Not Ready for Leafs' Tragic Number

There were a lot of reasons the Leafs weren’t going to make the playoffs this year.

Some might cite their no-show against Tampa or pissed-away points against the likes of the New York Islanders. But the primary reason this Leafs are on the outside looking in is that ugly losing skid back in November (well, that, and sub .900 goaltending they had for much of the season).

The late arrival of goalie James Reimer gave the Leafs and, more importantly, Leaf fans a measure of hope not seen since the first few weeks of the season. Factor in a few Leafs regressing to their norms – Phil Kessel started to find the net, Dion Phaneuf too, even Colby Armstrong got in on the act – and the calls to fire Ron Wilson grow quieter. It's amazing how the return of primary and secondary scoring coupled with competent goaltending will do wonders for a team (and its fan base).

I’m a numbers guy. My wife jokes that I’m a Vulcan. Until I had kids, I wasn’t even sure I had tear ducts, but there are times when numbers and logic take a back seat to hope.

And while I had hope for this club and seriously enjoyed the run, numbers and logic were always lurking in the background (as much as I find the underlying stats illuminating, these particular stats always seemed dark and ominous. The type that would be accompanied by a soundtrack heavy on the timpani, set in a minor key).

Having to compete with four or five other teams for that final playoff spot meant a lot of bubble teams playing each other and picking up points - the prevalence of three point games made it tougher still.

Tragic Numbers

Yes, the Leafs were likely done in November, yet I’m still not ready to start counting down their tragic number.

For me, the best part about the Leafs recent streak wasn’t dreaming about the playoffs or thinking of various droughts coming to an end, it was the simple fact of being able to enjoy watching the team play.

Imagine that.

For far too long, the Leafs simply couldn’t compete and often looked beaten early. There were many nights when the only thing to cheer for was a lone goal to break the other team’s shut-out or hoping that the score would at least remain respectable.

But for the last few weeks it was great to have close games and, on most nights, a team worth cheering for.

The last time I bought a Maple Leafs Jersey John Brophy was behind the bench. I've never even gotten it lettered. Now I find myself looking at sites like SportsMemorabilia.com contemplating buying a new sweater (maybe Kulemin or more likely a Yushkevich throwback).

Yes, there were a lot of reasons the Leafs weren’t going to make the playoffs this year but for the first time in a long time, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic.

It makes for a nice change.

Take one step and miss the whole first rung

The Leafs 6-2 loss to the Snoozin' Bruins may help answer a question that has puzzled me since February 26: how many must-win games can one team actually lose? Based on the season to date and the attendant media nonesense, my guess is three, maybe four.

The Leafs coughing up six (rather ugly) goals to the Bruins marks the first time Boston has potted a six-spot since November. It may also mark a very sad day at the CBC. With the Leafs out of the playoffs, I foresee mass layoffs down at the CBC and a move to a 24 hour cycle of nothing but Mr. Dressup, the Friendly Giant, Trouble with Tracy and King of Kensington re-runs.

As for the draft v. playoff-drive debate: the Leafs are six points out with five games to go. More importantly, the Leafs are five up on the Islanders who sit in 26th - the final spot that has a (remote) shot at winning the draft lottery.

If I were coach or GM, it would clearly be Raycroft time (hint: scan down to 75th spot to find him).

Praying for the Playoffs or Planning the re-build

Unlike PPP, I'm not back on the Leafs playoff band wagon (yet). While I'd love for the team to keep winning and I've really enjoyed the last few games (is there a better team to beat than Philly? I just hate the flyers) I'm still trying to focus on the big picture. The more compelling story lines for me remain: who is going to clean this mess up, what prospects might be headed for the blue and white, and can this organization make a long-term commitment to building a winning culture.

Whether you're praying for the playoffs or planning for the re-build here are some links that might be of interest:

For you playoff dreamers, check out this Yahoo site - each day they update the first round playoff match-ups as if the playoffs were starting today. Bruins v. Habs? Meh, not so much. Stars v Ducks? Now that would be an interesting opening round match-up. Hat tip to Deadspin's hockey closer Greg Wyshnyski for that link.

For those of you who dream of a re-build, here's an amazingly candid look at what's going on with the L.A. Kings. It's long but well worth the read - fascinating stuff about Mark-Andre Fleury, arbitration, building teams with free agents, etc. Hat tip to Mirtle on this one...

Competing Interests?

Ack! Yesterday my blog entry was remarkably similar to Damien Cox's entry at the Spin. I'm not sure I'm down with this particular piece of synchronicity.

But Cox's column, Paul's comments on my blog entry and Paul Hunter's item in Today's Star all raise an interesting point: at what point does the organization put long-term interests ahead of the short-term W and L columns?

Now, before the tank brigade arrives (and while the rest of us wait for Darren Dreger to finish sounding out these multi-syllabic words) let me be clear: I'm not talking about anyone throwing games; I am not suggesting any player give anything less than 100%; I am not recommending a coach, player or anyone at MLSE take any action that brings the integrity of the team, league or sport into question (like, I don't know, the LA Kings recalling and actually playing Dan Cloutier).

I'm just wondering at what point Fletcher or someone at MLSE clues in and says it's time for Tlusty and Williams to have a regular shift, in all three periods and in all game situations. It's time to see Stralman on the PP, PK and ES. It's time to shut down the injured and infirm and to recall Earl. It's time for Toskala to take a well deserved night off and for Raycroft to see if he can keep his save percentage close to the .800s (or maybe even higher).

And while I'm completely and thoroughly convinced this club can't and won't make the playoffs, the last time the Leafs changed-up the goalies and gave the kids a chance, the team went 10 and 2 down the stretch.

As a Leaf fan, it sure would be nice to see the kids play so we can get a sense of what the future might hold. It would be great to get injured players off the ice and start getting them ready to play next year when it actually matters, and it sure wouldn't hurt to have a better shot in the draft lottery this summer.

Lost Weekend

Thoughts on this weekend's games...

1. Found it fascinating that the Penguins consistently dumped the puck in on the Leafs left D and sent two forwards in hard after it all night. Three of the four Penguins goals were generated out of that part of the ice, including the game tying marker.

2. Is there any one that likes Glenn Healy's broadcast work? Anyone...

3. I'm not casting blame here - hockey is a team sport - but I bet Raycroft would love to have another crack at the Penguins tying goal (he seems so slow laterally, he was still hugging the right post when the puck was hitting the net). Same goes for goals one and three against the Rangers. That was some ugly stuff.

4. With Cola banged up in New York (he didn't even come out of the room for the third period) and Perrault nailed to the bench against Pittsburgh, that Bell trade is looking just stellar.

5. Enough with the man games lost to injury meme. Two players: Wozniewski (out for 59 games) and Mike Peca (out for 43 and counting) make up for nearly a third of the team's total...the reason the Leafs are unlikely to make the post-season has very little to do with injuries and everything to do with their inability to keep the puck out of the net (and to hold onto a lead - Leafs are 22nd in the NHL when leading after 2)

6. I can't believe I watched the Rangers game until the Rags posted their seventh goal...which also cost me this week in my rotisserie hockey pool, the guy I was up against had Jagr and Nylander. We were tied until the puck bulged the twine.

7. Leafs tragic number is 3.5 (SOL and OT kinda messes up the math here - I guess I should it round up to four?) Any combination of points lost by the Leafs and points gained by Montreal that adds up to 3.5 (4?) means it’s all over for Mats and Co.

Playoff Odds

Seven games to go, three teams to leapfrog, will the Leafs make it?

Here are several great places to check-in and see how the math adds up for the Leafs (and the odds don't seem to be in the Leafs' favour, unless you were hoping they'd finish 11th.)

James Mirtle's Playoff Push
Hockey Numbers' Conference Projections
Zorak's Magic (and Tragic) Numbers
Hockey Analysis Projected Standings

10th Place Push

With the big game against the Habs comign up, I thought I'd update the post-season chart...like Mirtle (and so many others) the chart is sorted by winning percentage. It presumes that 92 to 95 points will put a team into the playoffs...

Winning Percentage: Projections for the Post-Season

Team	Win %	GR	Record to 92 Pts	Record to 95 Pts
1. BUFFALO	0.702	20	2-17-1	4-16-0
2. NEW JERSEY	0.661	20	5-15-0	6-13-1
3. PITTSBURGH	0.625	22	8-13-1	10-12-0
4. OTTAWA	0.613	20	8-12-0	9-10-1
5. TAMPA BAY	0.579	19	9-9-1	11-8-0
6. NY ISLANDERS	0.565	20	11-9-0	12-7-1
7. ATLANTA	0.563	18	10-8-0	11-6-1
8. TORONTO	0.556	20	11-8-1	13-7-0
----	---	--	---	---
9. CAROLINA	0.555	18	10-7-1	12-6-0
10. MONTREAL	0.547	18	11-7-0	12-5-1
11. BOSTON	0.525	21	14-7-0	15-5-1
12. NY RANGERS	0.516	20	14-6-0	15-4-1
13. FLORIDA	0.484	19	15-3-1	17-2-0
14. WASHINGTON	0.468	20	17-3-0	18-0-1

Leafs v. Oil

The Oil
For a long time, the Oil were team 1B for me. As a teenager, they were a team I could root for in the post-season while my leafs golfed.

When they won the Cup in '90, a buddy of mine phoned me from his home in the North East corner of Edmonton and I could hear the car horns blaring in the background throughout the call.

Sadly, that's the closest I've ever been to celebrating a Cup win.

Both of these teams have more in common than any Oiler fan would willingly admit: from terrible ownership (bordering on corrupt and criminal in both cases) to their formidable history; from bringing in players on the wrong side of their careers (Nedved; Nolan; Nilson; Oates; Gingras; Laraque) to patches of horrific drafting. And, for both of these organizations, their best years are well behind them.

Yeah, the Oil had a tremendous run in the 80s that will likely never be seen again - and their fans will be the first to remind you about that - but I have to ask what's the statute of limitations on nostalgia? It's been 40 years for the Leafs and 18 for the Oil...Sure, I'd rather be on the side that only has to count to 18, but when you start measuring in decades it's a bit like bragging about being the world's tallest midget.

Keon
My dad's favourite player. I remember him playing with the Whalers and burying the Leafs one night when I was seven or eight years old. My dad was thrilled. I was right pissed off - at Keon, at my Dad and at Ballard.

Nice work by JFJ to get him back. Lowetide has a nice post on Keon as well.

The 1967 Reunion
Glad they did something for the team on this anniversary but I'm not so sure that centre ice before the game was the right time and place.

I certainly can't recall any other professional sports team recognizing a (rather embarrassing) milestone like this. At least Anne Murray wasn't brought out to mark the occasion...

I'd love to know the Leafs record following ceremonies like this one.

They lost when the Gardens closed, they lost the night they honoured Kelly, Day and Salming, they won when Sittler's 27 went up...I just have a feeling that, more often than not, these opening ceremonies end up in the L column for the Leafs.

The Penalty Shot
Likely the right call, but why the delay? That ref took his sweet time to point to centre ice...Anyone know Raycroft's stats on penalty shots? Given his stats in the shootout (23rd overall, .600 save percentage) I'd guess he's right near the bottom among active goalies. Maybe they should have stuck Aubin between the pipes for that one.

Trade Nonsense
With the Oil falling further and further from the post-season I'm extremely doubtful that they're going to be buyers in the next two weeks. This road trip (pasted by Boston?!?) has tilted the scales from buyer to seller. Moreover, the Oilers strike me as a team more in need of a puck moving D than a scrappy PP specialist like Tucker (and I'm pretty sure Craig Simpson could figure out how to make Tucker ineffective on the Oiler powerplay anyways.)

All of that to say, did anyone notice Lupul tonight? Did the guy even dress? This is who Leaf Nation is talking up? Over 14 minutes, 21 shifts, -1, 1 shot on net. Meh. The Leafs might as well spend $2.5M on the invisible man. This is not a guy I want on the Blue and White.

The Meaningless Projected Standings as of Saturday Night

Team	Win %	GR	Record to 92 Pts	Record to 95 Pts
1. BUFFALO	0.703	23	4-18-1	6-17-0
2. NEW JERSEY	0.667	25	7-18-0	8-14-1
3. PITTSBURGH	0.616	26	11-14-1	13-13-0
4. OTTAWA	0.602	23	10-12-1	12-11-0
5. ATLANTA	0.575	23	11-11-1	13-10-0
6. TAMPA BAY	0.575	22	11-10-1	13-9-0
7. TORONTO	0.559	23	13-10-0	14-8-1
8. CAROLINA	0.549	21	12-8-1	14-7-0
-----------	---	--	---	---
9. NY ISLANDERS	0.542	23	14-9-0	15-7-1
10. MONTREAL	0.533	22	14-8-0	15-6-1
11. NY RANGERS	0.526	24	15-8-1	17-7-0
12. BOSTON	0.509	25	17-8-0	18-7-0
13. WASHINGTON	0.474	24	18-6-1	19-4-0
14. FLORIDA	0.475	22	17-4-1	19-3-0

Teams are sorted by winning percentage, not points. Teams have not been re-seeded by division standings. Philadelphia cannot make 92 or 95 points.

Math was done by hand - let me know if there are any errors...

Playoffs, Contracts and the Trade Market,

Trade Deadline Deals: What's the Market?

Forsberg goes to Nashville for Upshall, Parent, a first round pick and a conditional third rounder...quite the purse for 24 regular season games of Forsberg plus however many games they can make-it in the post-season.

Given Foppa's ankle/back/foot/ injury woes, Nashville will be lucky to get him for 20 games and 90% of the post-season match-ups.

Nagy (8g/33a/41pts -3) goes to Dallas for a first round pick and Tjarnqvist. Amazingly, those 41 points put him first in scoring in Dallas.

Shane Doan (19g/16a/35pts -7) signs a $22.75M/five year deal (cap hit=$4.55M/yr) with the Phoenix Coyotes.

Tucker (19g/12a/31 -13) has better numbers this season than both Nagy and Doan in far fewer games. He's got more miles and less upside than Doan, so the contracts aren't exactly comparable (although I'm sure Sosa is already working up the spreadsheets for JFJ's consideration).

Given the prices paid for Forsberg, Nagy; given the money thrown at Doan; given the $18M tithed to the Leafs D; and given that the Leafs are playing their best hockey with Tucks on the sideline, it's clearly time for JFJ to pull the trigger and send Tucker out of town...sadly, I don't think it's going to happen.

Meaningless Projections as of Feb 15 - Leafs are in...

Team	Win %	GR	Record to 92 Pts	Record to 95 Pts
1. BUFFALO	0.707	24	5-19-0	6-17-1
2. NEW JERSEY	0.667	25	8-17-0	9-15-1
3. PITTSBURGH	0.616	26	11-14-1	13-13-0
4. OTTAWA	0.595	24	11-12-1	13-11-1
5. ATLANTA	0.585	23	11-11-1	13-10-0
6. TAMPA BAY	0.576	23	12-11-0	13-9-1
7. TORONTO	0.552	24	14-10-0	15-8-1
7. NY ISLANDERS	0.552	24	14-10-0	15-8-1
-----	--	-	--	--
9. MONTREAL	0.542	23	14-9-0	15-7-1
9. CAROLINA	0.542	22	13-8-1	15-7-0
11. NY RANGERS	0.535	25	15-9-1	17-8-0
12. BOSTON	0.509	27	18-9-0	19-7-1
13. WASHINGTON	0.474	24	18-6-1	20-4-0
14. FLORIDA	0.466	23	18-4-1	20-3-0

Teams are sorted by winning percentage, not points. Teams have not been re-seeded by division standings. Philadelphia cannot make 92 or 95 points.

Math was done by hand (while coding with Blogger's awkward interface) so please let me know if there are any errors.

Nice Shot Antro: Games Updated through Feb. 14

UPDATED WITH GAMES THROUGH FEB 14:

When you outshoot a team nearly 3:1, it's hard to lay blame on the losing team. That said, if anyone knows what Antropov was thinking in the shoot-out, I'd love to know. Who the hell goes five hole from the other side of the hash marks?

Here's how the crazy east looks with another one day after another ACC home ice loss in the books:

Winning Percentage: Projections for the Post-Season

Team	Win %	GR	Record to 92 Pts	Record to 95 Pts
1. BUFFALO	0.702	25	6-19-0	7-18-1
2. NEW JERSEY	0.667	25	8-17-0	9-15-1
3. PITTSBURGH	0.616	26	11-14-1	13-13-0
4. OTTAWA	0.595	24	11-12-1	13-11-1
5. ATLANTA	0.585	23	11-11-1	13-10-0
6. TAMPA BAY	0.569	24	13-11-0	14-9-1
7. CAROLINA	0.551	23	13-9-1	15-8-0
8. TORONTO	0.544	25	15-10-0	16-8-1
8. NY ISLANDERS	0.544	25	15-10-0	16-8-1
-----------	--	-	-------	------
9. MONTREAL	0.542	23	14-9-0	15-7-1
11. NY RANGERS	0.527	26	16-9-1	18-8-0
12. BOSTON	0.509	27	18-9-0	19-7-1
13. WASHINGTON	0.474	25	19-6	20-4-1
14. FLORIDA	0.466	23	18-4-1	20-3-0

Teams are sorted by winning percentage, not points. Teams have not been re-seeded by division standings. Philadelphia cannot make 92 or 95 points.

Math was done by hand (while coding with Blogger's awkward interface) so please let me know if there are any errors.

Making the Grade

Thanks to a comment from Tim and with nod to James Mirtle's Chart, I thought I'd rough out what it's going to take to make the post-season in the Eastern Conference.

Mirtle is projecting it will take 95 points to make the cut, I've been a bit softer estimating the cut at 92 or 93 points (although given the torrid play of so many of the teams on the bubble, Mirtle may be right...)

Here's a look at how things shape up as of mid-day Sunday, February 11th (chart includes Tampa's win over New Jersey but not the result of the Thrashers - Oilers game). Current standings are based on winning percentage, not total points. I also haven't re-sorted the list along with Division leaders seeded 1-2-3...

Winning Percentage: Projections for the Post-Season

Team	Win %	GR	W% to 92 Pts	W% to 93 Pts
1. BUFFALO	0.702	25	0.240	0.260
2. NEW JERSEY	0.661	26	0.346	0.365
3. PITTSBURGH	0.609	27	0.463	0.481
4. ATLANTA	0.595	24	0.479	.500
5. OTTAWA	0.588	25	0.500	0.520
6. MONTREAL	0.561	25	0.560	0.580
7. TAMPA BAY	0.561	25	0.560	0.580
8. TORONTO	0.545	26	0.596	0.615
---	--	-	---	--
9. CAROLINA	0.543	24	0.604	0.625
10. NY ISLANDERS	0.536	26	0.615	0.635
11. NY RANGERS	0.527	26	0.635	0.654
12. BOSTON	0.500	28	0.679	0.696
13. WASHINGTON	0.474	25	0.760	0.780
14. FLORIDA	0.465	25	0.780	0.800

For what it's worth, no matter how Philly plays this year they can't make the playoffs...