Pre-season Fever - Avoid It!

What we should talk about when we talk about pre-season:

Which prospects get a look early and, ultimately, get into more games.

How prospects play and perform as the pre-season progresses and the competition gets tougher.

What’s the waiver status on the bubble guys, who’s got manageable cap hits and who’s possible trade bait?

Who needs a second look, who’s in decline and who can the team hide put on injury reserve or assign for conditioning stints to squeeze down to a 23 man roster without exposing players to waivers.

Great moves in the shoot-out.

What we shouldn’t talk about when we talk about pre-season:

Won-loss records (last year's Stanley Cup Champs went 1-7).

Projected regular season points.

VUKOTA

Howard Berger’s incredible prognostication skills:
2007-08: Mark Bell is the NHL’s comeback player of the year
2007-08: Kyle Wellwood’s Absence - a terrible blow to the Leafs
2008-09: Leafs to finish dead last in the NHL

Leafs Camp Cuts: And then there were 33?

The Globe and the Sun are reporting that the Leafs have made another round of cuts at training camp, paring the roster down to 34 33 players.

Forwards
1. Allison, Jason
2. Blake, Jason
Boyce, Darryl
3. Bozak, Tyler
4. Brent, Tim
Champagne, Joel
Devane, Jamie
Deveaux, Andre
Foster, Alex
Giliati, Stefano
5. Grabovski, Mikhail
Greenop, Richard
6. Hagman, Niklas
Hamilton, Ryan
7. Hanson, Christian
8. Kadri, Nazem
9. Kulemin, Nikolai
10. Kurtz, John
11. Mayers, Jamal
Mitchell, Dale
12. Mitchell, John
Ondrus, Ben
13. Orr, Colton
14. Ponikarovsky, Alexei
15. Primeau, Wayne
Rogers, Kyle
Rosehill, Jay
Scott, Greg
Slaney, Robert
16. Stalberg, Viktor
17. Stajan, Matt
Stefanovich, Mikhail
18. Stempniak, Lee
19. Tlusty, Jiri
20. Wallin, Rickard

Defence
21. Beauchemin, Francois
Blacker, Jesse
Engel, Josh
22. Exelby, Garnet
23. Finger, Jeff
24. Frogren, Jonas
25. Gunnarsson, Carl
26. Kaberle, Tomas
27. Komisarek, Mike
Manning, Brandon
Mikus, Juraj
Oreskovic, Phil
Perry, Todd
Rogers, Andy
Ryan, Joe
28. Schenn, Luke
Smith, Barron
Uotila, Juha
29. Van Ryn, Mike
30. White, Ian

Goaltenders
Engelage, Andrew
Erickson, Beau
31. Gustavsson, Jonas
32. MacDonald, Joey
Reimer, James
33. Toskala, Vesa

The only player that seems quite out of place on this roster is John Kurtz, an over-ager from the OHL's Sudbury Wolves (who's apparently injured). Mike Van Ryn is also on the IR (I know, I know - I'm shocked too).

The CBA dictates that teams have to be down to a 23 man active roster the day before the first game of the season, which means the Leafs have until September 30th to make their final cuts.

Coach Wilson has said he plans on carrying 13 forwards, eight Defence and two goalies. If that is the case, the team will need to cut seven guys up front (Kurtz and Brent are no-brainers, Kadri is heading back to junior, which means four more guys have to go); 2 more D-men (or Van Ryn stays on the IR and Gunnarsson goes back to the Marlies) and 1 goalie (safe money is on Joey Mac).

Phil Kessel is a Leaf

The Leafs acquired Phil Kessel from the Boston Bruins for two first round picks, a second round pick and a reported five year $27.2 million deal that carries a $5.2M cap hit.

Kessel is coming off shoulder surgery and will be out until November, possibly December.

By the numbers, Kessel has put up:

70GP 11-18-29pts
82GP 19-18-37
70GP 36-24-60

That's a very nice progression with all signs pointing in the right direction.

That breakthrough year came while playing with gifted centre Marc Savard. It should be noted that Kessel's goals for 60 (GF/60) drops by about 40% when he’s not on the ice with Savard, from 1.246 down to 0.782 and the Leafs don't have any forwards with those type of set-up skills.

A few other things to keep in mind. Kessel plays soft. Monsieur Duvet soft. He had six hits in the entire 2008-09 season (that's not a typo). That works out to about one hit every 12 games.

He doesn't play the PK either.

Sure none of this will matter if he's scoring 30+ goals. But if that surgery didn't go well or if he's lost his soft hands, he doesn't bring much else to the rink. And that's a worry when the Leafs have committed over 10% of their cap to Kessel for the next five years, more if the cap shrinks as it's expected to do.

This is a difficult deal to evaluate, it seems to be contingent on more ifs and hypotheticals than the American's case for war in Iraq.

• Can Kessel come back from off-season surgery?
• Can Kessel continue to grow as a player or was his 36 goal year an aberration?
• Will the Leafs finish outside of the top 10, or could their first rounder be in lottery contention?

Ok, maybe just three big questions.

I'm not crazy about this deal and it's mostly because of timing. The Leafs have kept just three first round picks since 2000 (Tlusty, Schenn, Kadri) and the organization isn't exactly loaded with prospects.

Yes, Burke has done a nice job adding Hanson, Bozak and Stalberg to the club, but those players will be UFAs in two years whereas draft picks are RFAs after three or four.

The Leafs may have just gotten more competitive, but depth and salary control are the keys to building an elite club. Two things the Leafs gave up to land Kessel.

Cox Bloc II: Damien's Revenge

One of my favourite sites in the Barilkosphere was Cox Bloc - don't look for them, they're not there anymore. When Godd and Till called it quits last June, I thought it was a real loss for Leaf fans.

When they came calling on me a few weeks later and asked if I wanted to start a new blog with them that would examine those places where sports, business, pop-culture and bad satire intersected, I jumped at the chance.

Three months (and 4,159 rejected names later) the new space - zambonic youth - has finally launched. And if you love Italian Futurist jokes, you're in for a real treat.

I'll continue to post Leaf-centric material here plus a bi-weekly (or so) piece at Pension Plan Puppets and a slice of hockey and pop-culture with Godd and Till at Zambonic Youth every week.

I hope you'll continue reading and commenting here at bitterleaf (and, of course at uber Leaf blog PPP) - and I hope you'll venture over to the new space too.

Burke, Kessel and the Long Term Injury Exception

There seems to be a commonly held perception that Brian Burke and the Toronto Maple Leafs hold the leverage in the on-going saga of Phil Kessel. I’m not so sure.

Kessel, a restricted free agent (RFA), is looking for a multi-year deal north of $4 million annually while the Bruins have just $2M in cap room to spare.

It sounds like the perfect scenario for the Leafs. They tender an RFA contract meeting Kessel’s salary demands, the Bruins are in tough to match, and the Leafs get a 21 year old, 30+ goal scorer for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round draft pick. Not only that, but the Blue and White poach a key part of a divisional rival’s line-up.

Sadly for the Leafs, the Bruins’ cap situation isn’t quite that dire. Because of Kessel's off-season shoulder surgery, Chiarelli can use the CBA’s Bona-Fide Long-Term Injury/Illness Exception to park Kessel and his big shiny new contract on the long-term injury reserve list. Doing so not only permits the Bruins to go over the cap, they don't have to address how Kessel’s contract affects the salary cap until Kessel is ready to return.

Unfortunately for Burke and the Leafs, Kessel isn’t due back until late November or early December. which is more than enough time for Chirarelli to explore his options to find an additional million or two in cap room.

With the IR exception in mind, I can understand why Chiarelli is confident he can match any RFA offer and why the Kessel rumours have turned away from RFA offer sheets to a trade.

For those of you who hate plain language writing, the CBA explains it thusly:

50.10 (d) VII The replacement Player Salary and Bonuses for any Player(s) that replace(s) an unfit-to-play Player may be added to the Club's Averaged Club Salary until such time as the Club's Averaged Club Salary reaches the Upper Limit. A Club may then exceed the Upper Limit due to the addition of replacement Player Salary and Bonuses of Players who have replaced an unfit-to-play Player, provided, however, that when the unfit-to-play player is once again fit to play (including any period such Player is on a Bona Fide Long-Term Injury/Illness Exception Conditioning Loan to another league), the Club shall be required to once again reduce its Averaged Club Salary to a level at or below the Upper Limit prior to the Player being able to rejoin the Club.

Toronto Maple Leaf Roster: Waiver Status

I don’t think the much discussed (and increasingly tiresome) term “truculence” will be the big issue for the 2009-2010 Maple Leafs. I think the Penalty Kill (discussed earlier here) and waiver rules are likely to have a far bigger impact on this team than their new found ferocity.

Why waivers? Well, as much as I mocked the notion of significant competition in Leafs camp, the Leafs have enough 4th line talent that it's almost certain the club will expose several players to get down to a 23 man roster.

Burke may have "lost" talent to the waiver wire in the past, but it's one thing to find marginal players an NHL home (e.g. Mark Bell, Staffan Kronwall) and quite another when it's a Mitchell, Frogren or Tlusty that's lost for nothing - especially if that player is lost so an aging vet can get 4th line minutes. (Mayers, Primeau and Allison - I'm looking at you.)

Forwards: 13 Spots and 18 Players

With 13 spots up for grabs, who are the locks at forward to make the line-up?

1. Jason Blake
2. Niklas Hagman
3. Mikhail Grabovski
4. Lee Stempniak
5. Alexei Ponikarovsky
6. Matthew Stajan
7. Nikolai Kulemin
8. Colton Orr

If the Leafs are going to carry 13 forwards, four of the following nine won’t make the club:

9. Christian Hanson
10. Jiri Tlusty
11. Tyler Bozak
12. Wayne Primeau
13. Jamal Mayers
14. Viktor Stalberg
15. Rickard Wallin
16. John Mitchell
17. Jason Allison

Keep in mind that Hanson, Bozak and Stalberg can all be sent to the Marlies without having to clear waivers, giving Burke a bit of early season flexibility. Tlusty too, although he loses his waiver exemption status once he plays 8 more NHL games (good thing JFJ burned a year of his eligibility so he could play him nine minutes a night in 14 games).

I didn’t forget him, but Nazem Kadri isn’t making this club. Even a nine game look (10 pro games and he burns a year of his contract) means exposing another player on the team and I can’t see that happening so an 18 year old can have his cup of coffee.

Numbers Game on D

If the Leafs carry 13 forwards, they have room for eight d-men. Book Komisarek, Kaberle, Beauchemin, Finger and Schenn (in no particular order) as the top five.

Who’s kidding who, Gunnarsson and Oreskovic aren't making this team out of camp. That means one of Frogren, Exelby, White and Van Ryn will be traded or waived. My guess is Van Ryn will be traded (or injured), failing that, Frogren will hit the waiver wire/ be demoted to the Marlies.

Vesa and the Monster

If you think Burke spent the off-season travelling repeatedly to Sweden to woo a guy to play for the Marlies, raise your hand.

That’s what I figured.

Joey Mac will be seeing a lot of Ricoh Coliseum this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Waiver Status by Position

Forwards

Player	Waiver Exempt?
Jason Blake	No
Niklas Hagman	No
Mikhail Grabovski	No
Lee Stempniak	No
Alexei Ponikarovsky	No
Matthew Stajan	No
Nikolai Kulemin	No
Wayne Primeau	No
Jamal Mayers	No
Colton Orr	No
Rickard Wallin	No
John Mitchell	No
Jason Allison	No
Tyler Bozak	Yes
Christian Hanson	Yes
Viktor Stalberg	Yes
Nazem Kadri	Yes
Jiri Tlusty	Yes - 8 games remaining

Defence

Player	Waiver Exempt?
Mike Komisarek	No
Tomas Kaberle	No
Francois Beauchemin	No
Jeff Finger	No
Mike Van Ryn	No
Garnet Exelby	No
Jonas Frogren	No
Ian White	No
Luke Schenn	Yes
Carl Gunnarsson	Yes
Phil Oreskovic	Yes

Goalies

Player	Waiver Exempt?
Vesa Toskala	No
Jonas Gustavsson	Yes
Joey MacDonald	No

Competition at Leafs Training Camp?

One of the most common Leaf storylines this summer is the "more competition in Leafs camp" angle (Well,other than at least half-a-dozen or so ridiculous trade rumours - Brayden Schenn to the Leafs? Canuck please.)

With 23 roster spots to fill and maybe 28 NHL-ready bodies the Leafs have, if not a modicum of depth, at least some options at each position.

Let's put it this way: there may be competition for jobs in the Leafs camp, but it's closer to the cringe inducing early rounds of American idol than the Red v. White scrimmages at the Canadian Olympic hockey camp in Calgary.

Certainly, people are welcome to say “no jobs are safe” but that’s not remotely true. No top-line jobs are up for grabs at Leafs camp. In fact,most Leaf fans could name 16 of the 23 players that will be on the Leafs roster opening night.

The spots that are in question – the back-up goalie, 6th and 7th (and possibly 8th) D-men and a set of 4th line forwards – aren’t exactly game breakers.

Burke could invite 75 players to try-out for the Leafs and the club's spotty forward ranks wouldn't change much. The arrival of Jason Allison is just one more indication of how thin the Leafs are on top-line talent.

It should also be noted that this situation isn't exactly new.

An argument could be made that Joey MacDonald is just this year's Clemmenson (who was, what, the 2006 Aubin?). Wayne Primeau is a cheaper Mark Bell (or is it Boyd Devereaux?) and Rickard Wallin is this years’ Simon Gamache.

Let’s not forget, a year ago the Leafs entered training camp with 9 NHL-caliber D-men competing for seven spots and the club transformed that depth and that competitoin into Lee Stempniak and an 86 point season.

Something to keep in mind with 12 days to go until the Leafs' camp opens.