Ron Wilson's Record

I'm not much of a Ron Wilson fan. He may not be the biggest reason that the Leafs are looking at another year without the playoffs, but I haven't seen anything from him to suggest he's got what it takes to finally get the Leafs over the 90 point barrier, never mind into the playoffs.

In short, he may not be the problem but I don't think he's the solution either.

If the Leafs don't make the playoffs this year - and a quick glance at their schedule suggests that's exactly what will happen - and if Ron Wilson isn't fired, he will join some pretty select company.

Ron Wilson will be one of just four NHL coaches in the history of the NHL who have kept their job after four consecutive seasons without a playoffs appearance. Wilson will see his name, um - immortalized?, alongside Barry Trotz, Wayne Gretzky and Frank Boucher. I hope not, but all signs point to at least one more year of a bad PK, strange personnel decisions, and Wilson's patented arms folded, closed mouth time outs.

Team	Seasons	Coach
Nashville Predators	1998-03	Barry Trotz
New York Rangers	1942-47	Frank Boucher
Toronto Maple Leafs	2008-2012	Ron Wilson
Phoenix Coyotes	2005-09	Wayne Gretzky

Wilson being in such select company (just shoot me) inspired me to look at how the Leafs' awful post-season drought compares with other NHL teams. I also thought it would be interesting to see how many franchises have never gone four years without a post-season appearance, never mind four years of no playoffs without firing their coach.

NHL Teams' Longest Post-Season Drought

Team	Seasons	Streak
Florida Panthers**	2000-2011	10 seasons
New Jersey Devils	1978-87	9 seasons
Boston Bruins	1959-67	8 seasons
Washington Capitals*	1974-82	8 seasons
New York Rangers	1997-2004	7 seasons
New York Islanders	1994-2001	7 seasons
Columbus Blue Jackets*	2000-2008	7 seasons
Detroit Red Wings	1970-77	7 seasons
Calgary Flames	1996-2003	7 seasons
Pittsburgh Penguins	1982-88	6 seasons
Carolina Hurricanes	1992-98	6 seasons
Tampa Bay	1996-2002	6 seasons
Winnipeg/Atlanta*	1999-2006	6 seasons
Chicago Black Hawks	1946-52	6 seasons
Edmonton Oilers**	2005-11	6 seasons 5 seasons
Los Angeles Kings	2002-09	6 seasons
Phoenix/ Winnipeg	2002-09	6 seasons
Philadelphia Flyers	1989-94	5 seasons
Toronto Maple Leafs**	2005-11	5 seasons6 seasons
Nashville Predators*	1998-2003	5 seasons
Colorado/ Quebec	1987-92	5 seasons
Ottawa Senators*	1992-96	4 seasons
Vancouver Canucks	1970-74*/1996-00	4 seasons
Buffalo Sabres	2001-04	3 seasons
Montreal Canadiens	1919-22/ 1998-01	3 seasons
St. Louis Blues	2005-08	3 seasons
Minnesota Wild**	2008-11	3 seasons
Anaheim Ducks	1993-96*/ 1999-02	3 seasons
Dallas/ Minnesota	1973-76/2008-11**	3 seasons
San Jose Sharks	1991-93*/ 1995-97	2 seasons

*expansion team, streak began with first season in the league

**current streak, if they miss the playoffs this season, add 1 more to their total

The Leafs and Post-Season Droughts

Former Cox Bloc writer Godd Till has an interesting post up over at Pension Plan Puppets, where they're doing a Leaf-centric 12 days of Christmas (I wrote day 5, which can be read here).

Till's wish for day 6 is that the Leafs put-up six consecutive years of consistent play, complete with post-season appearances.

His post reminded me of how long it's been since the Leafs played a game that actually, genuinely mattered. I'm not talking about late season nail biters to see if this team can squeak into the post-season. I'm talking about OT games with no threat of a shootout, or the thrill and tension of a game 7 where an entire season is on the line.

It also made me wonder how the Leafs' current five year drought (sure to be six next April) stacks up against the rest of the NHL.

I decided to look at all 30 NHL teams and their longest post-season drought since the league expanded in 1967.

Looking at the chart below, I suppose the good news is the Leafs have a long way to go before they break any NHL records for futility...

Team	Playoff Drought	Seasons
NJ Devils***	9	79-87
Florida	9	01-10
Washington*	8	74-82
NY Rangers	7	97 - 04
NY Islanders	7	94-01
Columbus*	7	00-07
Detroit	7	70-77
Calgary	7	96-03
Pittsburgh	6	82-88
Atlanta*	6	00-06
Tampa Bay	6	96-02
Carolina***	6	92-98
LA Kings	6	02-08
Phoenix	6	02-08
Philadelphia	5	89-94
Chicago**	5	02-07
Nashville	5	98-03
Colorado***	5	87-92
Toronto	5	05-10
Ottawa*	4	92-96
Vancouver	4	96-00
Edmonton	4	92-96 | 06-10
Montreal	3	98-01
Buffalo	3	99-01 | 01-04
St.Louis	3	05-08
Dallas	3	73-76
Anaheim	3	93-96* | 99-02
Boston**	2	05-07
Minnesota	2	00-02 | 03-05 | 08-10
San Jose	2	91-93* | '95-97

*drought started with their first year in the NHL
** have longer droughts that pre-date 1967
*** drought occurred/is shared with previous franchise (e.g. Whalers, Nordiques)

Early Playoff Thoughts

1. I cannot begin to measure how much I hate it when the home team loses the first game of the series someone in the media goes on and on about the so-called loss of home ice advantage (Glen Healy, I'm looking at you).

You know what? If the home team wins another game, they’ve got home ice advantage right back, yet none of the commentators ever seem to go on about that.

2. What is the nonsense about Canadians cheering for a Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup?

I can only conclude the media who go on about this have never visited Calgary, Edmonton or Toronto (and I presume anywhere that isn't Vancouver, Montreal or Ottawa). And if the Leafs were in it (don't laugh) I get the feeling the fine people from coast to coast wouldn't be pulling for the blue and white.

No Leafs fan I know wants to see Montreal or Ottawa win it all, never mind actively cheering for that to happen. I’d wager that nobody in Alberta can stand the thought of the Canucks finally winning their first Cup.

Yet this angle will be shovelled at us until every Canadian team has finally been eliminated, which I can only hope is all of 10 days away.

Thoughts About the Match-ups

The West

Kings v. Canucks: Cheering against the Canucks in this one. Have no affinity for the Kings, can’t name half their roster, but can’t stand the Canuckleheads.

Colorado v. San Jose: Is there a unit of measure for apathy?

Nashville v. Chicago: Just want to see some good hockey in this one. Be great to see if the Hawks can make a run before their team starts to get into serious cap trouble. Conversely, I'm a big fan of David Poile and like the work he's done in Nahsville. Be great to finally see him get some playoff success.

Detroit v. Phoenix: Meh. The snake has been thrown.

The East

Boston v. Buffalo: As much as I hate them in the regular season, it’s always nice to see a smaller market with passionate fans succeed so it's "Buffalo we're 4" - I’ll likely cheer against them next round.


Montreal v. Washington: I don’t know if there is a team, player, organization or terrorist group that I wouldn’t cheer for in a series against the Canadiens. I’ll go with the Caps in this one.


Ottawa v. Pittsburgh: The first game of this series looked more like game one of the pre-season than the playoffs. I’ve seen more intensity amongst the toddlers in the nap room at my daughter’s daycare (and better goaltending too). I’ll cheer for the Pens to put an end to hockey night in Kanata.


New Jersey v. Philadelphia: Meteor. Mid-air collision of team jets or bus (it’s only 95 miles from Newark to Philly) or maybe the Philadelphia police department can use another one of their bombs. The last one only burned down 60 homes.

Playoffs: That Joke Isn't Funny Anymore

I made the mistake of watching TSN on Sunday night. They ran a story on a loop re. the Leafs as playoff contenders and being buyers at the trade deadline.

I should mention that the on-air "talent" spoke of "playoffs" without any trace of irony. April fool's day isn't for another 28 days, so I have no idea what the producers at TSN were smoking.

The Leafs have gone 4-0-3 in their past seven games, earning 11 points in the process by beating the Islanders (3oth overall), Sens (27th overall) and Rangers (three wins in their past 10) and getting three more sympathy points from OT/SO losses to Columbus (16th overall and outside the playoffs), Vancouver (10th overall) and New Jersey (4th overall).

This isn't the type of win streak that playoff dreams are made of - only two of these six teams even have a winning record.

The NHL Playoff Predictor has the Leafs' odds of making the post-season at 1.2% - that's about 1% higher than I would have guessed. Playoffs and trade deadline buyers indeed.

Two Questions

The NYT has asked blogs from all 30 teams to answer two questions about their club:

1. Will your team make the playoffs? Why or Why not?
2. What team is it vitally important to have *miss* the playoffs, and why?

My answers have just been submitted and should be posted over at Slap Shot in the next few days, in the interim I'm interested to know how other Leaf fans would have answered these two questions...

CBC Run by Leaf fans?

Ouch.

Isn't this like saying "shut-out" or talking about a no-hitter in the sixth inning?



All joking aside, I'm not counting the Sens out. Not by a long shot.

If there's one thing I've learned as a life-long Leafs fan it's this: in hockey, the most likely outcome - the one I can almost always count on - is the one that will cause me the most pain.

Based on this (call it the first law of MLSE) I fully expect the Sens to storm back in Kanata.

Eighth is Enough?

The lowest seeded team left in the playoffs is the New York Rangers who occupy the sixth spot in the East.

The Blue Shirts slipped through to the second round after playing a thoroughly disorganized, badly coached, Thrashers club. The Ranger's opposition only managed to squeeze into the three spot due to the NHL's bizarre seeding quirks and the bonus of playing half their games against the weak sisters of the South East division. By total points, the Thrashers were the fifth best team in the East, the Sens were number three. Anyone think the Rangers would have eliminated the Sens if that were the match up? Anyone?*

8th seed Islanders? Out in five.
8th seed Calgary? Couldn't win on the road. Their coach is likely toast
7th seed Minnesota? Crushed in five.
7th seed Lightning? Out in six - their top four worn out by just a single series.

Whatever happened to that the chorus of "Make the playoffs and anything can happen"?

Funny how it's fallen rather silent after just one round this year...

*As an aside, does anyone think the fans are well served by the seeding system? Wouldn't it made far more sense for the Rangers to have played the Sens and the Pens to have played the Thrashers, most likely setting up a second round match-up of Buffalo v. Pittsburgh/ Ottawa v. NJD?

Ten Things I've been thinking about lately...

10. I realize Maurice has more hockey knowledge in just one of those deep dark circles under his eyes than I will ever hope to acquire no matter how much hockey I watch, but as the Leafs game went up like a four alarm blaze in Tonawanda, why didn't Maurice call a time-out or swap out Raycroft? Anything to stop the bleeding. Instead, wave after wave of Sabres came at them, the Leafs got gut-punch crushed and Raycroft will have to be back between the pipes in 20 or so hours (watch that glove-hand Andy, it's a bitch).

9. I'm a little confused - the Leafs were supposed to be life and death to make the playoffs. The experts said it; the coach said it; many fans said it and the GM may have even said it. So what's with the injury story angle? If the Leafs were healthy, are we to believe they'd be protecting these leads, winning in shoot-outs, not choking? Only Peca's hurt at the moment and this team still looks like a 10 spot club or worse...

8. When discussing the Perrault deal, why do so many fans think Bell would have been lost to waivers? At the Trade deadline, the Leafs had the flexibility to acquire one player without having to pass anyone through waivers. Once the trade deadline passes, there is no roster limit (CBA 16.4a). If Bell was going to be lost to waivers (and there's no knowing if this is true or not) the earliest he would have been lost is October 2007. Seven months after the trade deadline. FWIW, Bell has more points since the trade than Perrault, although he's getting about twice the ice-time of Perrault (and what's up with #94 logging 6 to 10 minutes/game?)

7. It seems common knowledge that Ferguson will be fired if the Leafs miss the playoffs again this year (here, here, hell - everywhere) but I've never found a source for this. Does any one have a citation on this? A quote from Peddie, Tannenbaum or anyone at MLSE? I have a bad feeling Ferguson has at least another year left in him. I guess MLSE wants at least one more trade deadline to pass so they can sit on their hands.

6. The polarizing effect of Raycroft. He's not as good as the wins total crowd would have you believe (check out his total losses, his win percentage and the shoot-out wins compared to Eddie and Cujo) and on the other hand he's not as dreadful as some of the stats might suggest (his ES SV% is solid; his PK SV% is lower than a Sens fan's self-esteem each June.) Would he be such a divisive figure if he wasn't a JFJ acquisition and if the price paid for him wasn't so high?

5. If the Refs really had a bias against the Leafs, wouldn't they be the most penalized team in the league, not the 7th most. Sometimes refs (Hello Kerry Fraser!) are just the suck, no matter what colour jersey the teams happen to be wearing. And how on earth did Cola get away with that trip in the Jersey game if the zebras have it in for the Blue and White?

4. I always presumed the Leafs were bottom of the barrel at the shoot-out because of their shooters. Surprisingly, the shooters are decidedly average - ranked 16th overall - scoring at just a fraction less than the league average (a 0.8% difference). Raycroft's sv% on the shoot-out, on the other hand, is dipping towards the Caps' win percentage...

3. Why do fans bring up dumb things Leafs may have done when discussing the current rash of meat head plays in the NHL? What do any of Domi's past transgressions (Samuelson, Niedermayer, Arvedson, marital infidelity) have to do with what I might think of as appropriate discipline for Neil, Janssen, Simon and Tootoo?

2. What does this team really need in the off-season? Let me clarify that, what minor tinkering will MLSE undertake as part of their master plan? It's clear they can generate sufficient offence off the back-end (and there's such little flex with those contracts it seems the top 6 spots are locked down) but the club can't keep the puck out of their own net. Maybe a solid back-up goalie, someone that can eat PK minutes and a new special teams coach behind the bench to take a fresh approach to a moribund pk.

1. How many "must win" games can a team lose before the term must-win has no currency? Seems to me, the Leafs have lost three of the last four must-win games, which of course means Saturday night's match-up against the Sabres at the ACC is a must-win game.

An Open Letter to the Town That Fun Forgot

Hey Ottawa,

How are things?

I know it’s been a while since we talked. Seems every time we try to have a conversation it just turns into a shouting match.

Listen, I know you claim we broke your heart four times and I’m willing to take some of the blame for that, but maybe if you hadn’t gotten involved with that Lalime fellow last time around things might have turned out differently.

Sorry, let’s not go down that road right now…

We may still have our differences. Let’s be honest, I still think you’re cold and distant and not a lot of fun. And, yeah, there may be some truth to that whole “centre of the universe” thing that you just can’t seem to let go of, but that’s not why I’m writing to you.

I heard about what you did to Carolina this week and even though you’ll likely deny it, I’d like to think that part of that was about us. So, I just want to say thanks. Even if it wasn't about us, I really appreicate it.

I hear there’s a big dance coming up in April. We haven’t received our invitation yet but I'm still somewhat hopeful. I know we didn’t get to go last year either (you really don’t have to bring it up, please don’t, it’s something that still stings) but the reason we can’t go comes down to some plan or something. It’s really not clear…

If you do go to the dance, I just hope for your sake you haven’t pinned your hopes on another last minute date with someone like Tyler Arnason or Oleg Saprykin, if that’s who you have your eye on I think we both know how this is going to end.

Anyways, maybe once you’ve gotten over another heart break in May we can go golfing together…it’s likely we’ll be hitting the greens come April 1 but even with a three to four week head start I’m sure you’ll beat us again. Seems you can’t get enough of winning when the stakes don't matter.