First Leaf Goals of the Year: 1995-2010

Each new hockey season supposedly brings with it plenty of hope for the faithful. After the debacle that was the first 10 games of the 2009-10 Leaf season, I'll happily forego hope and settle for relief.

It was great to see the Leafs get their first win right out of the gate. I never would have guessed that Tim Brent would be the first Leaf to light the lamp. Here's a quick look at who scored the Leafs' first goal of the season since 1995:

Year	First Leaf Goal
1995-96	Zdenek Nedved
1996-97	Mike Craig
1997-98	Igor Korolev
1998-99	Sergei Berezin
1999-2000	Mats Sundin
2000-2001	Jonas Hoglund
2001-2002	Alexander Mogilny
2002-2003	Alexander Mogilny
2003-2004	Nik Antropov*
Lockout
2005-06	Bryan McCabe
2006-07	Mats Sundin
2007-08	Nik Antropov
2008-09	Pavel Kubina
2009-10	Alexi Ponikarovsky
2010-11	Tim Brent

*The Leafs were shut-out by the dreaded Montreal Canadiens in the 2003 season opener, Nik Antropov had the first Leaf goal of the season in game two against the Washington Captials.


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Five Questions (Cross-posted at PPP)

Every 7 to 10 days I post a "Five Questions" entry over at uber Leaf Blog Pension Plan Puppets. Here's the latest entry...

When I was in university I rented a ramshackle five bedroom house from a little old Chinese lady who insisted we call her Yee.

I have no idea if that was her first name or her last name. We made our cheques out to "cash."

Yee always said her name so loudly and cheerfully it should have had an exclamation mark appended to it.

She was a great landlord. Each month when she came to collect the rent cheques she’d bring the five of us gifts. Sometimes a giant bag of fortune cookies, other times some apples or maybe some sticky rice. It was always food and, as impovrished students, it was always welcome.

Occasionally we would awake to find the house full of Chinese girls scrubbing the kitchen and polishing our floors. We weren’t the cleanest fellows I guess, but Yee assured us that we were "nice boys" and better tenants than the previous ones who apparently put a motorcycle through the front window.

All that for $272 a month each (in 1993 dollars).

My housemates from those days are now living in various cities across Canada. For the past 10+ years, each spring we’ve picked a city somewhere in North America and agreed to meet up.

More importantly, each and every year we claim we’re going to have a contest to see how many McDonald’s burgers we can eat in an hour. No fries, no shakes, just a giant pile of burgers and 60 minutes of gluttony.

I have no idea where the idea for this challenge came from, but like all things involving a group of men there’s a huge amount of bragging, trash talking and general idiocy involved.

Unfortunately, each year this all important contest falls apart in the rules process (what can I say - three of my former roomies are lawyers). Someone won’t eat the pickles, and of course if they’re not going to eat the pickles then we all have to get our burgers without the pickles. Oh, and maybe the onions. No onions across the board. And what about cheeseburgers instead of regular burgers?

Bah.

I know we’re never going to answer the age old question of just how many burgers each of us can each consume in 60 minutes. I just hope that on my death bed I’m not left wondering if I could have emerged victorious or if I would have puked near the Playland.

I figure I could eat 12 burgers easy. Who couldn’t eat 12 of those tiny morsels?

I think 15 would be the start of a bad stretch.

At 17 I’d know I was in trouble.

At 18, I’d have consumed twice my recommended daily caloric intake, 144 grams of fat and 378% of my daily sodium requirement.

Each and every burger past the 20 mark would carry some sort of punishing retribution, a mark of Cain (or is it McCain’s?) to be borne until the grease was purged from my system.

All of this burger talk leads to the first of this week’s all important questions: It’s well known that Alexi Ponikarovski is the Leafs’ resident McDonald’s man. Pending UFA Centre and former Leaf almost-great Nik Antropov is all about the Boorger King (that’s Russian for Burger King). Given their love of burgers…

Question 1: Do you think the Leafs should pursue Antropov this off-season? And as an all-important follow-up: how many McDonald’s burgers do you think you could eat in an hour (with full toppings, none of this hold the pickles crap).

* * *

The bad news: former Leaf Gary Leeman won the Stanley Cup with the Montreal Canadiens in 1993. This may not mean much to those of you who weren’t around for Leeman’s stint with the Leafs back in the 1980s, but he was not the most popular guy in town and far from the most popular guy in the room. Let’s just say bad rumours and ill will abound.

The good news: Leeman didn’t play enough regular season or playoff games with the Habs to qualify to have his name inscribed on the ultimate sports trophy.

Question 2: If you could excise one name from the Stanley Cup - one name that would be erased from the history books, internet databases, and disappear from the surface of the cup itself - which name would go? Who would you remove?

* * *

He’s on his third coach in three years. His team has gone out in the first round of the playoffs every year since the lockout. He mismanaged the cap so badly his team couldn’t even dress a full roster, icing just 10 forwards against Minnesota.

He signed the so-called franchise goalie to $6M cap hit through 2013 along with a no-movement clause, only to see said goalie continue to put up ever worsening numbers since his Vezina win in 2006.

This is a guy that dealt for Adrian Aucoin, a d-man with two destroyed groins and a $4M cap hit.

The team is carrying $48M in salaries with at least five roster positions still to be filled.

Question 3: If Darryl Sutter did this while GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs, how many 24 hour specialty channels would be launched? How many dedicated news paper sections would be printed? How many column inches spent? Is there even a unit of measure that could capture the resulting media storm? How is this man still employed?

* * *

I just found out that when Pierre McGuire called Luke Schenn "the Human Eraser" he was copping the nickname from Marvin "The Human Eraser" Webster, a former NBA centre who clocked in at 7' 1" and was known for his shot-blocking abilities.

Other recent disappointments in the nickname game include "Schenner" – the handle appointed to Braydon Schenn (as I posted in the comments at PPP, at least it’s better than "Schenny").

Whatever happened to quality handles like Killer, Charlie Hustle, the Baby Faced Assassin, the Popcorn Kid, the China Wall, or Leo "Snake Hips" Boivin?

Question 4: Which Leaf has the best nickname, which has the worst? Who needs a new nickname and will Jiri "NSFW" Tlusty ever really take off?

* * *

I’m not much of a baseball fan. Once or twice a year I’ll watch a game on TV. I don’t really follow the standings nor do I have a favourite team. I hate the Sky Dome Rogers Centre with its cement sterility and the huge distance between the fans and the field.

I do like the sound of a game on the radio in the evening though. Once my kids are in bed, there's something to be said for sipping a beer or a Black Bush on the rocks while I sit on the back deck - the more silence and game sounds, the better.

Baseball may also have the greatest stories. Bull Durham is one fantastic movie (we jokingly call our boy Nuke and he even has his own Durham Bulls hat), Ball Four is one of my favourite books and Money Ball really should be required reading for sports fans.

One of my favourite sports stories comes from former Kansas City Royal George Brett.

When he was asked about his ideal last at bat, the last time he'd ever step up to the plate, Brett said, "I want to hit a routine grounder to second and run all out to first base, then get thrown out by a half step. I want to leave an example to the young guys that that's how you play the game, all out."

Could you get a better answer? Seriously.

Here’s a guy that may be the greatest all-time third basemen in the history of the sport, an automatic hall of famer who put up huge numbers throughout his career and he wants to go down hustling out a routine play to first.*

Question 5: Ideally, what would your last shift as a professional athlete be?

* * *

*For the record, Brett’s final at bat came against the Texas Rangers. Brett was on a hitless streak and, in a scene right out of Bull Durham, the Rangers’ catcher Ivan Rodriguez told Brett the pitcher, former Jay Tom Henke, would be throwing nothing but fastballs. Four pitches later, Brett singled up the middle. Gary Gaetti later hit a home run and Brett's final act on a major league diamond was to touch home plate.

Fifteen steps, then a sheer drop

The NHL trade deadline is exactly eight weeks away and the Leafs have finally made their first move under Burke.

Gak. It's a 6th rounder for Brad May.

I do belive I called this one back on November 12 although I was only aiming for a cheap and easy punchline. The odds of a sixth rounder turning into a NHLer are pretty small, although it's likely about the same odds that May will do anything of note for the Leafs before he hits UFA status in June.

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that this move will generate more speculation into Brian Burke's intentions and efforts than the Kennedy assasination (Conspiracy A Go-Go really is the ultimate source on all things JFK) and the future of the North American auto industry combined.

With that in mind, I wanted to post two things today.

The first is the limited information I could find regarding no-trade (NTC) and no-movement clauses (NMC) on the Leafs that Burke will have to deal with.

The second was cap formulas to get a better understanding of how a trade might go down.

NTCs and NMCs

I've been hoping one of the 173 people that cover the Leafs full-time as a paid gig might look into this, maybe call the team, the agents for Hagman, Kaberle and Kubina or send an email to the NHLPA, I know I'm talking crazy, but one can hope...

This is what I was able to turn up from NHLSCAP, old radio interviews with JFJ and searches through the Globe and Star. Only three players on the Leafs appear to have trade limitations:

Niklas Hagman - has a N0-Movement Clause for the first year of his contract with the Leafs. The clause expires after year one.

Tomas Kaberle - has a No-Trade Clause. It's believed that if (let's face it: when) the Leafs miss the playoffs, there is a window in the summer during which Kaberle can be traded without his consent. If it's the same time period as identified in Kubina's contract, the trade window is July 1 to August 15. Sadly, that's 10 days after the entry draft.

Pavel Kubina - has a modified No-Trade Clause. According to various sources, he can only be traded to a list of pre-specified teams (no word on who submits the list or the number of teams it includes/excludes). Last year, there was a window between between July 1 and August 15 where we could have been traded without his consent, it's not clear if that was a one-time window or if it opens every summer if the Leafs don't make the playoffs.

I could find no other references to any of the other Leafs having NMCs or NTCs.

Cap Space, Cap Hits and Further Evidence That Math is Hard

The second challenge facing Burke as he tries to transform the Leafs is the lack of trading partners with cap space.

With nearly a third of the league hard against the cap and another third up against self-imposed budget limits, the Leafs are likely going to have to take on near dollar-for-dollar salary commitments in order to complete a trade. (Not to make things un-necessarilyl complicated but the NHL salary cap is actually calculated on a daily basis. Team's cannot exceed a per day salary limit of $296,858.64. Nik Antropov, for example, would cost a team $10,732.98 per day in cap space.)

In short: Leafs Nation can dream of picks and prospects, but the reality is most trades are likely going to bring back some ugly contracts.

What's with the post title? Click here.

Maple Leafs: Time to Face the Music

This morning at breakfast the iPod wasn't charged and I was too slow getting to the radio so I got stuck listening to some really bad music.

As Drive My Soul played in the background (gack!) it struck me that if the Toronto Maple Leafs really want to change their culture, if they really want a fresh start in 2008-'09, a public execution of the MLSE employee in charge of the in-game music programming at the ACC is as good a first step as any. (And how perfect would it be if it turned out Peddie or Tannenbaum was the one that picked Enter Sandman for the Leafs to skate out to?)

Is there anyone out there who thinks the Leafs need to play three Metallica songs each and every night? Does anyone at the game think Marilyn Manson, Bay City Rollers and Wolfmother=hockey? And does Zombie Nation's Kernkraft 400 really say "Toronto Maple Leafs score!" or does it just say: "I could be at any sporting event at any arena in North America."

As an aside, if Stephen Harper really wants a majority government I think the perfect way to harvest support in vote-rich Ontario is to formally ban The Final Countdown (with a full exemption for magicians) and then move on to Cotton Eyed Joe.

Maybe the Leafs need to take a page out of the Jays' playbook (as long as it's not the "missing the playoffs for 15 years" one) and have each Leaf pick their equivalent of the Jays at-bat music. When that Leaf scores, the ACC would play his tune.

The good: seeing the reaction to a Boyd Devereuax goal when one of the artists on his record label get some prime time play down at the ACC.

The bad: about six to eight times a year, we'd see Jason Blake first pump to something like Slowride by Foghat and odds are one of Poni, Grabovski or Antropov would pick Dragostea Din Tei (aka the Numa Numa dance) for their song...(You just know Stajan would pick some emo number and if Steen went with Abba, I'd trade him).

As someone who hasn't bought a new release since M. Ward's Post-War in 2006, I may not be ideally positioned to suggest an alternate play list for Maple Leaf games at the ACC, but anything (anything!) has to be better than the gratuitous use of Nickel Back, Def Leppard, and Linkin Park...

You're the one for me fatty

I really hope someone in the media calls Jim Schonfield this morning. I would love to get his take on everyone's favourite corpulent porcine beignet consuming official.

Antro gets three games for his post-game actions (I've always been a big fan of the sarcastic post-game clap for bad refs, well played Nick).

Antropov is quickly becoming my second favourite Leaf (and no, I'm not kidding).

Given all of the controversial calls last night, wouldn't it make a nice change if the NHL followed the NFL's Director of Officiating's lead and was actually open and transparent about officiating decisions? Or maybe even an actual response from the "war room" in Toronto explaining why some goals stand and others don't. Imagine that.

Thanks to the work of last nights "officiating" crew, I thought I'd trot out these golden links:

• An economist confirms referee bias
• Pro Sports League's Commitment to Reducing Officiating Errors (MLB, NFL, NBA only)
• Penalty Probabilities in the NHL

Team Softness = Injuries?

At the conclusion of last year's season, JFJ and MLSE threw around the meme that the Leafs "lost the most man games in the NHL due to injury" like JFJ threw around no-movement and no trade clauses.

At the time, I had a big problem with that that statement as:

1. I hate excuses (I think what-ifs and excuses were the cornerstones of the JFJ era)
2. If you look at the bulk of last year's injuries, they were to fringe players (Wozniewski was 17% of the total; 4th liners and Marlies were another 22%)
3. Good teams find ways to win, even when their big guys are hurting

What I didn't stop to consider was why the Leafs were so banged up.

After getting physically manhandled by Washington two nights in a row, the Leafs are once again threatening to run away with the injury title. It struck me that maybe the Leafs suffer so many injuries because they're a soft team.

Last year it was a sea of white shirts staring at their skate laces after Janssen laid out Kaberle.

The last two nights nobody laid a finger on Erskine and Eminger and the questionable hits (and one lovely end of game spear) kept on coming. Poni and Steen are both out as a result and White and Antropov were lucky to avoid the IR...

I'm far too lazy to crunch the numbers, but it would be interesting to see how many of the man games lost over the past 100+ games were the result of other teams playing big while the Leafs played small...

The Missing Years

Like pucks lazily drifting past Andrew Raycroft, the reasons for JFJ to be fired are almost too many to count.

The surprise isn't that JFJ’s teams will set a Leaf record for futility by missing the playoffs for three straight years.

The surprise isn’t that a team tagged by its coach as his most talented ever and positioned for a Stanley Cup run is mired in 27^th and on the cusp of a lottery pick.

The surprise isn’t that JFJ took a 100 point franchise and turned it into a soft, underperforming team, handcuffed it with long-term contracts, maxed out the cap and then stripped of its few assets for spare parts.

The surprise is that despite of all this, JFJ lasted as long as he did.

The man was the GM of my favourite team for five years. For half a decade, I watched him run a franchise I’ve followed all of my life and I still don’t have a clue what he was trying to do.

He arrived heralding the stockpiling of picks, but in five years, he traded the teams’ top pick three times and the second pick twice.

He spoke about a new era in developing talent, yet his top pick is playing four minutes a night in the NHL instead of getting big minutes in the minors.

I know that he liked to roll the dice. JFJ habitually sought to acquire high-risk high-reward players like Lindros, Allison, Raycroft, and O’Neill. And in every single case, the risk won. Under JFJ there was never a reward in Leaf land.

For every good contract he signed – Kaberle, Antropov, Poni, Sundin – he signed a bad one: Belfour, Domi, Blake, Kubina, McCabe, Tucker.

People claim his true talent was an eye for waiver wire pick-ups, landing Devereaux, Kilger and Moore. But for every fourth line surprise, there was a fourth line bust: Czerkawski, Pohl, Battaglia, Newbury, Suglabov.

Want to measure his supposed ability to assess talent? Count the number of JFJ acquisitions who can no longer find work in the NHL: Allison, Battaglia, Belfour, Berg, Czerkawski, Green, Khavanov, Lindros, O’Neill, and Slugablov.

I dare anyone to find a comparable list of post-lockout busts signed by a single GM.

In the end, he may be a great guy, a wonderful father and husband. He may have been classy when he knew his time had come, but he set the team I love back years. His incompetence or inability to stand up to the board (or some deadly combination of both) has handcuffed this club for years to come. And for that, I am glad that he’s gone.

He left with the media remarking on his class and his ability to keep his head up. His image ironically buffed by the same mouth breathers and one-fingered typists who called for his head and spent the last month in a daily vigil outside the MLSE boardroom door waiting for the blue and white smoke signaling a new Pope Leafs GM.

JFJ often said he was a reflection of his record, and that’s likely the only spot that he and I will ever agree. If ever there was a truly .500 GM – a man that won as often as he lost – JFJ is it.

Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash

There's a slew of interesting, complimentary stories that have run in the Star the past few days on the state of the MLSE's profits (in a word: massive); their approach to scouting (in two words: horrifically cheap) and the wallets of the fan base (in three words: open for business)

In another must read, Ninja at Raking Leafs has pretty much covered off the key points and said everything that I was thinking.

Finding out that MLSE has a lifestyle that combines the best of Montgomery Burns and Ranier Wolfcastle is about as surprising as finding out another b-list celebrity "forgot" to wear gitch whilst getting out of her car.

That said, it's very disheartening that even a tiny slice of those profits aren't being redirected off-ice to make the Leafs better. The one advantage the Leafs still possess in a cap environment is the ability to outspend their rivals in off-ice activities such as scouting and player development. As a fan, I always hoped this was so - that this team was doing everything possible and was seeking out every competitive advantage to win. I suppose had I stepped back and looked at this club's history of drafting and developing players or had anyone (hello media?) just asked a few tough questions I would have known better...

In on-ice news, the Leafs beat the Rags 4-1 and Antropov just continues to pile on the points.

After this two-game trip, I'm looking for creative ways to keep the Leafs from playing the ACC again this season...

Gonna Get Your Mind Right

Cool Hand Luke is one of my all time favourite movies. In fact, I wear #37 on my hockey jersey as it's Paul Newman's number in the chain gang.

That movie has taught me a lot of life lessons: while it may be possible for a man to eat 50 hardboiled eggs, you're better off if you're not that guy; one of the most important things to know is your own mind; the Flaming Lips can pretty much cover any song and it will be cool; it's not a good idea to box with a guy the size of George Kennedy and, most importantly, you can pretty much break any person's spirit by making them repeatedly dig and then re-fill a grave-sized hole in the hot southern sun, especially when their only reprieve is a night spent in "the box" (a closet sized, outdoor, solitary confinement unit).

I bring this up because I think the whole night in the box and repetitive hole digging will be my new answer to the question, "What the $%@!# can be done with the Leafs?"

Seriously.

Consider...

The next time Kubina chases his man on the PK up to the blue line, he'll spend a night in the box.

The next time Hal Gill thinks it's a good idea to lead the rush, it's a night in the box.

Raycroft even thinks about going down early - that's right - it's a night in the box.

In addition to helping my beloved Blue and White "get their mind right" (as the Captain in Cool Hand Luke so wonderfully puts it) repeatedly digging and re-filling a hole would make for great post-game visuals.

Need to know who's in the doghouse? Just look for the guy with a haunted look heading out to the ACC parking lot holding a shovel.

Think the Sens look goofy doing post-games on stationary bikes? Wait until you see the Woz, night after night, waist deep in the ground, surrounded by soil down on Bremner Boulevard.

So what if the players and their union don't like it - the NHLPA is such a mess that now is the time to strike...a few weeks of hole digging and sleeping outside and this team will be playing at least .510 hockey.

=+=+=+=+=+=

On Atlanta's fourth goal it was so nice to see Hal Gill try to lead the rush. Not sure what part of keeping the game simple and concentrating on defence-first that falls under, but those big juicy brains down at MLSE sure have some interesting ideas. Now that's some coachin'

It was also heartwarming that Jason Blake watched the play and then turned away from his check on that goal. Sometimes players take a while to fit in with their new organization, to change cultures and to really show that they are part of their new team. But that piece of lazy backchecking coupled with a missed assignment is all I need to see to know that Jason is now officially and firmly a part of the Blue and White. Welcome Jason!

On the good news front - is Antropov the biggest surprise of this NHL season? I got him late in my pool for just $0.30 and it's making me look like a genius.

Nice Shot Antro: Games Updated through Feb. 14

UPDATED WITH GAMES THROUGH FEB 14:

When you outshoot a team nearly 3:1, it's hard to lay blame on the losing team. That said, if anyone knows what Antropov was thinking in the shoot-out, I'd love to know. Who the hell goes five hole from the other side of the hash marks?

Here's how the crazy east looks with another one day after another ACC home ice loss in the books:

Winning Percentage: Projections for the Post-Season

Team	Win %	GR	Record to 92 Pts	Record to 95 Pts
1. BUFFALO	0.702	25	6-19-0	7-18-1
2. NEW JERSEY	0.667	25	8-17-0	9-15-1
3. PITTSBURGH	0.616	26	11-14-1	13-13-0
4. OTTAWA	0.595	24	11-12-1	13-11-1
5. ATLANTA	0.585	23	11-11-1	13-10-0
6. TAMPA BAY	0.569	24	13-11-0	14-9-1
7. CAROLINA	0.551	23	13-9-1	15-8-0
8. TORONTO	0.544	25	15-10-0	16-8-1
8. NY ISLANDERS	0.544	25	15-10-0	16-8-1
-----------	--	-	-------	------
9. MONTREAL	0.542	23	14-9-0	15-7-1
11. NY RANGERS	0.527	26	16-9-1	18-8-0
12. BOSTON	0.509	27	18-9-0	19-7-1
13. WASHINGTON	0.474	25	19-6	20-4-1
14. FLORIDA	0.466	23	18-4-1	20-3-0

Teams are sorted by winning percentage, not points. Teams have not been re-seeded by division standings. Philadelphia cannot make 92 or 95 points.

Math was done by hand (while coding with Blogger's awkward interface) so please let me know if there are any errors.

In the Reds

I don't normally do the game notes/blog thing but I got a call around 5PM tonight from a friend asking if I was interested in going to the Leaf game, like he had to ask.

Here are some notes from the ACC:

When Andy Frost announced the game’s scratches, Antropov’s name got a big cheer.

The music selection at the ACC is worse than you might think. I don’t know that Cotton Eyed Joe made an appearance, but the majority of the music played was recorded before the births of Steen, Stajan and Ponikarovsky. I didn’t know that people still listened to Quiet Riot…I bet the guy next to me we’d hear Twisted Sister before the night was over. I lost. But it seemed like a safe bet at the time.

Both teams came out sluggish. The Leafs didn’t get their first shot on goal until the 13th minute mark and that was off a dump in.

Ponikarovsky’s goal was a thing of beauty. Too bad he couldn’t repeat in the shoot-out.

The Leafs looked absolutely dreadful in the second period. They were totally contained for whole shifts at a time, unable to contain the Rangers low-cycle and unable to clear the zone. The Rangers very successfully dumped the puck into the Leafs right corner and then flooded the right wing wall. The Leafs coughed up the puck time after time after time. It was ugly.

Raycroft did not look sharp. Pucks were bouncing off him like superballs dropped from the top of the CN Tower. He was fighting the puck all night and if it weren’t for a few lucky bounces the Rangers could have buried the Leafs in the second, especially as Raycroft struggled to contain the puck and limit second chances.

Stajan can dangle. Made a great move up the middle in the 3rd. Who knew?

Maurice did his best to pair Belak with Kaberle, but the Rangers did a great job of isolating Belak and working the puck into his corner whenever big #3 took to the ice.

Brendan Bell did not look out of place - had a really nice solo rush in the third that he nearly converted.

The Leafs seemed reticent to shoot the puck tonight and were guilty of over-passing on a few occasions. I’m amazed they managed 38 shots on Lundqvist. It’s either a friendly finger keeping count or the Leafs should have had 50.

PruchaTyutin crushed Tucker. Tucker crushed Jagr. Nice stuff.

Whenever Raycroft left the crease to play the puck, a woman in my section would make a noise like she was going into labour (either that or she secretly using the call of the dying giraffe). Thank you miss, whoever you are, for giving voice to the anxiety that I thought was mine alone.

Marcel Hossa really low-bridged Poniarovsky with a very dangerous looking hit in the neutral zone. If Quinn was still coach (or if Lindy Ruff were behind the bench) this would be the lead news item until at least Tuesday.

The Leafs looked better as the game went on, dominating most of the third. With the exception of one shift in OT, the Rangers looked as though they were just waiting for the shoot-out.

The guy sitting behind me very loudly predicted what each player would do as they came in on the shoot-out. He fared a little worse than the leafs going 0 for six on his predictions. My favourite: his call that Shanahan would go “High cheese over the glove” on Raycroft. High cheese indeed.

I’ve never enjoyed the shoot-out on TV and I hate to admit it was a pretty thrilling thing to see live. That said, I still think it’s a lousy way to decide a game.

Buy Outs All Around!

Joe O'Connor filed a story in Today's National Post (14/06/06 - Registration required) suggesting the Leafs may be have more players lined-up for buy-outs. The story, Maurice says Leafs must play to contend (who writes these headlines? What's next, Leafs must wear skates to play) ends with this thought:

But while Maurice may have been tight-lipped about what, exactly, the Leafs roster is going to look like next season, he preached the gospel truth in describing what style he wants his team to adopt for 2006-07.

"We are going to play the game that we believe you have to play to win the Stanley Cup," he said. "It's the game that you are seeing now: It's a two-man forecheck ... it's a two-man neutral zone. It's all transition and speed."

It is everything the Leafs, on most nights, were not in 2005-06.

The lumbering Leafs featured a lead-footed Jason Allison, a disinterested Jeff O'Neill and an injury-prone Nik Antropov at forward, while the defence corps boasted a trio of tortoises in Aki Berg, Wade Belak and, before he was traded to New Jersey, Ken Klee.

Belak and O'Neill are among the 12 Toronto players currently under contract for next year. Mats Sundin, Tomas Kaberle, Darcy Tucker, Domi, Chad Kilger, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Mikael Tellqvist, J.S. Aubin, Alexander Steen and Staffan Kronwall are the others. O'Neill, who butted heads with Maurice in Carolina, is rumoured to be headed for a buyout, along with Domi. [emphasis added].

Mark Zwolinski of the Star covered the same event but he only mentions Belfour and Domi as buy-out candidates - no mention of O'Neill.

In an interesting wrinkle, Zwolinski claims the Domi buyout cannot be reduced by a third or split over two seasons, as per my earlier reading of the CBA.

Reports have floated for over two weeks now that the Leafs will buy out the last year of Domi's contract, an option that will cost them $1.25 million (all figures U.S.).

Under the new collective bargaining agreement, the total sum would go against the salary cap for 2006-07, since Domi signed his current deal after he was 35 years of age.

Not to be outdone, the Sun got in on the projected buy-out action too with an article by Bill Lankhof that is so goofy I didn't even want to link to it. It's like Lankhof needed an additional 85 words for his column and assembled a blurb, ransom-note style, from previous Leaf headlines. One thing I'll give him credit for is the blurb's closing line. It really should be the new end piece or "-30-" for every sports column in the Sun. Seriously.)

So where does that leave the Leafs and the buyouts? Will they be throwing around buy-out money like Charles Barkley introduces bar patrons to windows or will Domi be back with the Blue and White?

Personally, I can't see JFJ buying out anyone beyond Belfour and I'd give even odds on Domi. He's a GM in desperate need of good news and quick wins. When you consider the McCabe contract negotiations are proceeding about as smoothly as most middle-east peace plans; the Owen Nolan decision is likely to be announced right at the deadline for buy-outs; and the over-riding fact that JFJ is the guy who tendered and signed off on all of these potential buy-outs in the first place, each "correction" he makes just puts another bullet in the gun to his head.

We'll know soon enough. Buy-outs can be tendered from June 15 or 48 hours after the final game of the Stanley Cup final to the end of June.


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Tedesco, Ferguson and me...

The front page of today's (25/03/06) National Post is dominated by a story from Theresa Tedesco on the sad state of my beloved Toronto Maple Leafs.

Up front, I want to make clear that I'm a big fan of Tedesco's book detailing the take-over of the Leafs from a publicly traded company to the behemoth that is MLSE, but after reading her story today, I have to say she might be better off in the FP and away from the sports pages.

The article is on the mark when it sticks to ownership and business decisions, it's when she speaks to the sporting side it makes about as much sense as some of Quinn's recent coaching decisions.

It should also be noted that this piece is clearly an effort at damage control by friends of Mr. Ferguson.

Let's have a look...

TORONTO - Amid the public wrenching over whether the Toronto Maple Leafs will qualify for the NHL playoffs, the owners of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment Ltd. say they have been privately watching events unfold pretty much according to plan.

And although no one at MLSE will admit it publicly, the Leafs' post-season prospects for the next couple of seasons are not expected to be any more promising.

Ok so far, I pretty much couldn't agree with her more. Most experts said last September that this club would be life and death to make the playoffs. They're currently losing 3-1 to the Habs (make that a 6-2 loss), in the latest of many "must-win" games.

Paragraph 3 is where Ms. Tedesco starts to sound like she's dipped into the Captain Morgan with Harry and Bob.

That unspoken prognosis is largely the consequence of a youth movement advocated by Leafs general manager John Ferguson Jr. in a blueprint he presented two years ago to MLSE's owners -- a strategy that, sources say, will likely result in the firing of head coach Pat Quinn at the end of this season, as well as the departure of fan favourite Tie Domi and a handful of other underperforming veterans.

There are several problems with this paragraph, if JFJ's advocating or planning a yourth movement:

Why didn't he buy out more of the team in the off-season? Sundin, Belfour and McCabe account for about 35% of the team's salary.

Why did JFJ sign so many older players, many of whom (Domi, Berg, etc.) were inked to multi-year deals?

Why didn't he move all of the team's unrestricted free agents at the trade deadline for picks and prospects?

Tedesco continues, with a greater focus on JFJ's business decisions - moving the St.Johns team to Toronto, consolidating training, medical staff and practice facilites and increasing scouting staff. But when she gets back to the team that JFJ "inherieted" she's back on some thin ice.

Making matters worse, Mr. Ferguson also inherited a team that had traded away its top draft choices seven times in the past 10 years.

JFJ traded a first and second round pick and prospects for Brian Leetch. Leetch went on to play 15 games for the Leafs.

However, the 310-day NHL lockout quickly tested the company's resolve and the general manager's ability to walk the talk. Three months before the lockout began in September, 2004, Mr. Ferguson re-signed Mr. Belfour, a 40-year-old Vezina Trophy winner and all-star goalie, to a two-year contract plus an option for a third year -- totalling US$17-million -- despite his advancing age.

JFJ should be fired for this contract alone.

In the summer of 2004, Ed Belfour was 39 years old with chronic back injuries. There is wide-spread talk of salary caps, long-term work stoppages and general uncertainty.

JFJ sweeps into action, signing Belfour to a three year contract worth $15.5 million (2 years at $7million, an option at $1.5m) that includes a no-trade clause.

Think about this for a minute.

There's no hockey on the horizon for a minimum of six months, and more likely a year. Your goalie is 39 years old and requires invasive back surgery. He hasn't made it out of the second round of the playoffs in years. He looked quite average in the series against the Flyers and he didn't steal a single game in the playoffs.

For this, he gets a multi-year deal with a bonus and a no trade clause.

Who in their right mind would tender this contract?

I get the feeling I put more thought into managing my rotisserie team than this guy does running the Leafs.

Oh, and let's not forget Ms. Tedesco's article and the master plan for a youth movement (anchored by a 40 year old goalie with a bad back). Ms. Tedesco continues:

The following year, in June, 2005, MLSE's board reviewed the progress of Mr. Ferguson's strategic plan as the lockout appeared to be coming to an end. This time, the general manager had to address the fate of a handful of players in the twilight years of their careers who were set to become unrestricted free agents.

I would have added three words to that last sentence, "by doing nothing."

The Leafs, like all teams, had the opportunity to buy-out any existing contracts. Detroit moved on Hatcher, Whitney, Joseph and McCarty; the Rangers parted ways with Holik; the Flyers with Amonte, LeClair; etc.

About 40% of the Leafs' payroll is held by three players: Sundin ($6.3M/year); Belfour ($5.6M/year) and McCabe ($3.5M/Year). Biggest flock of free agents in the history of the NHL and the Leafs did nothing. This inaction left the club with $24 M to sign 19 players.

Under pressure to make a move, Mr. Ferguson extended Mr. Quinn's coaching contract for an undisclosed amount.

He followed up with a series of deals that gave little outward indication that MLSE was planning an overhaul of its most prized asset.

For example, shortly after the NHL governors and the NHL Players' Association agreed to end the lockout in July, 2005, which included a US$39-million salary cap, he allowed Messrs. Roberts and Nieuwendyk to bolt to the Florida Panthers and cut ties with winger Robert Reichel. He replaced those veterans with three others -- Eric Lindros and Jason Allison, both signed as free agents, and Jeff O'Neill, whom the Leafs secured by giving up a conditional draft pick.

Remember, this is part of the master-plan to build with youth from within.

Let's look at the rest of JFJ's post-labour stoppage decisions (no snickering please):

a) acquiring Jeff O'Neill who's clearly out of shape, who didn't play during the lockout, and who's goal scoring prowess has been going down like a coked-up Paris Hilton in a room full of camcorders. After one 30 goal season (likely a contract year) he went on to score 14 goals in 2003-2004. Guess what? He's potted 16 goals for the Leafs this season and is on target for 18.

b) Signing Eric Lindros - a guy that has averaged about 50 games a season for the last five years. Guess what? Lindros played 33 games for the Leafs before going out for the year.

c) signing Jason Alison to an incentive laden contract that's going to cost the club $4.5M (yup, $4.5M). Has any player since Craig Janney put a softer 50+ points on the board than Alison? 30 of his points have to be second assists. His plus minus is horrific, and many of his mistakes are of the terminal variety (it was his giveaway that led to game winners from Healty and Grier). In a game dominated by speed you need a calendar to time this guy; I'm surprised a crazed leaf fan hasn't climbed the glass, jumped in the zamboni and drove over him. Lord knows Alison couldn't outskate it, even if it had three flat tires…

d) signing Tie Domi to a 2 year, $2.5M deal. Domi has one goal in his last 49 games. When Ondrus got run from behind in Pittsburgh, Domi did nothing. When he was benched, he whined. When there were trade rumours, he threatend to retire. This is leadership? This is character?

e) talking Antropov out of playing in Russia and qualify him for 2 years at $1.1M; Antropov has only once played more than 65 games in a season and has averaged 24 points a season. Furthermore, in 28 playoff games, he has 5 points. Guess what? Antropov is on target to play 58 games this year and score 25 points – just like has his whole career. Good thing JFJ locked him up for one more season, wouldn't want a player like that to get away.

f) signing Aki Berg for $1.1M - think about that for a second - a fifth or sixth string defenceman for nearly triple the league minimum salary. Carolina picked up Mike Commodore for a third round pick, he makes $500K; Buffalo picked up Lydman for a 3rd round pick, he makes $700K. We resigned a pylon and gave him a raise.

g) Paying Wade Belak $720,000 - that's $270K above the league minimum and about $719,000 more than he's worth.

h) Landing Marius Czerkawski for $500K and then refusing to play him. He was a healthy scratch for over 40 games this year, which is important to consider because…

i) Anson Carter wanted to play for the Leafs this season, but the Leafs couldn't afford his salary demands of $1M. Carter has played in 70 games, notching 28 goals, 21 assists and a +3 rating. Belak (43 games, no goals, 3 assists, -14) and Czerkawski (27 games, 5 goals, 2 assists, -6) have a total salary of 1.22 million and have collectively played in 70 games combining for five goals, five assists and a combined rating of -20.

Ms. Tedesco concludes:

Leaf loyalists may have been given a taste of what lies ahead for the team at the NHL trade deadline two weeks ago. Fans and pundits urged Mr. Ferguson to make a drastic move, even speculating that captain Mats Sundin should be traded.
But Mr. Ferguson didn't budge, instead completing two minor deals.

I think the dreaded third-way lies ahead, call it Babcockian. It's not making a bold move like loading up for a playoff run or selling off any and all assets that won't be returning next year, it's standing-pat and hoping for the best.

Even the Islanders figured out the best option for this season.

Think of that - in his final act, Mike Milbury may have become a better GM than JFJ...


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