Leafs Trade Analysis: Two Loonies for a Twonie

On Sunday, Leafs GM Brian Burke pulled off two trades:

Vesa Toskala and Jason Blake to Anaheim for J.S. Giguere.

Matt Stajan, Niklas Hagman, Jamal Mayers and Ian White for Dion Phaneuf, Frederik Sjostrom and prospect Keith Aulie.

At this point, I've got way more questions than answers...

Anaheim

Giguere for Blake and Toskala is like a twonie for two loonies.

I’m glad Toskala and Blake are gone, but I’m not expecting anything from Giguere. He’s had below average numbers for two-seasons running and is unlikely to improve next year when there’s a further crackdown on the size of goaltending gear.

With little to no goaltending options on the UFA market this summer, Burke has ostensibly bought one more year of slightly below-average goaltending.

Dion Phaneuf

Dion Phaneuf hasn’t progressed as projected or in keeping with his (massive) paycheque.

His goal scoring production has declined every season he’s been in the NHL and he’s struggled the past two seasons.

Many in the game have noted that his play away from the puck is poor and has been resistant to changing his game.

Among NHL d-men, he’s currently 9th in goals scored, 69th in assists and 42nd in points. To put that in perspective, his 22 points put him in a tie with Francois Beauchemin.

On the D-side of the puck, his GA60 is a respectable 2.4, which puts him in the top third of NHL defencmen (73rd among the 212 D-men that have played a minimum 20+ games this year). On the Leafs that would place him behind both Beauchemin (2.13) and Komisarek (1.88).

And the Leafs get all of this for the incredible cap hit of $6.5M through 2014.

Wait.

That can’t be right.

Phaneuf is 73rd in GAON/60. 42nd in Points and he has the 8th highest cap hit among d-men in the league?!?

Wow.

Was Glen Sather a consultant to Sutter on that contract?

Cap Space Moving Forward: 2010-11

At $25M+ the Leafs have a whole lot of dollars tied up on six blue liners next season.

In net, the Leafs have $6M allotted for Giguere while Jonas Gustavsson is an RFA.

Up-front the Leafs have just four guys under contract guys (Kessel, Gustavsson, Sjostrom and Orr) and they’ll cost the club $10.1M in salary with a passel of RFAs and UFAs still to sort out.

Fold in the Darcy Tucker buy-out and the Leafs have $42M+ in committed salaries for 2010-11.

If the cap stays neutral, the Leafs have about $14M to sign 9 forwards and a back-up goalie, which averages out to about $1.4M per signing.

Clearly, something’s got to give here.

The big question, just like every year since the lock-out, is who gets moved from the Leafs blue-line to provide some help up front?

Player Development

Draft and develop has become a bit of a mantra in the NHL. The Leafs don’t really do the former and the latter - development - is where the fall-out from today’s deals could really hit this club.

In an effort to in-fill the forward lines and find some offence, the development curve for all of the Leafs youngsters just got a whole lot steeper.

Hanson, Bozak and Stalberg won’t have the luxury of a year in the “A” with spot duty on the Leafs to develop. They’ll be eating real minutes over the next 30 games.

Given all the holes to fill up front, and the limited resources to do so, there’s also a real chance Nazem Kadri gets a shot a next season right out of the OHL. No AHL development time for the London Knight (and a year of his entry level deal cashed in too).

Of course, the Leafs could run with veteran UFAs on one-year contracts to buy their kids more development time – while that's something I hope the Burke-Nonis brain trust explores, I don't see it happening (I got no proof, just what my guy gut says).

2012: AKA The fine print

Here comes the giant caveat: with the CBA set to expire in 2011, this whole issue of contract hits and cap room could quickly become moot. Phaneuf’s contract, and the Leafs’ salary cap situation, becomes eminently more manageable if there’s any type of luxury tax or an NBA-like luxury tax amnesty provision.

Until then, I'm treating the rest of this season as a 30 game exhibition schedule: the games don't count, it's all about evaluating talent.

Matt Stajan: Putting a Price on #14

Matt Stajan is having a career year playing on a line with Phil Kessel.

Stajan's emergence comes at an interesting time. As a pending UFA in a contract year one has to wonder if the Leafs can afford to keep him or, given his chemistry with Kessel, can they afford to let him go?

One unintended consequence of landing Kessel could very well be Stajan getting priced out of the Leafs' plans.

Boxcars

Before Kessel was healthy enough to join the Leafs, Stajan was putting up points at an 0.58 per game (ppg) rate. Good for a 48 point season. Since being given the plumb assignment of centering Kessel, his production has nearly doubled to a very impressive 0.98 ppg. Pairing up with Kessel has put Stajan on pace for 65 points with career highs in both goals and assists.

Determining Value

I have no idea what transpires between players, agents and GMs, but with Stajan on pace for 65 points this year, all signs point to a hefty raise. Factor in a thin crop of UFA centres – demand exceeding supply – and it's a safe bet that Stajan will be Oprah rich.

In order to get an idea of the compensation Stajan might be in line for, I took a look at the types of contracts signed by Stajan's peers in 2009, that is unrestricted free agent forwards, in their 20s, that scored in the 50 to 65 point band. Here's a quick look at Stajan's comparables:

Nik Antropov, career high 59 points – signed a $4M/year deal in ATL
Johan Franzen, career high 59 points – signed a $3.95M/year deal in DET
Travis Zajac, career high 62 points - signed a $3.88M/year deal in NJ
Tumomo Ruutu, career high 54 points - signed a $3.8M/year deal in CAR
Ryan Clowe, career high 52 points – signed a $3.5M/year deal in SJ.

Stajan has already outpointed Ruutu and Clowe and this season he will likely outpoint the totals put up by Antropov, Zajac and Franzen in their contract years.

Given the comparables, don't be surprised to see Stajan looking for a contract in the $3.5M+/year range this summer.

Who’s Driving the Bus?

If Kessel is generating the bulk of Stajan’s points (and all signs point to this being so: Stajan’s ppg nearly doubled since joining Kessel and he has countless assists from down near his own goal line) two questions immediately come to mind:

1. Can Stajan be replaced at a cheaper rate than the expected $3.5M+/year?
2. Should the Leafs commit salary and term to a player that isn’t generating the stats he's being rewarded for?

In terms of replacement value, it’s not just about keeping salary dollars for UFAs this summer. A potential Stajan deal is about cap dollars, cap space and flexibility for the life of the contract. $3.5 to $4M may not seem like a heavy cap hit to carry, but how many Leaf fans would love to see Finger ($3.5M) and Blake ($4M) moved?

As Eliotte Friedman noted in his most recent 30 Thoughts:

One GM told me that if you're going to sign a player to a long-term, big-money deal, he'd better be three things: critical to your success, consistently healthy and, most importantly, extremely self-motivated.

As much as I'm eating crow over the Kessel deal (I didn’t, and still don't, like the deal even though Kessel has looked fantastic for the Leafs) Kessel remains a rather soft player. Boston has effectively neutralized him in two games by playing smothering, tough hockey. I fully expect that this style would be SOP if the Leafs ever make the post-season.

In light of this, there are a few downsides to keeping Stajan as the Leafs #1 centre:

1. Stajan is not the guy you run 20+ minutes a night against tough competition. He’s not going to help shut-down the bigger pivots in the east;
2. On the other side of the puck, he’s not going to fight through smothering, tough, defence to generate points;
3. With Grabovski already signed as the #2 centre, can the Leafs succeed over the long-term, and in the post-season, with softer players centering the top two lines?
4. To Friedman's point, is Stajan the right type of player to build around or do the Leafs need to focus what assets they have – salary, term, the trading of spare parts and pending UFAs – to acquire a more physical or grittier player than can make some room for Kessel?

VORP

In terms of replacement value, there are always going to be bona fide NHL players looking for a short-term deal to stay in the game. Afinogenov signed for $800k, Moore for $1.1M. Peverley got picked off waivers. I think all 3 would put up Stajanesque numbers if given prime minutes with Kessel.

If there are other centres available who can produce alongside Kessel for less than $3.5M/year, trade Stajan for whatever you can get.

If no other viable options are available, or if you believe Stajan is a key part of the medium term success of the team, get Stajan’s name on a contract.

If I were GM

My tendency would be to let Kessel continue to inflate Stajan's stats for the rest of the season to see what the return for Stajan is at the trade deadline.

If the price is right, I'd move Stajan.

I'd also consider taking a page out of the St. Louis Blues playbook and move Stajan for picks at the deadline and look at re-signing him come July 1.

If Stajan is willing to take a home town discount (less than $3M/year or a very short term deal) I'd get his name on a contract.

The cap makes the NHL an efficiency contest. Elite teams lock-up their superstars and round out the rosters with players who are outperforming their contracts. Personally, I don't think Stajan fits either of these categories.

With 16 pending UFAs and RFAs on the Leafs extended roster and just 59 days between the January 1st opening of contract renegotiations (CBA 50.5 F iv) and the March 3trade deadline it's going to be an interesting few months for Burke and the Leafs.

Stajan may be the most intriguing challenge Burke has.

The Johnny Mitchell Effect

The best thing to happen to the Toronto Maple Leafs this season might just be a knee injury to John Mitchell.

Since Mitchell was placed on Long Term Injury Reserve the Leafs are 8-3.

Let me be clear: I know the winning streak has a lot to do with stable goaltending, a relatively soft schedule, and better compliance with Coach Wilson’s forechecking system.

That said, taking Mitchell out of the picture made three important things happen:

1. It brought an end to all the useless talk about who should centre Kessel;
2. It gave Stajan an extended opportunity to establish himself as the defacto #1Centre and, more importantly, it meant Mitchell (a fine #3 or #4 Centre) didn’t have to struggle or play in situations way-over his head; and
3. By solidifying the situation up the middle, all four Leaf lines have found some chemistry, provided secondary scoring and balanced play.

It will be interesting to see how Coach Wilson fits Mitchell back into the line-up once he gets the clearance to play.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Leafs assign Mitchell to the Marlies on a conditioning stint that’s just long enough to get this team to the trade deadline. Doing so would give Burke the opportunity to make addditional moves that don't expose Leaf players to waivers and a chance to move an extra body or two for a late round pick.

Toronto Maple Leafs: November's When it Matters

I play shinny early Saturday mornings. Good bunch of older guys. The ice is full of their young kids skating laps while we assemble our gear and try to remember to put our jerseys on before our helmets (it's not as easy as it sounds at 6:30 AM).

Each week we look at who showed up, try to pair guys off according to their skill level and then red and yellow pinnies are passed out. We chase the puck for an hour or so and hope the 10 year olds that hit the ice after us don't smirk too much at the old men and the sloppy play.

Recently my side got stuck with a few too many of the guys who struggle on the ice. The teams are usually pretty balanced but we certainly missed the mark that morning. It was so lopsided that after the game our goalie turned to me and said, "Does this mean we get to play dodge ball at practice tomorrow?"

It’s the Goaltending, Stupid.

I haven't been writing much about the Leafs this season because there hasn't been much worth writing about.

It was pretty clear that the big challenge for the club was between the pipes and until the team addressed the goaltending situation they wouldn’t be able to compete. Thin forward corps and poor goaltending is a deadly combination. Giving up four goals a night is only a viable strategy if your team can notch five or six. Yes, the Leafs might have the odd six goal night but there’s going to be three times as many games where it’s a stretch for this team to score one or two.

Without any real offensive punch and unable to score at 5 on 5, it’s not much of a surprise that this team is 1-11.

That said, the Leafs are not as bad as their record and they're certainly not as good as many fans hoped/expected.

I think the main thing fans can take away from the first twelve games is that the pre-season is pretty much meaningless. A month ago, Viktor Stalberg looked like a Calder candidate and, for the first time in a long-time, the Leafs looked like a team with an identity. A dozen games into the real season and Stalberg is with the Marlies while the Leafs have the identity of an amnesiac.

Centre of Attention

Looking ahead, if goalie Jonas Gustavsson is the real deal, the biggest challenge for this team is up the middle.

How far can any team go when their top pivot is Matt Stajan? He might have outstanding comparables for a guy his age, but he’s built for the soft parade not to clash with the top lines of the East.

If the Leafs are to make the most of their high-cost acquisition Phil Kessel they also need to find a centre that can get him the puck. Yeah, Stajan had 40 helpers last year, but too many of those were secondary assists and he also tends to disappear for long stretches at time.

Ideally, the Leafs can land a pivot that can also dominate on the face-off dot. It’s an essential part of an effective PK. Jamal Mayers currently leads the Leafs in shorthanded face-off wins (admittedly with a tiny sample size) having won five of six shorthanded face-offs. The Leafs top three are not faring so: Stajan 52%; Wallin 46%; Primeau 40%. (Minnesota has the best PK in the league and their top three centres have much better results: Belanger 57%; Koviu 54%, Brodziak 43%.) It's hard to kill a penalty when you can't win a face off to get possession of the puck.

This Team Could Be Your Life

It’s November, when the games officially matter. Over the next month Leaf fans will get a chance to see how Kessel has recovered, how he fits into the line-up and if the it looks like a good deal was made to land the high-scoring winger.

We’ll also get a better idea if Gustavsson is the real deal. It’s one thing to look pretty good when you’re an unknown in the league. Once tape of him gets out and teams can isolate and identify his tendencies it may be a whole new game. Conversely, the more games Gustavsson gets under his belt, the quicker he can adapt to his team, their systems and the NHL style of play.

Should be an interesting month of hockey ahead, I certainly hope that the Leafs put up better numbers than October or is two wins in a month too much to ask?

NHL UFA Season Begins: Do YouThink You Made the Right Decision This Time?

One day to go until NHL free agency season opens. One day until we find out which NHL GMs are crazy with the cash.

I'd like to think that this year's free agency period will reveal a more rational market but I'm sure Sather will prove me wrong with an eleventy-billion dollar offer to Cammalleri only to be outdone by a lifetime contract for Gaborik from Charles Wang.

There are a few big name players out there who may generate pre-lockout Tkachuk money, but aside from Bouwmeester, Marian "exploding groin" Gaborik, the Sedins and I guess Mike Cammelleri, it's certainly not a very impactful group of free agents.

Leafs and the Cap

The Leafs have committed about $18.4 million to 11 forwards (not including Grabovski who's a RFA). Seven d-men take up a further $19.875 and $4 million goes to Toskala.

That adds up to a $42.275 cap hit for 19 roster spots, leaving Burke with loads of flexibility - about $13 million worth - for two forwards and a back-up goalie.

If you're keeping score at home, that's about $5M per forward with a $1M deal for a back-up or what Pat Hickey of the Montreal Gazette terms "Up Against the Cap"

The challenge in allocating that $13+ million in cap space is keeping an eye on salary commitments over the next few years when the cap is expected to decrease.

Roster Review

Let me be perfectly clear here: I have no idea what Brian Burke is going to do. I have no sense of which players are on the trading block, which players - if any - are at risk of being waived and which players - other than Schenn - are untouchable.

But why let something minor like facts get in the way?

Part of the Leafs' UFA activities are likely to be driven by Grabovski. If he can't be signed to a reasonable contract or in the event he wins an arbitration case against the Leafs, I'm certain he'll be gone.

The Leafs do have plenty of centres, but without Grabovski they will be running Stajan, Bozak, Hanson, Mitchell as their top four. A softy, two rookies and sophomore 4th liner. This is not the stuff dreams, or anything other than mediocre hockey teams, are made of.

The Leafs are also rather shallow down the right side. Mayers and Stempniak are the only two RWs on the team. FML.

On D, the Leafs appear to have a full set; however, the only real assets this team can move are Kaberle and Kubina. I fully expect at least one, if not both of them to be traded.

Balancing the Roster: Prediction Time

With those potential roster changes and limitations in mind, here's my best, uniformed, unimaginative guess as to what UFA season will mean for the beloved Blue and White.

The Leafs will target a veteran centre for a two year deal to provide some on-ice leadership and show Hanson and Bozak how it's done (while also sheltering the kids from the tough minutes). I'd guess one of Marchant, Morrison, Moen, or Pahlsson will be in the Blue and White. Pahlsson, given his age (31) and success with the Hawks is the least likely of this group to be signed.

There are very few UFA options at right wing. I wouldn't be surprised if Burke brings in Bertuzzi for one last kick at the can (resulting in about 302,849 people threatening to quit cheering for the Leafs, 19,283 "threw up in my mouth" remarks and 4,741 conspiracy theories involving Dominic Moore being traded last spring).

I also suspect Burke will target a RW with a mean streak who can address Burke's concerns about the Leafs being push-overs. Colton Orr is a UFA RW who might not need much of a bump on his $550K salary to land with the Leafs. Chris Neil might be another option, but he has a tendency of not wanting to fight when playing in the ACC.

If Kaberle or Kubina are traded, I'll go out on a limb and suggest that Burke will pursue Francois Beauchemin with a substantial contract or offer a vet like Brett Hedican a short-term deal to bring in a veteran presence who can be dumped once some of the younger Leaf D (Stralman, Gunnarson) have shown they can make the jump to the NHL in a year or two.

To provide veteran guidance on D, I'd also love to see Chris Chelios join the Leafs on one big condition: Chelios and Burke have to co-host a weekly televised media scrum/ panel discussion each and every week. I'd sign Chelios to Jason Blake like numbers to make that happen.

In nets, if Jonas Gustafsson signs elsewhere, I have no freakin clue what the Leafs will do. I have no idea if they'll pursue a back-up via free agency, trade, or an RFA sheet to Josh Harding.

24 hours to go...can't wait for the Leafs' inactivity to begin.

Maple Leafs: Time to Face the Music

This morning at breakfast the iPod wasn't charged and I was too slow getting to the radio so I got stuck listening to some really bad music.

As Drive My Soul played in the background (gack!) it struck me that if the Toronto Maple Leafs really want to change their culture, if they really want a fresh start in 2008-'09, a public execution of the MLSE employee in charge of the in-game music programming at the ACC is as good a first step as any. (And how perfect would it be if it turned out Peddie or Tannenbaum was the one that picked Enter Sandman for the Leafs to skate out to?)

Is there anyone out there who thinks the Leafs need to play three Metallica songs each and every night? Does anyone at the game think Marilyn Manson, Bay City Rollers and Wolfmother=hockey? And does Zombie Nation's Kernkraft 400 really say "Toronto Maple Leafs score!" or does it just say: "I could be at any sporting event at any arena in North America."

As an aside, if Stephen Harper really wants a majority government I think the perfect way to harvest support in vote-rich Ontario is to formally ban The Final Countdown (with a full exemption for magicians) and then move on to Cotton Eyed Joe.

Maybe the Leafs need to take a page out of the Jays' playbook (as long as it's not the "missing the playoffs for 15 years" one) and have each Leaf pick their equivalent of the Jays at-bat music. When that Leaf scores, the ACC would play his tune.

The good: seeing the reaction to a Boyd Devereuax goal when one of the artists on his record label get some prime time play down at the ACC.

The bad: about six to eight times a year, we'd see Jason Blake first pump to something like Slowride by Foghat and odds are one of Poni, Grabovski or Antropov would pick Dragostea Din Tei (aka the Numa Numa dance) for their song...(You just know Stajan would pick some emo number and if Steen went with Abba, I'd trade him).

As someone who hasn't bought a new release since M. Ward's Post-War in 2006, I may not be ideally positioned to suggest an alternate play list for Maple Leaf games at the ACC, but anything (anything!) has to be better than the gratuitous use of Nickel Back, Def Leppard, and Linkin Park...

You Say You Want a Revolution?

Went to the Leafs - Blues game last night, we were lucky enough to get my wife's corporate seats. Yup, corporate seats. I've been to four games this year and three of those were as the guest of large corporations on expense accounts. Which brings me back to this crazy concept that somehow Leaf fans are to blame for the current teams' woes.

Last night, I asked the people around me how they got their tickets ($160 reds). All of them are season tickets held by corporations - the guys to my right got their seats from a car dealership (the ticket holder apparently owns four dealerships); the foursome in front of me were from an ad agency; the two to their left were part of a restaurant chain; and the two to my wife's left were held by a big food multinational (who also have a box at the ACC).

This is something that Dave Feschuk picked up on over at the Star today; clearly it's not the average joe that's filling the coffers for MLSE and padding that oh so comfortable bottom line.

Malibu Stacy may tell us that "math is hard" but let's do a little rudimentary accounting.

The ACC has 1020 platinum seats at $400 each, which generates $400K per game (not including the margins from sushi and wine sales).

In the upper bowl there are approximately 3330 Purple Seats at $37 a pop, generating approximately $120K per game. Fold-in the 300 standing room places at $24 each and you've got an extra $7200 - call it $130K.

Time to compare and contrast: the purple dwelling Leafs Nation lunch box crowd is being outspent by the corporations in the platinums by about $3 to $1.

Put another way: one row of platinum seats generates more income for MLSE than all of the standing room tickets combined.

Now factor in 300 luxury suites. I don't know what the original purchase price or seat licensing costs were, but a 42 person suite rents out for $10K per game and a 57 person suite is $13K. The "cheaper" rental is the equivalent of selling 270 tickets up in the purples, more than 10 rows worth of seats.

So if you think refusing to buy the car flag, canceling Leafs TV and declining those $37 purples will make a difference, go for it. I honestly encourage Leaf fans to vote with their wallets. Seriously. After all, maybe Mike Babcock is right, - it is the common fan that's propping this organization up and keeping them from a re-build.

Looking at the numbers I find it very hard to believe it's so.

###

As for the game itself, Tlusty got banged around like it was the first time he played contact hockey, but I'll give him credit for getting up and staying in the thick of things all night. If he could find a second gear or any type of explosive speed he'd be a far more dangerous player. Tlutsy seemed to play the whole game at half-speed (or else his top speed is really poor). He could find the openings, but his lack of secondary speed kept him from been truly dangerous.

The Tucker, Blake, Stajan line really surprised me. Tucker was great on the forecheck (this from a guy who has pushed to trade #16 for years) but he's an absolute pylon defensively. Blake's through the legs back pass happened right in front of us and was amazing.

As I watched Legace stymie the Leafs time after time, I started undergoing serious cognitive dissonance - had JFJ signed Legace as a UFA, the Leafs would still have Rask plus their 2007 1,2,4 picks and likely would have made the playoffs last year. Of course, that would mean JFJ would still be GM giving me chronic heartburn by screwing this team over in new and inventive ways...

In the Reds

I don't normally do the game notes/blog thing but I got a call around 5PM tonight from a friend asking if I was interested in going to the Leaf game, like he had to ask.

Here are some notes from the ACC:

When Andy Frost announced the game’s scratches, Antropov’s name got a big cheer.

The music selection at the ACC is worse than you might think. I don’t know that Cotton Eyed Joe made an appearance, but the majority of the music played was recorded before the births of Steen, Stajan and Ponikarovsky. I didn’t know that people still listened to Quiet Riot…I bet the guy next to me we’d hear Twisted Sister before the night was over. I lost. But it seemed like a safe bet at the time.

Both teams came out sluggish. The Leafs didn’t get their first shot on goal until the 13th minute mark and that was off a dump in.

Ponikarovsky’s goal was a thing of beauty. Too bad he couldn’t repeat in the shoot-out.

The Leafs looked absolutely dreadful in the second period. They were totally contained for whole shifts at a time, unable to contain the Rangers low-cycle and unable to clear the zone. The Rangers very successfully dumped the puck into the Leafs right corner and then flooded the right wing wall. The Leafs coughed up the puck time after time after time. It was ugly.

Raycroft did not look sharp. Pucks were bouncing off him like superballs dropped from the top of the CN Tower. He was fighting the puck all night and if it weren’t for a few lucky bounces the Rangers could have buried the Leafs in the second, especially as Raycroft struggled to contain the puck and limit second chances.

Stajan can dangle. Made a great move up the middle in the 3rd. Who knew?

Maurice did his best to pair Belak with Kaberle, but the Rangers did a great job of isolating Belak and working the puck into his corner whenever big #3 took to the ice.

Brendan Bell did not look out of place - had a really nice solo rush in the third that he nearly converted.

The Leafs seemed reticent to shoot the puck tonight and were guilty of over-passing on a few occasions. I’m amazed they managed 38 shots on Lundqvist. It’s either a friendly finger keeping count or the Leafs should have had 50.

PruchaTyutin crushed Tucker. Tucker crushed Jagr. Nice stuff.

Whenever Raycroft left the crease to play the puck, a woman in my section would make a noise like she was going into labour (either that or she secretly using the call of the dying giraffe). Thank you miss, whoever you are, for giving voice to the anxiety that I thought was mine alone.

Marcel Hossa really low-bridged Poniarovsky with a very dangerous looking hit in the neutral zone. If Quinn was still coach (or if Lindy Ruff were behind the bench) this would be the lead news item until at least Tuesday.

The Leafs looked better as the game went on, dominating most of the third. With the exception of one shift in OT, the Rangers looked as though they were just waiting for the shoot-out.

The guy sitting behind me very loudly predicted what each player would do as they came in on the shoot-out. He fared a little worse than the leafs going 0 for six on his predictions. My favourite: his call that Shanahan would go “High cheese over the glove” on Raycroft. High cheese indeed.

I’ve never enjoyed the shoot-out on TV and I hate to admit it was a pretty thrilling thing to see live. That said, I still think it’s a lousy way to decide a game.