everyone except NHL commissioner Gary Bettman.) That is why GMs may be slow to make deals this March. If you are expecting the cap to fall to $46-million, say, then you do not want to take on a big long-term contract that will eat up a lot of your potentially shrunken budget in 2010-11.

There are two essential points here, one that's explicit - the shrinking cap; and one that's glossed-over - draft picks are the sole cost containment option for GMs.

A $50M salary cap in 2010-11 would severely constrict many clubs based on their current salary commitments, never mind taking on any additional salary via trade. Consider:

Philadelphia has $42M committed to 12 players, leaving $8M to sign 10 starters
Pittsburgh has $38M committed to 11 players, leaving $12M to sign 12 starters
Edmonton has $38M committed to 11 players, leaving $12M to sign 12 starters
Ottawa has $38M committed to 10 players, leaving $12M to sign 13 starters
Calgary has $37M committed to 11 players, leaving $13M to sign 12 starters
Detroit has $36M committed to 11 players, leaving $14M to sign 12 starters (including deals for Hossa, Samuelsson, Lidstrom).

And on and on...

While waivers are an option to clear cap space for those teams lucky enough to have strong revenues and owners with deep pockets, not every team will be able to bury $10M in salary with their AHL affiliate.

As the cap shrinks, salary containment becomes ever more important. Drafting and developing young talent is really the sole option for GMs to restrict salary pressures. With entry level deals capped at $1M, players have to spend approximately three seasons (depending on their age at the time of signing) in the bigs before they qualify for RFA status/arbitration rights. UFA status kicks in when a player is 27 or has accrued seven seasons in the NHL. That's not a big window to accrue talent and make a run for the Cup. The key ingredients going foward will be a strong collection of cost-contained youth and players outperforming their contracts.

Summing Up

When you combine a shrinking cap and a crumbling economy with numerous teams already in cap trouble what you get is a trade deadline day where few multi-year contracts are dealt and first round draft picks are a scarcity. In fact, only a single first round draft pick changed hands at the trade deadline this year compared to three in 2008 and seven in 2007.

While some may suggest Burke was a bust or didn't live up to the wish list of Leafs Nation, the economy is the big story here. Just as it likely will be again at the draft and then next September when teams maneuver to get under a shrinking cap.

Playoffs: That Joke Isn't Funny Anymore

I made the mistake of watching TSN on Sunday night. They ran a story on a loop re. the Leafs as playoff contenders and being buyers at the trade deadline.

I should mention that the on-air "talent" spoke of "playoffs" without any trace of irony. April fool's day isn't for another 28 days, so I have no idea what the producers at TSN were smoking.

The Leafs have gone 4-0-3 in their past seven games, earning 11 points in the process by beating the Islanders (3oth overall), Sens (27th overall) and Rangers (three wins in their past 10) and getting three more sympathy points from OT/SO losses to Columbus (16th overall and outside the playoffs), Vancouver (10th overall) and New Jersey (4th overall).

This isn't the type of win streak that playoff dreams are made of - only two of these six teams even have a winning record.

The NHL Playoff Predictor has the Leafs' odds of making the post-season at 1.2% - that's about 1% higher than I would have guessed. Playoffs and trade deadline buyers indeed.

In Defence of Ian White

Leafs GM Brian Burke announced that the Leafs were offered a second round pick for Ian White. Burke declined the deal.

Some in Leafs Nation have lamented that White wasn't shipped out for a pick, not sure why.

Despite being scratched for the first eleven games of the season, White is tied for 10th overall in the NHL in goals scored by a d-man, 23rd in assists and 25th in scoring. He's tied for 17th in plus minus (yeah, it's an admittedly flawed stat...)

At evens, the Leafs outshoot the opposition when White's on the ice and in terms of gf/ga60, White leads the Leafs in +/-

He's also durable for a small guy - he played in 76, 81 and 51 games over the last three seasons respectively (though that may have to do with the power of his moustache).

In terms of comparators, only Oduya (NJD) and Edler (VAN) put up similar numbers for less than White's $850K cap hit.

The NHL is an efficiency contest of sorts. The more players on a team that outperform their contracts the better and White is clearly outperforming his current deal.

Conversely, a second round draft pick has a 29% chance of playing 100 NHL games.

**EDIT**

Further to Lordosis' comment, here are some additional defensive stats from Behind the Net: Ian White has the second best GA60 on the Leafs D (fewest goals against per 60 minutes), plays middle of the pack in terms of who he's out on the ice against (given the injuries to the Leafs D, White's played way more minutes than he likely should have). He's third on the Leafs D in hits and fourth in blocked shots.