Live from the ACC: After 40 Minutes

Some thoughts after 40 minutes down at the ACC...

It always struck me that the best thing for the Leafs this year was to play hard, develop their kids and lose a lot of one goal games. Leafs still have a chance to go three for three tonight, although I'd be most impressed if they came out flying in the third. Been a bit of a "meh" game so far. As much as I want a higher draft pick, I'd love to see Cujo and the Leafs get the win.

No Leaf wants to go to the front of the net tonight and it's killing their PP. Be nice to see the Leafs acquire a big body that will create some traffic in front.

Stajan is softer than a roomfull of those little white kittens that shill toilet paper.

To err is human, to make a big save is canine. Cujo looked awful - way too deep in his net - on the sabres first goal but has made a couple of beautiful stops tonight.

I've always hated those "make noise" and "Clap hands" interstitials on the scoreboard but they work. The fans sit on their hands until one of these digital prompts come up and then we all clap and cheer on cue. Sad.

Over under on Tragically Hip songs at the ACC has to be three if not four. They get played a lot. Sadly, no music from Chixdiggit yet.

That Joke Isn't Funny Anymore

Top 10 Items I'd like to See Banned from Leafs Coverage

10. Ubiquitous references to 1967/40-x years (and counting).

I don’t see 1975 in the Flyers headlines, 1955 in every article about the Black Hawks or "never" in write-ups of the Blues, Canucks, Sharks, Sens, etc. Seems most people who remotely follow hockey know the Leafs haven’t won the Cup in over 40 years.

This descriptor is about as fresh as the box of baking soda that went into the freezer with Walt Disney and about as insightful as Charles Duell’s most famous quote.

9. Tank v. Try

Pretty much the epitome of false dichotomy. Or is it Morton’s Fork?

8. Reducing the Leafs cup count to 11.

We get it. Yes the Arenas/St. Pats won 2 cups prior to officially becoming the Leafs, but removing those cups belittles the media more than it does the team or the fans. The owner and team name may have changed, but the bulk of the rosters remained with the team the following season.

Does anyone think the Twins can't count their World Series win as the Washington Senators; the Colts can't count Super Bowls won in Baltimore; the 76ers can't count titles won as the Nationals; and poor Sacramento should lose their NBA title from 1951?

Must trophy counts be re-set every time a team is bought, sold, moved or has a name change?

7. Any discussion of Sundin's future.

If and when he signs, there will be entire forests wiped out to generate newsprint for the resulting coverage. Until then, I don't think we need another special filmed at his dock or bad translations from Swedish newspapers...

6. Fan-centric "reporting"

The Ottawa media doesn't work the locals' apathy/insecurity into every story. The bandwagon isn't the lead item in Vancouver. Arson, white flight and a deep-seated love of Beef on Weck don't make the Sabres' game recaps.

So why do the day-to-day concerns, worries and wallets of Leafs Nation get such prominent play in every article from game summaries to in-depth features?

If I wanted to know what Tony from Woodbridge thought about the state of the Leafs specialty teams, I’d listen to a phone-in sports radio show and hear it directly from the source.

It's lazy, doesn't add value and it's not telling me anything new. Lose it.

5. Turning 1 or 2 game results into major trend pieces

It’s like identifying NFL trends based on a single quarter or half of a football game. How about a little perspective and some big picture analysis?

4. Complaining about the Leafs being on HNIC.

There are so many things wrong with these type of stories.

First: the Leafs play in Canada’s largest media market and the number five or six market in North America. There are more people in the golden-horseshoe than can be found in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta combined.

Second: Ratings don’t lie.

Third: Let’s look at who this really affects: if you’re in the Ottawa valley, you get Sens games. If you're in Quebec, you get Habs games (RDS also carries all 82 Montreal Canadiens matches). If you’re in Alberta or BC, the HNIC early game is on at 4 or 5PM and one of the Flames, Oilers and Canucks will be on during Prime Time.

That means the only people “stuck” with the Leafs live between Winnipeg and Belleville. If they don’t like that ratings, market size and demand are enough to make the Leafs the default HNIC game, they can subscribe to RDS, Center Ice, or explore on-line options (if I can get an NHL game over the web in New Delhi, and the World Juniors in Hyderabad, I'm sure there are ways to avoid the Leafs every Saturday night).

3. Pretty much anything Don "Bochenski for Calder" Cherry has to say.

Someone much smarter than I am called him the Ann Coulter of hockey. Is it a schtick or is he really old-man crazy? Either way, there must be better things to report on that what an old show-man had to say on Saturday night.

2. The "When will Ron Wilson go nuclear on the media?" stories

This media angle is the equivalent of repeatedly poking something with a stick and then filing a sensational report on what happened. It's also a good reminder to never underestimate the media's love of writing about themselves, interviewing fellow journalists or covering existing coverage. This meme is a perfect case in point and a little more than a media-created mess.

Given the inanity of the questions, the size of the media contingent and the lack of quality of much of the end product there is only one right answer here: not soon enough. But let's look at the crux of the story angle here: what does it matter if Wilson snaps? What does it mean if he doesn’t? What value does this potential story bring to our understanding of hockey?


1. Plan the Parade Jokes

My daughter’s favourite joke goes like this:

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Orange
Orange who?
Orange you glad I didn’t say banana?

I hear this joke about three times a day, seven days a week. It was funny and sort of cute the first time, but now it’s just white noise.

This is what the “plan the parade joke” has become.

But, in the case of the parade joke, it's not coming from an exceptionally adorable five year old who has no idea how tired and played out a joke can become. No, the joke is coming from a cadre of supposedly professionally trained journalists who have been hired and are compensated to provide insight and analysis on Canada’s favourite sport.

It's time for this one to be retired until the Leafs win at least three in a row.

A Man Called Bryan

With 10 potential NHL ready players on the blue line, and prospect Luke Schenn as the only waiver exempt defenceman, it’s clear that the Leafs are going to have to make a few moves to get down to the seven D-men they plan on carrying during the regular season.

I’m hoping the Leafs don’t give Schenn any more than the standard nine game look-see before sending him back down to junior, which would put the Leafs down to nine D.

Given the Leafs recent move towards players with more size and grit, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ian White moved, which would put the team at eight defenders.

That leaves Kubina and/or McCabe on the trading block.

Cliff Fletcher and Ron Wilson have both openly stated that McCabe is not in the team’s plans for the upcoming season. McCabe, despite his no movement clause (NMC), is clearly the more likely of the two D-men to be moved.

Timing

If it’s Kubina that’s going to be shipped out of town, the Leafs have a rather limited window to make it happen. Kubina’s contract permits the Leafs to trade him only between July 1 and August 15. After that, Kubina’s no trade clause kicks in, effectively pulling Kubina out of the trade market.

McCabe is due to receive a $2M bonus in September (his salary for this season is $4.15M+$2M bonus for $6.15 while his cap hit is $5.75M). I would presume that most teams would be far more inclined to deal for McCabe once that bonus has been paid by the fine fellows at MLSE.

Cap Hits, Chemistry and Conferences

If moving McCabe with his NMC wasn’t challenging enough, once you start to look at the cap situation across the league, it quickly reduces the number of possible trading partners for the Leafs.

So who’s a good trade destination for McCabe?

Several teams are either over the cap or so close to it they likely can’t take on McCabe’s $5.75 M cap hit. Cap issues pretty much rule out: Anaheim, Boston, Calgary, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Montreal, New Jersey, New York Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay.

Nashville, Phoenix and St. Louis have the extra cap space but are likely too constrained by team budget issues to take on McCabe’s $4.15M salary.

Sure, the Leafs could take back hefty salary in return, but it would have to pretty much be a dollar for dollar trade with any of these clubs, and given the log jam on D that precipitated this deal it would have to be a big-money forward. It’s difficult enough to find a trade partner never mind trying to balance out the salaries going each way, so I don’t think this is going to happen (but I could be way way off on this one).

McCabe’s rather free-wheeling style probably eliminates Minnesota and Florida outright too.

That’s 17 teams out of contention. (Of course, having said that on the record, the Leafs will definitely trade McCabe to one of these teams).

Then there’s the whole issue of location. McCabe has some personal/home life issues that have led many to conclude that he would only accept a trade to a team in the Northeastern United States.

Teams with cap space, but a west coast bias, include Colorado (still need to re-sign Sakic), Columbus, Edmonton, Los Angeles, San Jose and Vancouver.

Colorado already has seven pretty solid NHL d-men under contract.

Columbus just acquired Commodore, Tyutin and Backstrom and, despite signing Huselius, still need help upfront.

The Sharks have plenty of cap room, but having picked up UFA Rob Blake and dealt for Dan Boyle so there’s not much room there.

Similarly, with Visnovsky and Souray under contract in Edmonton there’s little to no chance a deal for McCabe is going to happen with the Oil.

That makes it 21 unlikely to make a deal.

So What’s Left?

Given McCabe’s alleged preference is to play close to home that leaves just six teams in the east as potential trading partners, two of which are division rivals.

East

Atlanta
With just five d-men under contract, the Thrashers still need to sign a few more blue liners. They have lots of cap space and could really use the PP help that McCabe could bring. The challenge will be finding the right return for McCabe as the Thrashers are rather thin upfront and don’t have the greatest prospect pool. It’s also not clear that McCabe would accept a move that far south.

Buffalo
The Sabres have just six d-men under contract for 2008-09 (having traded Campbell at the deadline and losing Kalinin as a UFA to the Rangers). Rumour has it that Sabres GM Darcy Regier has contacted 40 year old former Sabres D-man Teppo Numminen about a possible return (yikes) so there might just be an opening for McCabe (who has a knack for scoring last second game winning goals for the Sabres).

While the Sabres do have lots of young players to possibly complete a deal with the Leafs, they may have budget issues that are too large to take on McCabe’s cap hit. The Sabres have already committed $42M in salaries and they still have to qualify Bernier and Paille.

Furthermore, McCabe’s multi-year deal might also interfere with the Sabres’ ability to sign a slew of key players who are slated to become UFAs and RFAs in 2009-2010.

Carolina
The Canes do have about $9M in existing cap space. Unfortunately, they already have eight D-men under contract including PP guys Corvo and Pitkanen. The Hurricanes and Leafs do have a history as trading partners, but I have a hard time seeing McCabe squeezing into the Canes blueline or under their buget.

Islanders
The fish sticks have just six D-men under contract, but more importantly, the club has only 9F signed. There may be lots of cap space in Nassau County but most of it is going to be directed to finding another handful of forwards.

There is no doubt the Isles could use some help on their moribund PP; however, GM Garth Snow is on the record as saying he wants a pick from the Leafs in return for taking on McCabe’s contract. If that’s the opening bargaining position, I’m not sure where or how you even start to build a counter offer (how about a lower draft pick?)

Ottawa
With Redden signing in the big apple and Commodore heading out west, there is a roster spot or two open on D in the city that fun forgot (or to be more precise, in the suburbs of the city that fun forgot). The Sens do have cap room, but rumours of Boyle to the Sens might preclude a McCabe deal. I don’t see this one happening, but then again Raycroft got an NHL contract so anything is possible…

Washington
The Capitals have about $8M in cap space, but I have no idea if their budget permits them to hit the cap max. They also need to sign four RFAs to new deals and already have 7 D under contract. The Caps do have a number of young forwards and prospects that the Leafs could ask for in return for McCabe and Washington isn’t too far from the McCabe’s Long Island HQ. I wonder if Fletcher and McPhee have much of a history together…

West

Out west there appear to be just two options…

Los Angeles Kings
The team has just four D-men under contract and a whopping $28M in available cap space. Their PP quarterback Rob Blake was just signed by San Jose so there is an opening for a guy like McCabe.

As previously noted, the Kings are likely 4,000 km too far west for McCabe. The Kings are also without a coach at the moment (can you imagine the sh*tstorm in the Toronto media if the Leafs didn’t have a coach during free agency season?) which might make it a tad more difficult to talk McCabe and his agent Pulver into agreeing to a deal here. Still, it is an option.

Vancouver
The team has the cap space and the desperate need for offence that makes them a pretty good potential trade partner for the Leafs. They also need to add at least one more D-man to their roster, so they do have a vacancy on the blueline.

Having lost Markus Naslund and being such an offensively challenged club, I’m not sure they have the depth at forward to swing a deal with the Leafs. Moreover, as noted with the LA Kings, you can’t get much further away from Long Island and Toronto than Vancouver…

Life of Bryan

It’s hard to believe, but McCabe is just one season removed from being one of the top offensive defencemen in the league and two seasons removed from being an Olympian who actually got Norris trophy consideration.

Injury troubles certainly got the best of him last year and it can’t be a picnic being the whipping boy of the Toronto media (has any other athlete been called out as much by the press in this city? Has any paper ever demanded a player be traded on the front page of their paper?) but McCabe has handled all of this pressure with class.

Recent statements from Fletcher and Wilson have left little room for doubt that it’s time for McCabe to move on.

The $5.75 million dollar question is: where?

I think Nelson's going to die for sure

Look, I know the Sabres are pretty much out of the playoff hunt: three points back with two games to go and two teams to leap frog makes it a long-shot at best. I also know the game meant nothing to the Leafs.

But if I was cheering for Philadelphia, Boston or Carolina, I wouldn't be too happy with the Leafs sending out Williams, Kubina, and Pohl to finish off the shoot-out.

Just think about the anger Leafs Nation sent New Jersey's way for sitting Brodeur in the final game against the Islanders last year. At least Lou had the plausible excuse of resting his starter before the Playoffs.

Then again, the way Maurice has been running his bench I'm surprised he didn't reach all the way back to the first intermission and call on this crew to take on the Sabres in the shoot-out.

How Low Can You Go?

Nice to see this organization adapt and learn from past mistakes.

Last year, the team blew a lead late in Buffalo and it was clear the coach should have called a time-out. This season, the team blows it again in Buffalo and the coach doesn't call a time out.

I wonder if it will be as refreshing as it was last year when Maurice steps up with his media Mea Culpa later this week.

==========

I once played on a baseball team that was so bad that the catcher was not allowed to throw the ball back to the pitcher. After every pitch (that wasn’t knocked into the outfield or bounced off some poor batter’s ass) the pitcher would walk towards home and the catcher would walk towards the mound, they’d meet half-way, exchange the ball and repeat until the 9th batter came up each inning or the down-by-11-runs mercy rule came into effect.

When there was a guy on third base that was a threat to steal home, the catcher would sit on home plate with the ball in his glove until the ump would get so fed up he'd forbid the kid on third from stealing home just so the game could resume.

Oh, and the team was sponsored by a discount cigar store.

Sadly, I’m not making this up.

This is the anecdote that came to mind after tonight’s game in Buffalo (that and maybe, just maybe, if the Leafs can recruit a hotshot motorcycle riding tough guy played by a young Jackie Earle Haley, they might have a shot at turning this young season around…)

Is there a hockey equivalent to sitting on home plate and only walking the ball back to the pitcher? Well, if ever there was a team in need of such a defensive stratagem it’s the 1974 Washington Capitals who gave up 446 goals Leafs.

The Leafs have coughed up 29 goals against in just seven games and a whopping 11 goals in the third period (good for 29th in the league).

Now, I hear you - in fairness to the Leafs, they have already played dressed for seven games this year, so the totals are a bit high - it would be more accurate to look at goals against average, so let's re-do the math.

The Leafs have given up 4.14 goals per game - good for 28th overall in the NHL (see, by averaging it out we made it much better - to 28th from 29th).

What about if we look at the Leafs on a per-period average? Well, it’s…um, it’s still pretty frickin glum:
1 period GAA 1.00 (23rd)
2 period GAA 1.14 (19th)
3 period GAA 1.57 (25th)

If that wasn't bad enough, the Penguins are 27th in GAA and they're giving up half a goal less than the Leafs each game. You know it’s not a good sign when you’re looking to Michel Therien for defensive coaching insights...

Ten Things I've been thinking about lately...

10. I realize Maurice has more hockey knowledge in just one of those deep dark circles under his eyes than I will ever hope to acquire no matter how much hockey I watch, but as the Leafs game went up like a four alarm blaze in Tonawanda, why didn't Maurice call a time-out or swap out Raycroft? Anything to stop the bleeding. Instead, wave after wave of Sabres came at them, the Leafs got gut-punch crushed and Raycroft will have to be back between the pipes in 20 or so hours (watch that glove-hand Andy, it's a bitch).

9. I'm a little confused - the Leafs were supposed to be life and death to make the playoffs. The experts said it; the coach said it; many fans said it and the GM may have even said it. So what's with the injury story angle? If the Leafs were healthy, are we to believe they'd be protecting these leads, winning in shoot-outs, not choking? Only Peca's hurt at the moment and this team still looks like a 10 spot club or worse...

8. When discussing the Perrault deal, why do so many fans think Bell would have been lost to waivers? At the Trade deadline, the Leafs had the flexibility to acquire one player without having to pass anyone through waivers. Once the trade deadline passes, there is no roster limit (CBA 16.4a). If Bell was going to be lost to waivers (and there's no knowing if this is true or not) the earliest he would have been lost is October 2007. Seven months after the trade deadline. FWIW, Bell has more points since the trade than Perrault, although he's getting about twice the ice-time of Perrault (and what's up with #94 logging 6 to 10 minutes/game?)

7. It seems common knowledge that Ferguson will be fired if the Leafs miss the playoffs again this year (here, here, hell - everywhere) but I've never found a source for this. Does any one have a citation on this? A quote from Peddie, Tannenbaum or anyone at MLSE? I have a bad feeling Ferguson has at least another year left in him. I guess MLSE wants at least one more trade deadline to pass so they can sit on their hands.

6. The polarizing effect of Raycroft. He's not as good as the wins total crowd would have you believe (check out his total losses, his win percentage and the shoot-out wins compared to Eddie and Cujo) and on the other hand he's not as dreadful as some of the stats might suggest (his ES SV% is solid; his PK SV% is lower than a Sens fan's self-esteem each June.) Would he be such a divisive figure if he wasn't a JFJ acquisition and if the price paid for him wasn't so high?

5. If the Refs really had a bias against the Leafs, wouldn't they be the most penalized team in the league, not the 7th most. Sometimes refs (Hello Kerry Fraser!) are just the suck, no matter what colour jersey the teams happen to be wearing. And how on earth did Cola get away with that trip in the Jersey game if the zebras have it in for the Blue and White?

4. I always presumed the Leafs were bottom of the barrel at the shoot-out because of their shooters. Surprisingly, the shooters are decidedly average - ranked 16th overall - scoring at just a fraction less than the league average (a 0.8% difference). Raycroft's sv% on the shoot-out, on the other hand, is dipping towards the Caps' win percentage...

3. Why do fans bring up dumb things Leafs may have done when discussing the current rash of meat head plays in the NHL? What do any of Domi's past transgressions (Samuelson, Niedermayer, Arvedson, marital infidelity) have to do with what I might think of as appropriate discipline for Neil, Janssen, Simon and Tootoo?

2. What does this team really need in the off-season? Let me clarify that, what minor tinkering will MLSE undertake as part of their master plan? It's clear they can generate sufficient offence off the back-end (and there's such little flex with those contracts it seems the top 6 spots are locked down) but the club can't keep the puck out of their own net. Maybe a solid back-up goalie, someone that can eat PK minutes and a new special teams coach behind the bench to take a fresh approach to a moribund pk.

1. How many "must win" games can a team lose before the term must-win has no currency? Seems to me, the Leafs have lost three of the last four must-win games, which of course means Saturday night's match-up against the Sabres at the ACC is a must-win game.

Blackouts

I went down to Kingston to visit family this weekend and was rather surprised to find some shrappy medical drama on the CBC feed instead of the usual Saturday night hockey goodness.

All of the other CBC feeds were featuring the Sabres - Sens match.

Turns out the Leaf game was blacked out.

The good news: given the sloppy D, horrific officiating, over-committing goalies, useless colour commentary from the always-scattered Harry Neale, a lucky powerplay goal to win it all and a mindless bench minor crushing any hope of a comeback - it seemed just like a Leaf game.

The bad news: I didn’t get a single highlight from the Leaf – Philly game.

Not one.

I was getting game-time updates on my PDA (“Leaf Goal, details to follow”), but the Public Broadcaster, who are allegedly so biased towards those of us in the centre of the universe, didn’t send a single Leaf highlight my way.

Don’t Leaf games usually include out of town highlights? I was all set to be bitter about this, but maybe I’m just hallucinating and the HNIC Leaf feed doesn’t show highlights from the other Canadian matches…

Capology

Thought this was a great post - kudos to Paul Szeglowski for doing the leg work and the math (and for making the spreadsheet available too)

Not only would I love to see something like this done for the Leafs, I'd love to see something like this league-wide. It would certainly provide a much better understanding of just how much flexibility teams have as the trade deadline approaches.

Last thought of JFJ; First thought on the Sabres

I have one last thought on JFJ's tenure before I get to tonight's game with the Sabres.

One really positive thing about JFJ's time as GM that I should have mentioned is that he's clearly learned from his mistakes and he has not been passive about addressing them. Often, for political reasons or concerns about perceptions, senior personnel will not acknowledge that an error has been made. JFJ did the right thing for buying out Domi and not exercising Belfour's contract and he should get full credit for that.

=============

The Leafs are in Buffalo tonight. PPP has game day thoughts and I'll chime in with a few here.

Given that the Leafs win in Buffalo about as often as teams from Buffalo win championships, the Sabres are the hottest team in the NHL and the Leafs have been a pretty mediocre bunch this year it could be ugly tonight. Five alarm blaze in Tonawanda ugly. Superbowl XXVII or XVIII (your choice really) ugly.

Here's hoping the Leafs keep it close and if they do lose, Afinogenov and Vanek do major damage as I have both of them in my pool. No use losing to the Sabres if those two are kept off the scoreboard...

Rivalries

I'm glad the Leafs won G2 in Ottawa and not for the simple reason that I'm a leaf fan - the reason I'm glad the Leafs won goes a little deeper than that.

You see, I don't think the Leafs and Sens have much of a rivalry - despite what the media files to sell industrial fasteners.

With all this talk of the Leafs Sens "rivalry" and with the Habs coming to town on Saturday night, my brain served up an age old quote from Ken Dryden's seminal book The Game.

Over 28 pages in the middle of the book, Dryden beautifully describes a road trip to Toronto to play the Leafs near the end of the 1979 season.

He concludes:

There is no Leafs-Canadiens rivalry. It's dead: the Leafs killed it.

I remember being shocked as a 12 year old hockey nut when I read it and I’ve never forgotten those two simple sentences.

Not to put words in his mouth (he certainly has enough of his own) Dryden’s take on rivalry is that you need to have legitimate competition between rivals or else it dies.

The rise and fall of the Leafs in the late 70s is well known: management's failure to find adequate support for the promising core of Palmateer, Salming, MacDonald and Sittler; their inability to draft and develop talent coupled with a bad string of short-sighted trades, led to the decline of what could have been a very good team.

This decline in the Leafs came at a time when the Habs were losing about 12 games a season and racking up Cup after Cup. To Dryden’s point: not much competition in that – not much of a rivalry.

It’s not much different from the Leafs and Sens (not to say the Sens are anywhere near the level of that Habs dynasty, despite what Muckler might want us to believe). The Leafs may own the Sens in the post-season, but they’ve had their asses handed to them by the Sens in the regular season for years. Having your club go 1-7 in the regular season makes it hard to get up for a mid-February match against the skaters from the 613.

But never mind the media or my yapping, what about the perspective of Leafs Nation?

Offer a Leaf fan a choice of any games to attend at the ACC and hands down the Habs would be number one. Leafs tickets are hard enough to come by at the best of times, but just try to get a ticket to a Saturday night Habs match-up in this town.

I'd wager the Wings come in at #2 – partly because of the history between these two clubs and partly because they play so few games against each other these days. The third ticket goes to the Flyers. The fourth ticket? I think the average fan is going to chose to see Crosby or Ovechkin. That puts the Sens no higher than 5th on the hit list and they might just be neck and neck with the Sabres.

Think about that for a minute. Our great rival is a fifth or sixth choice ticket? This is what great rivalries are made of? Would a Red Sox fan pick four teams ahead of a chance to see the Yankees? Oilers and Flames fans pass each other by? I don’t think so…

Then there’s the history or rather, the lack of it.

The Habs and Leafs have been going at it for more than 75 years, never mind the whole French Canada/ English Canada divide.

The Leafs and Wings have been throwing elbows and lighting the lamp longer than Kanata's had paved roads.

The Leafs and Flyers had the crazy battles of the 70s and the Flyers have pulled the plug on the Leafs last few post-season plans.

The Sens have been around for what, 14 years? For the first five of those the Leafs were facing off against guys like Sylvain Turgeon, Peter Sidorkiweicz and Randy Cunneyworth. Throw in a year of labour stoppage, a year of role reversal with Jason Alison cast as your choice of Laurie Boschman, Gary Dineen or Dave Archibald and you've got maybe seven years of competitive hockey between these two clubs. Maybe.

Sorry, it's just not enough.

What about geography? Please. Ottawa as a town isn't even on the average Torontonian's radar. The Town-That-Fun-Forgot is further away than both Buffalo and Detroit and is only about 80 clicks closer than Montreal. To give it a bit more perspective Pittsburgh is just a shade further away than Ottawa. Steel-Town is likely a lot more fun too.

So we share the same Premier, big deal.

Reciprocity? Might be nice if both sides got as worked up about this. Ottawa fans may froth at the mouth over Toronto, but it's a one-way gig and it will likely be lessened now that the cap has eliminated the Leafs economic advantage.

Sure, the Leafs may have knocked the Sens out of the post-season 4 times, but Buffalo has now delivered the death blow three times, so it's not like the Leafs are unique in this regard.

One team has dominated the regular season series and the other the post-season match-ups. There’s not much fun in that.

A chance that these two-teams might actually give each other a run for the money? Now, that’s got some potential…

The Northeast Part 1: Buffalo Sabres

With training camp underway and the Leafs media circus cycle back in full swing, I thought it was a good time to step back from 9 pages of coverage about Cola leaving practice early and Gilmour getting JFJ's coffee in order to have a look at just what the Leafs are up against in the Northeast this year.

The Leafs play 32 of their 82 games against the Canadiens, Sens, Bruins and Sabres. These match-ups will go a long way in determining who's going to the post-season dance and who's moving to Bomont (the town where there is no dancing).

The first friendly of the Leafs pre-season is tonight at the ACC against Buffalo so the timing seems ideal to get an insider's look at the team from across the lake...Tom from Sabre Rattling was kind enough to offer his insight on all things Buffalo. I'd like to thank Tom for putting this preview together and extend an extra special thanks to Tom for not mentioning the Leafs all-time road record in Buffalo.

The 2006-2007 Sabres

Hey all, Michael was kind enough to ask me to inform y'all (yes, a former-New Yorker and converted southerner covers the Buffalo Sabres) of what I thought of the Sabres for the upcoming season, so here it goes.

Frankly, I think the Sabres are the deepest, strongest team in the Eastern Conference. This opinion may change with the play of some of the newcomers to the league as my grasp of other teams' prospects is not that strong, but with most of the team from 2005-06 returning and the defense strenghtened by the addition of Jaro Spacek, the Sabres from top to bottom should be the team to beat in the Northeast. I say that knowing that Boston has improved, as have the Leafs (if only in attitude), Ottawa has regressed (if only slightly) and the Habs are the Habs, neither better nor worse.

Looking at the team from the goal-line out we see that the goalies haven't changed, much to the surprise of some (namely anyone who thought we could afford to keep Marty Biron) and chagrin of others (Biron himself). There's nothing to suggest that Ryan Miller will regress this year. His progression has been steady and positive from Michigan State to Buffalo. Biron remains a strong presence in the locker room and the ultimate safety net in case of a catastrophic injury.

While the collection of blueliners in Toronto and Boston are both much improved, if a little top-heavy in Boston's case, the Sabres have a collection of 6 defensmen that are an example of depth and consistency. With the arrival of Jaro (Spock) Spacek I predict great tihngs from Dmitri (Tri) Kalinin, who struggled last season with a litany of small injuries that found him only geting his groove during the stretch run coming into the playoffs.

Lewdman/Tallinder, Kalinin/Spock, Numinnen/Soupcan is as good a, if not, the best group of defensemen in the Conference. It is their collective ability to efficiently retrieve and move the puck that makes them so good within Lindy Ruff's system, while being strong enough to spread the minutes out across all 3 pairs.

The Rochester Americans play the exact same system as the Sabres, making the transition for those players coming up in the case of injury that much easier.

The key to Buffalo's success last year started with these guys. Trading McKee for Spacek makes that group that much better at all the things it needs to do well. I'm sure my counterpart covering the Senators will quibble with my assessment, which is something I won't begrudge him. I happen to like our group of guys better than theirs, if only a little.

If there are questions for this team it is in the forward corps. While there is a good depth up front, there is a lack of sand with the departure of Mike Griere and The Chin (Dumont).

Losing Taylor Pyatt's man-purse doesn't hurt that much, as he can be replaced by either Chris Thorburn or Danny Paille (1st round 2002). While we have an intriguing mix of RW'ers on this club, Big Al Kotalik, Mad Max, Adam (Scud) Mair and Jason Pominville, we have neither Griere's boardwork and hitting or The Chin's nose for the puck and agitation. So, the early Camp reports that Drew Stafford (1st round 2004) may be ready for the show put me at ease, as he's a guy who can do much of what both departed RW's could do together.

Also, Thomas Vanek must take the next step in becoming an elite player in this league. Our offense depends on it. [ED's NOTE: I couldn't agree more, I have Vanek in my keeper hockey pool and I'm looking for him to light it up this year.]

Lastly, while we've all been assured that Tim Connolly's concussion problems are temporary... the question is for what sized values of the word 'temporary' are we talking about here? 1 month? 2? 4? 12? Timmah! is the key to our offensive depth, giving us 3 centermen who can generate stupid amounts of offensive pressure, while also playing reasonably strong defense.

At times last year Tim reminded me of Mike Modano in his approach to the game, and even the dumbest hockey fan knows that when you have a guy like Mike Modano holding down your 3rd line centerman duties, you have a wealth of depth down the middle.

With Connolly sidelined for the early part of the season either Derek Roy or Jiri Novotny will fill his role. If it's Roy, the emphasis will be on strong two-way play and if it's Novotny, then it will be more defenseive-minded. I'd prefer Roy on Drury's LW, but, we'll see how things shake out at training camp.

This is most certainly a playoff team, and in some ways, right now, the most complete team in the Eastern conference. The Sens look solid, as do the Flyers, Canes, Rangers and, possibly, Devils (they are the first team I'd pick to slip badly).

I think the Sens, Flyers, Canes, Rangers and the Sabres are a lock for a playoff spot. The others are up in the air, with my gut telling me that Montreal, Atlanta, either the Devils or Boston vying for the last spots.

I hope to see some of you stop by and give me and Matt what for over at www.sabrerattling.com as the season goes along. Take care and 'keep yer stick on the ice.'

Ta,

Tom L.

4 Days Late and a Match-up Short

This email exchange took place last week, but a number of issues on the home and work front kept me from posting it...it's a bit stale now and the Sharks may have sewn up their series before we even discussed it...

Buffalo v. Ottawa

Mike (BLF)

Buffalo has given the world chicken wings and, um, the Goo Goo Dolls? There may be the nightly fires, the deserted core and the rust-belt ambience, but there's also the beautiful Darwin Martin house and the Pearl Street Brewery aint bad either. Their old ball park is where they filmed one of my favourite movies, the Natural. Oh, and they have a Target (which Torontonians long for, like a bad student longing for summer break).

Ottawa, hmm, what can you say about the City that fun forgot? There's the Manx and beautiful weather for 3 months of the year, but it's also the birthplace of Tom Green.

If we weren't talking hockey, I'd suggest the best thing that could happen to either of these cities is that they be paved over and converted to parkland.

But back to hockey. Here are two clubs built on speed, both with goalies who shook off their critics in the first round, with near identical records (Sabres: 52-24-6/ Sens 52-21-9) and a one game differential in the season series (won by Ottawa 5-3). There's not a lot to choose from here.

I think it will go seven and the Sens additional game breakers will be the difference. But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the series go the other way.

Bonus prediction: the Sens will need to utilize their additional depth when Havlat is suspended for:

1. kicking (5-3 odds)
2. biting (8-1 odds)
3. surprise chair-shot on Thomas Vanek during the pre-game skate (50-1 odds)
4. distracting Mick McGeough while Jimmy "mouth of the south" Hart ties an unsuspecting Ryan Miller's skate laces together during OT (100-1 odds)
5. careless use of his stick resulting in some poor sabre getting whittled like a cheap piece of kindling (even)

Keith

Ahhhhh, Mike. Never let a moment pass to take a poke at the Nation's Capital (it may be the land that fun forgot, my friend, but it's no Buffalo).

Hockeywise, I don't think these cities are that evenly matched either. The season series is tight, but the all but one of the games that Buffalo won came later in the year when the Sens didn't have a full lineup.

If you look at earlier in the year when Ottawa had everyone playing there's just one shootout win and some pretty ugly blowouts:
Oct. 8: at Senators 5, Sabres 0
Nov. 2: Senators 10, at Sabres 4
Nov. 12: at Senators 6, Sabres 1
Feb. 4: at Sabres 2, Senators 1 (SO)
Mar. 18: at Senators 4, Sabres 2
Mar. 24: Senators 3, at Sabres 1
Apr. 5: at Sabres 5, Senators 4 (OT)
Apr. 8: Sabres 6, at Senators 2

Of course, we throw all of that out now and have to focus on what's new.

In my opinion, this has the potential to be one of the most exciting, high-scoring, hard hitting and fast-skating series of the second round if not the whole playoffs. That said, I don't think ANYONE can gun with Ottawa (as you said Mike, there's just too much skill). I know my opinion counts less because I'm a fan, but I'm voting for Beaver Tails and Manx brunch over chicken wings and urban blight.

Sens in six.

Dave
Well, I can't say I've had the pleasure (?) of ever visiting Buffalo, and since Ottawa has been my home for nearly the past 17 years, you have to figure I like it here. So I'll skip the burg-bashing in which my friend from the Centre of the Universe indulged (OK, that might have been a slight diss right there) and stick to hockey.

After all that, Mike, I pretty much agree with you. The speedy Sabres proved to me with their domination of the slow-footed Flyers they have what it takes to be a force in these playoffs. Ryan Miller has been solid in goal and with the likes of Briere and Dumont up front, Buffalo can put the puck in the net too.

Still, Ray Emery demonstrated he's no slouch between the pipes either, and Martin Havlat might be the most explosive player in this little Stanley Cup tourney.

I think this will be a very tight, fast-paced, entertaining series that the Senators will ultimately win because they have just a bit more depth and a stronger blueline.

It could take seven, but I'm going with Ottawa.

Carolina vs. New Jersey

Mike
Could the Devils have had an easier time dispatching the rangers in the first round? After watching much of that series, thanks to OLN, I have a feeling the Albany River Rats could have beaten Jagr and his mates in four straight.

Even though the Devils are on a roll (what is it, 15 straight now?) I think their win over the rangers was more indicative of a crappy, injured, Rangers club than it was of an emerging, dominant team from the Meadowlands.

Carolina bounced back nicely against the Habs, winning four straight to bring a close to that series (and proving that my brain was smarter than my gut for a change).

So what's going to happen when these two teams collide? A lot of close 2-1 or 3-2 games.

You could flip on a coin on this one, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say Canes in six.

Bonus Prediction: All but one game in this series will go into overtime.

Keith
I see a re-run of the Eastern conference final of a few years back.

Sure the Rangers blew up, but the 'Canes were doing the same thing until they put Cam Ward in net. Read that sentence again. Does anyone think that Cam Ward is better than Marty Brodeur? (You in the back with your hand up, you're LYING!...Oh, sorry Mrs. Ward.)

The question then becomes: How long can he keep it going? Or, perhaps more importantly, is the team in front of him good enough to stay alive with a rookie backstop.My answers are, "Not long enough" and "No."

Jersey in seven.

Dave
Keith, I couldn't agree with you more.

Carolina rebounded to get past the Habs, thanks in no small part to Saku Koivu's injury and the suddenly white-hot Cam Ward. But no matter how much you argue the Rangers sucked (and boy, did they ever) against the Devils, that 15-game winning streak is no mirage. (It's not like they played the Rangers all 15 times.)

Cam Ward has been a great story, no question. But Marty Brodeur was winning Cups when the 22-year-old Ward was still probably playing with Power Rangers, not against New York Rangers.

Brodeur's experience makes all the difference in this series.

Devils in six.

Colorado – Anaheim

Mike
Out in the west, I wish the series were reversed. Maybe I'm underestimating or undervaluing the Ducks, maybe I'm getting ahead of myself, but it seems to me San Jose - Edmonton should be the conference finals.

I'm still stunned that Colorado beat Dallas. I watched a fair bit of that series and it seemed the outcome had far more to do with Dallas shooting themselves in the foot (repeatedly) and the bounces going Colorado's way than with Colorado running away with it. Afterall, three of Colorado's four wins came in overtime.

Meanwhile, Anaheim looked very solid against the Flames - even though that series went the full seven.

I think Anaheim may have a bit of rust/bruises on them in game 1 but they'll prevail over the course of the series.

I like the Ducks in 6.

Keith
I would have written this before I game 1 (really!) but now that the duck's mauling of the Avalanche has happened, I feel even more confident about it.

The Ducks are going to dismantle these guys.

Theodore's been average at best and Dallas played terrible, TERRIBLE hockey in the first round. Anaheim has been playing tight, disciplined smart hockey over the last couple of weeks. I made a mistake in underestimating the Ducks in the last round, I won't again.

Anaheim in five.

Dave
It seems my gut feeling about the Ducks in the last series was right on the money after all. They played Calgary's game better in Game 7 than Calgary, frustrating the offensively challenged Flames and generating scoring chances with their own strong forechecking.

Neidermayer and Selanne led the way, but got plenty of help from their friends, in particular that Russian goaltender whose name I can't pronounce.

Even before last night's opener, I figured there was no reason why they couldn't do it again against Colorado. The Avalanche looked great against a listless Dallas team, but Randy Carlyle has his Ducks playing with a take-no-prisoners attitude that was good enough to beat the ultimate playoff-style team and will be more than good enough to beat the Avs.

Sakic, Blake, etc. might have enough heart to cajole a couple of wins out of their team, but Anaheim will prevail.

Ducks in six.

Link

April Fool's?

When I logged into NHL.com to check the score last night, I thought it was some sort of cruel April Fool's joke. Guess I was wrong.

More on the Leafs and the psychology of expectation soon...