5 Things I Learned this Leaf Season

I’m not going to offer a formal season in review.

If you’re a fan of the Leafs you’ve certainly suffered enough and you already know how this season played out.

I’m also not going to offer a prescription as to how the Leafs might turn things around next year. Yes, trades will be made, but no one predicted Kubina for Exelby, the Phaneuf or the Gigeure deal and odds are no one will get the next one remotely right either. It used to be the hallways of the ACC had more holes than Vesa Toskala, but the arrival of Brian Burke has certainly changed that. This new code of silence means the next round of deals will likely go down without any warning – just a wave of info rolling across twitter, blogs and emails with the details.

As for UFA season, good luck figuring that one out. You can post and posit all you want, but the fact remains the UFA talent pool is thin and the league-wide needs are great. That's a bad combination, which will likely result in numerous contracts that many GMs will strain to bury or trade away by 2012.

UFAs are an excellent way to spackle over smaller roster holes or to give a competitive team that much needed final push but the inefficiency of most UFA contracts (ratio of price to performance) makes it a risky way to build a club in a salary capped system.

So what does that leave Leaf fans with? There are still the usual exit interviews where fans can find out that their favourites played hurt all year. Sadly, that's about it.

So, as the Leafs clear out their lockers, I thought I’d offer up five things I’ve learned from yet another losing season in Toronto:

5. For all the talk of Brian Burke learning from and not repeating the Dan Cloutier experience, don’t believe it.

He gave Vesa Toskala a lot of rope – too much rope – and unfortunately, it only turned into the proverbial noose for the Leafs playoff hopes, not for he of the man purse.

Burke told the Toronto Star he got his first Vesa scare in the last pre-season game when the Sabres torched Toskala for seven or eight goals. There were plenty of UFA goaltending options out there the Leafs could have turned to. Toskala’s record low save percentage should have made this a no brainer. Instead, the Leafs watched their season go down in flames and the goaltending situation was not solidified until January 31, nearly five months later.

4. Don’t build a PP around Kessel

Among forwards that played 20+ NHL games and who were given at least 1 minute of PP time, Phil Kessel had atrocious numbers.

Goals scored/60 5 on 4 158th out of 233 NHL forwards.
Primary Assists/60 5 on 4, 59th
Secondary Assists/60 5 on 4 145th
Points/60 5 on 4, 156th.

His numbers were almost as bad in Boston.

Worse news, Kessel is the best option available for the Leafs. With #81 on the ice, the PP clicked at 4.94 GF/60, without him it clicked at 2.79GF/60.

The Leafs desperately need to fix their PP and I don’t think Kessel is the answer.

3. I thought the arrival of Brian Burke might mean the fans would get a break from all the talking heads that are paid to bloviate about the Leafs. Turns out I was wrong.

Leaf fans continued to be blamed for the woeful state of the franchise. Fans were assigned more blame in the Toronto Sun’s series on the Leafs’ losing streak than Harold Ballard.

Think about that one for a minute.

So long as ownership is a nebulous, largely nameless, faceless board and so long as this team struggles on the ice, Leaf fans will continue to be an easy target media in need of an easy place to pin the blame. It's not true, it's lazy, but it's far too ingrained to expect a change any time soon.

2. The #2 man in Toronto may be the most important job with the Leafs.

It was Bob Murray in Anaheim who insisted little known Francois Beauchemin be included in the Fedorov deal. Dave Nonis had the penultimate say on the Phaneuf trade, was the guy that handled the Leafs UFA negotiations last July and apparently put together the Giguere for Toskala and Blake deal (never mind being the guy that pulled off the Bertruzzi for Luongo deal and matching that RFA offer sheet for Kesler).

Nonis has a clause in his contract that allows him to seek a GM job this off-season. The next in line with the Leafs is Dave Poulin, not sure if he’s the guy I want offering sober second thought to Burke.

And, no offence to Burke, but I think he's a guy that thrives with a rational counterbalance like Nonis.

1. An expedited re-build in Toronto looks like it means sacrificing draft picks and development time.

In 2008, Luke Schenn was chosen ahead of likely rookie-of-the-year Tyler Myers because he was deemed “NHL ready.”

In 2009, The Leafs dealt two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd round pick for Phil Kessel.

This week, Ron Wilson announced that the Leafs plan to have Nazem Kadri, their first round pick in 2009 and the organization’s last first round pick until 2012, start with the big club in 2011. No development time, no chance to learn the professional game with the Marlies.

Seems to me the message to Kadri shouldn't be bet on starting next season. Rather it should be: "If you want to start in the NHL, you have to earn it."

Leafs Have Limited Options

Brian Burke has been preaching accountability and threatening to waive and trade players for nearly three months now.

To date, his threats have been emptier than the lower bowl at a Coyotes game and bring to mind a parent counting out-loud to a misbehaving toddler (although in fairnes, most kids usually respond by the time a parent gets to three).

Let's face it, Burke really doesn't have much in the way of options.

There's no cap space to take on new contracts or provide wiggle room in a trade.

There's no more prospects or picks left to be dealt.

As I understand it, the window for buy-outs doesn't open until the off-season.

The only option that remains is waiving a few players to the minors, but even that has a potential long-term cost.

Balancing Short-Term Issues with Long-Term Needs

In the short-term, there's no argument that this team needs a shake-up. But every player waived represents a potential lost draft pick at the trade deadline - something this club desperately needs to replenish. For the long-term good of the club, are the Leafs better off just riding out a 50 point season and cashing in all their spare parts in February?

This franchise is so bereft of talent, both in the bigs and throughout their system, that one has to wonder if it's almost worth it to keep Mayers and Primeau in the press box for the potential 5th or 6th round picks they might bring next February.(Rickard Wallin is the other prime candidate for demotion, but I have a feeling his presence on the roster is tied up with Jonas Gustavsson and right now that kid needs all the support he can get).

The other candidate for demotion to the Marlies, and the only waiver exempt player on the roster, is Luke Schenn. Unfortunately, his demotion means more ice time for Garnet Exelby. As a pending UFA, and to date large-ish bust on the Leafs blue line, I think limiting Exelby's ice-time is in the best short-term and long-term interest of this club.

Who Comes Up?

The next question is, if Burke finally makes a move, who comes up?

Neither Stalberg nor Tlusty have impressed during their short time with the Leafs. Bozak has struggled with illness and has yet to find his game with the Marlies. That leaves Christian Hanson as the likely candidate. He has impressive stats to date: 15GP 5-8-13.

My guess is it will be more dallying around the edges from Burke. He can't waive more significant roster players that might net much needed picks at the trade deadline, nor can he create an atmosphere that appears to be or is perceived by UFAs as antagonistic.

In the end, I fear it's all small beer anyways.

Does anyone really thinks demoting Mayers (8 GP) or Primeau (13GP) is suddenly going to make Blake aim before he shoots, fix a moribund PK, or help one of the goalies find their game?

It took a Tattooed Boy from Birkenhead

There was a time (roughly 1979 to 2008ish) when the only thing more porous than the Leafs' defence was the Leafs' front office.

Every move the Leafs made: management changes, upping concession prices, free agent signings, internecine board squabbles, waiver moves, logo changes, likely even mascot issues, appeared in the media at least five days prior to being officially confirmed by MLSE.

Now, sometimes an organization needs to float a trial balloon or two to soften the news before it hits (the McCabe - Van Ryn trade is a case in point). But the Leafs went way beyond trial balloons. For decades this organization was like a fingerless Dutch boy, unable to stop even the smallest leak.

How times have changed.

Joe Nieuwendyk started interviewing with the Dallas Stars three weeks ago. The news didn't break until Dallas announced he'd been hired.

This week the Leafs signed three prospects. Again, the news didn't break until the Leafs put out a press release.

Burke is actively trying to move up in the draft. The only rumours that have emerged to date (Kaberle and Schenn for the #2 pick) were addressed personally by Burke within hours of the news being reported. Fold in his recent appearance on the Watters show and you've got a GM who's shooting down the media as if they were Sonny Corleone in a toll booth.

I'm not a trade rumours kind of guy, so I love this new organizational silence. Others may differ.

In 30+ years of following this club, I can't recall a time when news from Leaf-land broke after the fact or was so controlled (although I likely wasn't paying that close attention to media trends as a six year old when Roger Neilson was behind the bench).

Perhaps it's just a coincidence that when Peddie was removed from hockey operations the leaks stopped.

The draft is less than three weeks away, it will be interesting to see if the controlled flow of information from the Leafs can be maintained. Moreover, it will be fascinating to see how the media adapt their approach to covering the Blue and White.

With so many reporters on the beat and so many Leaf fans clamouring for information, I don't think the cone of silence can be maintained. But I am enjoying it while it lasts...

The Cost of Trading Up

When asked about his plans for the upcoming NHL draft, GM Brian Burke was about as circumspect and quiet as a six year old kid who’s had three espressos, two helpings of cake, and was on his way to get his first puppy.

Burke claims he wants John Tavares and he doesn’t care who knows it.

According to the roughly 4,268 media experts assigned to cover the Leafs, the cost of moving up in the draft from Toronto’s #7 slot to #1 or #2 varies from the Leafs’ first and second round picks to RFA Mikhail Grabovski to a package of Tomas Kablerle and Luke Schenn (that’s one way to cover the waterfront).

A juicy sub-plot to all of this has Tampa’s money woes hooking up with the Leafs deep pockets in a match made in hard-cap heaven. The most common rumour has Ryan Malone and his $17M contract as the lead item in a Leafs-Bolts swap.

Given the broad range of predictive costs for the Leafs to move up, I thought I’d take a look at first round picks traded over the past ten years to see what type of package it has traditionally required to move into Tavares territory.

The 1999 draft is a great place to start as it’s the draft where Burke made a series of moves to land the Sedins. Of note, the 4th overall pick in ’94 was traded so many times that the Rangers really should have drafted a relative of Gary “Suitcase” Smith.

Here are the trades involving high first round picks that I could find (I tried to keep it to the top 10ish draft picks). It’s certainly not an exhaustive or complete list by any means, but it hopefully provides some context and relative historical costs for a team looking to move from the seventh pick to first or second overall…

Canucks Acquire	Chicago Acquires
1999 1st round pick (4th overall)	2000 1st round pick (11th overall) Bryan McCabe

Canucks Acquire	Lightning Acquires
1999 1st round pick (1st overall)	1999 1st round pick (4th overall) 1999 3rd round picks (75 and 88th)

Thrashers Acquire	Canucks Acquire
1999 1st round pick (1st overall)	1999 1st round pick (2nd overall) 2000 conditional 3rd round pick

Rangers Acquire	Lightning Acquire
1999 1st round pick (4th overall)	2000 1st round pick (8th overall) 2000 3rd round pick (74th overall) Dan Cloutier Niklas Sundstrom

Flames Acquire	Rangers Acquire
1999 1st round pick (11th overall) Marc Savard	1999 1st round pick (9th overall) 1999 3rd round pick Jan Hlavac

Islanders Acquire	Ligthning Acquires
2000 1st round pick (5th overall) 2000 4th round pick (105th overall) 2000 7th round pick (202nd overall)	Kevin Weekes Kristian Kudroc 2001 2nd round pick (31st overall)

Avalanche Acquire	Carolina Acquires
2000 1st round pick (14th overall) 2000 2nd round picks (47th, 63rd) Noalan Pratt	Sandis Ozolinsh 2000 2nd round pick (32nd overall)

Senators Acquire	Islanders Acquire
2001 1st Round Pick (2nd overall) Zdeno Chara Bill Muckalt	Alexei Yashin

Columbus Blue Jackets Acquire	Florida Panthers Acquire
2001 1st round pick (1st overall)	2002 1st round pick (3rd overall) Option to swap 2003 1st round picks

Philadelphia Acquires	Lightning Acquire
2002 1st round pick (4th overall)	Ruslan Fedetenko 2002 2nd round picks (34th and 52nd)

Florida Acquires	Calgary Acquires
2002 1st round pick (9th)	2002 1st round pick (10th) 2002 4th round pick (99th)

Florida Acquires	Rangers Acquire
2002 1st round pick (10th) 2002 2nd round pick (40th) 2003 4th round pick (116th) Igor Ulanov Filip Novak	Pavel Bure2002 2nd round pick (33)

Philadelphia Acquires	Phoenix Acquires
2003 1st round pick (11th overall) 2002 second round pick (52nd)	Daymond Langkow

Penguins Acquire	Florida Acquires
2003 1st round pick (1st overall) 2003 3rd round pick (73rd)	2003 1st round pick (3rd overall) 2003 2nd round pick (55th)

Carolina Acquires	Blue Jackets Acquire
2004 1st round pick (4th overall)	2004 1st round pick (8th overall) 2004 2nd round pick (59th overall)

San Jose Acquires	Atlanta Acquires
2005 1st round pick (8th overall)	2005 1st round pick (12th overall) 2005 2nd round pick (49th overall) 2005 7th round pick (207th overall)

Rangers Acquire	Atlanta Acquires
2005 1st round pick (12th overall)	2005 1st round pick (16th overall) 2005 2nd round pick (41st overall)

San Jose Acquires	Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire
2007 1st round pick (13th overall) 2007 2nd round pick (44th overall) 2009 4th round pick	Vesa Toskala Mark Bell

San Jose Acquires	St. Louis Acquires
2007 1st round pick (9th overall)	2007 1st round pick (13th overall) 2007 2nd round pick (44th overall) 2008 3rd round pick (87th overall)

Islanders Acquire	Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire
2008 1st round pick (7th overall) 2008 3rd round pick (68th overall) 2009 2nd round pick	2008 1st round pick (5th overall)

Nashville Acquires	Islanders Acquire
2008 1st round pick (7th overall)	2008 1st round pick (9th overall) 2008 2nd round pick (40th overall)

What can we learn from all of these trades?

• That it’s a shame Burke can’t call on GMs such as Mike Milbury (man, that Yashin trade looks even worse with time), Rick Dudley (a 5th overall for Kevin Weekes and a 4th for Ruslan Fedetenko?) or good old JFJ (Toskala and Bell for a 1st, 2nd and a 4th.)


• Burke needs to talk Sandis Olzonish out of retirement. He’s the only guy on the list who was traded twice for a top 10 pick


• With all the variables involved (depth of draft, rank of picks exchanged, organizational need) it's difficult to determine a cost for the Leafs to move up into the top two, but historically the cost has been a swap of first round pick plus some combination of 2nd and 3rd round picks and lesser quality players


• Kaberle and/or Schenn seems to be an overpayment to get into the Tavares/Hedman sweepstakes.

The bigger challenge for Burke may be the off-ice side of the deal. Both the Isles and Bolts are having financial issues. The economic decline and shrinking salary cap means high draft picks and young prospects are more valuable than ever.

With the Isles potentially on the move, in need of a marquee player, and holding the #1 overall draft pick for the first time since 2000 (and just the fourth time in franchise history) I doubt that there’s a deal to be made in Nassau County.

Tampa and that number 2 pick may be a different story...I just hope if a deal is made it's along the lines of the Penguins - Panthers deal in 2003 or the Canes-CBJ trade in 2004.

**update**
It just struck me that when Burke traded up from from 11th to 4th in 1999, he dealt a promising young defenceman who had been acquired by the previous GM. How long until we see Simmons, WCH or Cox weigh in with a "history repeats" piece with Schenn as the cornerstone of Burke's draft day manouverings, just as McCabe was in 1999?

Luke Schenn

Got an email asking for an opinion on the Leafs keeping Luke Schenn up with the big club this year.

I have to say I really have no idea and I'd question anyone that has an ironclad opinion on any of this. Unless you're in charge of player development, how do you know what's right for each player? And if any blogger, journalist, member of the message board commentariat is so certain about what's right then I would advise them to polish up their CVs as there's huge demand with 28 or so NHL clubs for people that can identify NHL ready talent and the best path for development with that much certainty.

The men in the coaching offices and executive suites should be ideally placed and trained to have far more insight into this sort of things then a guy procrastinating in his office on a Monday afternoon, but then again, these are the same suits that signed Raycroft and Budaj to "anchor" the Avalanche nets, Jason Blake to a five year $20M deal and DiPietro to a 27 year three billion dollar contract, so there's certainly room to question the collective wisdom of sports executives.

In terms of precedence, I'm sure that for every success story of 18 year old d-men prospering (Stevens, Pronger) there's two or three times more busts, but that may be a bigger statement on the variables of drafting kids (how many 1st rounders turn out to be busts no matter where or how they're developed?) than it is an informed look at how to best develop NHL talent.

I guess I look at it this way:

If you were Ron Wilson, and you had his ego and his pride, and you had a diamond like Schenn would you want him to go back to junior to be coached by Ryan Huska or would you rather take a hands-on approach in helping him develop into a prime NHL defenceman?

If you were Cliff Fletcher, would you care about losing a single year of contract value in 2012 or '13. Most likely a season or two into a new collective bargaining agreement?

If you were a big-shot at MLSE and were focused maintaining profits and interest in your team, would you keep the young phenom in your line-up, or push to send him 4000Km west?

If you were Luke Schenn or his agent, where would you rather play?

If you were Matt Stajan (and we're going to go all the way back to 1980 for this tepid pop culture reference) would you want your bodyguard heading back to Kelowna while the Matt Dillon's of the league keep shaking you down for lunch money?

And I'm happy to see that the media coverage on this has shown the sports writers propensity for hard work, use of insider access and seeking out the ideal source by offering extensive quotes from the directors of player development at teams around the league, oh wait...

So there's my waffling - what's your take?