Holidays

I'm taking off for a week of sand, sun and surf. While my laptop is coming with me, there may not be any posts for a while...

Playoff Predictions - East Coast Style

**updated with Rick's picks**

Ottawa (1) v. Tampa Bay (8)

Largeheartedboy
This is the most lopsided series in the playoffs. Even without Dominic Hasek, the Senators have the talent and depth to put away Tampa Bay,which just doesn't have the special teams play this year to get out ofthe first round.

Senators in five

Rick
It is too bad Hasek's injury has made Ottawa fans even more pessimistic than Edmonton fans.I just heard that Ray Emery has asked Mike Tyson to the give the Sen's a motivational speech before the game tonight -- "Eat'm alive boys! One earlobe at a time!!" (Eat'm Alive - David Lee Roth's first solo album -- it was pretty good, Van Halen was never the same... sigh).

Bottom Line - Ottawa was my favorite team in the East all year (you’re welcome Keith) and they play a great offensive style which I love. Emery will feed off the playoff atmosphere to at least take them to the conference finals. I have seen it before when a top team coasts at the end of the year and then turns it on in the playoffs.

Every game may have more than 10 goals but Tampa is not hungry after winning the cup and they will be like their state neighbors in baseball, the Marlin's, and fade out of the limelight after winning a championship.

They will split the first 4 games and then Sen's will get on a roll and win it in 6 games and have a load of confidence going into the next round.

Fearless prediction - Emery, motivated by Tyson's speech, one punches Burke tonight into his retirement home and then does the same on Sunday with Grahame. The Bolts are then forced to bring their former goalie coach Jeff Reese out of retirement who despite regaining his old Maple Leaf form cannot carry them to beat the Sen's.

Mike

I was really hoping for a Sens-Habs match-up in the first round. It could have been fantastic hockey and fed a rivalry that, to my mind (and to the media's discredit) has been woefully underplayed.

I also would have preferred a Habs-Sens match-up as I think the Habs would have continued the Sens post-season misery.

Unfortunately, we got stuck with this mess of a match-up. The best thing that could come out of this series is a plane crash.

Neither team has a legitimate starting goalie.

Ottawa may be more banged up than Britney's baby, but I don't know what game plan the Bolts can employ to win this series. They can't try to run and gun with the Sens with Sean Burke tending goal (was his rookie year in the maskless era?). They're not going to hit the Sens out of the rink with the likes of St. Louis, Ryan Craig and Rob Dimaio. I don't know how the Bolts can shut-down the Sens either - they don't play a team defense game.

The other soft spot on the Bolts? Special teams.

Have you looked at the specialty team differential? Ottawa's fourth best powerplay versus Tampa's 20th ranked penalty kill - in the late season, Tampa's penalty killing made the Doug Carpenter era Leafs look like disciples of Lemaire and Lamoriello.

Prediction: Sens in Five.

CYA prediction: If Tampa can split in Ottawa, they'll take the series to seven games and I'll give even odds that the Sens immolate themselves once again.

Bonus prediction: After the Sens score 5 powerplay goals in one game, Tortorella will stroke out/suffer a grand mal seizure/ spontaneously combust on national TV.

Dave

Wow! A "mess of a match-up!" I love it!

Actually, you might be bang on, Mike, if the Lightning can't get some consistency going after an up-and-down regular season.

Dominic Hasek, on the other hand, wishes he could get up and down - then he might be able to stop the puck. Hasek's ailing adductor muscle has become the most talked-about body part since Janet Jackson's nipple, and you know what? I still don't know what an adductor is, and Oxford won't tell me. Apparently, though, Hasek has one, and it still hurts.

As long as that's the case (and with Hasek, who knows?), the hopes of the Senators nation rest on the young shoulders of Ray Emery. What is it with the Sens and "franchise" goaltenders? (We all fondly remember the Tom Barrasso era.)

So the question: Can Emery provide a Ray of hope for Ottawa fans yearning for that elusive trip to the finals? (And will it still count even if the Sens don't have to beat the Leafs to get there?)

Against the Lightning, it probably doesn't matter. Emery did look tired down the stretch, but he's still no worse than John Grahame or Sean Burke at the other end. Hasek aside, the Sens are finally beginning to get healthy again. Most of their defencemen are back, and Martin Havlat looked like a threat to score every shift against the Rangers the other night in just his second game back. Ottawa has perhaps the deepest overall talent pool in the league - so much so that Jason Arnason, the team's "heralded" trade deadline pickup, can't even crack the lineup right now.

Still, don't expect the Lightning to just roll over and play dead. They are the defending champs, after all, and the last few weeks I detected a bit more fire in the eyes of vets like St. Louis and Lecavalier. Their defence and special teams might not keep many opposing coaches awake at night, but this team still has a lot of talent.

If Tampa can steal a game in Ottawa, this series could be more interesting than many expect.

Prediction: Sens in six.

Keith
The most examined body part in sports isn't Hasek's adductor (which you can find out all about here, btw) it's the part of every Sen's fans brain that thinks their team is one screwup, one missed open net, one cheap goal or blown call away from abject disaster.

Mike, our Sens-hating but otherwise gracious host, did get one thing right: a Sens - Habs match-up would have been good for him (and maybe even for hockey in general) but a horrible, horrible thing for blinkered Senators fans.

Sure it might contribute to a Highway 40 rivalry, but, a week ago, with the Habs flying and the Sens stumbling I was convinced that a Sens Habs match-up would have been an early exit for my favourite club. In fact, all the intangibles seemed in order for another heartbreaking early-round exit:
• Opposing team with thousands of fans in the Capital? Check.
• Opposing team with a big enough media entourage to ensure Sens fans get (unjustifiably) enraged at slights leveled at their home town? Double check (just as a sidebar...thank GOD Sens fans don't have to read Jack Todd's analysis of their team for two weeks)
• Hot goalie on the opposition side of the ice? Check.

Then the Tampa Bay Lightning came along and stank things up.

Don't get me wrong, there are players wearing Blue, Black and White that any sensible Senators fan is afraid of (Vincent Lecavalier and Marty St. Louis have to come out of their season-long mediocrity sometime) but mediocre special teams and questionable goaltending should do them in, in the long term.

As for worry-wort Sens fans, we should all take the advice of the captain, Daniel Alfredsson who was recently quoted as saying: "Everybody's just got to relax."

Sens in five

Bonus Prediction: The Sens give up and early lead in game one (let's say 3-1 at the end of 20 minutes). Scotiabank place feels like a morgue until my hero Mike Fisher scores short handed early in the second period.

Dave

Yes, my Sens-loving friend, it might very well be a good thing for Ottawa fans that they dodged a bullet in not facing the Habs in Round 1. But before they rest easy and start cleaning the sludge off the canal for the Stanley Cup flotilla in June, here's a chilling thought: The paranoid, glass-is-always-half-empty hockey denizens of the capital might yet see their nightmares come true in round 2.

Since the above statement offers a pretty strong hint as to which way I think the wind is blowing, I might as well put my two cents in on the Canadiens-Canes series right now.

Led by the breakout seasons of Eric Staal and Martin Gerber, the Carolina Hurricanes had the best regular season in franchise history. They added the likes of Cory Stillman in the off-season and veterans Doug Weight and Mark Recchi at the trade deadline to help offset the absence of the injured Erik Cole. They have a solid, experienced defence corps. They swept the season series from Montreal 4-0. And on and on and on.

To all that, I say: Congratulations, boys, on a wonderful regular season. See you on the golf course soon.

Just about everyone who's ever met me knows how much I hate the Habs. (As a Bruins fan, it's in my DNA.) But I also respect them and the way they compete. Simply put, the Canadiens are the kind of team no one wants to face in the post-season. Thanks largely to the goaltending of Cristobal (Hip hip) Huet, they've been the NHL's hottest team since the Olympic break. Michael Ryder again had 30 goals, Alex Kovalev has the potential to take over a game and they have scrappy guys like Mike Ribiero and Richard Zednick who make life difficult for the opposition. Saku Koivu has the heart of a lion.

Don't get me wrong. The Canes are the better team and, on paper at least, should win this series. But the Habs have a peerless bench leader in Bob Gainey who knows a thing or two about navigating his way through the pressure of the Stanley Cup playoffs. They have a hot goaltender. And they have nothing to lose. See you next round, Ottawa.

Prediction: Montreal in seven.

Keith

If the Habs beat the 'Canes (and no, you're not getting my prediction until the END of this little blurb) I'm perfectly happy to face them in the second round. The rust will be off. The Sens will be used to playing with all their bodies back and healthy and Sens fan will be squeezing the remote with just a little less of a death grip.

As for Carolina and Montreal...is it ok to say that I just don't care?I mean, I know this is my adopted home town and all, and it'd be nice to see a Canadien team stay alive in the playoffs (as Mike has pointed out, we Sens fans, unlike Davey and his Bruins loving colleagues, have no pre-existing hate on for le Saint-Maillot) but I just can't feel the fever for this team.

Habs fans in Montreal love the game, and are very passionate, but, beyond Saku Koivu and Steve Begin, there are very few players on this Habs team that I find it easy to like. There are a ton more likable players wearing the Hartford Hurricanes sweater (with it's logo that Richard Labbé called "the swirling movement of a toilet flushing" in La Presse today) to wit: Brindamour, Staal, Weight, Recchi and even Mike Commodore, but who can root for the Carolina Whalers?

All that's left is to play the percentages. Carolina's the better team, but the Habs are playing better right now. Gerber's been shaky in recent starts, the Habs have their choice of two goalies that are going like gangbusters. Montreal is BANANAS for the Canadiens at the moment, Carolina's going to find it hard to sell out it's playoff matches again. And, to top it off, I haven't picked a first round upset yet (and it's pretty hard to go through the first round of the NHL playoffs without at least one, 1, 2 or 3 seed going down).

Prediction: Canadiens in Seven

Bonus Prediction: In a post-game six rage Bob Gainey kills defensive zone laggard and media whipping boy Mike Ribero with his bare hands (Stories months later quote the team physician as saying: "His pulse never got above 120, even when he ate (his) tongue"). To cover for his boss, Guy Charboneau dons Ribero's gear for game seven, breaking up two three on ones and scoring the game-winner in overtime. Habs fans are happy but Gainey's gig is up...

Dave
At least Sens fans will have the excuse of running into a hot goaltender (probably Huet) if they do bow out to the Habs in the next round. As for not caring about games involving Carolina, the line forms at the right... :)

Mike
I'm struggling with this one and I don't know if it's apathy or just a tough series to call.

The Canes have balanced scoring, great team speed, and a solid mix of veteran leadership and hungry youth. They're well coached, disciplined and played a consistent game from wire to wire. Gerber may be a bit of a variable, but no more than his counterpoint in the blue, blanc et rouge.

Montreal didn't have a single player score 70 points this year, were in and out of the playoff hunt and pretty much owe their post-season appearance to a Swiss goalie no one had heard of until a few months ago (memories of Steve Penny, anyone?)

Everything in this series points to a Carolina win, but I just don't feel it in my gut. This of course reminds me of that great quote from Nick Hornby's High Fidelity:

I've been thinking with my guts since I was fourteen years old, and frankly speaking, between you and me, I have come to the conclusion that my guts have shit for brains.

My shit for brains gut says Habs in Seven; my brain says Canes in six.

Let the brain v. gut battle begin...

Rick
Well I have to say I am surprised by the number of Habs lovers out East. They have become a small market team so I empathize with them but how can you find a weakness in Carolina? They have been consistently good all year long. I think they are this years Tampa Bay.

I paid dearly for not believing the Bolts were for real in my 2004 Pool and I won't make the same mistake again this year with Carolina, plus Dougie Weight is one of my favorite ex-Oilers.

Carolina still has enough players from their last run at the Cup plus their veteran pickups to take them far into the playoffs. Peter Laviollette’s success in this year's playoffs will be the exclamation mark on one of Milbury's dumbest moves in Long Island. And we all know he has made a few...dozen bad moves. (What do you think Milbury’s worst deal was? My vote is Jokinen and Luongo to Florida for Parrish and Kvasha - then replacing him with cocky Dipietro??)

Huet may steal a game or two but in the end...Canes in 6

Keith
If the Sens stumble, I think I like Jersey to go all the way to the Cup final this year.

As I said about Calgary earlier on, the Devils aren't exciting but they have a couple of dangerous scorers, great team defense and the best goalie in the world (who, recently and too late to save my fantasy team, has started to play like the best goalie in the world).

Does anyone think the Prague Rangers are better in any facet of the game besides offence? Does anyone think that offence without winning the defence or goaltending battles wins playoff series?

Anyone?

Thought not.

Devils in six

Special Bonus Prediction: Frustrated with a first round elimination, Jaromir Jagr and the rest of his Czech (team)mates leave the Rangers to buy the Penguins. The unrepentant Euros then spurn offers to move the club to Winnipeg, Portland and Quebec; instead rechristening the team the Brno Tučňáci.

Rick
Boy, if Jersey can get to the Finals then Lou Lamorello has my vote for coach of the year.

This team was dead in the Love Canal in January (mourning the demotion of Mogiliny?) and now they are the #3 seed is the East? Wow.

Rangers certainly missed Lundqvist and I not sure that injury will be fully healed until summer so how long he lasts in the playoffs will determine their success.

I certainly think the Rangers can win the series but Jersey has too much momentum.

Devils in 6.

Largeheartedboy
The Devils are the hottest team in the league the past few months, and the Rangers have looked lost in losing their last five games.

The Rangers will miss veteran forwards Steve Rucchin and Martin Rucinsky (both injured).

Look for Martin Brodeur to stand on his head and put theDevils into the next round.

Prediction: Devils in 6

Mike

The Devils - Rangers series reminds me of a pre-programmed match from Sega Genesis hockey circa 1991-92.

Neither of these teams strike me as being built for the playoffs - each team over relies on a single line to generate scoring. The Devils don't even have a point man that can put the puck in the net. Consider this: if here were traded, Alexander Khavanov would have lead the Devils D in goal scoring. Yikes.

Both of these teams strike me as being an injury or two away from certain elimination - the trainers may be up for the MVP award in this series.

If the Rangers can contain Gionta, Gomez, Elias - they'll win the series.

If the Devils can avoid the Rangers powerplay, or even just limit their chances, while cashing in their own chances with the man advantage - they'll win the series.

Prediction: Devils in 6

Dave

Philadelphia - Buffalo should be a compelling series.

It matches two teams with grit and toughness coached by a couple of the best in the business. Both clubs, however, have goaltending issues.

In Buffalo's case, Ryan Miller had a superb regular season, but he has no playoff experience. (But then neither do Huet and Lundqvist, and I've been singing their praises.)

The Flyers, meanwhile, don't seem to know who their No. 1 netminder is. Robert Esche gets the nod in Game 1, but I have a feeling Ken Hitchcock won't wait too long to go to Olympic hero Antero Nittymaki if Esche falters.

Still, you'd like the peace of mind of an undisputed No. 1 in the playoffs, a luxury the Flyers lack.

Buffalo won the series season between the teams 3-1, but I'm going with my gut in saying Philly will have the last laugh.

Prediction: Flyers in seven

Keith

I think this is the classic "Old NHL vs. New NHL" matchup.

The matchup of the Sabres' speed and the Flyers' size of the is going to be a clear litmus test for how the refs will call the playoffs.

To my mind, unless we return to 2004 officiating, this is Buffalo's series to lose. The Sabres are just too mobile, they can score in bunches and they're defensively quite responsible. The Flyers are too big, too slow and dealing with too many injuries.

Let's just make sure that if the Sabres actually do progress through the playoffs and (god forbid) win the Cup that Daniel Briere isn't allowed any champagne.

Dude doesn't look a day over 12 years old.

Mike

That's a great observation of new NHL v. old NHL, Keith, and it's something that we really haven't discussed in all this back and forth - what expectation do we have for officiating heading into the post-season? Whatever direction the officiating goes, I just hope it's consistent from period to period, game to game.

As for this particular match-up, the only playoff game I've ever been fortunate enough to attend was a Sabres-Flyers game back in the mid 90s. Half-way through the game, Sabres fans unrolled a gigantic banner from the rafters of the old Auditorium that read, "Hextall your wife's a dyke."

Shockingly, the banner didn't help and the Sabres lost to the Flyers that night and in the series.

Considering that the Flyers may be without Forsberg, haven't won back to back games since mid-March, and (surprise surprise) seem to be having an issue with goaltending - I don't know why I'm leaning towards the Flyers.

The Sabres will win if:

• They can use their speed against Philly's leadfooted D
• Their 3rd best powerplay takes advantage of Philly's horrendous penalty kill (26th in the league)
• Miller continues his strong play in nets

The Flyers will win if:

• Forsberg can play the entire series
• Hitchcock outcoaches Ruff
• A goalie (either goalie) hits his stride
• Philly can use their size to contain Buffalo's small forwards

Prediction: Buffalo in 7

Bonus Prediciton: Drury will score at least 2 of the 4 GWGs along the way.

Keith

Oh yeah, I forgot my:

Bonus Prediction: Dominic Hasek, bored with being unable to play in Ottawa, heads to Buffalo to catch the series between the Flyers and his old team. Cornered by Buffalo journalist (and Fan 590 talking head) Jim Kelly to, once again, prove that he's actually injured, Hasek dons his Czech roller blades and proceeds to beat Kelly unconscious.

Not sure why all these bonus predictions involve so much violence...

Rick
Despite Bettman's Sabre Rattling, I think that there will be alot more hacking and whacking in front of the net in the playoffs however they will still crack down on the obstruction.

Lindy Ruff is the Eastern Conference's version of Darryl Sutter - after all they are both Alberta Boys - Yeeehaww! And I think that they are the most cohesive team in the East. He stands up for his players and is a master at manipulating the media about slights against his team. His rant about Tucker's latest chicken-shit cheapshot on Hecht was classic. I can't wait until he and Bobby Clarke start jawing at each other during this series.

Ryan Miller is for real - I saw him play the Roadrunners last year in the AHL and he was awesome. Doug Waddell is as dumb as Milbury for not picking him for Team USA's roster. He is a little cocky too which always benefits a goalie except for maybe Rick DiPietro.

At the beginning of year I thought that Philly maybe loaded up with too many old style, slow NHLers and I am not sure I am wrong about that but they have Peter Forsberg and if he was healthy I would consider taking Philly but their goaltending is suspect, they have no offense from their D so I am picking Buffalo in a close series.

Sabres in 7.

Link

Avoid Paying for Past Performance

Wow, this is a man that needs more media training. Seriously.

City TV has all 23:41 of the newser here. (if that link doesn't work, you can paste http://www.pulse24.com/In_The_Raw/Raw_Video/20060420-001/Video-5-2.asx into your media player - I wish more media outlets provided raw feed. Refreshing not to have your news packaged for you. Thank you City!)

In all fairness, after watching the full clip, JFJ is for the most part excellent. It's no easy task facing the media hordes in this town. I just wish he'd emote a bit more and stop talking like a poorly scripted DA in a made for TV movie. It's hockey John - a game we love - no need to prevaricate like John Woo.

Highlights (or lowlights, depending on your point of view): Steve Simmons at 6:22; Total head-shaker at 12:20 (try to reconcile that with statements at about 20:30); Big no-no at 17:23 (don't argue, don't explain, just stick to your key messages); and an interesting exchange with Howard Berger at the 22 minute mark.


Link

Quinn Fired (Updated)

Breaking News (sort of) - Quinn was fired by JFJ at noon today.

You can read all about it here.

Media frenzy, speculation, finger-pointing, hand-wringing, belly aching sure to follow.

JFJ should also be shown the door, but I doubt he will.

Quinn is a good coach and a good hockey mind. I would have preferred to see him stay with the club in another capacity. I'm going to presume the politics of MLSE preclude this from happening - which is an awful thing to consider.

JFJ has pretty much bungled everything he's touched at the NHL level. He's done good, if not great, work in scouting, player development, cleaning up the Leafs' AHL situation. But he's been the anti-midas where it really matters.

Given JFJ's track record to date, I have little, if any faith, that he can make the appropriate hire to replace Quinn. The easy call is Paul Maurice and easy decisions are rarely good decisions.

Over under on Ted Nolan being cited as an ideal replacement on a fan discussion board? Gotta be within 10 minutes of the news being public...

**Update**
Should have taken the over - Nolan comes up 16 minutes post-firing at the Star; 23 minutes at Maple Leafs Forever

Link

Western Conference Update

Largeheartedboy:

I disagree with the worst front offices, any list that does not include the Flyers and Bobby Clarke is just plain negligent.

Mike
Interesting response - as the Flyers are averaging a cup final appearance about every 10 years and have knocked out my beloved Leafs countless times, I always think of them as a rather well run club.

But your point is well taken - how many times have the Flyers been undone by one goofy decision. Even if Mike Milbury were suddenly the GM of a few of those past Flyers clubs, he would have realized they were one strong goalie away from being a perrenial cup challenger. Nevermind the awful treatment of Roger Neilson.

It will also be interesting to see how some of the long-term contracts Clarke dished out to free agents this year play out - I wouldn't want Hatcher consuming 10% of my payroll for the next four years...

Largeheartedboy on Dallas - Colorado

Since Marty Turco shook off his early season slump and Mike Modano quitwhining, the Stars have been as rock steady as any team in the west overthe last half season, and I think they'll give Detroit a run for theconference championship.

Colorado's injuries (rookie Marek Svatos, defenseman Ossi Vaananen andveteran forward Steve Konowalchuk are out while Alex Tanguay is nursinga bad knee) don't help the underdog team, and neither does theunderwhelming play of its goaltending duo of Jose Theodore and PeterBudaj.

I think Theodore will blossom away from the pressure of Montrealand again hoist the Vezina Trophy, but I don't think he'll steal this series. As a matter of fact, I'll be surprised if he holds the starting spot after game 3.

Did I mention that blueliner Patrice "Breeze By"Brisebois averages over 20 minutes a game for this Avalanche team? Thatis not a sign of a quality playoff team.

Stars in 6

Largeheatedboy on Calgary v. Anaheim
I think this series is the tightest in the first round. With two stargoaltenders, Miikka Kiprusoff for the Flames and J-S Giguere for theDucks, the series may come down to the hottest netminder.

My money is on the Flames, who are building on their 2003-2004 Stanley Cup finals experience and have Jarome Iginla (6 points in 4 games against Anaheimthis year and my nomination for the best all-around player in the game) ready to explode in the playoffs.

Flames in 7


Link

Playoff Predictions

Something a little different today as I’m joined by a few other hockey fans to discuss the upcoming playoff match-ups and make predictions that I'm sure will be very very incorrect.

Taking part in the festivities are Dave, from the Ottawa Sun - a frustrated Bruins fan (is there any other type) who longs for the good old days of Cam Neely and Ray Bourque. Montreal-based Sens fan (we’ll forgive him) and PWI scribe Keith (aka Fatcitizen). Oilers fan and resident of the City of Champions Rick and all the way from Alabama, music lover and hockey fan Largeheartedboy.

Mike (aka BLF/MF37)

I'm glad we agreed to start with the West because, after the results of last night's games, I think that's where most of the really interesting match-ups reside.

First up: Detroit Red Wings (1) versus the Edmonton Oilers (8).

The Red Wings, winners of the President’s Trophy as the top team in the NHL, haven't missed the playoffs since 1990-91. The Oil return to the playoffs for just the second time since 2001-2002.

The Wings had 17 more wins and 29 more points than the Oil (although they do play in the Comedy Central Division); however, the season series between these two clubs was actually very close - both teams won 2 games, three of which went to overtime, including a Detroit shootout win in March.

So what do I make of the match-up? I have to admit I'm rather torn on this one. I'd love to see Yzerman win one last cup. Is there a classier guy in hockey? But, I also would love to see Edmonton actually make it out of the first round for a change...Detroit is no stranger to playoff upsets (cue the video montage with Borchevsky leaping in glee; goalies being booed out of town - Joseph, Osgood, Cheveldale; Maggie the Monkey from TSN; LA and Anaheim - California uber alles) but I don't think it's going to happen this year.

As far as I can tell, there's only three ways the Oilers are going to win this series:

1. Rexall Centre lives up to its name and the pharmacy outlet puts Quietude in the Red Wings Water Bottles
2. The statue of Wayne Gretzky in front of the rink actually comes to life, suits up for the Oilers, and plays like the Great One of 1988 (soon to be a major motion picture starring Emilio Estevez and Ian Ziering).
3. Dwayne Roloson gets hotter than hot and somehow steals at least three, if not four games.

I really want the Oil to make a series of it, so I'll call it Wings in six.

Keith

Starting with the west also means I have time to sleep off the celebrating I got into over the fact that the Sens get the Lightning in round one (Sean Burke, meet Daniel Alfredsson. Vulcanized rubber disc, meet twine).

Detroit v. Edmonton

True Story: I met Wayne Gretzky in the summer of 1981. The city was still going bonkers over the fact that the 16th seed Oilers had beaten the President's Trophy winning Habs (did the President's Trophy exist in 1981?) in four games. My aunt, who did bookkeeping at the Northlands (now Rexall Place) for a time, took me to a little reception where dozens of kids pushed past Warren Moon and several members of the Edmonton Drillers to get things signed by the then pasty-faced kid from Brantford.

Unfortunately for the folks in the City of Champions (tm) we're not turning back the clock.

The Oilers aren't beating this year's President's Trophy winners. It's not happening.

I've always thought the Oilers are one of those teams that is everyone's second (or third) favourite. It's hard not to like fast, hard-working, lunchbucket franchises, that play on the best ice in the league and skate like demons, but their goaltending isn't good enough (having watched Mike Morrison wearing Sens red and black I can see why he wasn't taking them anywhere, but has Roloson been that much better?), Peca can only take defensively erase one guy at a time (and he can only do that when he's not being counted on to score) and the Detroit power play is just too strong.

That said, the Oilers are just dangerous enough to make a series of it. I can't imagine Roloson pulling a J.S. Gigere and stunning everyone with the upset but I can't imagine MacTavish letting them roll over either.

Detroit in six.

Bonus prediction: Chris Chelios runs someone, let's say Ales Hemsky, out of the rink and into the hospital in game five in Detroit.

Rick

Keith - nice segue about the Drillers and meeting Gretzky although I am shocked that you did not want to meet the Driller's pillar on Defense and NASL all time all-star - Peter Nogly.

I am proud to admit that I am a soccer fan - it was much easier to get Drillers tix than Oiler tix in the early 80's, which was fine with me. Sleep-over at my Oma's and then walk across the street to Commonwealth to catch the game with my Opa while he told me about some of the great games he went to in Europe. Good Times ... yeah Good Times!!

Dave

The poor Edmonton Oilers. The 1980s must seem further away than ever for fans of the Oil today. Edmonton gets 41 victories and racks up 95 points, totals that would win many divisions in years past, and what's the Oilers' reward? A match-up with the President's Trophy-winning Red Wings, who feasted on their inept divisional rivals en route to a spectacular 124-point season.

OK, so these Wings aren't exactly the '76 Montreal Canadiens. Their goaltending could be suspect with an untested Manny Legace expected to start. But they have a proven playoff winner in Chris Osgoode ready to step in, and with skaters like Datsyuk, Lidstrom, Shanahan, Lang, Zetterberg, and ... let's see, oh yeah, STEVE YZERMAN (14 points in his last 15 games), they have more than enough firepower to give Dwayne Roloson fits. Roloson hasn't lived up to his billing since coming over to Edmonton at the trade deadline (8-7, .905 save pct.), and things aren't going to get any easier against Detroit in the post-season.

Maybe watching NBC's coverage of this series might make it a little more fun. ("From the network that brought you Joey, here's Pierre McGuire with today's installment of Hockey for Americans. Pierre chats with Hank Whitfield, who has driven the Zamboni at Joe Louis Arena for 807 consecutive games. He's a MONSTER!...")

If Craig MacTavish can get his team into the second round, he deserves a lifetime contract. It ain't gonna happen.

Prediction: Wings in five.

Keith
Seriously, what does McGuire smoke between his (calm, well considered, genuinely interesting) radio spots and his TV commentaries? Half the time he sounds like Duff Man.

Mike
Did you know both Edmonton and Detroit claim to be the "City of Champions" - see here and here.

I think there's a great municipal wager waiting to happen here - I foresee a photo op with an out of town mayor taking a wrench/ratchet set to another city's welcome signage...of course, the sign in Detroit is most likely:
a) bullet riddled
b) in Jerome Bettis' basement
c) missing since the Pistons victory "celebration" of 1989

Rick
First of all this series requires a mandatory bet with my Dad who has been Wings fan since the Edmonton Oil Kings were their farm team in the 60's. Remember those days when the Teams practically owned the players like slaves. Ted Lindsay can fill you in more...but I digress.

The Oilers finished this year with the most wins and points since 1988 which is also the last time they met the Wings in the playoffs. Can this be a coincidence? Is this a harbinger for playoff success? As per usual this town is split on whether the Oilers can get out of the first round. Can Roloson get hot and steal a game (which he hasn't so far) and will their young forwards become playoff veterans in a hurry. Peca is playing better and the Oilers can roll 4 lines now with Pouliot playing well but does the 4th line ever play in the playoffs? We all know Laraque has been saving all of his goals for the playoffs.

Secretly we are all hoping that Petr Klima takes the Wings on a tour of the all the old nightclubs in Edmonton and they stop at the old Goose Loonies Bar so that they can get liquored up before Game 3 on Tuesday. Jacques Demers will be able to read about it in Wednesdays paper...

If the Wings are ever going to get knocked out of the playoffs, we all know it would be in the First Round. I still remember the Ducks killing my Draft in 1994 when they beat the Wings and it was only because Cloutier couldn't stop a 6 hopper from the Red Line that they beat the Canucks a few years ago.

The Wings can be beat but only if:
· the Oilers stay out of the penalty box
· Roloson outplays Legace
· the Oilers forcheck the crap out of the Wings Defense.

Are the Wings still hungry for the cup? Datsyuk and Zetterberg were invisible in the playoffs 2 years ago and I can't believe Shanahan is a 30+ goal scorer again this year. The playoffs are different beast. All the pressure is on the Wings, we will see if the Oilers can rise to the challenge. My head says differently but my heart says....

Oilers in Seven!!!

Keith
Rick - I'm sure you're going to fill us in, but why do you think the Oil have a better chance against Detroit than Dallas? They're toast either way, aren't they?

Rick

After all of these years, I think the team and the city are spooked and tired of Dallas. They have always played Detroit well over the past few years and the players believe they can beat them. I am not sure it is the same with Dallas. My wife is in Houston this week with her mom and told me it was 31C yesterday. I think if Edmonton had to playing on the crappy ice in Reunion Arena or whatever is called these days it would be deja-vous all over again (I love Yogi Berra !!).

Keith

Kinda like us and the Leafs, eh?

Mike

Ed’s note: Keith means the Sens - I’m glad to see that Leaf fans aren’t the only ones that use the “we” pronoun when talking hockey.


Largeheartedboy

Before I make my first prediction, I have to admit that the NHL playoffs are by far my favorite sporting event. I grew up in Philadelphia and am a lifelong Flyers fan, but live in the south now and have become a regular at Predators home games and a fan of the future dynasty that David Poile and Barry Trotz have built.

Biases out of the way, here are my thoughts on the Red Wings - Edmonton series:

The rules changes that opened up offense in the league placed an even greater premium of special teams this year, and Detroit was first in the league in power play percentage and third in penalty killing. Added to their depth up front and on the blueline, Detroit will be a tough first-round opponent for the Oilers. The Wings' goaltending is surely their weak link, but luckily for them, Edmonton's duo of Dwayne Roloson and Jussi Markanen is no more likely than Detroit's Manny Legace Chris Osgood to steal a game.I would love for Edmonton to represent for Canadian teams and knock off the NHL's best regular season team, but I just don't see it happening in this series.

Red Wings in 6.

Keith
Another Wings in Six prediction.

Anyone want to talk about whether we're giving them too much respect? (I'm not just needling Rick, honest). If the Wings are as great as we all think they are, are we giving the Oilers the two wins just because they're gamers (I think I am...)

Largeheartedboy
As hard working a team as the Oilers are, I think they will force the Wings to beat them, and keep every game close. Legace hasn't proven himself as a playoff goaltender (only four career starts), if he gets hot I can see a five game series, but not a sweep.

Dallas (2) v. Colorado (7)

Dallas won the Pacific division title (which seems a bit odd considering where Dallas is actually located) and finished third overall in the NHL standings. Colorado looked like they might slip right out of playoff contention, hovering just above .500 in their post-Olympic match-ups, going 11-9-2 down the stretch.

Dave
Once upon a time (way back in 1995), a proud, stubborn goaltender for the Montreal Canadiens -- franchise superstar, the undisputed prince of Habitant hockey -- was left hung out to dry by his equally stubborn head coach in a game against the Detroit Red Wings at the Forum. After surrendering nine goals in 31 minutes to the visitors from Motown, the peerless netminder skated as close as he could get to the patrician president of the storied NHL club and growled: "I've played my last game for Montreal."

A few tense days later, the perennial all-star was traded safely away from the Eastern conference to the newly relocated Colorado Avalanche. That spring, he led his new club to the franchise's first Stanley Cup. Some say his former team has never recovered from the revered one's departure.

It was the stuff of fairy tales, a Hollywood ending if ever there was one.

Fast forward a decade. A Hart-trophy-winning Montreal goaltender is again traded in the midst of a controversial season, again to Colorado. He leads his new team in the Rockies to the playoffs, and...

OK, maybe this particular script still needs a little work to be believable.

No, not even Peter Jackson's best special effects crew could turn Jose Theodore into the second coming of St. Patrick. Whether it's the thin mountain air, the sight of Patrice Brisebois "clearing away traffic" in front of him once again or the wrong hair care products, Theodore has looked nothing remotely like the guy who won the NHL's MVP award a few years back. And that's why the Dallas Stars will beat his Colorado Avalanche in Round 1.

To be honest, though, I'm not really sold on the Stars either. I know they've got some talent up front with Modano, Arnott, Morrow, Guerin and the like, and a fairly solid defence. But I don't think Marty Turco has yet proven he's the guy who will carry them on his back to a Cup title the way Roy did twice in Colorado. And the Avs, don't forget, still have several players from those teams who know what it's like to hoist Lord Stanley's mug and would love to do it again.

Though Dallas won the season series between these teams 3-1, all the games were close, with two being decided in shootouts.

Still, Turco will be good enough to backstop the Stars past Colorado. Sakic, Blake and the rest of the Avs will have to regroup and try for another ring again next year.

Prediction: Dallas in six.

Mike
This one seems to lack a bit of heat or interest for me.

Colorado may have some pretty hefty firepower up front with 6 guys scoring 20 or more, but it's the goaltending that's looking a little shaky. As a Leaf fan, I know about shaky goaltending and neither Peter Budaj nor Jose Theodore would make give me any reason to book my second round tickets at the Pepsi Centre. I can't see the Avalanche pulling this one off with either of those guys between the pipes.

I think Arnott's contract-year play will continue. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Stars do it in five, but I think Sakic will win one game on his own.

Call it Stars in 6.

Keith

Top Five Physicians Warnings on the side of Jose Theodore's prescription for Propecia:

5) Side effects include drowsiness, dry mouth and family involvement in loan sharking.
4) Propecia may cause patients to miraculously recover from so-called "season ending ankle injuries."
3) So might getting away from the Montreal media
2) Les fabricants de Propecia ne sont pas responsables d'aucun suckitude à long terme
1) Persons imbibing this steroid masking agent hair care product will be eliminated by the Dallas Stars in the playoffs in six games

Seriously though, Dallas has balanced scoring, a decent defense, good coaching and a goalie with a ton to prove. The Avs have one of the greatest players of all time (Sakic) and a whole pile of question marks. I'm with Mike in thinking it might be generous to give the Avs two wins...

Dallas in 6.

Rick

These 2 teams have had some classic battles in the past - the 1999 series was great. Unfortunately, this is ancient history (remember the old NHL?) and does not equate to a good series this year.

Colorado is on the decline and will be lucky to make the playoffs next year. Their veterans are old and tired - Brisebois and Turgeon have had decent years but they will fade when the real hockey starts. Sakic and Tanguay cannot win this series on their own. Theodore should call Barry Bonds and start double dosing the steriods (err I mean flax liniment cream) really fast to justify his use of Propecia so that he will be literally HUGE in net (my Pierre Maguire plug).

Quenneville is proving that he is not the genius coach everyone made him out to be meanwhile Tippet has quietly built a cup contender. I am glad the Oilers play Detroit instead Dallas. I think this will be the year that Turco becomes a true superstar.

Stars in Five

Calgary (3) v. Anaheim (6)

The Flames won the Northwest Division with 103 points. Anaheim finished 3rd in the Pacific, just one point back of the streaking San Jose Sharks.

The Flames didn't have a single player hit the 70 point mark this season (Montreal is the only other team to qualify for the post-season without having a player put at least 70 on the board). While Anaheim seemed to flip a switch at about the 20 game point and just kept plugging along, going roughly 11-4 though the next three 15 game segments.

Dave
With all due respect to Jaromir Jagr and Joe Thornton, the National Hockey League's real MVP is playing in this series.

Without Mikka Kiprisoff, the punchless Flames might not have given the Albany River Rats a run for their money this season. Calgary won its division despite scoring only 218 goals - just 18 more than it managed in the NHL's "dead puck era" in 2003-04. But thanks to Kipper's stellar netminding, the Flames also gave up fewer goals than any other team in the league.

Calgary has a battle-tested crew and a coach in Darryl Sutter who knows how to squeeze every ounce of effort out of his players. But will that be enough against an Anaheim team that features a Veniza-calibre goalie of its own in J.S. Giguere, not to mention perhaps the league's best defenceman in Scott Neidermayer and a rejuvenated Teemu Selanne, who's playing like it's 1993 all over again? (Maybe he went to Jose Theodore's hair specialist and said, "I'll have what he's having.")

I never thought losing Craig Conroy to free agency would make such a difference to the Flames' offence, but I really think it has. Jarome Iginla isn't the same player he was two years ago, and part of it could be a lack of chemistry with the centre who feeds him the puck. (Everybody loves Daymond? Maybe not in Cowtown.) Or maybe not.

All I know is the Calgary Flames are still scoring goals like it's 2004. They better hope they can duplicate some of the same magic that carried them to the finals that spring, or they could be making a quick exit from Lord Stanley's tournament.

As someone who'd love to see an all-Canadian Stanley Cup final between Ottawa and Calgary, I hate to say it but: Ducks in seven.

Keith
Wow!Davey, is this your "token upset pick" or do you know something we don't?

Dave
You know I can't reveal my sources, Keith.

Keith
I know the Flames haven't scored, and I know they've been boring but does the new NHL eliminate the old saw that defense and goaltending win championships?

I think we all watched Anaheim go on that tear a month ago and forgot that they were pretty average before that. They've also been pretty average (or below average) in the last month. I'll tell you one thing, though, it's not a series I'm looking forward to watching.

Edmonton Detroit will likely be interesting/Dallas v. Colorado could have some nice end to end action, not so (at least as far as I can see) with Anaheim - Calgary.

FWIW, I like your Conroy observation, Dave. He's certainly missed in Calgary and good things have definitely followed him down to Carolina.

Rick
The Flames might not have made the playoffs without Kipper. Since the Flames got him, every team in the League is trying to find magic in a bottle with an unknown Finnish goalie ... right Dave Nonis -- WRONG !!

Quite Frankly the Flames scare me. I suspect that the playoffs will see a return of pre-lockout hockey and as David said, the Flames are still scoring at that level so that should not be a problem. Iginla has to pick it up though if they are going to go far.I am still shocked that the Ducks even made it into the playoffs considering most people thought they were done at the Trading Deadline. Brian Burke's ego will be even bigger now but I don't think that the Ducks have enough to challenge Calgary.

Teemu has been great this year - he was a sleeper pick in my reg. season pool but who the hell in Andy MacDonald!?!

Giguere is playing better lately but the Flames will remember how Ryan Smyth rattled his cage a couple of months ago and run the crap out of him.Flames in Five. Then we can watch Glenn Healy and Burke go at it again on TSN with their playoff commentary!!!

FYI - As a proud Edmontonian there was no way I wanted Calgary to win the Cup two years ago. However I did have fun writing "Sucks" on all of the traitors who had Flames Car Flags on their Trucks and everybody loved the Flames Girls website. This year I better not see any Flames Flags around town and now I hear that the Calgary Cops are going to tone down the celebrations on the Red Mile. Maybe the Oilers Girls on Whyte Ave will pick up the slack ... stay tuned.

Mike

To paraphrase an old joke, this series is going to come down to three things - Kirprisoff, Kirprisoff, Kiprisoff. This is a hard one to call.

I know that stats and history clearly demonstrate there's no relationship between playoff experience and success (just look at the list of cup contenders over the past few years Calgary, Anaheim, Carolina) but all I can think about in this series is Calgary's run the last time we had hockey.

These teams seem very evenly matched. While Anaheim has great team speed, Selanne is playing unbelievable hockey and Giguere is no slouch between the pipes, the Flames can counter with Sutter, the stingiest defense in the league and a number of guys up front that can score.

Looking for other advantages, neither team has a great powerplay (Anaheim is 15th, Calgary is 12th). Calgary's PK is 7th, Anaheim's is just 0.8% worse, which puts them at 13th. In terms of goals scored five on five, Anaheim was 18th with 136 goals. The Flames were 29th with 108. The teams even managed to split their season series at 2-2.

If you're looking for an advantage, this is all I've got: Sutter, the persona, has to be good for one win. Kiprisoff has to be able to steal another. That means the Flames just have to win two more out of five. Factor in the Flames' best home record in the NHL, the Ducks playing .500 on the road and four games at the Saddledome and the scales tip towards the Flames.

I'm going to go with Calgary in 7, but it's more of a push than any strong conviction.

Keith
You know, part of the fun of these e-mail prognostication thingies is disagreeing with people you sometimes barely know.

Since I know Mike, this won't be as much fun. Then again, it's not much of a disagreement. I was all ready to talk about how this one is bound to be a tight series, about how (as a recovering Canucks fan) I'm really happy for Brian Burke and how every hockey fan has to be excited with the resurgence of Teemu Selanne.

Then I checked things out:

• Calgary has won 7 of their last eleven (not dominant, but still pretty healthy
• Calgary has the better defense Calgary has the better goaltender (if not the best one in the league right now)
• Calgary has home ice (and one of the toughest rinks in the league to win in…only Nashville has more home wins, strangely enough)

Sure they don't score a tonne, but with Kipper in net, they won't need to, and when you add the fact that the Ducks are 4-7 in their last eleven (and 4-8 in their last 12) I just can't imagine this one is going to be as tight as Mike thinks.

Calgary in five.

Dave
BTW, I'm standing by my Anaheim prediction. I'd love to see the Flames make a repeat run to the finals, but something tells me the Ducks just might have their number. Then again, I've been wrong before. In fact, I'm probably wrong more often than not when it comes to sports prognosticating.

Still, Ducks in seven. You read it here first.

Nashville Predators (4) v. San Jose Sharks (5)

Dave
Perhaps Don Cherry said it best on a recent edition of Coach's Corner. When the San Jose Sharks traded for Joe Thornton early this season, they really got two players in the deal.

Obviously they added Thornton, this year's Art Ross Trophy winner with 125 points. But Thornton also managed to awaken Jonathan Cheechoo's inner scoring giant. Before the trade, Cheechoo had a pedestrian seven goals in 24 games. After Big Joe came west and joined his line, he potted a whopping 49 and took home the Rocket Richard trophy for good measure. No team in the West was hotter than the Sharks down the stretch (8-1-1 in their last 10) and the boys in San Jose have to be feeling confident. Vesa Toskala has little playoff experience in net, but he played very well in the regular season.

Nashville, meanwhile, has bigger goaltending issues with Tomas Vokoun out for the season after suffering blood clots. In fact, until yesterday, I can honest say I'd never heard of the man who's taking his place, Chris Mason. Thanks to NHL.com, I now know he's a native of Red Deer, Alta., who has played 44 games over six NHL seasons and happens to be celebrating his 30th birthday tomorrow.

Happy Birthday, Chris, and welcome to the Stanley Cup playoffs! Good luck. You might need it.

Actually, the Predators have barely missed a beat since Mason took over for Vokoun, with the new starter going 5-1 with a GAA of 1.44. Nashville's defence is pretty solid, and the Predators played well down the stretch, going 7-3. The Preds have a couple of top-notch skill players in Kariya and Sullivan, along with dependable journeymen Mike Sillinger and Yanic Perreault. The two teams split their season series 2-2, with two games going to overtime.

In the end, though, I have to give the edge to San Jose. The Sharks have a bunch of guys like Alyn McCauley, Scott Thornton and Scott Hannan with character and grit who aren't easy to play against, especially when spring rolls around. This one could be close, but I'll take San Jose in six.

Largeheartedboy

This is a totally different series if Nashville goaltender Tomas Vokoun was playing. With Chris Mason between the pipes, regardless of his success this season, this becomes an easy series for the hottest team in the west.

Nashville does have the toughest arena in the league this year, having the best home record. I'll take part of that credit, having seen many games in Nashville this year and rooting for my adopted home team. The crowd will be loud at their home games and the Predators' team defense and blue-collar teamwork will keep the team from being embarrassed, but Thornton, Cheechoo and company will come out ahead at the end of the series.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sharks ride their hot streak into the finals. Wait until next year, though, for the Preds...San Jose in six.

Rick
Boy this is a tough series to pick. The winner could go all the way to the Finals.

Nashville is a gritty playoff style team that does not seem to miss Vokoun .. so far. I kind of hope they advance and meet Calgary in round two. Those 2 teams hate each other...but I am getting ahead of myself.

Ultimately this series comes down to which Joe Thornton will show up - the Boston Beaner who has disappeared in playoffs past (no points in 7 games in 2003-04 and only 18 points in 35 career playoff games) or the West Coast Renaissance Man who is the Art Ross Trophy Winner this year. My ass is getting sore sitting on the fence on this one. I would be happy with players from either team in my Playoff pool. Joe Thornton aside ... when in doubt pick the team with the better goaltender and I would take Nabokov or Toskala over Mason any day.

Sharks in Seven...maybe ... ouch that damn fence hurts !!

Keith
Don't forget that, in that Montreal series, Joe was -- supposedly - playing with a rib injury that made it impossible for him to bend over to untie his skates.

Rick
Boo Hoo! Thornton should have sucked it up. The stars of this game have become Legendary by playing hurt in the playoffs and still contributing to their teams. A couple of broken ribs to Messier meant he only scored 2 points per game instead 3 or 4 and opponents only had to worry about getting an evil glare instead of a stick in the gut. And yes ... Messier is my favorite all time player.

Keith
Ahhhh...I was waiting for the first "back in my day" moment. Thank you Rick, for winning the prize ahead of me. (I likely would have wasted it on crying about Tony Tanti or pulling my hair out about Joel Otto being in the crease...)

FWIW, who did Mess have on his wings? It wasn't Mike Knuble, was it? Just checking...At any rate, yeah, Joe's a little laid back, but I think the proof will be in the pudding over the next few weeks...

Another side note, does anyone scratch their head over the fact that Cheechoo signed for five years at $3 Million per? How much of it did he give to Joe? Does the fact that the Sharks are essentially paying two salaries (Joe's and Cheechoos) for one guy (Thornton) affect San Jose's cap in some way?

Davey, you're a Bruins fan. What do you think of Joe?

Furthermore, does anyone disagree with my list of the worst front offices in hockey
4) Columbus
3) Toronto
2) Chicago
1) Boston - that Thornton trade is going to go down in the books as one of the worst ever...

Mike
Two words – Milbury’s Islanders.

Rick
You named the winner/loser there Mike.I actually like Columbus - Nash will be healthy next year and I think they can make the playoffs with a strong supporting cast of Zheredev on the wing and Leclaire in net.

Keith
Crap! Sorry I forgot the Isles.. (See that's why these things are usually top fives)
5) Columbus
4) Toronto
3) The Islanders
2) Chicago
1) Boston

Mike
Off the top of my head, my top 5 bad front offices/GMs:

1. Islanders
2. Chicago (I liked the Aucoin and Khababulin signings at the time...)
3. Pittsburgh (why did anyone think Crosby, retreads and an AHL defensive corps would compete this year. Rechhi was a -35)
4. Boston (they at least drafted Samsonov and Thornton and had a 100 point season before the stoppage)
5. Leafs (not one of JFJ's off-season signings worked out)

Keith
Not that it's much of a stretch to call the 4-5 series the best or closest of the bunch, but I'm really looking forward to this one (and not just because Chris Mason and Vanilla Ice - scroll half way down for the picture - were separated at birth).

Mike
I think Chris Mason looks more like Luke Easter from that awful band Tourniquet (sp?).

Don't ask me how I know these things.

Keith
Mostly it's because I'm a BIG Joe Thornton fan (not just because he was the only bright light in an otherwise dim season for my fantasy team) and I love the Cheechoo story (he always was top ten in the league in shots on goal, it's a measure of how good Joe Thornton is that he turned from a shooter into a scorer).

Nashville's fun to watch (add Steve Sullivan to the list of players I really like in this series) but I think it'll be the Sharks at the end of the day.

San Jose in seven fun, exciting to watch, games.

Mike
I really wish Voukon hadn't been hurt as this would be a completely different series and further proof that the first round of the NHL playoffs is one of the best sporting moments of the year.

That said, Mason has put up surprisingly good numbers in his short stretch with the Preds and neither Toskala nor Nabokov have really seized the number one job in San Jose.

I think this series will turn on depth and with Sullivan hurt and Zidlicky questionable, I don't think the Preds have the manpower to match San Jose on a line by line basis (oh to have Marleau as a second line centre). I also think Ron Wilson's got the coaching chops to get this team past the first round.

Sharks in six*

*I should admit that I gave up on the sharks back in January and traded them for Canucks in my rotisserie pool, so you might want to discount this pick a little...


Link

It all seemed so clear back in October

Way back in late September or early October, when I only suspected that JFJ was making a few mistakes with the composition of the Leafs, I sent an email to a group of friends and colleagues asking for their predictions for the upcoming season.

To make it interesting, I included the picks from a group of experts.

Before I send the picks back out to my friends and mock so many of their choices - Parise as rookie of the year? Iginla the clear fav for the Art Ross and many many disappointed Canuck fans...let's see how the experts measured up (click on the table to get a bigger view):


Seven of the pros picked Vancouver to be the top team in the West, five went with San Jose (including yours truly) and five went with Calgary. Interesting that not one person picked Detroit to be so dominant.

Ottawa was clearly the pre-season choice as beast in the east - with over half of the experts (nine of 17) - while five chose the Flyers and three went with the Lightning. Again, nobody stepped up on Carolina.

Clearly nobody foresaw 38 wins (and counting) in Phoenix (I'd disallow Kypreos' prediction as it represents quite a spread).

Some other notable misses - Donald S. Cherry picked an AHL player who ended up getting traded to win the Calder Trophy and John Garett went way way out on a limb to pick Washington not making the playoffs (did anyone think the Caps had a shot of qualifying for the playoffs?).

A fresh round of playoff predictions from the experts and non-experts coming soon...

Link

Khavanov for GM

From today's National Post (registration required):

If Alex Khavanov were the general manager of the Maple Leafs, he is not sure he would re-sign a 34-year-old defenceman with a broken foot....In Fact, the plain-talking Muscovite believes no Leaf deserves to have his contract renewed after the team failed to make the playoffs.

Link

The Last Goals I can remember

Larry Robinson on a shot from the point, game four, overtime.

A forgotten Minnesota North Star over a sprawling Mike Palmateer.

Sergio Momesso from 65 feet out (at least). Five Hole. I was on the floor in a university student residence, 500 kilometers from Toronto, fighting the static, desperately trying to maintain a weak AM reception.

Was it Gretzky from behind the net, banked in off Dave Ellet? I’ve had many groggy mornings warmed by a dream so palpable that I was convinced the Leafs came back and won.

Greg Adams (Greg @#%& Adams!) in double overtime. They scored so quickly, I don’t think I’d even sat down.

A warm spring night, sitting on my back porch, watching with the neighbours who brought their TV out into their yard. Gelinas chipped it in. It seemed like slow-motion. Overtime, game six.

Roenick with a laser to the top left corner. The ACC went as quiet as a Church.

Martin St.Louis, 10.7 seconds left in overtime, while the Leafs sat in their dressing room half a continent away.

Link

Tragic Number Update

The Leafs Tragic number is now one (it's actually a fraction due to ties, OTL, SOL, etc.).

The main thing to know is: if the Leafs lose another game in regulation or should Tampa win another game (be it in regulation, overtime or the much dreaded shoot-out) the Leafs are booking tee times.

Tampa's shoot-out loss to Carolina puts them at 90 points with two games to go (and a maximum 94 pts on the season). The Leafs, with 86 points, have three games left to play, which means their potential points total maxes out at 92.

In the event that the Leafs and Bolts end the season tied at 90 points, the Lightning make the cut as they'll have more wins (42) than the Leafs can collect to get to 90 points.

If the Leafs and Bolts end the season tied at 92 points and 42 wins each, I have no idea what happens next. I think the Leafs might squeak in as they picked up one more point (5) than the Bolts (4) in the head-to-head season series.

**Update** The National Post has a longer, fuller explanation here.

Either way, the table is set for the Sens to officially knock the Leafs out of the playoffs on Saturday night.

Link

Cups

Not to be a cup-is-half-full kinda guy, but I finally got a chance to watch the Leafs play last night and - was it just me, or did they look pretty bad?

Considering the Leafs are desperately clinging to their post-season dream and the Islanders dressed nine rookies and a goalie who hasn’t won since November 26, you wouldn’t think overtime would be in the cards.

The Leafs' turnovers were some of the worst I’ve seen (Ondrus didn’t see the ice again after his near terminal brain cramp – he’s lucky Quinn even let him stay on the bench).

There was no sense of urgency whatsoever when they had a 5 on 3 powerplay at the start of the 3rd in a tie game. Did they even register a shot on goal? Where’s the hunger on this club?

Let’s face it, if it weren’t for some pretty spectacular goaltending early, the Leafs’ dreams would have ended like Gatsby’s - shot down dead in Long Island.

Lost among all the horse-race media coverage of the will-they/ won’t they make the post season is the fact that the Leafs still aren’t a very good club. They struggle with basic defensive zone coverage, they clearly need better D for the 3 and 4 slots and they need to find that killer instinct.

My grumbling aside, any time you grab 16 out of a possible 18 points you’re doing something right and should be commended, but I just hope there’s an appropriate assessment of this team in the off-season. Given the ever-shorter news cycles, the ‘round the clock coverage of the Leafs and the long-shot odds of the Leafs actually making the post-season, I have a bad feeling that coverage and analysis of the Leafs is going to move from the horse-race to the glue factory pretty quickly.

As an aside, some of the women that I work with play this odd game where they come up with really strange forced choice questions for each other. The most recent one I can think of was: “Would you rather have a lesbian affair with an enormously pregnant Gwennyth Paltrow or Carmen Electra if she had a permanent unibrow?” (I’m not making this up and yes, I have a great job. FWIW the only time the three of them agree in this game is when Angelina Jolie is involved - be it as a hunchback or any other mal-formed condition - go figure.)

I bring this up because as I was making breakfast this morning, I actually stopped to think about what it must be like to be an Islanders fan.

In the spirit of my very fun, but rather odd colleagues, I wondered, for the past 30 years, would I rather have cheered for the Leafs or the Islanders?

If you choose the Isles, you’d have tremendous memories of those great teams that won the string of cups in the early 80s. You’d be able to fondly recall cheering for Bossy, Potvin, Trottier, Gillies, Nystrom, and one of the craziest goalies ever in Billy Smith. But then there’s the 10 year hangover known as Mike Milbury.

As a modern-day Islander fan, there would be teams I just couldn’t watch – I’d refuse to tune into any games involving the Panthers (Jokinen and Luoungo), the Sens (Chara, Spezza and Redden), Vancouver (Bertuzzi) – the list is near endless when you think of all the bad deals Milbury made. Never mind the whole Yashin thing. I’d have so many sleepless nights trying to undo those trades and re-building all-star rosters that could challenge for the cup that I don’t know if the memories of the early 1980s could compete with Milbury’s 10 year gong show.

On the flip side, the Leafs might not have Mike Milbury’s reign of error, but there are no Stanley Cup banners from the days of my youth hanging from the rafters of the ACC and my
Mike Palmateer hockey cards don’t have any pictures of the team hoisting the Cup or skating a celebratory lap.

What a choice. I'm glad it's one I don't have to make.

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Mod Squad

A bit of an Homage to the Mod Squad as it’s all Link day here at BLFP.

Unfortunately I was out at the rink for my first game of the summer last night and missed out on Sundin’s four goal, two assist night. TML Fan Blog has a summary and I’m sure one will be up at Raking Leafs soon.

I’ve never understood those who knock Mats Sundin. Anyone who can read the stats page knows what he's accomplished. A further review of those stats at the Hockey Project reveal he’s the most consistent player of the last 10 years and, in terms of all time high-quality consistency, he's in good very good company.


The Leafs tragic number remains at three. There’s actually a dedicated page that calculates these things. I should have known better than to try to do it myself.


MC79Hockey has some serious stats analysis going on at his site on goal differentials and playoff performance. His blog also features an interesting exchange with James Mirtle on the relative importance of hot and cold play heading into the playoffs. I would love to see more of this stuff in my local sports page instead of the usual quotes.


Speaking of local sports pages, the Toronto Star’s Chris Young was kind enough to reference my post on the Star’s interview with Richard Peddie at his blog JABS (and handed me the new nickname "BLF" in the process).

I should clarify that I actually enjoyed the Peddie puff piece. It’s refreshing to see another side to people who are often rendered in two-dimensions (if they’re lucky) by the media and fans. I just wish the reporter had either gone all fluff all-the-time or at least come back at Peddie with a solid follow-up question in those instances where Peddie was hitting his key messages like a political pro.


And to drift away from sports for a moment – the April 10th edition of the New Yorker contains two fantastic must-read pieces.

Malcolm Gladwell (talk about a guy on a hot streak) has a mind-bendingly good book review of Charles Tilly's new book "Why?" on the taxonomy of explanations and communications.

And David Owen chips in with a great piece on, get ready for it, Muazk. If you're a music fan, have any interest in branding or just enjoy good writing this is worth the read.

I have to say the $5.50 I spent on that magazine is the best return on investment since my last meal at Johnny Burger.

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Tragic Number

Four Three.
That’s the Leafs tragic number as of the morning of April 11th 2006.

Any combination of points lost by the Leafs and points gained by Tampa that adds up to four THREE means it’s all over for my beloved Blue and White.

So, if the Bolts beat Atlanta and the Leafs fall to the Panthers tonight, the Leafs will officially be eliminated from post-season contention.

Then the fun will really start...


Yeah, I failed grade 10 math and it's finally coming back to haunt me...

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Another Tip o’ the Hat to MLSE’s PR Department

Full disclosure: I work in PR. I advise clients on how to work with media, how to get their message out and how to protect their brands.

The puff piece with Richard Peddie in Sunday’s Toronto Star is a brilliant bit of maneuvering and a textbook example of what good media relations can do.

The client (Peddie) is getting trashed on every message board and at every water cooler. The talking heads all wondering about which heads should roll at MLSE (see here, here, here and here. Oh and here, and discussion threads here and here. The dedicated website seems to be down, but there's so damn much of it you can just goolge it for yourself.)

So Peddie does a sit down with a reporter – no more than four or five questions (most of them are softballs, right across the plate) and he comes out of the interview looking like a nice guy who would never meddle in the day to day sports operations (that's a fantastic quote Peddie offered up comparing his style to JP Ricciardi).

In terms of planning and execution – well done MLSE.

To the Toronto Star – I say shame on you. You call this journalism? You get an exclusive with this guy and you decide to ask him about his worst job? How does he answer his critics? His attendance at concerts?

If it was a condition of the interview that MLSE pre-screen the questions, you should have turned down the piece or put a full disclosure up front as to the terms and conditions.

If I was at the Star and had Peddie in my sights, here are 10 questions I would have asked*:

1. At the conclusion of the 2003-2004 season the lockout was imminent. How long did you expect the lockout to last and what was that estimation based on?
   
2. Toronto's financial clout was a real advantage for the team under the old labour agreements. What was MLSE's reaction to the NHL CBA and the hard cap?
   
3. Did you think all of the changes and new rules that were to be introduced in the 2005-2006 season would stick? Or did you have a feeling that, like previous attempts at crackdowns in the NHL, these changes would be out the door by Christmas?
   
4. Once the CBA was agreed to in principle, did JFJ approach the board looking to buy-out any of the existing contracts?
   
5. What was your take when you saw other teams in your salary bracket buying out contracts – Philly, Detroit, New York Rangers – to get more flexibility under the cap?
   
6. You mentioned that you’ve never stepped in to prevent a trade or a player move – have you ever encouraged a trade, a signing, a draft or any other player personnel decisions?
   
7. There has been much talk of “the Plan” going forward for the Leafs. Do you think the organization has effectively communicated what this plan is to fans?
   
8. You said, “I still think John Ferguson — John Ferguson's 36, 37 — has the potential to be a really good general manager.” Is that what this hockey market deserves? Next year will be the 40th anniversary of the last time the Leafs won the Stanley Cup. Shouldn’t this team have a GM that’s a little more seasoned and a little more qualified than a guy who you just described as having "the potential to be a really good GM?" As a fan, I want the best GM on the market, not a guy who has potential. As an organization, the Leafs are one of the most recognizable sports brands in the world, is a guy with "the potential to be a really good GM" the one you want steering the ship?
   
9. Is MLSE considering hiring a President of hockey operations? If no, why not?
   
10. It's been said that everyone at MLSE undergoes a review in May. Walk me through that process for the GM and Coach - what are the goals these individuals are expected to meet?

*In all honesty, I probably would have completely chickened out and asked him about what it's like to work for the Leafs and tried to score tickets or a press pass. Probably would have folded like a cheap suit after question 4.

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SOL

Make it 3-7 in shootouts for the Blue and White this year as they go down to the Bruins 3-2.

The Leaf shooters are now officially 4 for 24 on these game-deciding breakaway contests.

Boston went 2 for 2 in the irony column with Czerkawski opening the scoring and Boyes putting the Leafs on ice in the shootout.

Once again, I have to wonder why Quinn went with the Sundin, Tucker and Ponikarovsky trifecta. If I was at the craps table with Quinn holding the dice, I'd be wagering on the don't pass bet. I also have to wonder how a supposedly hungry team opens the game with 2 shots in the first 20 minutes. What did they think this was, a game 7 against New Jersey?

To date, here's how the Leafs have fared this season (and if anyone can fill me in on how to remove the three miles of blank space between this sentence and my table, I'd be really grateful.)

Player	Shots	Goals	Shooting %
Sundin	7	1	14.2%
Ponikarovsky	5	1	20%
Tucker	4	1	25%
Lindros	3	1	33.3%
Allison	3	0	0%
Wellwood	1	0	0%
O'Neill	1	0	0%

Stats Schmats

Some useless stats: The Leafs are 8-0-1 without Allison in the lineup and 4-0-0 when White scores a point. These remind me of the correlation of Pirates and Global warming.

One useful stat, the Leafs are 36-32-7 and their tragic number is 8.

On another note, as MLSE is never one to miss a marketing opportunity or the chance to make a buck I have the perfect new opportunity for them – I’d propose an Aki Berg model to start. The line could then be extended with a Todd Gill for those into retro/ old-school collections. Next season could bring an Ed Belfour, although it would retail for $1.5M and come with a no-trade clause.

What the Hecht?

Seems to be a lot of chatter today about the Tucker-Hecht tumble from last night’s Leafs game. After the game, during the media scrum, Lindy Ruff pulled a page out of Pat Quinn’s playbook and called on the league to suspend and fine Tucker.

I can’t offer much of a comment on the "hit" as the game was only available on Leafs TV and I refuse to give the Leafs an additional $2.49 a month, so I didn’t see it. (I’m not a cheap guy, but when you consider that the Leafs achieved an instant savings of $26 million through the collective bargaining agreement and then thanked fans with a 5% ticket roll-back - those $37 nosebleeds are now just $35! - I just can’t bring myself to put another $20 or so in MLSE’s coffers.)

A quick search of youtube didn’t turn up the footage (although it did turn up the strangest Pixies homage I've ever seen and further evidence that Titanica Rules!).

The on-line footage at TSN (free registration required) looks like it was either shot by one of Zapruder’s grandchildren or it’s a special-ed project using plasticine and stop-time animation. Perhaps this lack of quality footage explains some of the questionable disciplinary decisions that get handed down by the NHL.

In the absence of the Hecht-Tucker evidence, I'll offer up three quick thoughts on the Leafs shootout loss:
1) The Leafs are 3-6 in shootout games – considering there are approximately 3 shooters each time out the Leafs are actaully about 3 for 27. That’s like Mike James on a bad run. Isn’t it time for Quinn and Co. to consider sending out some different shooters?
2) What’s with the slow starts? Grandma Moses was quick out of the gate compared to this year's Leafs.
3) The shootout may be the most exciting play in sports but it really sucks on the radio.

Favourite referral

This has to be my favourite page referral to date

I'm glad to see Wade bought his parents a computer and web-access with the proceeds of his last contract.

THN's Future Watch

The latest print issue of The Hockey News features the annual Future Watch – a list of the top NHL prospects/impact players under the age of 25. (Is it just me, or can you still be considered an NHL prospect when you’re 25 years old?)

The Leafs prospects/impact players are ranked 25th overall. That may seem low given the hype the Leaf kiddie-corps has garnered this year, but as the Toronto Star aptly notes:

The Leafs have played 11 players who qualify as NHL rookies this season and all have displayed some potential, particularly the young defencemen who have come up from the Toronto Marlies. But even some of the players themselves know the Leafs are a long way from turning potential into impact at the NHL level.

To be fair, part of the reason the Leafs’ are ranked in the bottom third of THN’s feature is that, by setting the age limit at 25 instead of some lower (admittedly arbitrary age), Leafs players like Wellwood, Stajan, Steen and Poinkarovsky find themselves standing beside some pretty elite company, like Kovalchuk, Heatly, Richards, Lecalvier and Nash.

Digression #1: it’s going to be fascinating to see how reducing the age for free agency down to 27 will affect teams, salary structures, and player movement, especially as this next crop of impact players hits that magic number.

Digression #2: Considering that the cornerstone of JFJ’s Plan (the first rule of JFJ’s plan is - you do not talk about the plan. The second rule of JFJ’s plan is - you do not talk about the plan) is a build not buy strategy, you have to wonder how the suits at MLSE feel having their prospects ranked in the bottom third of the league? (A safe guess is it's the same feeling they get when they look at the standings and see the Leafs ranked 21st.)

It could also be said THN’s rankings are right on the money as the Leafs, the media and the fans seem to over-hype or over-estimate the potential of the Leafs’ junior core. Case in point, today’s Sun article “Young Leafs a Bright Spot” and the Globe’s near identical piece “Toronto Rookies Showcase Junior Class” (a tip o’ the hat to the Leafs PR dept for the fine timing and placement of this trope).

Digression #3: Despite these pieces (or should I say in light of the Hockey News article) any neutral bystander or hockey fan should be able to chip in with the observation that with the Leafs all but mathematically eliminated from the post-season, with the Stanley Cup drought one season away from it’s 40th anniversary and with apparent/alleged disarray among coaches and management “bright spot” might mean drastically different things if you cheer for the Leafs instead of say the Senators or Flames.

So where do the Leafs actually stand? Not surprisingly in the land of leaf-centric media saturation, it’s not as bright nor as dire as the media might portray it.

In terms of impact players (under or over 25) I think the Leafs have to rank pretty low and 25th certainly sounds about right. But in terms of actual prospects – that is young players who are likely to succeed in the NHL – I can’t recall a time when the Leafs had this much raw talent to draw upon. Let's just hope they don't trade it away for a veteran defenceman in decline...(Mr. Kurvers meet Mr. Leetch)

April Fool's?

When I logged into NHL.com to check the score last night, I thought it was some sort of cruel April Fool's joke. Guess I was wrong.

More on the Leafs and the psychology of expectation soon...