Sidebar Blues

I’m contemplating a response to Steve Maich's inept Macleans piece on why the Leafs Stink (and wondering when Masthead Magazine or the Ryerson Reveiw of Journalism will feature their cover story on why Macleans Magazine stinks. I've got a few insights I can offer up...)

In the interim, while the Leafs clean-out their lockers and Leafs Nation turns its lonely eyes to Monday's draft lottery (C'mon Phoenix - 24th place is still within the Leafs grasp!) I thought I'd have a quick go at the side-bar that accompanies the larger Macleans piece.

The sidebar, by Chris Selley (whose reporting I usually like) looks at the Leafs' worst deals as part of the overall, so-called "examination" as to why the Leafs, uh, suck.

Of the seven trades cited by Macleans, any hockey fan would agree that the top three deals - Mahovolich, Sittler and MacDonald - were all terrible deals for the club, the franchise and the fans.

No debate here.

In fact, I think most sports fans will attest it’s difficult to look back at these franchise altering trades – one can't help but wonder what the GM was thinking and maybe even daydream a little about what could have been. I can’t imagine how difficult it is for an Islanders fan to look back on the Milbury era.

After these top three trades, Macleans is far less persuasive. When you have 40 years of transactions to draw upon, there's going to be more than a few mistakes. I suspect the Leafs aren't any better or any worse than most NHL clubs. But that doesn't exactly fit with the "subtle" narrative of a Leafs suck cover story.

I’m not sure that the Kordic for Courtnall deal is really deserving of a top seven notation, and if it is, the Leafs clearly haven’t too much to be ashamed about. Down Goes Brown wrote an admirable defense of this trade and the reason it was completed – his take is worth the read (more so than the entire Macleans side-bar).

As for the rest of the list, I'm going to split some hairs.

Tom Kurvers for Scott Neidermayer, should actually be Kuvers for a first round pick (who turned out to be Scott Niedermayer). Given that the Leafs of the late 80s thought scouting referred to teams playing between Oshawa and Belleville and were all but wholly reliant on Central Scouting reports for their draft table, I’m doubtful the awful 1988 Leaf club would have drafted Neidermayer. Yeah, it’s still a terrible trade, but call it what it is – a deal for a pick that turned out amazingly well for the New Jersey Devils.

Kenny Jonsson and Roberto Luongo for Wendel Clark and Mathieu Schneider is another deal where it was a pick that was dealt and that pick turned out to be Roberto Luongo. To suggest that the Leafs would have drafted Luongo is a stretch at best and misleading at worst.

Something to bear in mind when looking at deals like these two: Robert Picard was dealt for a third round pick that turned out to be Patrick Roy. If it’s positioned as Picard for Roy, it’s clearly one of the worst deals of all time. But a player like Picard for a third round pick is a deal many a GM pulls off each and every year.

Steve Sullivan for nothing – this wasn’t a trade, it was a questionable waiver wire decision. The Leafs chose to protect Dmitri Khristich in lieu of Sullivan, admittedly a mistake. While Macleans cites Sullivan's “impressive 180 goals and 281 assists in 520 games” they fail to mention Sullivan’s annual invisibility act in the playoffs (ask folks in Nashville about that one). It's the main reason the Quinn administration deemed Sullivan expendable.

Maybe I expect too much from a news magazine that promises to enlighten and engage. Maybe as a Leafs fan I expect the Doug Jarvis for Greg Hubick deal to make the list (or at least make the list ahead of a waiver wire transaction).

It also might have been nice for Macleans to have provided a bit context to help readers better understand these deals - what do NHL experts make of them? How do these deals compare to other deals being made at the time? Where do these transactions fit in alongside some of the top trades of the past 40 years.

Of course, had they done so, transactions 4 through 7 wouldn't look so bad. They're no Red Berenson for Ted Taylor*

*Certainly, none of the Leaf transaction rival any of the all-time great one-sided deals like Cam Neely and a first round pick for Barry Pederson; Gretzky from Indianapolis to Edmonton for future considerations; Alek Stojanov for Markus Naslund; the original Lindros deal for Forsberg and $15MM; Patrick Roy and Mike Keane for Jocelyn Thibault, Martin Rucinsky, and Andrei Kovalenko; Luongo for Bertuzzi; Pavol Demitra for Christer Olsson; Briere for Gratton; or Mark Messier for Louie DeBrusk, Bernie Nicholls, and Steven Rice or (heaven forbid Macleans mention it) maybe even Gilmour, Macoun, Wamsley, Natress and Manderville for Leeman, Petit, Reese, Berube, and Godynyuk.

Team Softness = Injuries?

At the conclusion of last year's season, JFJ and MLSE threw around the meme that the Leafs "lost the most man games in the NHL due to injury" like JFJ threw around no-movement and no trade clauses.

At the time, I had a big problem with that that statement as:

1. I hate excuses (I think what-ifs and excuses were the cornerstones of the JFJ era)
2. If you look at the bulk of last year's injuries, they were to fringe players (Wozniewski was 17% of the total; 4th liners and Marlies were another 22%)
3. Good teams find ways to win, even when their big guys are hurting

What I didn't stop to consider was why the Leafs were so banged up.

After getting physically manhandled by Washington two nights in a row, the Leafs are once again threatening to run away with the injury title. It struck me that maybe the Leafs suffer so many injuries because they're a soft team.

Last year it was a sea of white shirts staring at their skate laces after Janssen laid out Kaberle.

The last two nights nobody laid a finger on Erskine and Eminger and the questionable hits (and one lovely end of game spear) kept on coming. Poni and Steen are both out as a result and White and Antropov were lucky to avoid the IR...

I'm far too lazy to crunch the numbers, but it would be interesting to see how many of the man games lost over the past 100+ games were the result of other teams playing big while the Leafs played small...

Oh, that plan

Buried in a story from Dave Perkins in today's Toronto Star (16/01/08) is this little piece o' news from JFJ:

"The worst thing we did was finish a point out of the playoffs last year and get the 13th draft choice. The year before we missed by two points and got the 13th pick, which we traded away,'' said Ferguson, clearly indicating that a team gone deep in the tank can at least take solace in eventually landing a top draft choice.

"That wouldn't be the worst thing in the world,'' he said of a quality pick, adding that a plan to sacrifice present for future as a method of rebuilding was proposed a couple of years ago – presumably to the same Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment board of directors now said to be shopping his job around.

"That plan was not approved."

My first reaction to this news: at least he tried, I can't believe the deadly combination of stupidity and greed of the MLSE board.

My second reaction (about 15 seconds later): Why isn't that a direct quote from JFJ? It's contained between quotes, but Perkins doesn't have JFJ actually utter those words...

My third reaction (about 0.5 seconds later): Man, JFJ has failed at pretty much everything he's tried to do during his tenure. He has my sympathy for not being able to get a re-build plan approved by the Board (in his defence, maybe a tag-team of Lamoriello and Burke couldn't get such a plan past Peddie and his minions); however, he still blew it when he was charged with putting a competitive team on the ice to try to win now.

I don't mean to kick a guy when he's down (and I've said repeatedly that JFJ deserved to either be fired or extended - none of this no man's land nonsense that MLSE has engaged in) but when you think about the pressures put on him by the MLSE board, stop to consider JFJ's response. Count the number of players he's signed to play for the Blue and White that are no longer in the NHL: Berg, Khavanov, Domi, Green, Belfour, Lindros, Aubin, Allison, O'Neill...soon to be joined by Raycroft and likely Wozniewski too. That's just off the top of my head and it has to be the most by any GM in the league. Factor in the bizarre-o world trade for Yanic Perrault (how's that 32nd overall pick looking for 15 games of an injured 4th line centre looking now?) and you've got one lousy record of work.

This was JFJ's response to a win now mandate?

It's clear to me that despite the Board not supporting his plan, despite the fact that he may be a great guy, despite the fact that he's being needlessly humiliated and generally mistreated by MLSE - JFJ is still an incompetent GM, he made this mess and he needs to go.

The bigger question (the biggest question really) is: can Peddie/the MLSE Board be contained or will it be more of the same misguided direction and meddling no matter who gets hired to run this club?

Do the Collapse

I hope all of you had a wonderful holiday season and a great New Year.

The only thing I managed to do over the holidays was grow a beard. (Well, it might not constitute a beard - I just haven’t shaved since Christmas Eve). Somewhat shockingly my newly hirsute chin hasn’t brought the Leafs the expected luck. Perhaps this facial hair thing only works in the playoffs…

This Leafs team and organization still leaves me cold; such a culture of losing that seems to be getting more and more ingrained...since this team loves to cough up the last minute goal and throw away points, I thought I’d have a look at who Coach Mo has been tapping for ice time in critical late-game situations – specifically those tied /close games versus Carolina, Tampa, the Islanders and Tampa again.

The Leafs picked up four points from this series of games when they should have easily walked away with at least six if not more. Looking at line combinations, I would suggest in at least two of those games it was the Leafs poor line changes/match-ups that cost them the game and the points. Keep that in mind come March when the Leafs are desperately in need of points and chasing that last playoff spot.

After looking at who's on the ice with the game on the line, the critical question I'd like to ask (or better yet, have answered is): Is the inability to get the right guys on the ice at the right time a failure of the coaching staff or do the Leafs simply not have enough depth to hide certain weak ES guys (Tucker, Wellwood, Blake) in late game situations?

I’ll let you read on and then decide…

December 18 Leafs v. Hurricanes

With just under 2 minutes to go in a 2-0 game, Maurice ices what has arguably been the Leafs best forward line, while Gill has been strong on D this year…

White
Gill
Steen
Stajan
Devereaux

Unfortunately, Caroline cashes one in to make it 2-1.

Maurice comes back with arguably his top 5 man unit:

Kaberle
Kubina
Ponikarovski
Sundin
Antropov

And the Canes score off the bad turnover/cough-up by Poni who was staring down an open net…if I were behind the bench (and lord help Leaf fans if that were the case) I’d likely roll the lines the exact same way…

December 20 Leafs v. Tampa

Two nights later, the Leafs and Bolts are tied 1-1 on the road late in the game and Maurice rolls out:

Kubina
Kaberle
Blake
Wellwood
Tucker

You can blame Kubina’s broken stick all you want (and hey, the Leafs and all of their spokespeople sure did) but the fact is Kaberle covered for Kubina and broke up the ensuing rush. It was Blake’s soft turnover at the Leafs’ blue line (remember that) coupled with Tucker’s failure to cover his man that gave Lecavalier the chance to put the puck in the back of the net.

If I were coach, that forward line wouldn’t see the ice at ES or PK when there’s less than five minutes remaining in the game. Tucker is murder at ES, Wellwood is a creative playmaker, but couldn’t go into a corner if he lived in a square and Blake leads the league in turnovers. I really don’t see how this is a winning combination. I would love to know what Maurice was thinking here…

December 26 Leafs v. Islanders

It’s overtime, four on four, tie game. Leafs have just come off a PP that generated lots of chances so Kubina and Kaberle aren’t available to Maurice. The Leafs change on the fly, sending out:

White
Strahlman
Wellwood
Blake

Gill isn’t the fastest skater, but I’m still very surprised Maurice would go with a rookie and little-man White at that point in the game. What makes this line change especially questionable is the forward paring – the Leafs smallest/greenest D with the two softest and smallest forwards in Wellwood and Blake. I don’t understand this pairing at all, especially given the forward's presence on the ice for the winning (losing goal) in the final minute against Tampa in just the previous game.

So what happens? Blake turns the puck over at the Isles’ blue line (quelle surpise!) the Leafs have a soft back-check and Comrie pots the winner off a rebound.

Of note - the Stajan, Steen, Devereaux line doesn’t see a single second of ice during OT…once more, would love to know if any of the media horde questioned the coach on his decision to play small in the extra frame.

The Leafs go on to sleep through a game in Philly and get positively smoked by the Rangers before going up against the cellar-dwelling Lightning on January 1, 2008.

With the Leafs up by one going into the third, Maurice shortens his bench. Belak, Bell, Tlusty get a single shift at the three minute mark and that’s it for them. (Good thing Bell was part of that Toskala trade and is under contract for one more year at $2M+…).

With a minute to go, Maurice reunites the Steen, Stajan, Devereaux line, which had been broken up for this game (Steen played with Blake and Sundin; Stajan played with Tucker and Kilger). Tampa pots an odd one off a deflected long-shot and the game goes to OT and the shoot-out.

I think this was a good call by Maurice, as that line has been very dependable and it was a bit of an odd goal that tied it up…thankfully he kept Wellwood in the press box and Tucker and Blake didn’t see the ice in the final three minutes of the game.

To sum up: by my estimation, that makes Maurice 2 for 4 in terms of managing his bench during critical moments of these four games, which isn’t good enough.

Admittedly, these odd coaching decisions are nothing new. In game one, Maurice sent Tucker out in OT against the Heatley line when the Leafs had the last change at home. But by now, you’d think the coaching staff would have seen enough of Tucker, Blake and Wellwood to know that they shouldn’t be on the ice at ES at critical points in the game. While I’m hopeful the club has learned from those games in Tampa and Carolina (though I really doubt it).

Perhaps we'll get another chance to see the Leafs try to match lines against the Pens tonight...hopefully Tucker and Blake can avoid lining up against Sid and Malkin.

What if Muckler says No?

The Leafs are looking for a senior hockey executive to mentor JFJ. It seems after four years of being the GM of a storied franchise in one of hockey's biggest markets, poor JFJ is apparently "still learning" and in need of some senior counsel.

What did the best and brightest have to say so far?

Scotty Bowman - Nope.

Bobby Clarke - Uh uh.

Brian Burke - Forget it.

David Poile - "no thanks"

How many other senior hockey guys have heard from Mr. Peddie and the gang and turned this "opportunity" down?

More importantly - what if Muckler says no?

Think about the roster of hockey talent that will have declined to have anything to do with this allegedly storied franchise.

If Muckler says no, does MLSE figures out that adding another layer to the hockey department isn't the best way forward?

If Muckler says no, does it sink in that publicly emasculating your GM might not be the best way to attract top talent?

If Muckler says no, what does this mean for the divided board and the short-term prospects for JFJ?

And ultimately, if Muckler says no, what does that say for Peddie's ability to leverage and sell the one thing that is most central to the MLSE brand - the Toronto Maple Leafs - to actual hockey men?

I don't know about the rest of Leafs Nation, but here's to hoping Muckler says no.

Silver Fox to help the Gelding?

Following the public emasculation of JFJ, former Leaf executive and HHOF member Cliff Fletcher has thrown his hat into the three ring circus that is MLSE’s search for a senior consultant.

Fletcher’s first run with the Leafs started off with tremendous promise; however, like all things Toronto Maple Leafs, it ended with a whimper and left the franchise in a bit of a shambles.

Given the overwhelming success the Coyotes have experienced with Fletcher in a consulting role (the GM and much of his executive team fired, a $7.5M contract for Jovo, signing Brett Hull, a dismal draft history, the worst finish in franchise history, missing the playoffs four of the last five years…) I can certainly see why MLSE would be interested in bringing his unique vision to Toronto to assist JFJ.

Here’s a quick look at the possible new MSLE tandem:

	Cliff Fletcher	John Ferguson Junior
Nickname	Silver Fox	The Gelding*
Early hockey influences in their careers	Studied at the knee of the great Sam Pollock of the Montreal Canadiens	Roomed with Paul DiPietro with the Fredericton Canadiens
Big Decisions	Engineered blockbuster trade that brought Gilmour to Toronto	Once rented Happy Gilmore from Blockbuster
Respective teams’ winning percentage in the three years prior to their joining the organization	Phoenix 2001-2004 .548	TML 2001-2004 .585
Respective teams’ winning percentage while they were with the organization	Phoenix 2005-2007 .474	TML 2005-2007: .577
Made the playoffs…	20% - Once in five years as GM/Consultant of Phoenix	33% - Once in three years as GM
Great moments in prognostication	“draft schmaft”	"I did not anticipate a year-long [labour] stoppage…"
First and second round draft picks traded while GM of the Leafs	1st to Philadelphia 1st to NYI 2nd to Hartford 2nd to Pittsburgh (and many flips of first round picks to move up and down in the draft)	1st to NYR 1st to San Jose 2nd to NYR2nd to Phoenix 2nd to San Jose (Also dealt former first round pick Tukka Rask)
The Gretzky Connection?	Worked out a deal to make Gretzky a Leaf but was vetoed by ownsership	Still willing to consummate that deal for Gretzky if he can find cap room for Gretzky's salary demands

*not really, but I'm hoping it will catch on

Someone to Watch Over Me

In most organizations the probation period is, what, about three months? At MLSE it appears to be about four years.

Yesterday, MLSE President and CEO Richard “Dick” Peddie confirmed that MLSE has retained an executive search firm to hire a senior hockey executive to provide counsel to their hockey department.

In what can only be charitably described as backhanded compliment, Peddie said that, despite JFJ being the GM position since of August of 2003 and irrevocably in charge of the Leafs for the past two year, his hand-picked GM is “still learning.”

Ouch.

The admission that all is not going well with JFJ’s tenure is like some sort of awful metaphorical eating contest - Peddie choking down some crow while publicly serving JFJ a great big piece of humble pie.

It also (somewhat surprisingly) confirms a story that Steve Simmons (gak!) broke over two weeks ago.

Despite two weeks of near daily media coverage, MLSE’s intentions are about as clear as JFJ’s Master Plan (you know the one-year deal to clear cap space to sign the uber UFAs who never materialized plan, which became the build-not buy plan that became the deal three first round and two second round picks in four years plan, which sort of fit in with the tougher to play against plan that didn’t really work out, leaving the Leafs with the make the playoffs at all cost and CYA plan. Whew.)

If it weren’t so pathetic and I weren’t such a Leafs fan the punch lines would be coming faster than an Aloisius Q. Iafrate slapshot (Peddie said to Howard Berger, "What I've told John is to behave like he's the General Manager..." maybe if JFJ had been given that advice four years ago, the Leafs might not be in the mess they're in.)

Here’s the media trail*:

June 14, Steve Simmons was the first with the dirt on MLSE’s efforts to hire an external hockey professional to act in senior consulting role.

On June 22, the Star ran an article headlined “Leafs hang out help wanted sign” with an official non-denial from Peddie: "Richard Peddie, president of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment Ltd., would not comment on the club's interest in Muckler but did say bringing an experienced hockey man on board has not been ruled out."

June 23 – The next day, buried in a Damien Cox article, Cox wrote: “With MLSE chairman Larry Tanenbaum and director Dale Lastman unrelenting in their drive to get rid of Ferguson or bring in a senior hockey executive to add yet another complicating layer to the Leaf bureaucracy, you have to believe Ferguson knew that he no longer can patiently build for a future of which he can't count on being part of.”

Two days later, Bob MacKenzie gets in on it, confirming details of the executive search firm.

June 26 – Simmons updates his original scoop, claiming Bowman and Burke have declined the opportunity with MLSE, that Muckler has been added to the list, and that the position may not be as autonomous as previous reports have suggested.

The same day, Cox writes a piece in his “blog” (why the Star insists on calling Cox’s second 500 word column a blog is beyond me…) that pretty much sums up my feelings on the matter:

If the Leafs really believe they need a "senior" person, then they should simply can Ferguson and let the "senior" person take over, clean house and start fresh…these Leafs need fewer layers, not more.

David Johnson is the first blogger to weigh in, offering some serious thoughts on why Muckler may not be the best man for the gig.

The very next day, Sportsnet’s Jim Kelley echoes David Johnson’s thoughts: “If you're going to hire a guy to eventually be Ferguson's successor, perhaps even in mid-season next season, well perhaps you want someone who has a track record in the position.”

Mirtle sort of weighs in too.

And that brings us to June 28 with the story everywhere and Peddie pretty much confirming the content of Simmons’ June 14 article.

If you stitch together two weeks and twelve pieces of coverage, what do you get?

Not a whole lot:

• Tannenbaum and Lastman are not JFJ supporters, Peddie appears to be (or is at the very least executing a very public CYA move to put some distance between himself and JFJ)
• MLSE has retained an executive search firm to find a senior hockey executive to provide additional counsel to MLSE
• Implicitly, the search for senior counsel to "help" JFJ suggests the MLSE board has less than 100% confidence in their GM
• JFJ will not get an extension at this time, but his job is allegedly safe (wtf?)
• Bowman, and possibly Burke, were offered the gig and said "no thanks"
• Muckler appears to be the "compromise" candidate (FWIW, the last compromise candidate at MLSE was JFJ and didn't that just turn out golden?)
• The job is either fully autonomous and the equivalent to Colangelo or Embry's position with the Raptors, or the new hire has to keep JFJ and likely most of JFJ's staff (that's two wtf's if you're keeping score)

While I do feel for JFJ for what is essentially a very public demotion (especially given the health of his father) I think it was a long time coming.

JFJ was either unable, or unwilling in the face of board pressure, to stick to his very public plans to rebuild this franchise. He has made a series of questionable moves that have left the club mired in the middle of the pack.

The team may be better off than when he was hired, but four years and many mistakes later, they're certainly no closer to challenging for anything more than a playoff spot.

As a Leaf fan for nearly 40 years - from the return of Punch Imlach to the days of Brophy; from Tom Watt and Doug Carpenter to Luca Cereda and Jeff Ware; from Mike Smith, Anders Hedberg and Ken Dryden to Boyes for Nolan; from the hiring of JFJ "the compromise candidate" to Bell and a 2nd for Perreault - I've learned to never underestimate the Leafs' ability to make poor decisions.

That said, the sooner JFJ is removed from a position of decision making authority, the better.

*Say what you will about Steve Simmons and his hyperbolic columns, but he’s had two of the biggest scoops in Leaf Land this off-summer. While his story of Sundin’s hip may have made it sound like the Big Swede had contracted Ebola, a careful read of that column demonstrates a Clinton-like ability to use modifiers and passive language to cover his ass. He's also the guy that broke this story two full weeks before MLSE owned up to the truth...

A culture of losing: Compare and Contrast

In the final minute of game 2 of the Eastern Semi-Finals, a rather blatant foul on LeBron James was ignored, the Cavs went on to lose the game 79-76 and went down 2-0 to the Pistons. When asked about the non-call, Coach Mike Brown said: "The officials get paid a lot of money, and that's their job. If they don't see anything, they don't see anything. We're a no-excuse team. We've got to get ready for Game 3."

When asked about that same non-call LeBron James stepped up and said: "We're a no-excuse team, you know, and we can't look at the last play as why we lost. We've just got to get better."

When asked by Canadian Press to provide a post-mortem on the Leaf's most-recent season, JFJ said "We were number one in the league to man games lost to injury in what turned out to be the toughest division in the East and probably in the league to qualify."

When asked about the impact Sean Hill's delayed suspension had on the Leafs and Islanders, JFJ said, "For sure I think we would have made the playoffs."

Open Letter to Leafs Fans

I've been getting lots of hits lately from people who are looking for the advert/letter that the Leafs put in the Toronto Sun earlier this week. Luckily, the folks over at Torontoist have a scan and a full copy of the text.

You can read the whole thing, along with Torontoists commentary, here.

Here's what the actual ad said:

Thank you for your unwavering support during the 2006-07 season.

We are disappointed that we didn't achieve our primary goal of advancing to the playoffs and competing for the Stanley Cup. It has been an exciting season, with several teams in an unprecedented battle for the few final playoff spots. You were with us every step of the way.

Leafs fans are the greatest fans in hockey. We share your disappointment. However, we accomplished much along the way that puts us in a great position moving forward to pick up those few points in the standings needed to reach that next level.

This season provided exciting win streaks that resulted from outstanding team play in the face of injury and adversity; the further development of our young players; memorable tributes to Leafs legends Borje Salming, Red Kelly, and Hap Day; and the reunion of the 1967 Stanley Cup Champions.

Preparations for next season are already underway. We know we will be better next year as so many of our younger players will have gained from the experience. Every member of our staff will work diligently in the weeks and months ahead to continue to move the team forward toward the ultimate goal of bringing the Cup back to Toronto.

If I was the Leafs communications director, I don't know that this is the route I would have gone. A badly written letter in one of the Toronto dailies? Really? This is the best they could do?

If I woke up on Monday and was a majority shareowner of MLSE, here's what I would do:

1. Fire JFJ.
2. Hire Mastermind GM
3. ---
4. Win Stanley Cup

===

I vented earlier about the Leafs man games lost to injury meme and sure enough in the very first post-elimination story to hit the wire (filed by Pierre Le Brun for CP) there it was: the most man games lost to injury.

Boo hoo.

Yeah, the Leafs did miss 353 man games, but before we use that little meme as a crutch let's have a look at how that total is generated:

Injuries

Player	Games Missed
Wozniewski	59
Peca	47
Wellwood	34
Colaiacovo	34
Antropov	24
Tucker	26
Kubina	20
Ponikarovsky	11
Kaberle	8
Sundin	7
Misc. Scrubs	79

Knock of Woz and the day to day injuries suffered by the likes of Newbury and suddenly 130+ of those games disappear.

Antropov is good to miss a quarter of the season every year, so let's not let JFJ's tear ducts go into overdrive just yet. Add in Cola's trips to the IR and that total of 353 is down to 150 or so, which is likely low for for most NHL clubs.

Did injuries hurt the Leafs? Yes, but is the league-leading stat really all that revealing or is it a red herring? Unless Woz is the missing link for the Leafs, this shouldn't provide any sort of excuse for JFJ not to be jettisoned.

===
I thought I'd provide a quick update on contract status and cap hits for the Leafs roster as I'm sure we'll all be playing armchair GM for the next few days. (In fact, I'm going really get into playing armchair GM this year. On Tuesday, I'm going to pretend it's NHL trade deadline day. In the spirit of JFJ, I'll be cleaning up my files, setting up some iPod playlists - really digging The Island's Don't Call Me Whitney, Bobby - going for a long lunch and generally sitting on my hands. It's going to be a great day of wasted opportunities. Just to be safe, I'm going to leave my cell phone at home...

The Leafs have a number of UFAs that they need to walk run away from and a surprising number of RFAs that should make for some interesting negotiations (even though noted Grandma pusher Bobby Clarke isn't a GM anymore, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of the Leaf RFAs like White have a stupid bucket of money thrown at them).

I'd like to fill in these charts to indicate who has a no-trade clause and who has a no-movement clause to make roster reconstruction projects a bit easier.

FORWARDS

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	o7-08 Cap Hit
Antropov	F	UFA	$1.07M	---
Battaglia	F	UFA	$500K	---
Devereaux	F	UFA	$450K	---
Green	F	UFA	$500K	---
Kilger	F	Signed to 2009	$900K	$900K
Newbury	F	Signed to 2009	$450K	$450K
Ondrus	F	Signed to 2008	$475K	$475K
O'Neill	F	UFA	$1.5M	---
Peca	F	UFA	$2.5M	---
Perrault	F	UFA	$700K	---
Pohl	F	Signed to 2009	$463K	$463K
Ponikarovsky	F	RFA	$713	---
Stajan	F	Signed to 2008	$875K	$875K
Steen	F	Signed to 2008	$901K	$901K
Tucker	F	Signed to 2012	$1.59M	$3M
Sundin	F	Club option	$6.33M	TBD
Wellwood	F	Signed to 2008	$875K	$875K
Westrum	F	Signed to 2008	$463K	$463K
Williams	F	RFA	$507K	---

Defence

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	o7-08 Cap Hit
Belak	D	Signed to 2008	$670K	$670K
Colaiacovo	D	RFA	$825K	---
Gill	D	Signed to 2009	$2.075M	$2.075M
Harrison	D	RFA	$450K	---
Kronwall	D	RFA	$625	---
Kaberle	D	Signed to 2011	$4.25M	$4.25M
Kubina	D	Signed to 2010	$5M	$5M
McCabe	D	Signed to 2011	$5.75M	$5.75M
White	D	RFA	$453K	---
Wozniewski	D	Signed to 2008	$463	$463

Goalies

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	o7-08 Cap Hit
Aubin	G	UFA	$525K	---
Raycroft	G	Signed to 2009	$2M	$2M

Tedesco, Ferguson and me...

The front page of today's (25/03/06) National Post is dominated by a story from Theresa Tedesco on the sad state of my beloved Toronto Maple Leafs.

Up front, I want to make clear that I'm a big fan of Tedesco's book detailing the take-over of the Leafs from a publicly traded company to the behemoth that is MLSE, but after reading her story today, I have to say she might be better off in the FP and away from the sports pages.

The article is on the mark when it sticks to ownership and business decisions, it's when she speaks to the sporting side it makes about as much sense as some of Quinn's recent coaching decisions.

It should also be noted that this piece is clearly an effort at damage control by friends of Mr. Ferguson.

Let's have a look...

TORONTO - Amid the public wrenching over whether the Toronto Maple Leafs will qualify for the NHL playoffs, the owners of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment Ltd. say they have been privately watching events unfold pretty much according to plan.

And although no one at MLSE will admit it publicly, the Leafs' post-season prospects for the next couple of seasons are not expected to be any more promising.

Ok so far, I pretty much couldn't agree with her more. Most experts said last September that this club would be life and death to make the playoffs. They're currently losing 3-1 to the Habs (make that a 6-2 loss), in the latest of many "must-win" games.

Paragraph 3 is where Ms. Tedesco starts to sound like she's dipped into the Captain Morgan with Harry and Bob.

That unspoken prognosis is largely the consequence of a youth movement advocated by Leafs general manager John Ferguson Jr. in a blueprint he presented two years ago to MLSE's owners -- a strategy that, sources say, will likely result in the firing of head coach Pat Quinn at the end of this season, as well as the departure of fan favourite Tie Domi and a handful of other underperforming veterans.

There are several problems with this paragraph, if JFJ's advocating or planning a yourth movement:

Why didn't he buy out more of the team in the off-season? Sundin, Belfour and McCabe account for about 35% of the team's salary.

Why did JFJ sign so many older players, many of whom (Domi, Berg, etc.) were inked to multi-year deals?

Why didn't he move all of the team's unrestricted free agents at the trade deadline for picks and prospects?

Tedesco continues, with a greater focus on JFJ's business decisions - moving the St.Johns team to Toronto, consolidating training, medical staff and practice facilites and increasing scouting staff. But when she gets back to the team that JFJ "inherieted" she's back on some thin ice.

Making matters worse, Mr. Ferguson also inherited a team that had traded away its top draft choices seven times in the past 10 years.

JFJ traded a first and second round pick and prospects for Brian Leetch. Leetch went on to play 15 games for the Leafs.

However, the 310-day NHL lockout quickly tested the company's resolve and the general manager's ability to walk the talk. Three months before the lockout began in September, 2004, Mr. Ferguson re-signed Mr. Belfour, a 40-year-old Vezina Trophy winner and all-star goalie, to a two-year contract plus an option for a third year -- totalling US$17-million -- despite his advancing age.

JFJ should be fired for this contract alone.

In the summer of 2004, Ed Belfour was 39 years old with chronic back injuries. There is wide-spread talk of salary caps, long-term work stoppages and general uncertainty.

JFJ sweeps into action, signing Belfour to a three year contract worth $15.5 million (2 years at $7million, an option at $1.5m) that includes a no-trade clause.

Think about this for a minute.

There's no hockey on the horizon for a minimum of six months, and more likely a year. Your goalie is 39 years old and requires invasive back surgery. He hasn't made it out of the second round of the playoffs in years. He looked quite average in the series against the Flyers and he didn't steal a single game in the playoffs.

For this, he gets a multi-year deal with a bonus and a no trade clause.

Who in their right mind would tender this contract?

I get the feeling I put more thought into managing my rotisserie team than this guy does running the Leafs.

Oh, and let's not forget Ms. Tedesco's article and the master plan for a youth movement (anchored by a 40 year old goalie with a bad back). Ms. Tedesco continues:

The following year, in June, 2005, MLSE's board reviewed the progress of Mr. Ferguson's strategic plan as the lockout appeared to be coming to an end. This time, the general manager had to address the fate of a handful of players in the twilight years of their careers who were set to become unrestricted free agents.

I would have added three words to that last sentence, "by doing nothing."

The Leafs, like all teams, had the opportunity to buy-out any existing contracts. Detroit moved on Hatcher, Whitney, Joseph and McCarty; the Rangers parted ways with Holik; the Flyers with Amonte, LeClair; etc.

About 40% of the Leafs' payroll is held by three players: Sundin ($6.3M/year); Belfour ($5.6M/year) and McCabe ($3.5M/Year). Biggest flock of free agents in the history of the NHL and the Leafs did nothing. This inaction left the club with $24 M to sign 19 players.

Under pressure to make a move, Mr. Ferguson extended Mr. Quinn's coaching contract for an undisclosed amount.

He followed up with a series of deals that gave little outward indication that MLSE was planning an overhaul of its most prized asset.

For example, shortly after the NHL governors and the NHL Players' Association agreed to end the lockout in July, 2005, which included a US$39-million salary cap, he allowed Messrs. Roberts and Nieuwendyk to bolt to the Florida Panthers and cut ties with winger Robert Reichel. He replaced those veterans with three others -- Eric Lindros and Jason Allison, both signed as free agents, and Jeff O'Neill, whom the Leafs secured by giving up a conditional draft pick.

Remember, this is part of the master-plan to build with youth from within.

Let's look at the rest of JFJ's post-labour stoppage decisions (no snickering please):

a) acquiring Jeff O'Neill who's clearly out of shape, who didn't play during the lockout, and who's goal scoring prowess has been going down like a coked-up Paris Hilton in a room full of camcorders. After one 30 goal season (likely a contract year) he went on to score 14 goals in 2003-2004. Guess what? He's potted 16 goals for the Leafs this season and is on target for 18.

b) Signing Eric Lindros - a guy that has averaged about 50 games a season for the last five years. Guess what? Lindros played 33 games for the Leafs before going out for the year.

c) signing Jason Alison to an incentive laden contract that's going to cost the club $4.5M (yup, $4.5M). Has any player since Craig Janney put a softer 50+ points on the board than Alison? 30 of his points have to be second assists. His plus minus is horrific, and many of his mistakes are of the terminal variety (it was his giveaway that led to game winners from Healty and Grier). In a game dominated by speed you need a calendar to time this guy; I'm surprised a crazed leaf fan hasn't climbed the glass, jumped in the zamboni and drove over him. Lord knows Alison couldn't outskate it, even if it had three flat tires…

d) signing Tie Domi to a 2 year, $2.5M deal. Domi has one goal in his last 49 games. When Ondrus got run from behind in Pittsburgh, Domi did nothing. When he was benched, he whined. When there were trade rumours, he threatend to retire. This is leadership? This is character?

e) talking Antropov out of playing in Russia and qualify him for 2 years at $1.1M; Antropov has only once played more than 65 games in a season and has averaged 24 points a season. Furthermore, in 28 playoff games, he has 5 points. Guess what? Antropov is on target to play 58 games this year and score 25 points – just like has his whole career. Good thing JFJ locked him up for one more season, wouldn't want a player like that to get away.

f) signing Aki Berg for $1.1M - think about that for a second - a fifth or sixth string defenceman for nearly triple the league minimum salary. Carolina picked up Mike Commodore for a third round pick, he makes $500K; Buffalo picked up Lydman for a 3rd round pick, he makes $700K. We resigned a pylon and gave him a raise.

g) Paying Wade Belak $720,000 - that's $270K above the league minimum and about $719,000 more than he's worth.

h) Landing Marius Czerkawski for $500K and then refusing to play him. He was a healthy scratch for over 40 games this year, which is important to consider because…

i) Anson Carter wanted to play for the Leafs this season, but the Leafs couldn't afford his salary demands of $1M. Carter has played in 70 games, notching 28 goals, 21 assists and a +3 rating. Belak (43 games, no goals, 3 assists, -14) and Czerkawski (27 games, 5 goals, 2 assists, -6) have a total salary of 1.22 million and have collectively played in 70 games combining for five goals, five assists and a combined rating of -20.

Ms. Tedesco concludes:

Leaf loyalists may have been given a taste of what lies ahead for the team at the NHL trade deadline two weeks ago. Fans and pundits urged Mr. Ferguson to make a drastic move, even speculating that captain Mats Sundin should be traded.
But Mr. Ferguson didn't budge, instead completing two minor deals.

I think the dreaded third-way lies ahead, call it Babcockian. It's not making a bold move like loading up for a playoff run or selling off any and all assets that won't be returning next year, it's standing-pat and hoping for the best.

Even the Islanders figured out the best option for this season.

Think of that - in his final act, Mike Milbury may have become a better GM than JFJ...


Link