Leafs Trade Analysis: Two Loonies for a Twonie

On Sunday, Leafs GM Brian Burke pulled off two trades:

Vesa Toskala and Jason Blake to Anaheim for J.S. Giguere.

Matt Stajan, Niklas Hagman, Jamal Mayers and Ian White for Dion Phaneuf, Frederik Sjostrom and prospect Keith Aulie.

At this point, I've got way more questions than answers...

Anaheim

Giguere for Blake and Toskala is like a twonie for two loonies.

I’m glad Toskala and Blake are gone, but I’m not expecting anything from Giguere. He’s had below average numbers for two-seasons running and is unlikely to improve next year when there’s a further crackdown on the size of goaltending gear.

With little to no goaltending options on the UFA market this summer, Burke has ostensibly bought one more year of slightly below-average goaltending.

Dion Phaneuf

Dion Phaneuf hasn’t progressed as projected or in keeping with his (massive) paycheque.

His goal scoring production has declined every season he’s been in the NHL and he’s struggled the past two seasons.

Many in the game have noted that his play away from the puck is poor and has been resistant to changing his game.

Among NHL d-men, he’s currently 9th in goals scored, 69th in assists and 42nd in points. To put that in perspective, his 22 points put him in a tie with Francois Beauchemin.

On the D-side of the puck, his GA60 is a respectable 2.4, which puts him in the top third of NHL defencmen (73rd among the 212 D-men that have played a minimum 20+ games this year). On the Leafs that would place him behind both Beauchemin (2.13) and Komisarek (1.88).

And the Leafs get all of this for the incredible cap hit of $6.5M through 2014.

Wait.

That can’t be right.

Phaneuf is 73rd in GAON/60. 42nd in Points and he has the 8th highest cap hit among d-men in the league?!?

Wow.

Was Glen Sather a consultant to Sutter on that contract?

Cap Space Moving Forward: 2010-11

At $25M+ the Leafs have a whole lot of dollars tied up on six blue liners next season.

In net, the Leafs have $6M allotted for Giguere while Jonas Gustavsson is an RFA.

Up-front the Leafs have just four guys under contract guys (Kessel, Gustavsson, Sjostrom and Orr) and they’ll cost the club $10.1M in salary with a passel of RFAs and UFAs still to sort out.

Fold in the Darcy Tucker buy-out and the Leafs have $42M+ in committed salaries for 2010-11.

If the cap stays neutral, the Leafs have about $14M to sign 9 forwards and a back-up goalie, which averages out to about $1.4M per signing.

Clearly, something’s got to give here.

The big question, just like every year since the lock-out, is who gets moved from the Leafs blue-line to provide some help up front?

Player Development

Draft and develop has become a bit of a mantra in the NHL. The Leafs don’t really do the former and the latter - development - is where the fall-out from today’s deals could really hit this club.

In an effort to in-fill the forward lines and find some offence, the development curve for all of the Leafs youngsters just got a whole lot steeper.

Hanson, Bozak and Stalberg won’t have the luxury of a year in the “A” with spot duty on the Leafs to develop. They’ll be eating real minutes over the next 30 games.

Given all the holes to fill up front, and the limited resources to do so, there’s also a real chance Nazem Kadri gets a shot a next season right out of the OHL. No AHL development time for the London Knight (and a year of his entry level deal cashed in too).

Of course, the Leafs could run with veteran UFAs on one-year contracts to buy their kids more development time – while that's something I hope the Burke-Nonis brain trust explores, I don't see it happening (I got no proof, just what my guy gut says).

2012: AKA The fine print

Here comes the giant caveat: with the CBA set to expire in 2011, this whole issue of contract hits and cap room could quickly become moot. Phaneuf’s contract, and the Leafs’ salary cap situation, becomes eminently more manageable if there’s any type of luxury tax or an NBA-like luxury tax amnesty provision.

Until then, I'm treating the rest of this season as a 30 game exhibition schedule: the games don't count, it's all about evaluating talent.

Matt Stajan: Putting a Price on #14

Matt Stajan is having a career year playing on a line with Phil Kessel.

Stajan's emergence comes at an interesting time. As a pending UFA in a contract year one has to wonder if the Leafs can afford to keep him or, given his chemistry with Kessel, can they afford to let him go?

One unintended consequence of landing Kessel could very well be Stajan getting priced out of the Leafs' plans.

Boxcars

Before Kessel was healthy enough to join the Leafs, Stajan was putting up points at an 0.58 per game (ppg) rate. Good for a 48 point season. Since being given the plumb assignment of centering Kessel, his production has nearly doubled to a very impressive 0.98 ppg. Pairing up with Kessel has put Stajan on pace for 65 points with career highs in both goals and assists.

Determining Value

I have no idea what transpires between players, agents and GMs, but with Stajan on pace for 65 points this year, all signs point to a hefty raise. Factor in a thin crop of UFA centres – demand exceeding supply – and it's a safe bet that Stajan will be Oprah rich.

In order to get an idea of the compensation Stajan might be in line for, I took a look at the types of contracts signed by Stajan's peers in 2009, that is unrestricted free agent forwards, in their 20s, that scored in the 50 to 65 point band. Here's a quick look at Stajan's comparables:

Nik Antropov, career high 59 points – signed a $4M/year deal in ATL
Johan Franzen, career high 59 points – signed a $3.95M/year deal in DET
Travis Zajac, career high 62 points - signed a $3.88M/year deal in NJ
Tumomo Ruutu, career high 54 points - signed a $3.8M/year deal in CAR
Ryan Clowe, career high 52 points – signed a $3.5M/year deal in SJ.

Stajan has already outpointed Ruutu and Clowe and this season he will likely outpoint the totals put up by Antropov, Zajac and Franzen in their contract years.

Given the comparables, don't be surprised to see Stajan looking for a contract in the $3.5M+/year range this summer.

Who’s Driving the Bus?

If Kessel is generating the bulk of Stajan’s points (and all signs point to this being so: Stajan’s ppg nearly doubled since joining Kessel and he has countless assists from down near his own goal line) two questions immediately come to mind:

1. Can Stajan be replaced at a cheaper rate than the expected $3.5M+/year?
2. Should the Leafs commit salary and term to a player that isn’t generating the stats he's being rewarded for?

In terms of replacement value, it’s not just about keeping salary dollars for UFAs this summer. A potential Stajan deal is about cap dollars, cap space and flexibility for the life of the contract. $3.5 to $4M may not seem like a heavy cap hit to carry, but how many Leaf fans would love to see Finger ($3.5M) and Blake ($4M) moved?

As Eliotte Friedman noted in his most recent 30 Thoughts:

One GM told me that if you're going to sign a player to a long-term, big-money deal, he'd better be three things: critical to your success, consistently healthy and, most importantly, extremely self-motivated.

As much as I'm eating crow over the Kessel deal (I didn’t, and still don't, like the deal even though Kessel has looked fantastic for the Leafs) Kessel remains a rather soft player. Boston has effectively neutralized him in two games by playing smothering, tough hockey. I fully expect that this style would be SOP if the Leafs ever make the post-season.

In light of this, there are a few downsides to keeping Stajan as the Leafs #1 centre:

1. Stajan is not the guy you run 20+ minutes a night against tough competition. He’s not going to help shut-down the bigger pivots in the east;
2. On the other side of the puck, he’s not going to fight through smothering, tough, defence to generate points;
3. With Grabovski already signed as the #2 centre, can the Leafs succeed over the long-term, and in the post-season, with softer players centering the top two lines?
4. To Friedman's point, is Stajan the right type of player to build around or do the Leafs need to focus what assets they have – salary, term, the trading of spare parts and pending UFAs – to acquire a more physical or grittier player than can make some room for Kessel?

VORP

In terms of replacement value, there are always going to be bona fide NHL players looking for a short-term deal to stay in the game. Afinogenov signed for $800k, Moore for $1.1M. Peverley got picked off waivers. I think all 3 would put up Stajanesque numbers if given prime minutes with Kessel.

If there are other centres available who can produce alongside Kessel for less than $3.5M/year, trade Stajan for whatever you can get.

If no other viable options are available, or if you believe Stajan is a key part of the medium term success of the team, get Stajan’s name on a contract.

If I were GM

My tendency would be to let Kessel continue to inflate Stajan's stats for the rest of the season to see what the return for Stajan is at the trade deadline.

If the price is right, I'd move Stajan.

I'd also consider taking a page out of the St. Louis Blues playbook and move Stajan for picks at the deadline and look at re-signing him come July 1.

If Stajan is willing to take a home town discount (less than $3M/year or a very short term deal) I'd get his name on a contract.

The cap makes the NHL an efficiency contest. Elite teams lock-up their superstars and round out the rosters with players who are outperforming their contracts. Personally, I don't think Stajan fits either of these categories.

With 16 pending UFAs and RFAs on the Leafs extended roster and just 59 days between the January 1st opening of contract renegotiations (CBA 50.5 F iv) and the March 3trade deadline it's going to be an interesting few months for Burke and the Leafs.

Stajan may be the most intriguing challenge Burke has.

The Leafs and UFA Season: Day One

So this is what Brian Burke meant when he said "truculent."

On the first day of NHL free agency the Leafs acquired heavyweight RW Colton Orr (4 years/ $1M per) and D Mike Komisarek (5 years/ $4.25M per).

The Leafs also traded D Pavel Kubina to Atlanta along with AHLer Tim Stapleton for D Garnet Exelby and AHLer Mark Stuart. The deal freed up $3M in cap space for the Leafs.

The Roster

The Leafs may have added some toughness to the roster, but I have to think more changes are coming to address their weakness down the middle, to replace some of the offense that was lost with the departures of Moore, Antropov and Kubina, and to clear the log jam on D (by my count, there are nine NHL ready bodies back there).

Here's a look at where the Leafs currently stand in terms of bodies and cap hits:

Centres

1. Mikhail Grabovski (RFA)
2. Matt Stajan
3. Jiri Tlusty
4. John Mitchell
5. Tyler Bozak
6. Christian Hanson

There's no way to get around this, that's one thin, soft, inexperienced group of pivots. The Leafs really don't have a centre that can log the tough minutes against top competition.

There's only three legit NHL players on that list, one of whom hasn't signed a contract with the Leafs (Grabovski) another disappeared for the second half of the season and is about as physical as a ghost (Stajan) and a third who demonstrated he's a solid #4 centre that might have the jam to play in the #3 slot (Mitchell).

Tlusty put up some nice numbers with the Marlies but hasn't done anything to show he can stick in the bigs and Bozak and Hanson, late season signings out of the NCAA, have games that are completely unknown at the pro level.

Left Wing

1. Niklas Hagman
2. Nikolai Kulemin
3. Jason Blake
4. Alexi Ponikarovski

One of the few positions where the Leafs have a bit of depth, although this doesn't exactly line-up with Burke's notion of a top six that can skate and score and a bottom six that can crash and bang. It also isn't the most physical or compelling group of forwards. Still, they're all a threat to cash in 20 goals and they're all good skaters with pretty good speed.

Right Wing

1. Lee Stempniak
2. Jamal Mayers
3. Colton Orr

Yeah, this isn't pretty is it?

At best (and that's being kind) this is a 2,3,4 collection of skaters, if not flat out 3rd and 4th line talent.

One of Kulemin or Hagman will likely play the right side, pushing this group down to the 2,3,4 slots with one of the additional centres picking up time on the left wing.

Clearly the Leafs need some help on the right-side.

Defense

1. Michael Komisarek
2. Tomas Kaberle
3. Garnet Exelby
4. Luke Schenn
5. Jeff Finger
6. Mike Van Ryn
7. Jonas Frogren
8. Ian White
9. Anton Stralman

The big change here might not be the Kubina deal or the acquisition of Komisarek, it might just be the loss of waiver exemptions. Unlike last season, if the Leafs need to move Frogren or Stralman between the Leafs and Marlies they'll have to expose them to waivers and risk losing them to another club.

I could see the Leafs going with a 23 man roster and carrying 8 D, but even at that one more of these guys has to go (or they wait for game four or five by which time Van Ryn should be on the IR).

The Cap

By my math, the Leafs have $20,560,833 tied up in this group of forwards, $22,163,334 committed to D (though it will be anywhere from $731K to $4M lower once one of these bodies are shipped out of town) and $4M tied up in Toskala.

That's good for a $46,725 million cap hit, although the Leafs need to sign someone to back-up Toskala and they need to determine remuneration for Grabovski. Call it $50M once those two accounts are settled.

Balancing the Roster

The Leafs should have $5M+ remaining to secure a more solid presence up the middle and/or some talent on the right hand side that can score.

I suspect the issue at forward will be partially addressed through a UFA signing and by trading one of the excess parts on D.

Should be interesting to see what else Burke and the Leafs are up to over the next few days.

NHL UFA Season Begins: Do YouThink You Made the Right Decision This Time?

One day to go until NHL free agency season opens. One day until we find out which NHL GMs are crazy with the cash.

I'd like to think that this year's free agency period will reveal a more rational market but I'm sure Sather will prove me wrong with an eleventy-billion dollar offer to Cammalleri only to be outdone by a lifetime contract for Gaborik from Charles Wang.

There are a few big name players out there who may generate pre-lockout Tkachuk money, but aside from Bouwmeester, Marian "exploding groin" Gaborik, the Sedins and I guess Mike Cammelleri, it's certainly not a very impactful group of free agents.

Leafs and the Cap

The Leafs have committed about $18.4 million to 11 forwards (not including Grabovski who's a RFA). Seven d-men take up a further $19.875 and $4 million goes to Toskala.

That adds up to a $42.275 cap hit for 19 roster spots, leaving Burke with loads of flexibility - about $13 million worth - for two forwards and a back-up goalie.

If you're keeping score at home, that's about $5M per forward with a $1M deal for a back-up or what Pat Hickey of the Montreal Gazette terms "Up Against the Cap"

The challenge in allocating that $13+ million in cap space is keeping an eye on salary commitments over the next few years when the cap is expected to decrease.

Roster Review

Let me be perfectly clear here: I have no idea what Brian Burke is going to do. I have no sense of which players are on the trading block, which players - if any - are at risk of being waived and which players - other than Schenn - are untouchable.

But why let something minor like facts get in the way?

Part of the Leafs' UFA activities are likely to be driven by Grabovski. If he can't be signed to a reasonable contract or in the event he wins an arbitration case against the Leafs, I'm certain he'll be gone.

The Leafs do have plenty of centres, but without Grabovski they will be running Stajan, Bozak, Hanson, Mitchell as their top four. A softy, two rookies and sophomore 4th liner. This is not the stuff dreams, or anything other than mediocre hockey teams, are made of.

The Leafs are also rather shallow down the right side. Mayers and Stempniak are the only two RWs on the team. FML.

On D, the Leafs appear to have a full set; however, the only real assets this team can move are Kaberle and Kubina. I fully expect at least one, if not both of them to be traded.

Balancing the Roster: Prediction Time

With those potential roster changes and limitations in mind, here's my best, uniformed, unimaginative guess as to what UFA season will mean for the beloved Blue and White.

The Leafs will target a veteran centre for a two year deal to provide some on-ice leadership and show Hanson and Bozak how it's done (while also sheltering the kids from the tough minutes). I'd guess one of Marchant, Morrison, Moen, or Pahlsson will be in the Blue and White. Pahlsson, given his age (31) and success with the Hawks is the least likely of this group to be signed.

There are very few UFA options at right wing. I wouldn't be surprised if Burke brings in Bertuzzi for one last kick at the can (resulting in about 302,849 people threatening to quit cheering for the Leafs, 19,283 "threw up in my mouth" remarks and 4,741 conspiracy theories involving Dominic Moore being traded last spring).

I also suspect Burke will target a RW with a mean streak who can address Burke's concerns about the Leafs being push-overs. Colton Orr is a UFA RW who might not need much of a bump on his $550K salary to land with the Leafs. Chris Neil might be another option, but he has a tendency of not wanting to fight when playing in the ACC.

If Kaberle or Kubina are traded, I'll go out on a limb and suggest that Burke will pursue Francois Beauchemin with a substantial contract or offer a vet like Brett Hedican a short-term deal to bring in a veteran presence who can be dumped once some of the younger Leaf D (Stralman, Gunnarson) have shown they can make the jump to the NHL in a year or two.

To provide veteran guidance on D, I'd also love to see Chris Chelios join the Leafs on one big condition: Chelios and Burke have to co-host a weekly televised media scrum/ panel discussion each and every week. I'd sign Chelios to Jason Blake like numbers to make that happen.

In nets, if Jonas Gustafsson signs elsewhere, I have no freakin clue what the Leafs will do. I have no idea if they'll pursue a back-up via free agency, trade, or an RFA sheet to Josh Harding.

24 hours to go...can't wait for the Leafs' inactivity to begin.

It's the Economy, Stupid

The downward spiraling economy and the shrinking cap is the big story of trade deadline day.

As the Globe and Mail noted back on February 12:

At this point, it looks as if the salary cap for next season will be within a million dollars of 2008-09's $56.7-million. That is because the NHL collected the bulk of its major revenue — season tickets, luxury suites and sponsorships — before the economy collapsed last fall. The cap is based on revenue from the previous season.
Of most concern to NHL GMs is the salary cap for the 2010-11 season. It will be based on revenue from next season, which is expected to be down considerably. (Well, expected by everyone except NHL commissioner Gary Bettman.) That is why GMs may be slow to make deals this March. If you are expecting the cap to fall to $46-million, say, then you do not want to take on a big long-term contract that will eat up a lot of your potentially shrunken budget in 2010-11.

There are two essential points here, one that's explicit - the shrinking cap; and one that's glossed-over - draft picks are the sole cost containment option for GMs.

A $50M salary cap in 2010-11 would severely constrict many clubs based on their current salary commitments, never mind taking on any additional salary via trade. Consider:

Philadelphia has $42M committed to 12 players, leaving $8M to sign 10 starters
Pittsburgh has $38M committed to 11 players, leaving $12M to sign 12 starters
Edmonton has $38M committed to 11 players, leaving $12M to sign 12 starters
Ottawa has $38M committed to 10 players, leaving $12M to sign 13 starters
Calgary has $37M committed to 11 players, leaving $13M to sign 12 starters
Detroit has $36M committed to 11 players, leaving $14M to sign 12 starters (including deals for Hossa, Samuelsson, Lidstrom).

And on and on...

While waivers are an option to clear cap space for those teams lucky enough to have strong revenues and owners with deep pockets, not every team will be able to bury $10M in salary with their AHL affiliate.

As the cap shrinks, salary containment becomes ever more important. Drafting and developing young talent is really the sole option for GMs to restrict salary pressures. With entry level deals capped at $1M, players have to spend approximately three seasons (depending on their age at the time of signing) in the bigs before they qualify for RFA status/arbitration rights. UFA status kicks in when a player is 27 or has accrued seven seasons in the NHL. That's not a big window to accrue talent and make a run for the Cup. The key ingredients going foward will be a strong collection of cost-contained youth and players outperforming their contracts.

Summing Up

When you combine a shrinking cap and a crumbling economy with numerous teams already in cap trouble what you get is a trade deadline day where few multi-year contracts are dealt and first round draft picks are a scarcity. In fact, only a single first round draft pick changed hands at the trade deadline this year compared to three in 2008 and seven in 2007.

While some may suggest Burke was a bust or didn't live up to the wish list of Leafs Nation, the economy is the big story here. Just as it likely will be again at the draft and then next September when teams maneuver to get under a shrinking cap.

In Defence of Ian White

Leafs GM Brian Burke announced that the Leafs were offered a second round pick for Ian White. Burke declined the deal.

Some in Leafs Nation have lamented that White wasn't shipped out for a pick, not sure why.

Despite being scratched for the first eleven games of the season, White is tied for 10th overall in the NHL in goals scored by a d-man, 23rd in assists and 25th in scoring. He's tied for 17th in plus minus (yeah, it's an admittedly flawed stat...)

At evens, the Leafs outshoot the opposition when White's on the ice and in terms of gf/ga60, White leads the Leafs in +/-

He's also durable for a small guy - he played in 76, 81 and 51 games over the last three seasons respectively (though that may have to do with the power of his moustache).

In terms of comparators, only Oduya (NJD) and Edler (VAN) put up similar numbers for less than White's $850K cap hit.

The NHL is an efficiency contest of sorts. The more players on a team that outperform their contracts the better and White is clearly outperforming his current deal.

Conversely, a second round draft pick has a 29% chance of playing 100 NHL games.

**EDIT**

Further to Lordosis' comment, here are some additional defensive stats from Behind the Net: Ian White has the second best GA60 on the Leafs D (fewest goals against per 60 minutes), plays middle of the pack in terms of who he's out on the ice against (given the injuries to the Leafs D, White's played way more minutes than he likely should have). He's third on the Leafs D in hits and fourth in blocked shots.

The Ice of Boston is Muddy

Mats Sundin played his last game for the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 5th, 2008 but he effectively ended his career with the Leafs on February 26 when the NHL trade deadline passed and he was still in the Blue and White.

Today he signed a one year deal (reportedly worth $5M) to play with the Vancouver Canucks.

Salary Dictates Destination

With a two-year $20M contract offer from Vancouver on the table, last season's "home-town discount" contract of $6M as a reference point and agent JP Barry working the media, it was clear that when Mats did sign, it wasn't going to be for a token sum.

Unfortunately for Sundin, his (legendary) indecision left very few possible destinations. The majority of teams made salary commitments that left no room for a signing of Sundin's magnitude.

Here are the teams that have the salary cap room to take on an additional $5M salary commitment:

Atlanta
Columbus
Carolina
Colorado
LA
Nashville
Islanders
Phoenix
Blues
Lightning
Leafs
Canucks

Not a pretty bunch, especially for a player who allegedly aspires to win the Cup.

More of those teams have a better shot of landing the first overall pick in next year's draft than the do of even qualifying for the post-season. In fact only two of those teams, Vancouver and Nashville, are likely to get close to the playoffs at all.

Sure other teams could have used waivers or trades to try to make room for Mats, but given the difficulty of moving salaries, self-imposed team budgets (you still have to pay those millionaires if their in the AHL), the financial problems facing so many NHL owners and the freeze on player transactions runs from December 19 to 27th it was likely too difficult for those teams to find the $5M in cap space to sign Sundin.

Looking at these issues, it should come as no surprise that the big Swede landed where he did. It was the best of a bad lot.

Water Under the Bridge

I have no problem with Sundin declining a trade from the Leafs last spring. It's a contractual right he bargained for in good faith and it's his right to exercise.

Would I have preferred he be dealt to bring in some much needed assets to the team? Absolutely, but given he said we wouldn't waive his no trade clause about 6,213 times in the three months leading up to the trade deadline I don't know why anyone was surprised or upset by his decision.

I have no problem with Sundin exercising his rights as a UFA and picking his employer. That's what we civilians do all the time.

And let me be clear: I'm not saying or even suggesting that Leaf fans shouldn't boo, cuss and curse over Sundin. By all means fill your boots. That's the beauty of sport - what drives me absolutely batty (Greg Millen checking to see if every goal was tipped on the way to the net) is just water under the bridge for another fan.

As someone who's loved the Leafs for 30+ years, I just don't see the point in channeling any anger at #13. In the pantheon of Leafs transgressors I don't think Sundin even cracks the top 10.

I do, however, think his comments leading up to and coming out of the 2008 trade deadline leave him open to some fair criticism.

Making His Bed

Sundin emphatically said he didn't want to be a rental player - for Sundin chasing the cup was all about the journey from September to June.

He may want to check the Calendar as he's just signed a one-year deal in December.

He said it wasn't about the money.

While he didn't jump at the big contracts he was initially offered, he didn't discount his services to make him a more tenable signing for so many cap constrained teams either.

He supposedly wants to win a Cup.

I'm not sure that Vancouver is his best option, given Luongo's injury and the quality of the Western teams they'll have to get through in the post-season.

Circle the Date

The Leafs are due to play Vancouver on February 21.

I don't know if Mats will be booed, cheered or greeted with indifference by Leafs Nation, but I do know those of us who gather to cheer Mats and those of us who gather to boo will all be sick and tired of the non-stop media coverage this one game will generate long before then.

Elevate Me Later

Just ten months after waiving Ilya Bryzgalov, Anaheim GM Brian Burke is at it again, this time placing defenceman Mathieu Schneider on waivers in an effort to clear enough cap space to re-sign Teemu Selanne.

As we've already noted, not only has Burke really struggled at the draft table, he's had one helluva time trying to manage the cap situation in Anaheim (a cap situation largely of his own making).

In addition to waiving Schneider and Bryzgalov, Burke also bought-out Todd Bertuzzi, sticking the Ducks with a two-year $1.33M cap hit in the process. Yes, that's the same Todd Bertuzzi whom Burke signed to a $4M deal that forced the club to trade the promising young Andy McDonald for the whopping return of 38 games of Doug Weight and "tag cap-relief" (tagging is essentially the ability to carry or cover salary dollars across seasons).

With such a reckless approach to managing assets, can someone please remind me why Burke is the alleged front runner to be President and GM of the Leafs?

Consider this mind-boggling fact: Wade Belak and Chad Kilger were worth more than Schneider, Bertuzzi and Bryzgalov combined.

I can only hope that this latest mishandling of assets and mismanagement of cap space pushes Burke that much further out of the running for President and General Manager of my beloved Maple Leafs. If there's anything the Leafs have demonstrated it's that they don't need an outside expert to come in to help screw up their player personnel decisions.

Hollweg: A 5th round pick for a 4th line guy

The Leafs acquired Ryan Hollweg from the New York Rangers in exchange for Pittsburgh’s 2009 fifth round pick (picked up by the Leafs in the Hal Gill trade).

Hollweg is best known for being Chris Simon’s piñata (Madres de Dios - sin dulce!) an incident that led to the longest suspension in the history of the NHL.

An RFA at the end of the season, Hollweg was 23rd in the NHL in hits last season, an impressive stat considering he only logged about twelve shifts or 8 minutes of ice a night for the Rangers.

I have to say, I haven’t been this excited about a transaction since the Leafs signed UFA Mike Blaisdell in 1987.

I’m sorry, did I say excited? I meant bored.

I think, "Meh" is the word I'm looking for here.

The acquisition puts the Leafs well over the 23 man NHL roster limit (and gives them about 10 guys ideally suited to 4th line duty).

Incredibly, Fletcher told 640AM that he’d like to add yet another forward (hopefully, someone who can play on at least the 3rd line) and one more D-man.

Given the number of players on the current roster, there’s not much use in calculating the Leaf’s salary cap as clearly quite a few players and their salary dollars are headed out of town.

That said, here’s the current Leafs Roster, listed alphabetically, with each player’s cap hit (taken from NHLNumbers. Oh, and if you’re doing any math, don’t forget to factor in Raycroft’s and Tucker’s buy-out.)

Forwards
1. Alex Steen ($1.7M)
2. Alexei Ponikarovsky ($2.105M)
3. Boyd Devereaux ($575K)
4. Dominic Moore ($700K)
5. Jamal Mayers ($1.33M)
6. Jason Blake ($4M)
7. Jiri Tlusty ($855K)
8. Mark Bell ($2.167M)
9. Matt Stajan ($1.75M)
10. Mikhail Grabovski ($850)
11. Nik Antropov ($2.05M)
12. Niklas Hagman ($3M)
13. Nikolai Kulemin ($1.48M)
14. Ryan Hollweg ($512K)

Likely to the Marlies:
15. Bates Battaglia
16. Brent Aubin
17. Darryl Boyce
18. Jeremy Williams
19. John Mitchell
20. Kris Newbury
21. Robbie Earl

Defence
1. Anton Stralman ($732K)
2. Bryan McCabe ($5.75M)
3. Carlo Colaiacovo ($1.283M)
4. Ian White ($850K)
5. Jeff Finger ($3M)
6. Jonas Frogen (TBD)
7. Pavel Kubina ($5M)
8. Staffan Kronwall ($487.5)
9. Tomas Kaberle ($4.25M)
10. Luke Schenn (TBD)


Goal
1. Vesa Toskala ($4M)
2. Curtis Joseph ($700K)

3. Justin Pogge ($616K)

A Man Called Bryan

With 10 potential NHL ready players on the blue line, and prospect Luke Schenn as the only waiver exempt defenceman, it’s clear that the Leafs are going to have to make a few moves to get down to the seven D-men they plan on carrying during the regular season.

I’m hoping the Leafs don’t give Schenn any more than the standard nine game look-see before sending him back down to junior, which would put the Leafs down to nine D.

Given the Leafs recent move towards players with more size and grit, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ian White moved, which would put the team at eight defenders.

That leaves Kubina and/or McCabe on the trading block.

Cliff Fletcher and Ron Wilson have both openly stated that McCabe is not in the team’s plans for the upcoming season. McCabe, despite his no movement clause (NMC), is clearly the more likely of the two D-men to be moved.

Timing

If it’s Kubina that’s going to be shipped out of town, the Leafs have a rather limited window to make it happen. Kubina’s contract permits the Leafs to trade him only between July 1 and August 15. After that, Kubina’s no trade clause kicks in, effectively pulling Kubina out of the trade market.

McCabe is due to receive a $2M bonus in September (his salary for this season is $4.15M+$2M bonus for $6.15 while his cap hit is $5.75M). I would presume that most teams would be far more inclined to deal for McCabe once that bonus has been paid by the fine fellows at MLSE.

Cap Hits, Chemistry and Conferences

If moving McCabe with his NMC wasn’t challenging enough, once you start to look at the cap situation across the league, it quickly reduces the number of possible trading partners for the Leafs.

So who’s a good trade destination for McCabe?

Several teams are either over the cap or so close to it they likely can’t take on McCabe’s $5.75 M cap hit. Cap issues pretty much rule out: Anaheim, Boston, Calgary, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Montreal, New Jersey, New York Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay.

Nashville, Phoenix and St. Louis have the extra cap space but are likely too constrained by team budget issues to take on McCabe’s $4.15M salary.

Sure, the Leafs could take back hefty salary in return, but it would have to pretty much be a dollar for dollar trade with any of these clubs, and given the log jam on D that precipitated this deal it would have to be a big-money forward. It’s difficult enough to find a trade partner never mind trying to balance out the salaries going each way, so I don’t think this is going to happen (but I could be way way off on this one).

McCabe’s rather free-wheeling style probably eliminates Minnesota and Florida outright too.

That’s 17 teams out of contention. (Of course, having said that on the record, the Leafs will definitely trade McCabe to one of these teams).

Then there’s the whole issue of location. McCabe has some personal/home life issues that have led many to conclude that he would only accept a trade to a team in the Northeastern United States.

Teams with cap space, but a west coast bias, include Colorado (still need to re-sign Sakic), Columbus, Edmonton, Los Angeles, San Jose and Vancouver.

Colorado already has seven pretty solid NHL d-men under contract.

Columbus just acquired Commodore, Tyutin and Backstrom and, despite signing Huselius, still need help upfront.

The Sharks have plenty of cap room, but having picked up UFA Rob Blake and dealt for Dan Boyle so there’s not much room there.

Similarly, with Visnovsky and Souray under contract in Edmonton there’s little to no chance a deal for McCabe is going to happen with the Oil.

That makes it 21 unlikely to make a deal.

So What’s Left?

Given McCabe’s alleged preference is to play close to home that leaves just six teams in the east as potential trading partners, two of which are division rivals.

East

Atlanta
With just five d-men under contract, the Thrashers still need to sign a few more blue liners. They have lots of cap space and could really use the PP help that McCabe could bring. The challenge will be finding the right return for McCabe as the Thrashers are rather thin upfront and don’t have the greatest prospect pool. It’s also not clear that McCabe would accept a move that far south.

Buffalo
The Sabres have just six d-men under contract for 2008-09 (having traded Campbell at the deadline and losing Kalinin as a UFA to the Rangers). Rumour has it that Sabres GM Darcy Regier has contacted 40 year old former Sabres D-man Teppo Numminen about a possible return (yikes) so there might just be an opening for McCabe (who has a knack for scoring last second game winning goals for the Sabres).

While the Sabres do have lots of young players to possibly complete a deal with the Leafs, they may have budget issues that are too large to take on McCabe’s cap hit. The Sabres have already committed $42M in salaries and they still have to qualify Bernier and Paille.

Furthermore, McCabe’s multi-year deal might also interfere with the Sabres’ ability to sign a slew of key players who are slated to become UFAs and RFAs in 2009-2010.

Carolina
The Canes do have about $9M in existing cap space. Unfortunately, they already have eight D-men under contract including PP guys Corvo and Pitkanen. The Hurricanes and Leafs do have a history as trading partners, but I have a hard time seeing McCabe squeezing into the Canes blueline or under their buget.

Islanders
The fish sticks have just six D-men under contract, but more importantly, the club has only 9F signed. There may be lots of cap space in Nassau County but most of it is going to be directed to finding another handful of forwards.

There is no doubt the Isles could use some help on their moribund PP; however, GM Garth Snow is on the record as saying he wants a pick from the Leafs in return for taking on McCabe’s contract. If that’s the opening bargaining position, I’m not sure where or how you even start to build a counter offer (how about a lower draft pick?)

Ottawa
With Redden signing in the big apple and Commodore heading out west, there is a roster spot or two open on D in the city that fun forgot (or to be more precise, in the suburbs of the city that fun forgot). The Sens do have cap room, but rumours of Boyle to the Sens might preclude a McCabe deal. I don’t see this one happening, but then again Raycroft got an NHL contract so anything is possible…

Washington
The Capitals have about $8M in cap space, but I have no idea if their budget permits them to hit the cap max. They also need to sign four RFAs to new deals and already have 7 D under contract. The Caps do have a number of young forwards and prospects that the Leafs could ask for in return for McCabe and Washington isn’t too far from the McCabe’s Long Island HQ. I wonder if Fletcher and McPhee have much of a history together…

West

Out west there appear to be just two options…

Los Angeles Kings
The team has just four D-men under contract and a whopping $28M in available cap space. Their PP quarterback Rob Blake was just signed by San Jose so there is an opening for a guy like McCabe.

As previously noted, the Kings are likely 4,000 km too far west for McCabe. The Kings are also without a coach at the moment (can you imagine the sh*tstorm in the Toronto media if the Leafs didn’t have a coach during free agency season?) which might make it a tad more difficult to talk McCabe and his agent Pulver into agreeing to a deal here. Still, it is an option.

Vancouver
The team has the cap space and the desperate need for offence that makes them a pretty good potential trade partner for the Leafs. They also need to add at least one more D-man to their roster, so they do have a vacancy on the blueline.

Having lost Markus Naslund and being such an offensively challenged club, I’m not sure they have the depth at forward to swing a deal with the Leafs. Moreover, as noted with the LA Kings, you can’t get much further away from Long Island and Toronto than Vancouver…

Life of Bryan

It’s hard to believe, but McCabe is just one season removed from being one of the top offensive defencemen in the league and two seasons removed from being an Olympian who actually got Norris trophy consideration.

Injury troubles certainly got the best of him last year and it can’t be a picnic being the whipping boy of the Toronto media (has any other athlete been called out as much by the press in this city? Has any paper ever demanded a player be traded on the front page of their paper?) but McCabe has handled all of this pressure with class.

Recent statements from Fletcher and Wilson have left little room for doubt that it’s time for McCabe to move on.

The $5.75 million dollar question is: where?

Back from Holiday Edition: What did I miss?

As the four or five of you who read this blog know, I took a quick holiday to the west coast for two weeks. I ended up without an internet connection during my time on Vancouver Island and came back to the news of the Wellwood, Tucker and Raycroft moves (and a new found appreciation of just how much time I spend attached to the interwebs).

The Raycroft move is about 10 months too late and about as exciting as stale vanilla pudding.

As I wrote here 18 months ago, extending Tucker was one of JFJ's many blunders, giving him a NMC was unconscionable.

A train wreck at ES, useless on the PK and of declining powers on the PP, I'm fine seeing the back of #16. Before we get to Wellwood, I'll just pause here to await all the angry blog entries on how Tucker's refusal to waive his NMC has hurt the Leafs rebuilding efforts and saddled the club with a six-year cap hit...ok, um, well, moving on...

Wellwood's move to Vancouver is good news for Whitespot franchises in the lower mainland, sports hernia surgeons and the Sedin sisters. Leafs Nation can now sit back and wonder if Wellwood will be this decade's Steve Sullivan: a small forward who puts up big points in the regular season, turns invisible in the playoffs and routinely cited by the media as further evidence of Pat Quinn's MLSE's malfeasance.

Free Agency (not so Free)
I'm guest-hosting over at PPP today and unlike my fellow co-hosts Greener and Chemmy, I like what the Leafs have done with their UFA signings so far.

As rumoured just about everywhere, the Leafs inked Curtis "Methuselah" Joseph to a one-year $700K contract.

It's not a blockbuster/showstopper/wow sort of signing, but it buys Pogge one more year in the minors, gives the Leafs some cap space and keeps Peddie and Tannenbaum happy as it will sell lots of jerseys. (Look for the Leafs marketing department to squeeze every promotional once out of this signing and look for Curtis Joseph's massive eyebrows to be gracing all things Leaf).

Joseph put up a sv % of .906 to Raycroft's .876 (no, that's not a typo) and a GAA of 2.55 to Raycroft's 3.92. If Cujo can put up similar numbers in spot duty to Toskala, he will be a much welcome presence.

In terms of the cap, Raycroft's buyout of $533,000 and Cujo's bottom-dollar $700K salary combines for a paltry $1.233M cap hit for backup goaltending. Remarkably, that's one million fewer dollars than MLSE paid Raycroft to sleep on the bench (and sleep through the few portions of the games he played) last year. A nice savings and a nice change of pace...

The Leafs second signing of the day is a bit more contentious. The Leafs signed Jeff Finger to a 4 year, $14M deal that carries a $3.5M annual cap hit.

Finger is a D-man I was really hoping the Leafs would sign (albeit for $2M per year).

He finished the season playing on the top defensive pair in Colorado and is an ideal #3 or 4 guy: great at ES, eats about 20 minutes of ice a night, can hit, blocks shots, is big and tough and has a good right-handed shot from the point.

He may not have played 100 NHL games yet, but he led the Avalanche in on/ice v. off/ice +/-, GF60 and was second in GA60. To put up those stats playing 20 minutes a night makes me a happy man.

Did the Leafs massively overpay? Yes. By a good million to $1.5 million a year (UFAs are always overpaid. It's a sellers market)

Does it matter? No, not with the cap growing to $57M this year. MLSE has piles of money, if the kid doesn't work out MLSE can bury that contract in the minors.

The Leafs ended the day signing former Dallas Stars winger Niklas Hagman to a four year $12M deal that carries a $3M annual cap hit.

Another deal that's a-ok by me.

Hagman has missed fewer games since 2001 than Cola has played (well, maybe not, but it's close). He can play either wing and put up 27 goals last year, including 4 SH markers and 8 game winning goals (leading the Stars in that category). That's solid production for a guy getting 15 minutes of ice per game. He's also only 28 years old.

By my (very poor) math, the team has $9.5(ish) million in cap space at the moment.

That said, Cliff Fletcher told Bill Watters that Bryan McCabe is not in the Leafs' plans for next year. So call it $14.5M in cap space.

Fletcher told Howard Berger that the team would like to add another forward and at least one more defenceman (an unsigned Euro that hasn't played in the NHL - any guesses as to who that might be?) so it should be an interesting few months as the Leafs continue to change the face of their organization.

Waivers v. Buy-Outs (with a small update)

I thought I was watching NHL Classics last night, a repeat from last January when the Leafs beat the Bruins 10-4. (As an aside, I actually managed to see that that game via sopcast whilst eating paranthas and drinking chai at a very early breakfast in Hyderabad, India. It's a very odd feeling when an NHL game finishes at 9 AM.)

Here's a bit of a quirky factoid: the same day that the Leafs pasted the Bruins 10-4, the Canadian Juniors beat the US in the semis when Carey Price stopped Peter Mueller in the shoot-out.

Fast forward 14 months and on the night that the Leafs paste the Bruins for a second time, Price bests Mueller again in their first match-up since that World Junior shoot-out game.

Buyouts? Really?!?

I'm not sure why there's been so much talk about the Leafs buying out various players. Wharnsby was guilty of this in yesterday's Globe, it's a talking point in Cox's most recent mailbag and it was a featured element of Steve's (otherwise great) blog entry on how he'd re-build the Leafs.

Buy-outs have become bit of a zombie issue to me - no matter how many times you think you've killed them, they just keep coming back.

So long as there's such a thing as the waiver wire, there's no reason to buy-out anyone on this team - with the exception of players with a NMC.

Full stop.

There's no reason for the Leafs to take any type of long-term cap hit to dispose of Blake, Bell, Raycroft, Kubina (take your pick of 90% of the roster) when those players can be placed on waivers (obviously, a trade would be the preferred method but if a guy won't waive his NTC, the waiver wire it is.)

Here's how the waiver wire works:

If another club claims a player off the waiver wire, that team takes on 100% of the salary and 100% of the cap hit. The Leafs are free and clear of the player, the salary and the cap implications.

If the player goes unclaimed, the Leafs then have two options:

1. Pay the player their salary to play in the AHL (or ECHL if it's Raycroft).

Under this option, the Leafs do have to pay their salary, but if the player is playing in the minors, the team takes zero cap hit (zip; nada; zilch). MLSE has deep deep pockets so I don't think this will be too much of a problem.

2. The Leafs can also recall an unclaimed waived player with the rather large caveat that the player has to clear waivers a second time (re-entry waivers). Under this option, if the player is claimed on re-entry by another team, the Leafs are on the hook for 50% of their salary (and 50% of the cap hit) for the duration of that player's contract. This is what Pittsburgh did with Recchi (now with Atlanta) and Chicago did with Samsonov (now with Carolina).

So waivers or buy-outs?

Let's take Raycroft as an example.

If the Leafs buy-out his contract, under the CBA the Leafs must pay Rayzor 2/3rds of his remaining contract, paid out over twice the remaining length of the deal.

Raycroft, with one year remaining on a $2 million contract (nice work JFJ!), would be paid $2MM x.66 /2 or $660,000 for two years with the Leafs carrying that $660K cap hit for two seasons as well.

Factor in a replacement back-up goaltenders salary - say Pogge at $638 - and the Leafs are stuck with a cap hit of $1.3M for back-up goaltending.

The buy-out creates $700K in cap space.

If they waive Raycroft, the Leafs pay $638K for back-up goaltending and take a cap hit of $638K for back-up goaltending.

The waiver wire creates $1.36 million in cap space.

Seems like a no-brainer to me.

***Update***

As I was on my way to a lunch meeting it struck me that buy-outs vs. waivers might just be the key to understanding this franchise.

Consider: a buy-out hinders the Leafs by saddling the team with a multi-year cap hit, but it ultimately saves MLSE money and funnels more dollars towards their bottom line.

A waived player makes things better for the Leafs but costs MLSE a lot more dough.

Based on that very basic and rather simplistic viewpoint, I'll go out on a limb here and suggest that if this club waives players, MLSE may not be the greedy, bottom-line first franchise as so many detractors claim.

Conversely, if they pursue buy-outs instead of waivers, it certainly suggests that the bottom line comes before doing whatever it takes to help the Leafs win.

An Update on the Updated Cap

I’m getting lots of hits and searches for info on the NHL salary cap and the Leafs’ cap situation so I thought I’d put in a completely new update with the latest info and totals.

The cap is informally being reported as $50.3 million for the 2007-2008 season.

By my math, the Leafs have committed approximately $45.5 million in salaries (that’s for 12 of 14 forwards; 8 D-men, 2 goalies and Belfour’s buy-out - NHL Numbers is hands down THE best site for this data).

As for how much cap room that leaves for MLSE a few things have to be taken into consideration:

1. Teams can execeed the cap by 10% of the cap total from July 1 to the last day of training camp – see article 50.5 c ii B of the CBA:

in order to ensure that Clubs may have sufficient time and flexibility to plan their rosters during the off-season, the Upper Limit shall be temporarily raised by ten (10) percent to permit Clubs additional flexibility with their Averaged Club Salaries during the period from July 1 until and including the last day of Training Camp.

With a $50.3 million upper limit, the Leafs could carry $55M in salary until the last day of training camp. By the end of camp, the Leafs need to be back under the $50.3M cap.

2. Toskala’s contract extension should not affect the Leafs cap for this season. My reading of article 50.5 (f) 1 of the CBA leads me to believe the bump in Toskala’s salary will not count against the Leafs cap hit for the 2007-2008 season:

An "extension" of an SPC, as such term is used in this Agreement, shall mean a new SPC entered into between a Club and a Player, which SPC is to be effective immediately upon the expiration of the Club and Player's existing SPC.

As Toskala’s existing Standard Player Contract (SPC) doesn’t expire until the conclusion of the 2007-2008 season – his increased salary will not count against the Leafs’ cap until the 2008-2009 season.

So, in a nutshell:
Cap: $50.3M
Leafs salaries to date: $45.5M
Less flex salaries for short-term injuries/call-ups: $1.5M

Sub-Total cap space available: $3.3M
10% flex room: $5.03M

TOTAL cap space available until last day of training camp: $8.33M

UPDATED: The Leafs Cap

Here's (yet) another look at the Leafs salary cap situation.

At the very least, it's likely that 2 forwards will be added and one defenceman will be playing with the Marlies. As well, under section 50.5 of the CBA, teams can exceed the cap by 10% from July 1 to the last day of training camp, so who knows how the Leafs' cap will break down. That said, by my math they're going to have to find about $3 to $5M in cap savings to take a run at a big name UFA.

12 Forwards: $20,411,000

1. Antropov
2. Belak
3. Bell
4. Devereaux
5. Kilger
6. Pohl
7. Ponikarovsky
8. Stajan
9. Steen
10. Sundin
11. Tucker
12. Wellwood

8 Defence: $20,829,328

1. Coliachovo
2. Gill
3. Kaberle
4. Kronwall
5. Kubina
6. McCabe
7. White
8. Wozniewski

2 Goalies: $3,375,000

Belfour's Buy-out: $770,000

SUB-TOTAL: $45,335,328

Cap room remaining: approximately $2 ~ $2.5 million (presumes a $48/49 million cap with some flex room left over for short-term injuries)

Cap Update: The Big Swede Signs

Sundin Inks One Year Deal: Cap hit $5.5M

With a $48M cap, the Leafs have approximately $6.5M to sign Colaiacovo, Harrison, Williams a back-up goalie and acquire any new bodies through UFA/RFA signings.

Salary Commitments

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	07-08 Cap Hit
Belfour	G	Year 2 of buy-out	$750K	$750K
Devereaux	F	Signed to 2009	$450K	$650K
Antropov	F	Signed to 2009	$1.125M	$2.05M
Kilger	F	Signed to 2009	$900K	$900K
Newbury	F	Signed to 2009	$450K	$450K
Ondrus	F	Signed to 2008	$475K	$475K
Pohl	F	Signed to 2009	$463K	$463K
Ponikarovsky	F	Signed to 2010	$713K	$2.105M
Raycroft	G	Signed to 2009	$2M	$2M
Stajan	F	Signed to 2008	$875K	$875K
Steen	F	Signed to 2008	$901K	$901K
Tucker	F	Signed to 2012	$1.59M	$3M
Sundin	F	Club option	$6.33M	$5.5M
Wellwood	F	Signed to 2008	$875K	$875K
Westrum	F	Signed to 2008	$463K	$463K
Belak	D	Signed to 2008	$670K	$670K
Gill	D	Signed to 2009	$2.075M	$2.075M
Kaberle	D	Signed to 2011	$4.25M	$4.25M
Kronwall	D	Signed to 2009	$625K	$487.5K
Kubina	D	Signed to 2010	$5M	$5M
McCabe	D	Signed to 2011	$5.75M	$5.75M
White	D	Signed to 2010	$453K	$850K
Wozniewski	D	Signed to 2008	$463K	$463
TOTAL				$41,002,500

Remaining Leaf RFAs

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	07-08 Minimum Cap Hit*
Colaiacovo	D	RFA	$825K	$866K
Harrison	D	RFA	$450K	$495K
Kronwall	D	RFA	SIGNED
Williams	F	RFA	$570K	$557K
TOTAL				$1,918,000

Salary cap is expected to rise to $47 to $48 million for 2007-08

* RFAs earning $600K or less, must be qualified with a 10% raise; RFAs earning earning $660,001 to $1M, must be qualified with a 5% raise - these are the required minimums only, players may, can and will likely sign for more (RFA Ponikarovsky's salary tripled; UFA Antropov's salary doubled).

Leaf Salary Commitments for 2007-08

Toronto Maple Leaf Salary Commitments for the 2007-2008 Season:

Commitments

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	o7-08 Cap Hit
Belfour	G	Year 2 of buy-out	$750K	$750K
Kilger	F	Signed to 2009	$900K	$900K
Newbury	F	Signed to 2009	$450K	$450K
Ondrus	F	Signed to 2008	$475K	$475K
Pohl	F	Signed to 2009	$463K	$463K
Raycroft	G	Signed to 2009	$2M	$2M
Stajan	F	Signed to 2008	$875K	$875K
Steen	F	Signed to 2008	$901K	$901K
Tucker	F	Signed to 2012	$1.59M	$3M
Sundin	F	Club option	$6.33M	TBD
Wellwood	F	Signed to 2008	$875K	$875K
Westrum	F	Signed to 2008	$463K	$463K
Belak	D	Signed to 2008	$670K	$670K
Gill	D	Signed to 2009	$2.075M	$2.075M
Kaberle	D	Signed to 2011	$4.25M	$4.25M
Kubina	D	Signed to 2010	$5M	$5M
McCabe	D	Signed to 2011	$5.75M	$5.75M
Wozniewski	D	Signed to 2008	$463	$463
TOTAL				*29,285,750

Leaf RFAs

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	o7-08 Minimum Cap Hit**
Colaiacovo	D	RFA	$825K	$866K
Harrison	D	RFA	$450K	$495K
Kronwall	D	RFA	$625K	$656K
Ponikarovsky	F	RFA	$713K	$749K
Suglabov	F	RFA	$550K	$605K
White	D	RFA	$453K	$498K
Williams	F	RFA	$507K	$557K
TOTAL				$4.427M**

That puts the Leafs at $33,712,900 with Sundin and 7 RFA salaries to be confirmed. Salary cap is expected to rise to $47 to $48 million for 2007-08.

*initial cap hit does not include club option on Mats Sundin.
** RFAs earning $600K or less, must be qualified with a 10% raise; RFAs earning earning $660,001 to $1M, must be qualified with a 5% raise - these are the required minimums only, players may, can and will likely sign for more.

If I woke up on Monday and was a majority shareowner of MLSE, here's what I would do:

1. Fire JFJ.
2. Hire Mastermind GM
3. ---
4. Win Stanley Cup

===

I vented earlier about the Leafs man games lost to injury meme and sure enough in the very first post-elimination story to hit the wire (filed by Pierre Le Brun for CP) there it was: the most man games lost to injury.

Boo hoo.

Yeah, the Leafs did miss 353 man games, but before we use that little meme as a crutch let's have a look at how that total is generated:

Injuries

Player	Games Missed
Wozniewski	59
Peca	47
Wellwood	34
Colaiacovo	34
Antropov	24
Tucker	26
Kubina	20
Ponikarovsky	11
Kaberle	8
Sundin	7
Misc. Scrubs	79

Knock of Woz and the day to day injuries suffered by the likes of Newbury and suddenly 130+ of those games disappear.

Antropov is good to miss a quarter of the season every year, so let's not let JFJ's tear ducts go into overdrive just yet. Add in Cola's trips to the IR and that total of 353 is down to 150 or so, which is likely low for for most NHL clubs.

Did injuries hurt the Leafs? Yes, but is the league-leading stat really all that revealing or is it a red herring? Unless Woz is the missing link for the Leafs, this shouldn't provide any sort of excuse for JFJ not to be jettisoned.

===
I thought I'd provide a quick update on contract status and cap hits for the Leafs roster as I'm sure we'll all be playing armchair GM for the next few days. (In fact, I'm going really get into playing armchair GM this year. On Tuesday, I'm going to pretend it's NHL trade deadline day. In the spirit of JFJ, I'll be cleaning up my files, setting up some iPod playlists - really digging The Island's Don't Call Me Whitney, Bobby - going for a long lunch and generally sitting on my hands. It's going to be a great day of wasted opportunities. Just to be safe, I'm going to leave my cell phone at home...

The Leafs have a number of UFAs that they need to walk run away from and a surprising number of RFAs that should make for some interesting negotiations (even though noted Grandma pusher Bobby Clarke isn't a GM anymore, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of the Leaf RFAs like White have a stupid bucket of money thrown at them).

I'd like to fill in these charts to indicate who has a no-trade clause and who has a no-movement clause to make roster reconstruction projects a bit easier.

FORWARDS

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	o7-08 Cap Hit
Antropov	F	UFA	$1.07M	---
Battaglia	F	UFA	$500K	---
Devereaux	F	UFA	$450K	---
Green	F	UFA	$500K	---
Kilger	F	Signed to 2009	$900K	$900K
Newbury	F	Signed to 2009	$450K	$450K
Ondrus	F	Signed to 2008	$475K	$475K
O'Neill	F	UFA	$1.5M	---
Peca	F	UFA	$2.5M	---
Perrault	F	UFA	$700K	---
Pohl	F	Signed to 2009	$463K	$463K
Ponikarovsky	F	RFA	$713	---
Stajan	F	Signed to 2008	$875K	$875K
Steen	F	Signed to 2008	$901K	$901K
Tucker	F	Signed to 2012	$1.59M	$3M
Sundin	F	Club option	$6.33M	TBD
Wellwood	F	Signed to 2008	$875K	$875K
Westrum	F	Signed to 2008	$463K	$463K
Williams	F	RFA	$507K	---

Defence

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	o7-08 Cap Hit
Belak	D	Signed to 2008	$670K	$670K
Colaiacovo	D	RFA	$825K	---
Gill	D	Signed to 2009	$2.075M	$2.075M
Harrison	D	RFA	$450K	---
Kronwall	D	RFA	$625	---
Kaberle	D	Signed to 2011	$4.25M	$4.25M
Kubina	D	Signed to 2010	$5M	$5M
McCabe	D	Signed to 2011	$5.75M	$5.75M
White	D	RFA	$453K	---
Wozniewski	D	Signed to 2008	$463	$463

Goalies

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	o7-08 Cap Hit
Aubin	G	UFA	$525K	---
Raycroft	G	Signed to 2009	$2M	$2M

Capology

Thought this was a great post - kudos to Paul Szeglowski for doing the leg work and the math (and for making the spreadsheet available too)

Not only would I love to see something like this done for the Leafs, I'd love to see something like this league-wide. It would certainly provide a much better understanding of just how much flexibility teams have as the trade deadline approaches.

Cracks in the Foundation

TSN has an interesting post on the on-going negotiations between MLSE and Darcy Tucker's camp, including the news that Tucker is looking for a no-movement clause.

Great. A no-movement clause. That's just what you want to give out in a hard-capped, guaranteed contract environment - especially to a hard-playing small bodied 32 year old who is approaching the brittle years of his career. Even better when your club already has 1/3 of its salary tied up in just three players on the blue line.

I know these things are played out in the media as part of the on-going negotiations between filthy rich athletes and the mega-corporations that employ them, but if MLSE can't ink this guy for less than $3.5M/year for 3 years without a NMC he should be dealt.

Oh wait, TSN quoted JFJ as saying what?

"I don't see too many playoff worthy teams shedding top players at the deadline. I would call that atypical."

Man, I hope JFJ is using "atypical" in the same way that it's atypical for a team to be this bad defensively while employing the second highest paid defence in the league.

Or maybe JFJ meant atypical like telling everyone you have a "Master Plan" that's all about building from within and then dealing your top ranked goaltending prospect for Raycroft...

Perhaps it's "top players" that JFJ is having trouble defining. Maybe by "top players" he means players that don't have a broken foot.

Parsing that sentence further it's the word shedding that's the clue, the Leafs won't be shedding Darcy they'll be trading him. Yeah, that's it...

Ah hell, JFJ is going to ink this guy to a four year, $15M+ deal with a big fat non-movement clause. The Leafs will be maxed out to the cap again thereby limiting their ability to make deals. Three years from now, MLSE GM Garth Snow will have to waive Tucker and the team will eat $1.88M in Salary...

One other thing to consider:
With Tucker, the Leafs are 18-16-5 that's a .526 winning percentage
Without Tucker, the Leafs are 9-6-1 good for a .593 winning percentage

Mediocre D

I was all set to post a snappy entry on the Leafs decreasing window for in-game success: they can't mount a comeback and they can't protect a lead, unfortunately the stats got in the way.

Leafs have the 5th best winning percentage when leading after the first period and the tenth best winning percentage when leading after the second period.

Although the way the Blue and White have been playing the last few weeks, it's the leading after the third period that we members of Leafs Nation should be concerned about.

=========

I posted earlier (ranted?) about the Leafs having the most expensive defence in the NHL. Well, the Leafs D are not the most expensive, but it is close.

Based on the data collected from NHL Team Salaries, the Leafs D are the second highest paid group in the league. The Leafs have allocated $18.708M in salary to their 7 D-men (McCabe, Kaberle, Kubina, Gill, Belak, Bell, White).

For that $18M the Leafs have given up 88 goals against, 26th overall in the NHL.

The LA Kings have the most expensive group of D-men in the league. They've spent $19.944M on their top 7: Blake, Norstrom, Tverdovsky, Miller, Sopel, Visnovsky, and Weaver.

The Kings, and that most expensive Defence in the league, are 29th in goals against giving up 97 goals in 29 games. They only have to get a little worse to catch the last place Flyers.

Best bang for the buck? The San Jose Sharks - fourth best goals against, fourth cheapest D.

(FWIW, a rough calculation of what an NHL team allocates on a complete set of D is $12.603 Million. Please note - this is a rough calculation: three teams have just six D listed; five teams have eight D and the balance - 22 teams - list 7 Dmen; totals didnt include injuries to Leopold, Berrard or Mark Stuart.)