Bob McKenzie's Draft Rankings - A Final Look

I love the NHL draft. This may seem to be a bit of a dis-connect being a Leaf fan and all. The Leafs are not exactly a franchise known for keeping their picks, using their picks wisely, or developing the kids they do manage to grab. This is a team, after all, that once used all of their first round picks to draft three Belleville Bulls.

Each year, in the days leading up to the draft, TSN's Bob McKenzie puts together a master list of the order in which thinks players will be drafted. It's not a ranking per se - like Central Scouting or Red Line Report puts together - rather it's McKenzie's insight into what the final draft order may be, based on discussions with NHL scouts, managers, and other executives.

The following table looks at the actual draft order and how it compared with the master list assembled by McKenzie. As much as expressions like "off the board" were thrown around during the draft coverage, one look at this chart shows that McKenzie was actually very close. Sure, nobody would have seen Hishon going at 17 or Visentin at 27, but otherwise McKenzie was pretty close.

The first column is the actual draft order, followed by the drafting team, McKeznie's projected ranking and finally a differential between the projected draft ranking and where the player was actually taken.

Actual Player Picked	Team	McKenzie’s Index	Differential
1. TAYLOR HALL	Edmonton	1	-
2. TYLER SEGUIN	Boston	2	-
3. ERIK GUDBRANSON	Florida	3	-
4. RYAN JOHANSEN	Columbus	6	+2
5. NINO NIEDERREITER	NYI	7	+2
6. BRETT CONNOLLY	Tampa Bay	8	+2
7. JEFF SKINNER	Carolina	10	+3
8. ALEXANDER BURMISTROV	Atlanta	12	+4
9. MIKAEL GRANLUND	Minnesota	13	+4
10. DYLAN MCILRATH	NYR	15	+5
11. JACK CAMPBELL	Dallas	9	-2
12. CAM FOWLER	Anaheim	5	-7
13. BRANDON GORMLEY	Phoenix	4	-9
14. JADEN SCHWARTZ	St. Louis	29	+15
15. DEREK FORBORT	Los Angeles	11	-4
16. VLADIMIR TARASENKO	St. Louis	16	-
17. JOEY HISHON	Colorado	51	+34
18. AUSTIN WATSON	Nashville	14	-4
19. NICK BJUGSTAD	Florida	19	-
20. BEAU BENNETT	Pittsburgh	18	-2
21. RILEY SHEAHAN	Detroit	21	-
22. JARRED TINORDI	Montreal	23	+1
23. MARK PYSYK	Buffalo	20	-3
24. KEVIN HAYES	Chicago	49	+25
25. QUINTIN HOWDEN	Florida	26	+1
26. EVGENY KUZNETSOV	Washington	24	-2
27. MARK VISENTIN	Phoenix	60	+33
28. CHARLIE COYLE	San Jose	32	+4
29. EMERSON ETEM	Anaheim	17	-12
30. BROCK NELSON	NYI	34	+4

Ask me about the secret to comedy

Phil Kessel has looked impressive so far, but with the season nearing the quarter mark and the Leafs on pace for their worst point total since the mid-1980s one has to ask - was this the right time for Burke to pull the trigger?

Phil Kessel is undoubtedly an offensive threat with a wrist shot reminiscent of Wendel Clark's. Unlike Wendel, he's also impressed at the other end of the ice, demonstrating his speed with some aggressive and timely back-checking. He's head and shoulders better than any other Leaf forward and it's been a long time since the Leafs had a young talent like this.

That said, I still have a real problem with the timing of the Kessel deal.

This is the type of deal that’s traditionally pulled off by teams with deep farm systems who are close to winning it all.

The Leafs aren’t close to winning most games, never mind competing for the Cup. Their farm team is about as deep as a oil slicked puddle in an empty car park.

The price paid for Kessel was fair but, given the paucity of talent on this club and the complete lack of depth in their system, I'd argue that the Leafs were not in the position to pay that price.

Trading for Kessel when Matt Stajan is your first line centre is the equivalent of a starving homeless guy getting a sub-prime loan and buying a Ferrari.

There are many who claim the Leafs could afford to sacrifice two first round, a second and a third round pick to land Kessel because the team signed NCAA free agents Hanson and Bozak and plucked young goalie Jonas Gustavsson out of the Swedish Elite League.

I totally disagree.

Don’t get me wrong, the NCAA free agents and Gustavsson are great signings, but the Leafs need to do that each and every year for the next two or three seasons, PLUS draft well, just to replenish their prospect pool.

The Leafs have managed to keep their first round pick just three times this decade. Tlusty, Schenn and Kadri are all the Leafs have to show for first rounders since 2000. (Boyes went for Nolan; Cola and Steen for Stempniak; 2003 and '04 dealt for 15 regular and 13 playoff games of Brian Leetch; Rask for Raycroft; the '07 first rounder went for Toskala).

The Leafs won't get another first round pick into their system until 2012.

Given that it usually takes two to three years for a first round pick to make the NHL (never mind make a contribution at the NHL level), once Nazem Kadri makes the jump, it will likely be 2015 by the time the Leafs have their next first round pick in the line-up. Kessel's contract expires in 2014.

For those who argue that players of Kessel's calibre don't hit the open market and teams have to grab them when they do, there's a lot of truth to that; however, every trade deadline produces vets that can push a team over the hump. The Leafs grabbed Leetch, Pittsburgh grabbed Hossa, the Sharks grabbed Campbell, the Stars got Richards, and so on...

Admittedly, most of these players were rentals not multi-year contract holders like Kessel, but the larger point remains: I'd rather build a competitive team first and then look for the much-needed extra part on the trade market. If the Leafs drafted and developed properly, they'd also have a much richer asset base to trade from.

I think the prudent, and most probabalistic path to success in the NHL is to draft and develop well. Get as many kids into the system as possible.

Here’s why:

1. Risk pool – the more prospects the less need for them to all pan out. These are, after all, 18, 19 and 20 year old kids. It’s not an exact science so load up and spread the risk (after Gunnarsson, the Leafs cupboard on D is pretty much empty and that ain’t good).
2. The CBA constrains salaries on players in their first three years, which leads to…
3. Greater cap flexibility as young players outperform their contracts; and
4. Players with less than 3 seasons experience are waiver exempt, creating even more roster flexibility; which means...
5. Teams have the much needed, and rarely found, depth in their system. You develop these kids right and they’ll be able to step right in, play the system and make a meaningful contribution.

In hockey, like comedy, the secret is timing. And I'm not laughing.

Burke, the Leafs and the NHL Draft

The Broadcast

Was there a single pick the experts didn't like tonight? Every pick was smart, every player was talented and every team was getting just what they needed.

Maybe I'm cynical or maybe I've just been following the Leafs and the draft for too long, but on draft day the equivalencies thrown around are a bit rich. Each kid is suddenly a composite of Lemieux, Lecavalier and Trottier. Each kid is nothing but upside.

The thing is no one will know how each team performed at the podium for years and by then the equivalencies are more likely to be composed of names like Stefan, Daigle, Bonk or Steen, Wolski, Bernier than the stellar names thrown about on draft night.

If you hit up the youtubes, you can see draft-day footage of a young Alexandre Daigle being compared to Sakic, Lafontaine and Rocket Richard.

Frankly much of the commentary is inane. Tonight a forward was praised for having a tremendous slap shot. It seemed like a great observation until I realized it was said about a centre. Not sure that's the trait most GMs are looking for in a pivot.

Burke and the Legend of Moving Up

What's the old saying, "Live by the sword, die by the sword?" change sword to quip and you've pretty much summed-up Burke's situation.

With the cap flat lining and threatening to crash and so many teams having very little cap room, it was no surprise that deals were hard to come by. It seems that draft picks have likely never been more valuable (as we saw at the trade deadline).

I have no idea how Burke thought he could move up (or more importantly why he'd blather on about such a thing). Just look at what he had to deal with in the top 3:

The Islanders' fan base is shrinking, they're in desperate need of a new facility and their GM was pilloried for his performance at last year's draft. Yeah, that sounds like a recipe for a deal.

Tampa is all sorts of crazy. Burke probably had to wait for an email from GM Brian Lawton explaining the internal communication processes in Tampa before he could approach them with a trade offer.

Colorado has had a GM for all of 3 weeks. If you've been on the job for three weeks would you swing a trade with Burke?

If you extend it further, Atlanta at 4 is in a mess on and off the ice and Phoenix at six is, um, flirting with disaster.

The Kings seemed to be the only option and I bet Lombardi knew it.

And if Burke could set-up a trade with any of these GMs, what exactly do the Leafs have to offer? It's not like the Leafs have loads of picks, great contracts or prospects to send the other way.

Contextualizing Performance

Only one trade involving actual players went down at the draft. Despite all of the rumours and chatter the fleecing of Philadelphia was the only notable transaction.

Had deals been going down all around the room, I'd be furious with Burke's lack of action. But it should be noted that 28 other GMs didn't pull of a trade either.

As for people who wanted Burke to get a sizeable truculent player in the first round, I'd suggest that's not where those players are typically found and likely not the best use of a rare first round pick. Consider: Milan Lucic, who seems to be the current role model for Leaf fans, was a 50th overall pick. Look up your favourite bruiser and see if they were a first round pick or acquired via free agency.

We'll have to see what day two brings, the only certainty is that the commentariat will do their best to fill a few hours of air time with more inanity and many comparisons to former second round draft pick greats like Mike Egener, Daniel Widing and Sergei Soin (who am I kidding, it's going to be all about the upside, all about crazy comparables: this kid reminds me of a young Rick Tocchet with the vision of Adam Oates and the tenacity of Dale Hunter).

Entry Draft Rankings: The Experts' Take

It goes without saying: this is a big weekend for the Leafs and Brian Burke.

It's not often that the Leafs head into the entry draft with their first round pick and two choices in the second round. In fact, the Leafs have gone into the draft with their first and second round picks just 8 times in the last 20 years.

Adding to the possiblities for a makeover of my beloved Leafs, the no-trade clauses in Tomas Kaberle and Pavel Kubina's contracts disappear for a few weeks starting this Friday, giving Burke a few more chips to play.

I have no idea what the Leafs will do - trade up, trade down, pick at 7 or perhaps all three.

As rumours abound as to who the Leafs are targeting (it might be easier to make a list of prospects the Leafs aren't interested in) I thought I'd post a few links of expected draft orders. If you suddenly need to know where Louis Leblanc is rated, you can check in with the experts below.

Bob McKenzie at TSN has an astounding record of predicting the top 30. His list is here.

Kyle Woodlief of Redline Report can be read here.

Lowetide (love that blog) has his top 30 here.

Hockey Symposium's top 40 are here.

Draft Day Intrigue?

I'm not usually one to get involved in trade rumours or speculation, but a few articles have emerged that are worth a read.

In a nutshell: if John Tavares goes first, it will be draft-day business as usual - Hedman goes #2 and Duchene goes #3. If, however, the Isles pick Hedman, well it seems now you've got a story...

A month or so ago, TSN's Bob McKenzie predicted that very scenario unfolding with Hedman going to the Islanders. (I have a tendency to take shots at the media while safely ensconced in my mum's basement but I want to go on the record here: let it be said that when Bob McKenzie talks, I listen.)

[The New York Islanders] Will take Victor Hedman. But I won't say they will take him at #1. By the time it's all said and done, the Islanders will have Hedman but not necessarily pick him first overall.

In a June 16 interview Chris Botta asked Bob McKenzie to follow up on this thought and McKenzie said:

I can tell you this: if the Islanders do not draft Tavares, there could be high drama on the draft floor. Tampa Bay will listen to every offer it gets in those minutes.

High drama? Cue the Lightning...Damian Cristodero filed a June 15 St. Petersburg Times story that lines up pretty well with McKenzie's take:

There are many variables that will be juggled if the Islanders take Hedman. If they take Tavares, it all probably falls into place.

So, if Tavares goes first overall trade talk will get quieter than an empty church.

But if, as McKenzie and Cristodero suggest, Hedman goes first overall, there's a deal to be made.

I hope Burke can do something reasonable to move the Leafs up to a higher pick (in a previous entry, Botta suggests the cost of the #2 draft pick is a top prospect, a second round pick in 2009 and a top five first round pick in 2010).

The draft can't come soon enough...

The bingo, the lotto (you know I never win those)

Do you remember back in mid-April when Leafs GM Brian Burke announced that the Leafs were trying to trade up in the NHL draft to get John Tavares?

Back when Tavares seemed to be the consensus #1 pick.

And here we are, all of eight weeks later, surrounded by rumblings that Tavares may have slipped to number three. It seems that after at least half-a-decade under the hockey microscope, people are suddenly concerned about Tavares' skating skills. Good thing they're bringing it up now. Would hate for that sort of thing to only come out after June 24.

Coincidentally, as Tavares' stock has allegedly dropped, Burke's sites have also shifted. The new goal for the Leafs is just to crack into the top five.

Why the change in Burke's plans?

Maybe the cost of trading into the top three too prohibitive.

Maybe the talent level really does drop off after the fifth spot.

Or maybe, as Steve Simmons (ack!) suggested, the off-ice issues of several teams in the top 10 are limiting trade talks.

Look at the state of so many of the teams in the top 10, by my count four of the top 10 teams have brand new GMs or serious off-ice issues. One can't help but wonder how challenging it's going to be for Burke to find the right dance partner to swing a deal (or deals) to land a top five draft pick.

Draft Order	Team	General Manager	Notes
1	Islanders	Garth Snow
2	Tampa Bay	Brian Lawton	Allegedly has gained full autonomy for hockey decisions after power struggle with ownership. Allegedly.
3	Colorado	Greg Sherman	Named GM on June 2.
4	Atlanta	Don Waddell	On-going litigation between team co-owners.
5	Los Angeles	Dean Lombardi	"Confident in our ability to move...last year was our first real test in terms of our ability to move up and down, I think this year we're going to be more than ready." link
6	Phoenix	Don Maloney	Nothing going on out here in the desert, it's business as usual for the Coyotes. Everything is just great. /Bettman
7	Toronto	Brian Burke
8	Dallas	Joe Nieuwendyk	Has held GM position for less than a week.
9	Edmonton	Steve Tambellini
10	Ottawa	Bryan Murray	Busy focusing on candidates to replace Cory Clouston next December.

Clearly, Burke has his work cut out for him as he tries to crack into the top five. As much as I hate trade rumours, if you listen to that interview with Dean Lombardi (FF to about 3:15) the Kings certainly sound like they're ready to make a deal...hopefully it's bigger than the previous deals between Burke and Lombardi: JS Aubin for a 7th and O'Donnell for a conditional pick.

The Cost of Trading Up

When asked about his plans for the upcoming NHL draft, GM Brian Burke was about as circumspect and quiet as a six year old kid who’s had three espressos, two helpings of cake, and was on his way to get his first puppy.

Burke claims he wants John Tavares and he doesn’t care who knows it.

According to the roughly 4,268 media experts assigned to cover the Leafs, the cost of moving up in the draft from Toronto’s #7 slot to #1 or #2 varies from the Leafs’ first and second round picks to RFA Mikhail Grabovski to a package of Tomas Kablerle and Luke Schenn (that’s one way to cover the waterfront).

A juicy sub-plot to all of this has Tampa’s money woes hooking up with the Leafs deep pockets in a match made in hard-cap heaven. The most common rumour has Ryan Malone and his $17M contract as the lead item in a Leafs-Bolts swap.

Given the broad range of predictive costs for the Leafs to move up, I thought I’d take a look at first round picks traded over the past ten years to see what type of package it has traditionally required to move into Tavares territory.

The 1999 draft is a great place to start as it’s the draft where Burke made a series of moves to land the Sedins. Of note, the 4th overall pick in ’94 was traded so many times that the Rangers really should have drafted a relative of Gary “Suitcase” Smith.

Here are the trades involving high first round picks that I could find (I tried to keep it to the top 10ish draft picks). It’s certainly not an exhaustive or complete list by any means, but it hopefully provides some context and relative historical costs for a team looking to move from the seventh pick to first or second overall…

Canucks Acquire	Chicago Acquires
1999 1st round pick (4th overall)	2000 1st round pick (11th overall) Bryan McCabe

Canucks Acquire	Lightning Acquires
1999 1st round pick (1st overall)	1999 1st round pick (4th overall) 1999 3rd round picks (75 and 88th)

Thrashers Acquire	Canucks Acquire
1999 1st round pick (1st overall)	1999 1st round pick (2nd overall) 2000 conditional 3rd round pick

Rangers Acquire	Lightning Acquire
1999 1st round pick (4th overall)	2000 1st round pick (8th overall) 2000 3rd round pick (74th overall) Dan Cloutier Niklas Sundstrom

Flames Acquire	Rangers Acquire
1999 1st round pick (11th overall) Marc Savard	1999 1st round pick (9th overall) 1999 3rd round pick Jan Hlavac

Islanders Acquire	Ligthning Acquires
2000 1st round pick (5th overall) 2000 4th round pick (105th overall) 2000 7th round pick (202nd overall)	Kevin Weekes Kristian Kudroc 2001 2nd round pick (31st overall)

Avalanche Acquire	Carolina Acquires
2000 1st round pick (14th overall) 2000 2nd round picks (47th, 63rd) Noalan Pratt	Sandis Ozolinsh 2000 2nd round pick (32nd overall)

Senators Acquire	Islanders Acquire
2001 1st Round Pick (2nd overall) Zdeno Chara Bill Muckalt	Alexei Yashin

Columbus Blue Jackets Acquire	Florida Panthers Acquire
2001 1st round pick (1st overall)	2002 1st round pick (3rd overall) Option to swap 2003 1st round picks

Philadelphia Acquires	Lightning Acquire
2002 1st round pick (4th overall)	Ruslan Fedetenko 2002 2nd round picks (34th and 52nd)

Florida Acquires	Calgary Acquires
2002 1st round pick (9th)	2002 1st round pick (10th) 2002 4th round pick (99th)

Florida Acquires	Rangers Acquire
2002 1st round pick (10th) 2002 2nd round pick (40th) 2003 4th round pick (116th) Igor Ulanov Filip Novak	Pavel Bure2002 2nd round pick (33)

Philadelphia Acquires	Phoenix Acquires
2003 1st round pick (11th overall) 2002 second round pick (52nd)	Daymond Langkow

Penguins Acquire	Florida Acquires
2003 1st round pick (1st overall) 2003 3rd round pick (73rd)	2003 1st round pick (3rd overall) 2003 2nd round pick (55th)

Carolina Acquires	Blue Jackets Acquire
2004 1st round pick (4th overall)	2004 1st round pick (8th overall) 2004 2nd round pick (59th overall)

San Jose Acquires	Atlanta Acquires
2005 1st round pick (8th overall)	2005 1st round pick (12th overall) 2005 2nd round pick (49th overall) 2005 7th round pick (207th overall)

Rangers Acquire	Atlanta Acquires
2005 1st round pick (12th overall)	2005 1st round pick (16th overall) 2005 2nd round pick (41st overall)

San Jose Acquires	Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire
2007 1st round pick (13th overall) 2007 2nd round pick (44th overall) 2009 4th round pick	Vesa Toskala Mark Bell

San Jose Acquires	St. Louis Acquires
2007 1st round pick (9th overall)	2007 1st round pick (13th overall) 2007 2nd round pick (44th overall) 2008 3rd round pick (87th overall)

Islanders Acquire	Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire
2008 1st round pick (7th overall) 2008 3rd round pick (68th overall) 2009 2nd round pick	2008 1st round pick (5th overall)

Nashville Acquires	Islanders Acquire
2008 1st round pick (7th overall)	2008 1st round pick (9th overall) 2008 2nd round pick (40th overall)

What can we learn from all of these trades?

• That it’s a shame Burke can’t call on GMs such as Mike Milbury (man, that Yashin trade looks even worse with time), Rick Dudley (a 5th overall for Kevin Weekes and a 4th for Ruslan Fedetenko?) or good old JFJ (Toskala and Bell for a 1st, 2nd and a 4th.)


• Burke needs to talk Sandis Olzonish out of retirement. He’s the only guy on the list who was traded twice for a top 10 pick


• With all the variables involved (depth of draft, rank of picks exchanged, organizational need) it's difficult to determine a cost for the Leafs to move up into the top two, but historically the cost has been a swap of first round pick plus some combination of 2nd and 3rd round picks and lesser quality players


• Kaberle and/or Schenn seems to be an overpayment to get into the Tavares/Hedman sweepstakes.

The bigger challenge for Burke may be the off-ice side of the deal. Both the Isles and Bolts are having financial issues. The economic decline and shrinking salary cap means high draft picks and young prospects are more valuable than ever.

With the Isles potentially on the move, in need of a marquee player, and holding the #1 overall draft pick for the first time since 2000 (and just the fourth time in franchise history) I doubt that there’s a deal to be made in Nassau County.

Tampa and that number 2 pick may be a different story...I just hope if a deal is made it's along the lines of the Penguins - Panthers deal in 2003 or the Canes-CBJ trade in 2004.

**update**
It just struck me that when Burke traded up from from 11th to 4th in 1999, he dealt a promising young defenceman who had been acquired by the previous GM. How long until we see Simmons, WCH or Cox weigh in with a "history repeats" piece with Schenn as the cornerstone of Burke's draft day manouverings, just as McCabe was in 1999?

History Lesson Part II (Our team could be your life)

Funny, when the Leafs go a on a run and beat a bunch of also rans the company line in papers and across the airwaves is, “This team cant’ even lose right.”

The Leafs beat a contender or two and the same big juicy brains tell us the other team just didn’t show up or had an off night.

When the Leafs get bombed in back to back games (I turned off last night’s match at 4-0; no sour grapes here but how was there no goaltender interference call prior to Higgins goal?) it’s a sign of 40 years of systemic failure, short sighted quick fixes that never worked and the senility of Cliff Fletcher.

At least this season will be over soon and all eyes will turn to the draft, which reminds me of one of my all-time favourite NHL draft stories.

In the summer of 1983, the St. Louis Blues had been sold to a Saskatoon investor just weeks before the draft, but the move was vetoed by the NHL Board of Governors. Due to the late timing of the veto, the Blues were without an owner, GM, and coach. They were represented by an empty table at the 1983 NHL entry draft (remarkably, the table was smart enough not to take three Belleville Bulls in the early rounds of the draft). As it was reported in an old Leafs program:

Throughout each round of last summer’s entry draft at the Montreal Forum, NHL executive Vice-President Brian O’Neill would turn to his right, face a large table with a St. Louis Blues logo in the middle and ask 10 empty chairs if they’d like to select a player. Unfortunately, furniture does not communicate very well and O’Neill was forced to continue on with the next order of claim.

I posted that blurb over at uber-Leafs site Pension Plan Puppets a week ago and was urged to send an email to the guys at St. Louis Blues Game Time to see if they could provide more backstory or some additional details. Perhaps JFJ got an early start as a GM and had traded away every St. Louis pick in the draft?

It turns out they were just about to post a detailed entry all about the Blues and the 1983 Entry Draft. They were kind enough to send me an advance copy (bloggers write in advance and scheduled postings?!?)

Written by Jeff Fahrenkrog, here's a taste of what was going on with the Blues in 1983 and why they had no picks at the entry draft.

On January 12, 1983, Ralston Purina Company (RPC) told a stunned St. Louis community that it had received a purchase offer to buy the Blues from a Saskatoon based company known as Batoni-Hunter Enterprises, Ltd. Batoni’s President, Bill Hunter, was one of the founders of the World Hockey Association in 1972, and an owner of the WHA’s Edmonton Oilers before they joined the NHL in 1979...the Blues players first became aware of a possible move on December 7, 1982, on a road trip in Edmonton. There, representatives from the Saskatchewan Board of Trade were circulating detailed pamphlets entitled, “Saskatchewan in the NHL.”

That must have been one cold tractor drive from Saskatoon to Edmonton back in December 1982. I'd love to get my hands on one of those brochures...

On May 18, by a 15-3 vote, the NHL Board rejected Ralston’s sale to Hunter’s group. Among other things, the NHL felt such a small Canadian outpost had no chance of being self-sustaining or financially viable. This decision effectively ended Coliseum Holding’s bid for the Blues and the club’s transfer to Saskatoon. It also insured three months of chaos...Ralston inflamed the situation even further on Jun. 3, with its announcement that “it had no intention of remaining in the hockey business and no intention of operating the team next year.” Accordingly, they were “tendering” the Blues to the NHL “to operate, sell or otherwise dispose of in whatever manner the league desires.” Once the league decided what to do, RPC stated that it expected the NHL “to remit any proceeds from a dissolution or sale to the company. If the league decided to operate the team, Ralston expected to receive fair value for the franchise.”

Huge lawsuits, strange profits, and amazingly a full roster of Blues players emerged from the chaos.

It's a great story and even though it’s a beautiful Sunday out there, I’d recommend heading over to St. Louis Blues Game Time later today to read the full version. It’s always nice to know that one team out there once had a draft situation that was worse than those that led to Luongo, Kurvers, Raycroft…

What's the post title about? Click here to find out.

Just one thing makes me forget

The latest Red Line Report is out. This is a must read for anyone who like to track undrafted NHL prospects, something I'm guessing most Leaf fans are rather interested in these days.

According to the report, the top 10 prospects (at this point) are:

1. John Tavares C
2. Victor Hedman D
3. Jared Cowen D
4. Evander Kane C
5. Matt Duchene C
6. Magnus Pjrvi-Svensson LW
7. Oliver Ekman-Larsson D
8. Brayden Schenn C
9. Jordan Schroeder RW
10. Ryan Ellis D

What Difference Does it Make?

I wanted to use a lyric from Iron Maiden's Number of the Beast (6th round and all that) in the title of this post, but I just couldn't put my finger on the right one so The Smiths will have to do (amazingly, only two years separate those tracks).

And now a here's a heckuva lot of text for a near meaningless trade (only in Toronto would a sixth rounder for a marginal 37 year old be seen as some type of bell weather for the franchise; I should note, the traded asset is also conditional. Yeah, it's Brad May for a conditional sixth round pick. Now, Lord knows what the conditions are, but I'm guessing none of the dedicated media horde will be able to fill us in on that lovely detail either.)

Thanks to the entry draft database at Hockeydb, I was able to very quickly do a cut and paste job to look at 6th round draft picks from 1989 to 2004. There was no real method to selecting that particular stretch of dates. I wanted to get a large sample size (429 players) I didn't want to get too close to the present as some players taken that late may still yet make the NHL, or have made it but haven't logged enough games to stand out. I also wanted to avoid the earlier 80s when teams took flyers on Eastern Europeans in the later rounds (like the Canucks taking Pavel Bure in the 6th round in 1989), but mostly I wanted to see if I could get a feel of just what the value of a sixth round pick is.

As I was doing this entry and the attendant math between cleaning up from dinner and getting the kids to bed (while also desperately laundering my hockey gear for my Wednesday night game after forgetting to air out after playing pick-up on Saturday) I didn't take the time to do any sort of round by round comparison, but if anyone else has that data or link to it, by all means post it in the comments.

Here's what I found:

Anyone looking to dump on the Leafs for trading a sixth round pick for a broken down Brad May has about 14 big names to chose from to make their case as only 14 players (or 3.26% of the 429 I looked at) have managed to play in 500+ games, including the likes of Pavel Bure, Daniel Alfredsson, Darcy Tucker, Dallas Drake and Craig Conroy; I'll toss Pavel Datsyuk into that mix (400+ games) as well as Andrei Markov as he's a dreaded Hab (I'll also give even odds that one or more of those names will be in Damien Cox's next column).

On a points per game basis (unfair to those D-men, I know) only three players: Bure, Datsyuk and Alfredsson are over the 0.80 mark (that's 0.7% of the 429 players drafted for those of you keeping score). In the next tier down, only the recently waived Jussi Jokinen is better than 0.60 pts/gm and only 10 players out of 429 hit the 0.5 pts/game mark (excluding Rick Wallin who played 19 games with the Minnesota Wild and Dan Lambert who had a cup of coffee with the Nordiques, playing 29 games over two seasons in the early 90s).

In terms of total games played (note: I'm not double counting here, so it's guys that played 500+; or 400-499; or 300-399; etc.) there's not a lot to choose from. With 429 players to choose from, nearly 70% never played a single game in the NHL. Here's how that breaks down:

500+ 3.26%
400+ 2.8%
300+ 3.26%
200+ 2.56%
100+ 3.73%
1 to 99 15.62%
No Games 68.76%

In short: it's long odds that an impact player can be found as late as the sixth round. Sure, it happens and, like the lottery, you can' t win if you don't have a ticket, but half a dozen names out of 16 drafts isn't exactly inspiring.

Not that I'm being a Leaf apologist here either, Brad May doesn't exactly define inspirational either.