Showing posts with label Dion Phaneuf. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dion Phaneuf. Show all posts

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Dion Phaneuf's Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year

A few weeks ago I wrote a post looking at Colby Armstrong’s no good horrible year.

In the 22 games prior to that post, Armstrong had 3G 2A and was having a miserable season by any (and every) measure. In the six games since I wrote that post, Armstrong has 2G 4A, has chipped in with a shootout goal and played some pretty good hockey. (I've jokingly been referring to this turnaround as being “Armstronged” - when an observable trend or pattern reverses the moment I remark on it).

In the spirit of Armstrong’s turnaround, I thought I’d have a look at Dion Phaneuf’s no good horrible year.

I’m not a big fan of Dion Phaneuf. Just over a year ago, at the time of the trade, I wrote:

Dion Phaneuf hasn’t progressed as projected or in keeping with his (massive) paycheque.

His goal scoring production has declined every season he’s been in the NHL and he’s struggled the past two seasons. Many in the game have noted that his play away from the puck is poor and has been resistant to changing his game.

Among NHL d-men, he’s currently 9th in goals scored, 69th in assists and 42nd in points. To put that in perspective, his 22 points put him in a tie with Francois Beauchemin. On the D-side of the puck, his GA60 is a respectable 2.4, which puts him in the top third of NHL defencmen (73rd among the 212 D-men that have played a minimum 20+ games this year). On the Leafs that would place him behind both Beauchemin (2.13) and Komisarek (1.88).

And the Leafs get all of this for the incredible cap hit of $6.5M through 2014.
This year's numbers are even worse.

I actually thought he’d bounce back season this, but to date I’ve been very wrong. His poor play, abated by a deep laceration to his leg, is certainly borne out by my yelling at the television and the underlying numbers.

Let’s have a look at how Phaneuf has done compared to his peers. In most instances, Phaneuf is ranked against 230 other NHL defencemen, all of whom have played a minimum of 10 games this season.

Total

Rank Among D-men

Percentile

Goals for, on-ice, 60 mins.

2.44

101

44

Goals against, on-ice, 60 mins.

2.81

178

77

GFGAON/60 Differential

-0.37

147

64

ES G/60

0.12

105

46

ES A/60

0.36

158

69

ES PTS/60

0.49

161

70

PP Goals/60

0

77

33

PP Assists/60

1.93

83

36

PP Points/60

1.93

101

43

Shots at net/game*

4.43

4

2

Shots on net/game

2.93

5

2

Shooting accuracy*

66%

139

60

Shooting percentage (goals/shots on goal)

1.2%

163

71

Total shoooting percentage (goals/all shots)*

0.80%

163

71

Hits/Game

2.43

22

10

Blocked Shots/Game

1.54

102

44

Penalties Drawn/60

0.4

100

43

Penalties Taken/60

0.7

125

54

Penalty Differential

-0.3

104

45

CORSI

0.7

100

43



Phaneuf cracks the top 10 in just three categories - shots at net, shots on net and hits per game. In all others, he's decidely middle of the pack. His point totals, just 3 goals in 54 games and none at the ACC, are disappointing to say the least.

Most disturbing has to be the rate at which the Leafs get scored against with Phaneuf on the ice. Sure the Leafs haven't had outstanding goaltending this season or last, but for the Leafs' so-called #1 defenceman to be ranked 178th out of 230 d-men in goals against per 60 minutes? That's inexcusable.

All of this said, there’s nothing I’d like more than for Phaneuf to find his game and grab the mantle as the Leafs’ on-ice leader and #1 defenceman. I have my doubts, but Phaneuf might "Armstrong" me yet.

*only includes shots on net and missed shots, does NOT include blocked shots.

Tuesday, November 02, 2010

FMU

When I wrote about the Leafs social media strategy for the Maple Leafs Annual I focused almost exclusively on their use of twitter, facebook and their proprietary on-line site "LeafsSpace." I didn't look at their actual on-line content.


MLSE, more specifically the Leafs' web-presence, does a few things very well. The Game in Six is one of my favourite features and I love that they put up video of media conferences, post-game scrums and Ron Wilson's newsers unfiltered. While I'm not a huge fan of the more creative videos done by Steve Dangle, I'm not exactly the target demographic and I've got to give them credit for being creative and trying something new.

When it comes to the written content, that's another story. It stinks. I'm talking ancient hockey gloves moldering at the bottom of an old hockey bag stinks.

To provide textual content, MLSE hired Mike Ulmer, a former Sun columnist, to write "blog" entries about each of MLSE's sports properties.

I think it's great that MLSE wants to provide unique on-line content. Let's face it, they are in direct competition for page views with the on-line sports pages, blogs and a handful of Leaf-centric on-line communities. If they're going to get their share of eyeballs, they need to give readers fresh and compelling content and an actual reason to frequent MLSE sites.

Strategically, MLSE is right on target, tactically it's nothing short of a gong show.

Ulmer's recent piece "10 responses to 'plan the parade jokes'" was like a drunken first draft scribbled on the back of a beer coaster, found the next morning crumpled in a front pocket and mistakenly posted to the web. It was about as funny, clever and hockey-centric as a Cathy comic strip.

His most recent entry, a so-called defense of Dion Phaneuf misses the mark worse than one of Dion's patented bombs from the blue line.

I think Phaneuf is what he is: an above average d-man who's throws a lot of hits, blocks shots, has a terrible shooting percentage and is vastly overpaid. If I had to defend him, Ulmer's piece is not the way I'd go about it.

Let's have a look...
1. Dion Phaneuf hasn’t been very good.
Is that so...
Yeah...with an opening like that, let's hope Ulmer is saving his best stuff for last.
2. He can’t hit the net.
Hardly. Only one other defenceman, (Atlanta’s Dustin Byfuglien) has more shots.
A few problems here.
1. Phaneuf is third in the league in shots behind Steve Montador and Duncan Keith;
2. Having a high shot total and actually hitting the net aren't the same thing; and
3. In point of fact, Phaneuf can't hit the net: he's taken 32 shots and hit the net just 22 times, an accuracy rating that puts him 135th among NHL d-men.
3. He can’t defend.
Well, he’s the ice-time leader on a defence that has lowered its goals against by almost a goal a game, from 3.21 to 2.30. They’re sixth in the league in defence. If he is sabotaging things, he has been very sneaky.
Great points by Ulmer, one downside: Phaneuf's goals against/60 is 3.23, which is nearly one goal higher than the team's goals against average. That GA/60 puts Phaneuf in the lower third of the league - 167 th out of 199 D-men that have averaged 10 minutes or more of ice time in at least 4 games this season. Sure, he's facing some tough competition, but those aren't good defensive numbers.
4. He sometimes takes himself out of position when he tries for a big hit.
Fair comment. Imagine a defenceman wanting to hit someone at centre ice. What is Bob Baun doing these days?
If I was going to defend Dion here, I too would start out by saying that this is a fair assessment of his play, but I might also be tempted to point out that Dion was among the top 10 D-men in the NHL for hits last year and that he's 12th in the NHL to date. He's obviously landing way more hits than he's missing. But maybe that's just me. Can't go wrong with a Bobby Baun joke...

5. He’s peaked.
He’s 25. I don’t think so. I’ve peaked.
Truer words...
6. He will never score 20 goals as he did in Calgary.
Right again. I wonder if it’s because Phaneuf is the focus of every team’s penalty kill. They must be making shin pads of sterner stuff over the last few years because players rush at Phaneuf as if he were a free round of golf.
Phaneuf may never hit 20 goals again and that's ok. How many D-men in the league are capable of putting up those totals? If he can start hitting the net and get close to his career average shooting percentage he should be good for 15 goals a year. As for being the focus of every teams' PK, if that is the case (not sure I believe it), isn't that an opportunity for Phaneuf to put up great assist totals or for the Leafs to adapt to this tactic to revitalize their moribund PP.

7. Why doesn’t he just pass on the powerplay?
To Tomas Kaberle? Seriously, you have a team with a hole in the middle you could park a Hummer in. The first two pivots have one goal between them. Naturally enough, the power play has fallen to the bottom third of the league. The penalty kill is 11th. Let’s see, one special team requires scoring, the other defence. Phaneuf is a mainstay on both teams. It’s like I say about the Almighty. If you are going to blame the Man for the bad things, you have to credit Him for the good. It’s called the Theory of the Divine Defenceman.
Oh snap. I hope Kaberle's dad doesn't read Ulmer's blog. Or maybe Phaneuf could pass to one of the forwards since the other team are supposedly keying on him and taking away his shooting lanes. Just a thought.
8. He’s not a good captain
He didn’t look bad 10 days ago.
Meh. I'm not in the room. I wouldn't have put the C on his chest but I doubt that letter has anything to do with Phaneuf's inability to hit the net with his shots, make better passes on the PP or with his propensity to chase other players behind his own net.

9. He hasn’t scored.
Also true. Here are some names: Nik Lidstrom, Duncan Keith, Bryan McCabe, Dan Boyle, Shea Webber, Mike Green, PK Subban, Ed Jovanovski and Drew Doughty. None of these players have scored more than one goal. I have always said if you’re going to fail, don’t fail alone.

I'm surprised Ulmer didn't go with the "Hey, Sheldon Souray is in Hershey" defence here. As for the other d-men Ulmer listed, they may only have one goal, but it's still one more than Phaneuf. Many of them are putting up points - Lidstrom has 10 assists, Keith has 11. Few of them are getting paid $6.5 million either. Phaneuf's has just 2 goals in 36 games as a Leaf, how does that compare with the company Ulmer's put him in?
10. He keeps shooting wide.
Well, there aren’t too many places to put the puck when a six-four defenceman is sprawling in your way. Compare Byfuglien again. He has a directed 7.7 shots at the net a night: that’s a combination of shots, misses and shots that are blocked. Phaneuf has directed 9.3 shots. It’s tough to criticize a player who is second in the league in shots by a defenceman for not hitting the net. You can fault him for an elevated shots attempted figure, I suppose, although I always thought the idea was to direct as many shots at the net as possible.

Anyone else think we've covered this already? That maybe Ulmer couldn't come up with a 10th complaint so he recycled a variation of his 2, 7 and 9 complaints? Why go with a criticism that immediately reminds me that Phaneuf has just 2 goals in 36 games as a Leaf, was 129th in shooting accuracy last year and is down to 136th this year?

If I was going to write a defense of Phaneuf, I'd look at the Leafs' improved PK, the Leafs ability to limit shots this year, and maybe penalties drawn vs. taken. Something that plays to the guy's strengths. Oh, and access - Ulmer writes for the Leafs. Maybe he hasn't posted his Bruce Dowbiggin mandated $10K bond, but you'd think he might get a quote or two from Phaneuf's team mates about what Dion does well; a line from a coach, GM or scout or even from guys who don't like to play against Phaneuf. Or you could go with the Bobby Baun joke.

Monday, June 14, 2010

The Phaneuf Era

Darryl Sittler, Rick Vaive, Wendel Clark, Doug Gilmour, Mats Sundin and Dion Phaneuf.

One of these things is not like the other.

On Monday, June 14th Dion Phaneuf was announced as the newest captain of my beloved Toronto Maple Leafs. To mark the occasion, Phaneuf read from prepared remarks with all the earnestness and awkwardness of a grade four student's first speech arts class.

I think Phaneuf is a serviceable hockey player. Coach Ron Wilson and GM Brian Burke are rather enamoured with him and their opinion counts for a whole lot more than mine. But I do have two concerns with Phaneuf wearing the C.

  1. A one-time Norris trophy nominee, Phaneuf needs to re-establish his game as one of the premiere d-men in the NHL. Is the added responsibility and pressure of being captain going to help or hinder him?
  2. Does he have the softer, off-ice skills to be the face of the Leaf franchise?
Restoring his game

Phaneuf's point totals have declined year over year for two straight seasons and his goals have been in decline for three straight. He's gone from a Norris nominated defenceman to being traded to the Leafs for an assorted pile of meh.

Given the voraciousness and non-stop coverage of the Toronto media market, is piling yet more expectations on Phaneuf's shoulders the best way for him to get his so-called game back?

Phaneuf responded to the media and overall attention of playing in hockey-mad Toronto by scoring 2 goals in 26 games, that's despite playing over 26 minutes a night.

To my eyes, he didn't appear to thrive on the new pressure and attention of playing in TO, but it's not like I have game film of his last few years in Calgary. (It should also be noted that he shot an abysmal 2.3% in Toronto and will likely regress to his norm of about 6% next year. No doubt, many will ascribe his renewed goal scoring production to the bright shiny C that has been freshly affixed to the front of his jersey. Don't believe it).

Phaneuf desperately needs to get his A-game back. I'm not sure giving him more pressure, more spotlight and more expectations is the best way for to help make that happen.

Handling the spotlight

My second concern with Phaneuf as captain is somewhat related, but rather than getting his own game back on track in this hockey mad market, I wonder if he has the stuff to be the so-called player face of the franchise.

If his speech at the newser is anything to go by, this is not a man that will impress in the scrums, shield his fellow players when they need it or distract the media hordes when things on the ice aren't going well. He may steal the pucks to draw media attention away from a loss, but I have the feeling he'd do it in warm-up.

Maybe it's just me, but I prefer my leaders to be a bit more cerebreal or for them to burn with a passion for hockey. When I looked in Wendel Clark's or Doug Gimour's eyes, I got the feeling they'd do anything to win. When I look in Dion's eyes, I get the feling he's having trouble sounding out a multi-syllabic compound word.

I don't suppose it matters much. The Leafs won't get better until the get more talent and several great players have worn the C in Toronto while the team crashed and burned.

One look around the NHL at the list of captains doesn't leave much to be impressed, or alternately, worried about.

How many Leaf Captains?

The Globe and Mail said Phaneuf is the 17th captain of the Leafs; the CBC said he's the 18th...here's the wiki list:
  1. Bert Corbeau, 1927
  2. Hap Day, 1927–37
  3. Charlie Conacher, 1937–38
  4. Red Horner, 1938–40
  5. Syl Apps, 1940–43
  6. Bob Davidson, 1943–45
  7. Ted Kennedy, 1948–55
  8. Sid Smith, 1955–56
  9. Jimmy Thomson, 1956–57
    Ted Kennedy, 1957
  10. George Armstrong, 1957–69
  11. Dave Keon, 1969–75
  12. Darryl Sittler, 1975–79
  13. Rick Vaive, 1982–86
  14. Rob Ramage, 1989–91
  15. Wendel Clark, 1991–94
  16. Doug Gilmour, 1994–97
  17. Mats Sundin, 1997–2008
  18. Dion Phaneuf, 2010
I do wonder what the correct total is?