Tomas Kaberle

Tomas Kaberle joined the Toronto Maple Leafs in 1998. He arrived as an unheralded and largely unknown 20 year old prospect drafted in the 8th round, 206th overall.

It was assumed he would start the year in the minors, but he skated his way onto that Pat Quinn led team and was a mainstay on the Leafs blue line for 13 years. (So much for Pat Quinn not playing or developing youngsters).

The kid with the rosy cheeks could skate. I’ve been watching the Leafs for nearly 35 years and there haven’t been many defencemen that could glide through the neutral zone and gain the blue line with the efficiency or apparent ease of Kaberle. Salming for sure, Randy Carlysle was another, but you’d only need one hand to count them all.

Kaberle’s detractors, and there are more than a few, didn’t like his defensive zone coverage or his lack of physical play. Fair enough, I suppose. Lucian Freud is likely a lousy singer and I guess Philip Roth can’t dance. Besides, the Leafs franchise is not alone in overvaluing the physical aspects of the game.

But Kaberle’s offensive contributions to the club cannot be denied. He sits in pretty elite company with the Leafs: fifth in assists, second in points by a defenceman and 11th in points overall (just 17 points back of Rick Vaive). Impressive numbers to be sure.

In the end, I am saddened by Kaberle’s departure. Like so many Leaf greats before him I fear he will not be judged by the lens of his accomplishments or how he performed on the ice, but by the shortcomings of his team during his tenure. It’s unfortunate that the failures of management, especially their inability to surround players like Kaberle with the appropriate pieces to win, will colour how many evaluate his career as a Leaf. I do hope time corrects that viewpoint as it has for Sittler, Salming and Sundin.

After 13 years, 878 games, four all-star appearances, a gold and silver World Championship medal and an Olympic Bronze Tomas Kaberle departs the Leafs for the Boston Bruins.

I wish him nothing but success in the future and look forward to his return to the ACC where I hope he will be acknowledged, if not for his wonderful contributions to the Toronto Maple Leafs, for waiving his No Trade Clause and ensuring that this club has yet more prospects and more hope for the future.

Kaberle and the Cat

Long serving Toronto Maple Leaf Tomas Kaberle's no-trade clause has an interesting wrinkle - it includes a short window each summer where the Leafs can trade him without his approval. This window opens on July 1 and runs to mid-August [or earlier/ later depending on the source]. It's very likely that Kaberle will be moved when his trade window opens, consider:

• What little organizational depth the Leafs have is on the blue line;
• In order to compete, the team needs to add quality forwards;
• Kaberle's age profile doesn't quite fit with the Leafs (hoped for) window of opportunity; and
• Kaberle seems to be the only asset of value on the roster that's even somewhat expendable.

I've been trying to think of an equivalent deal from the Leafs' past and I'm coming up short.

The Leafs have turned over their roster many times in the three decades that I've been following them but it's not often that such a long-serving player, drafted by the club, is so transparently put in position of waiting on a trade.

In terms of parallels, the only situation I can think of is Felix "the cat" Potvin.

Potvin and Kaberle's CVs cover some similar ground...

The Cat was drafted by the Blue and White and played eight seasons in Toronto after winning the starter's job over Hall of Fame goalie Grant Fuhr.

In his eight seasons as a Leaf, Potvin was a member of the NHL all-rookie team in 1993 and a finalist in the 1993 Calder voting. He made the NHL All Star team twice, led the NHL in goals-against in 1996-97 and had the best goals-against average in 1992-93. In his first full year as a Leaf, he backstopped the Leafs all the way to the Conference Finals.

Kaberle made the club as a surprise rookie and in his 10 seasons as a Leaf was a four time all-star. In his first full year as a Leaf, the team went all the way to the Conference Finals.

In 1998, the signing of UFA goalie Curtis Joseph created a log-jam in nets, making Felix expendable. After just five starts, Potvin left the Leafs in frustration and was AWOL for five weeks before being traded.

The signings of Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin, along with the emergence of Luke Schenn, created a log-jam on the Leafs' blue line, making one Leafs' D expendable. The odd man out appears to be Kaberle.

Potvin, it was claimed, was never the same after a cheap goal that came late in a game against the St. Louis Blues who were leading the league at the time. An Al MacInnis slap shot from out near centre ice beat Potvin over his glove, the Leafs lost the game and Potvin lost his mojo.

Kaberle, it has often been claimed, was never the same after a cheap hit by New Jersey Devil Cam Janssen.

In the end, Potvin went to the Islanders for former top draft pick Bryan Berard. The Islanders felt that Berard's offense would never make up for the defensive deficiencies in his game. The Leafs were looking to add more youth to their system and thought their coach, former defencemen Pat Quinn, was perfectly situated to help Berard develop into a top flight defenceman. Tragically, Berard's career was derailed by an errant high stick.

If, and when, Kaberle is moved in the next few weeks, in keeping with his similarities to Potvin, I wouldn't be surprised if the return to the Leafs is once again a flawed young prospect with lots of upside.

I do hope that a Kaberle trade has a happier ending than the Potvin deal for both the Leafs and whomever it is that they acquire.

Tomas Kaberle and the Process of Elimination

According to TSN, at least two teams have expressed an interest in acquiring Toronto Maple Leaf Tomas Kaberle and upwards of five teams may be in the hunt.

In discussing the potential return, Leafs GM Brian Burke told the Toronto Star, "We need to add a winger that can score, preferably with some size. And we need some secondary toughness. So those would be the areas we would try to address."

Given Burke's track record on following through on his proclamations (QV. his quest for Tavares, threatening to waive vets, promoting accountability while giving Toskala start after start) odds are the Leafs will move Kaberle for a defenceman and checking centre.

But let's give Burke the benefit of the doubt on this one and agree that the organization is looking for a winger that can score.

Sounds good, but who's out there?

In the spirit of my recent post on behavioural economics, Amos Tversky has written about a decision making strategy called "elimination by aspects" or EBA. The idea here is that in order to make an informed decision, decision-makers establish an overall goal and then narrow the range of choices by aspects (e.g. scoring, age profile, cost to acquire). Any alternatives that do not match the selected aspect are eliminated.

Essentially, EBA is making a decision by eliminations.

So how many scoring wingers are there for Burke to chose from?

In 2009-2011, there were a total of 178 forwards that scored at a 0.51 pts/game rate...let's start to narrow down the pool:

• 7 played less than 20 games (171)
• 67 are centres (104)
• 1 is a Leaf (103)
• 16 score at 1.0 pts per game or higher and will cost more than Kaberle and what the Leafs have in the cupboard (87)
• 12 are Unrestricted free agents (75)
• 16 have no-trade or no-movement clauses (59)
• 9 are 31 or older, which doesn't fit with the age profile that Burke often talks about (50)
• 3 fit Burke's profile, but are simply not going to happen: Vanek, Cammaleri, Tavares (47)

Obviously, these 47 players aren't the absolute list. Players with No-Trade and No-Movement clauses get traded all the time (well, maybe not from the Leafs). Burke may also be ok with acquiring an older player, or the Leafs may move Kaberle as part of a package to get a player with a higher points-per-game ratio. There are also players on here who, for many reasons - price to performance ratio (Bobby Ryan, I'm looking at you), their relative value to their club, etc. - are going to be difficult, if not impossible, to pry away from their team. There may also be prospects the Leafs have in mind that didn't play enough games, or put up enough points per game in limited experience and slipped under my radar.

With that caveat out of the way, here's my list of 47 scoring wingers, one of whom just might be wearing the blue and white in the next few weeks. The list has been sorted by team.

	PLAYER	TEAM	POS	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PPG
1	Bobby Ryan	ANA	R	81	35	29	64	9	0.79
2	Jussi Jokinen	CAR	L	81	30	35	65	3	0.8
3	RJ Umberger	CBJ	L	82	23	32	55	-16	0.67
4	Kristian Huselius	CBJ	L	74	23	40	63	-4	0.85
5	Jakub Voracek	CBJ	R	81	16	34	50	-7	0.62
6	Rene Bourque	CGY	L	73	27	31	58	7	0.79
7	Troy Brouwer	CHI	L	78	22	18	40	9	0.51
8	Kris Versteeg	CHI	L	79	20	24	44	8	0.56
9	Patrick Sharp	CHI	L	82	25	41	66	24	0.8
10	T.J. Galiardi	COL	L	70	15	24	39	6	0.56
11	Brandon Yip	COL	R	32	11	8	19	5	0.59
12	David Jones	COL	R	23	10	6	16	1	0.7
13	Chris Stewart	COL	R	77	28	36	64	4	0.83
14	Wojtek Wolski	PHX	L	80	23	42	65	21	0.81
15	James Neal	DAL	L	78	27	28	55	-5	0.71
16	Loui Eriksson	DAL	L	82	29	42	71	-4	0.87
17	Dustin Penner	EDM	R	82	32	31	63	6	0.77
18	DavidBooth	FLA	L	28	8	8	16	-3	0.57
19	DustinBrown	LAK	L	82	24	32	56	-6	0.68
20	Wayne Simmonds	LAK	R	16	24		40	22	0.51
21	JustinWilliams	LAK	R	49	10	19	29	3	0.59
22	Antti Miettinen	MIN	R	79	20	22	42	-2	0.53
23	Guillaume Latendresse	MIN	L	78	27	13	40	-3	0.51
24	Benoit Pouliot	MTL	L	53	17	11	28	8	0.53
25	Andrei Kostitsyn	MTL	L	59	15	18	33	1	0.56
26	Brian Gionta	MTL	R	61	28	18	46	3	0.75
27	DavidClarkson	NJD	R	46	11	13	24	3	0.52
28	Niclas Bergfors	NJD	R	81	21	23	44	-10	0.54
29	Patric Hornqvist	NSH	R	80	30	21	51	18	0.64
30	Matt Moulson	NYI	L	82	30	18	48	-1	0.59
31	Blake Comeau	NYI	R	61	17	18	35	-2	0.57
32	Kyle Okposo	NYI	R	80	19	33	52	-22	0.65
33	Milan Michalek	OTT	L	66	22	12	34	-12	0.52
34	ClaudeGiroux	PHI	R	82	16	31	47	-9	0.57
35	Radim Vrbata	PHX	R	82	24	19	43	6	0.52
36	Scottie Upshall	PHX	R	49	18	14	32	5	0.65
37	Ryane Clowe	SJS	L	82	19	38	57	0	0.7
38	Devin Setoguchi	SJS	R	70	20	16	36	0	0.51
39	David Perron	STL	L	82	20	27	47	-10	0.57
40	Brad Boyes	STL	R	82	14	28	42	1	0.51
41	David Backes	STL	R	79	17	31	48	-4	0.61
42	Steve Downie	TBL	R	79	22	24	46	14	0.58
43	MasonRaymond	VAN	L	82	25	28	53	0	0.65
44	Alexandre Burrows	VAN	L	82	35	32	67	34	0.82
45	Michael Grabner	VAN	R	20	5	6	11	2	0.55
46	Mikael Samuelsson	VAN	R	74	30	23>/s>	53	10	0.72
47	Eric Fehr	WSH	R	69	21	18	39	18	0.57

NHL UFA Season Begins: Do YouThink You Made the Right Decision This Time?

One day to go until NHL free agency season opens. One day until we find out which NHL GMs are crazy with the cash.

I'd like to think that this year's free agency period will reveal a more rational market but I'm sure Sather will prove me wrong with an eleventy-billion dollar offer to Cammalleri only to be outdone by a lifetime contract for Gaborik from Charles Wang.

There are a few big name players out there who may generate pre-lockout Tkachuk money, but aside from Bouwmeester, Marian "exploding groin" Gaborik, the Sedins and I guess Mike Cammelleri, it's certainly not a very impactful group of free agents.

Leafs and the Cap

The Leafs have committed about $18.4 million to 11 forwards (not including Grabovski who's a RFA). Seven d-men take up a further $19.875 and $4 million goes to Toskala.

That adds up to a $42.275 cap hit for 19 roster spots, leaving Burke with loads of flexibility - about $13 million worth - for two forwards and a back-up goalie.

If you're keeping score at home, that's about $5M per forward with a $1M deal for a back-up or what Pat Hickey of the Montreal Gazette terms "Up Against the Cap"

The challenge in allocating that $13+ million in cap space is keeping an eye on salary commitments over the next few years when the cap is expected to decrease.

Roster Review

Let me be perfectly clear here: I have no idea what Brian Burke is going to do. I have no sense of which players are on the trading block, which players - if any - are at risk of being waived and which players - other than Schenn - are untouchable.

But why let something minor like facts get in the way?

Part of the Leafs' UFA activities are likely to be driven by Grabovski. If he can't be signed to a reasonable contract or in the event he wins an arbitration case against the Leafs, I'm certain he'll be gone.

The Leafs do have plenty of centres, but without Grabovski they will be running Stajan, Bozak, Hanson, Mitchell as their top four. A softy, two rookies and sophomore 4th liner. This is not the stuff dreams, or anything other than mediocre hockey teams, are made of.

The Leafs are also rather shallow down the right side. Mayers and Stempniak are the only two RWs on the team. FML.

On D, the Leafs appear to have a full set; however, the only real assets this team can move are Kaberle and Kubina. I fully expect at least one, if not both of them to be traded.

Balancing the Roster: Prediction Time

With those potential roster changes and limitations in mind, here's my best, uniformed, unimaginative guess as to what UFA season will mean for the beloved Blue and White.

The Leafs will target a veteran centre for a two year deal to provide some on-ice leadership and show Hanson and Bozak how it's done (while also sheltering the kids from the tough minutes). I'd guess one of Marchant, Morrison, Moen, or Pahlsson will be in the Blue and White. Pahlsson, given his age (31) and success with the Hawks is the least likely of this group to be signed.

There are very few UFA options at right wing. I wouldn't be surprised if Burke brings in Bertuzzi for one last kick at the can (resulting in about 302,849 people threatening to quit cheering for the Leafs, 19,283 "threw up in my mouth" remarks and 4,741 conspiracy theories involving Dominic Moore being traded last spring).

I also suspect Burke will target a RW with a mean streak who can address Burke's concerns about the Leafs being push-overs. Colton Orr is a UFA RW who might not need much of a bump on his $550K salary to land with the Leafs. Chris Neil might be another option, but he has a tendency of not wanting to fight when playing in the ACC.

If Kaberle or Kubina are traded, I'll go out on a limb and suggest that Burke will pursue Francois Beauchemin with a substantial contract or offer a vet like Brett Hedican a short-term deal to bring in a veteran presence who can be dumped once some of the younger Leaf D (Stralman, Gunnarson) have shown they can make the jump to the NHL in a year or two.

To provide veteran guidance on D, I'd also love to see Chris Chelios join the Leafs on one big condition: Chelios and Burke have to co-host a weekly televised media scrum/ panel discussion each and every week. I'd sign Chelios to Jason Blake like numbers to make that happen.

In nets, if Jonas Gustafsson signs elsewhere, I have no freakin clue what the Leafs will do. I have no idea if they'll pursue a back-up via free agency, trade, or an RFA sheet to Josh Harding.

24 hours to go...can't wait for the Leafs' inactivity to begin.

It took a Tattooed Boy from Birkenhead

There was a time (roughly 1979 to 2008ish) when the only thing more porous than the Leafs' defence was the Leafs' front office.

Every move the Leafs made: management changes, upping concession prices, free agent signings, internecine board squabbles, waiver moves, logo changes, likely even mascot issues, appeared in the media at least five days prior to being officially confirmed by MLSE.

Now, sometimes an organization needs to float a trial balloon or two to soften the news before it hits (the McCabe - Van Ryn trade is a case in point). But the Leafs went way beyond trial balloons. For decades this organization was like a fingerless Dutch boy, unable to stop even the smallest leak.

How times have changed.

Joe Nieuwendyk started interviewing with the Dallas Stars three weeks ago. The news didn't break until Dallas announced he'd been hired.

This week the Leafs signed three prospects. Again, the news didn't break until the Leafs put out a press release.

Burke is actively trying to move up in the draft. The only rumours that have emerged to date (Kaberle and Schenn for the #2 pick) were addressed personally by Burke within hours of the news being reported. Fold in his recent appearance on the Watters show and you've got a GM who's shooting down the media as if they were Sonny Corleone in a toll booth.

I'm not a trade rumours kind of guy, so I love this new organizational silence. Others may differ.

In 30+ years of following this club, I can't recall a time when news from Leaf-land broke after the fact or was so controlled (although I likely wasn't paying that close attention to media trends as a six year old when Roger Neilson was behind the bench).

Perhaps it's just a coincidence that when Peddie was removed from hockey operations the leaks stopped.

The draft is less than three weeks away, it will be interesting to see if the controlled flow of information from the Leafs can be maintained. Moreover, it will be fascinating to see how the media adapt their approach to covering the Blue and White.

With so many reporters on the beat and so many Leaf fans clamouring for information, I don't think the cone of silence can be maintained. But I am enjoying it while it lasts...

The Cost of Trading Up

When asked about his plans for the upcoming NHL draft, GM Brian Burke was about as circumspect and quiet as a six year old kid who’s had three espressos, two helpings of cake, and was on his way to get his first puppy.

Burke claims he wants John Tavares and he doesn’t care who knows it.

According to the roughly 4,268 media experts assigned to cover the Leafs, the cost of moving up in the draft from Toronto’s #7 slot to #1 or #2 varies from the Leafs’ first and second round picks to RFA Mikhail Grabovski to a package of Tomas Kablerle and Luke Schenn (that’s one way to cover the waterfront).

A juicy sub-plot to all of this has Tampa’s money woes hooking up with the Leafs deep pockets in a match made in hard-cap heaven. The most common rumour has Ryan Malone and his $17M contract as the lead item in a Leafs-Bolts swap.

Given the broad range of predictive costs for the Leafs to move up, I thought I’d take a look at first round picks traded over the past ten years to see what type of package it has traditionally required to move into Tavares territory.

The 1999 draft is a great place to start as it’s the draft where Burke made a series of moves to land the Sedins. Of note, the 4th overall pick in ’94 was traded so many times that the Rangers really should have drafted a relative of Gary “Suitcase” Smith.

Here are the trades involving high first round picks that I could find (I tried to keep it to the top 10ish draft picks). It’s certainly not an exhaustive or complete list by any means, but it hopefully provides some context and relative historical costs for a team looking to move from the seventh pick to first or second overall…

Canucks Acquire	Chicago Acquires
1999 1st round pick (4th overall)	2000 1st round pick (11th overall) Bryan McCabe

Canucks Acquire	Lightning Acquires
1999 1st round pick (1st overall)	1999 1st round pick (4th overall) 1999 3rd round picks (75 and 88th)

Thrashers Acquire	Canucks Acquire
1999 1st round pick (1st overall)	1999 1st round pick (2nd overall) 2000 conditional 3rd round pick

Rangers Acquire	Lightning Acquire
1999 1st round pick (4th overall)	2000 1st round pick (8th overall) 2000 3rd round pick (74th overall) Dan Cloutier Niklas Sundstrom

Flames Acquire	Rangers Acquire
1999 1st round pick (11th overall) Marc Savard	1999 1st round pick (9th overall) 1999 3rd round pick Jan Hlavac

Islanders Acquire	Ligthning Acquires
2000 1st round pick (5th overall) 2000 4th round pick (105th overall) 2000 7th round pick (202nd overall)	Kevin Weekes Kristian Kudroc 2001 2nd round pick (31st overall)

Avalanche Acquire	Carolina Acquires
2000 1st round pick (14th overall) 2000 2nd round picks (47th, 63rd) Noalan Pratt	Sandis Ozolinsh 2000 2nd round pick (32nd overall)

Senators Acquire	Islanders Acquire
2001 1st Round Pick (2nd overall) Zdeno Chara Bill Muckalt	Alexei Yashin

Columbus Blue Jackets Acquire	Florida Panthers Acquire
2001 1st round pick (1st overall)	2002 1st round pick (3rd overall) Option to swap 2003 1st round picks

Philadelphia Acquires	Lightning Acquire
2002 1st round pick (4th overall)	Ruslan Fedetenko 2002 2nd round picks (34th and 52nd)

Florida Acquires	Calgary Acquires
2002 1st round pick (9th)	2002 1st round pick (10th) 2002 4th round pick (99th)

Florida Acquires	Rangers Acquire
2002 1st round pick (10th) 2002 2nd round pick (40th) 2003 4th round pick (116th) Igor Ulanov Filip Novak	Pavel Bure2002 2nd round pick (33)

Philadelphia Acquires	Phoenix Acquires
2003 1st round pick (11th overall) 2002 second round pick (52nd)	Daymond Langkow

Penguins Acquire	Florida Acquires
2003 1st round pick (1st overall) 2003 3rd round pick (73rd)	2003 1st round pick (3rd overall) 2003 2nd round pick (55th)

Carolina Acquires	Blue Jackets Acquire
2004 1st round pick (4th overall)	2004 1st round pick (8th overall) 2004 2nd round pick (59th overall)

San Jose Acquires	Atlanta Acquires
2005 1st round pick (8th overall)	2005 1st round pick (12th overall) 2005 2nd round pick (49th overall) 2005 7th round pick (207th overall)

Rangers Acquire	Atlanta Acquires
2005 1st round pick (12th overall)	2005 1st round pick (16th overall) 2005 2nd round pick (41st overall)

San Jose Acquires	Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire
2007 1st round pick (13th overall) 2007 2nd round pick (44th overall) 2009 4th round pick	Vesa Toskala Mark Bell

San Jose Acquires	St. Louis Acquires
2007 1st round pick (9th overall)	2007 1st round pick (13th overall) 2007 2nd round pick (44th overall) 2008 3rd round pick (87th overall)

Islanders Acquire	Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire
2008 1st round pick (7th overall) 2008 3rd round pick (68th overall) 2009 2nd round pick	2008 1st round pick (5th overall)

Nashville Acquires	Islanders Acquire
2008 1st round pick (7th overall)	2008 1st round pick (9th overall) 2008 2nd round pick (40th overall)

What can we learn from all of these trades?

• That it’s a shame Burke can’t call on GMs such as Mike Milbury (man, that Yashin trade looks even worse with time), Rick Dudley (a 5th overall for Kevin Weekes and a 4th for Ruslan Fedetenko?) or good old JFJ (Toskala and Bell for a 1st, 2nd and a 4th.)


• Burke needs to talk Sandis Olzonish out of retirement. He’s the only guy on the list who was traded twice for a top 10 pick


• With all the variables involved (depth of draft, rank of picks exchanged, organizational need) it's difficult to determine a cost for the Leafs to move up into the top two, but historically the cost has been a swap of first round pick plus some combination of 2nd and 3rd round picks and lesser quality players


• Kaberle and/or Schenn seems to be an overpayment to get into the Tavares/Hedman sweepstakes.

The bigger challenge for Burke may be the off-ice side of the deal. Both the Isles and Bolts are having financial issues. The economic decline and shrinking salary cap means high draft picks and young prospects are more valuable than ever.

With the Isles potentially on the move, in need of a marquee player, and holding the #1 overall draft pick for the first time since 2000 (and just the fourth time in franchise history) I doubt that there’s a deal to be made in Nassau County.

Tampa and that number 2 pick may be a different story...I just hope if a deal is made it's along the lines of the Penguins - Panthers deal in 2003 or the Canes-CBJ trade in 2004.

**update**
It just struck me that when Burke traded up from from 11th to 4th in 1999, he dealt a promising young defenceman who had been acquired by the previous GM. How long until we see Simmons, WCH or Cox weigh in with a "history repeats" piece with Schenn as the cornerstone of Burke's draft day manouverings, just as McCabe was in 1999?

Fifteen steps, then a sheer drop

The NHL trade deadline is exactly eight weeks away and the Leafs have finally made their first move under Burke.

Gak. It's a 6th rounder for Brad May.

I do belive I called this one back on November 12 although I was only aiming for a cheap and easy punchline. The odds of a sixth rounder turning into a NHLer are pretty small, although it's likely about the same odds that May will do anything of note for the Leafs before he hits UFA status in June.

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that this move will generate more speculation into Brian Burke's intentions and efforts than the Kennedy assasination (Conspiracy A Go-Go really is the ultimate source on all things JFK) and the future of the North American auto industry combined.

With that in mind, I wanted to post two things today.

The first is the limited information I could find regarding no-trade (NTC) and no-movement clauses (NMC) on the Leafs that Burke will have to deal with.

The second was cap formulas to get a better understanding of how a trade might go down.

NTCs and NMCs

I've been hoping one of the 173 people that cover the Leafs full-time as a paid gig might look into this, maybe call the team, the agents for Hagman, Kaberle and Kubina or send an email to the NHLPA, I know I'm talking crazy, but one can hope...

This is what I was able to turn up from NHLSCAP, old radio interviews with JFJ and searches through the Globe and Star. Only three players on the Leafs appear to have trade limitations:

Niklas Hagman - has a N0-Movement Clause for the first year of his contract with the Leafs. The clause expires after year one.

Tomas Kaberle - has a No-Trade Clause. It's believed that if (let's face it: when) the Leafs miss the playoffs, there is a window in the summer during which Kaberle can be traded without his consent. If it's the same time period as identified in Kubina's contract, the trade window is July 1 to August 15. Sadly, that's 10 days after the entry draft.

Pavel Kubina - has a modified No-Trade Clause. According to various sources, he can only be traded to a list of pre-specified teams (no word on who submits the list or the number of teams it includes/excludes). Last year, there was a window between between July 1 and August 15 where we could have been traded without his consent, it's not clear if that was a one-time window or if it opens every summer if the Leafs don't make the playoffs.

I could find no other references to any of the other Leafs having NMCs or NTCs.

Cap Space, Cap Hits and Further Evidence That Math is Hard

The second challenge facing Burke as he tries to transform the Leafs is the lack of trading partners with cap space.

With nearly a third of the league hard against the cap and another third up against self-imposed budget limits, the Leafs are likely going to have to take on near dollar-for-dollar salary commitments in order to complete a trade. (Not to make things un-necessarilyl complicated but the NHL salary cap is actually calculated on a daily basis. Team's cannot exceed a per day salary limit of $296,858.64. Nik Antropov, for example, would cost a team $10,732.98 per day in cap space.)

In short: Leafs Nation can dream of picks and prospects, but the reality is most trades are likely going to bring back some ugly contracts.

What's with the post title? Click here.

Come back, my little piece of mind

Tomas Kaberle was benched during the first period against the Coyotes last night.

Kaberle's post-game reaction can be watched here - 7th video clip on the right.

You'll notice some Clinton-esque frown lines on the young Czech and a pretty interesting nervous tic at the 1:25 mark when he's asked about going minus four, like he's doing his best David Brent impression.

Ron Wilson's remarks on the matter can be watched here - 6th video clip on the right.

Kaberle questioning starts about 25 seconds in and Berger provides further ammo for Wilson's contention that the media ask dumb questions at the 1:42 mark.

###

The biggest, and perhaps most important, challenge facing the Leafs this season is getting Kaberle back on track.

With his age and reasonable salary, Kaberle could be an essential part of the rebuild in Toronto, but only if he can find his old game.

Conversely, if he's going to be traded for much-needed young talent, the Leafs need to ensure they maximize their return. And that's something Burke is going to have a hard time doing if Kaberle is watching games from the bench and pressbox and going -3 each time he straps on the blades.

Team Softness = Injuries?

At the conclusion of last year's season, JFJ and MLSE threw around the meme that the Leafs "lost the most man games in the NHL due to injury" like JFJ threw around no-movement and no trade clauses.

At the time, I had a big problem with that that statement as:

1. I hate excuses (I think what-ifs and excuses were the cornerstones of the JFJ era)
2. If you look at the bulk of last year's injuries, they were to fringe players (Wozniewski was 17% of the total; 4th liners and Marlies were another 22%)
3. Good teams find ways to win, even when their big guys are hurting

What I didn't stop to consider was why the Leafs were so banged up.

After getting physically manhandled by Washington two nights in a row, the Leafs are once again threatening to run away with the injury title. It struck me that maybe the Leafs suffer so many injuries because they're a soft team.

Last year it was a sea of white shirts staring at their skate laces after Janssen laid out Kaberle.

The last two nights nobody laid a finger on Erskine and Eminger and the questionable hits (and one lovely end of game spear) kept on coming. Poni and Steen are both out as a result and White and Antropov were lucky to avoid the IR...

I'm far too lazy to crunch the numbers, but it would be interesting to see how many of the man games lost over the past 100+ games were the result of other teams playing big while the Leafs played small...

The Missing Years

Like pucks lazily drifting past Andrew Raycroft, the reasons for JFJ to be fired are almost too many to count.

The surprise isn't that JFJ’s teams will set a Leaf record for futility by missing the playoffs for three straight years.

The surprise isn’t that a team tagged by its coach as his most talented ever and positioned for a Stanley Cup run is mired in 27^th and on the cusp of a lottery pick.

The surprise isn’t that JFJ took a 100 point franchise and turned it into a soft, underperforming team, handcuffed it with long-term contracts, maxed out the cap and then stripped of its few assets for spare parts.

The surprise is that despite of all this, JFJ lasted as long as he did.

The man was the GM of my favourite team for five years. For half a decade, I watched him run a franchise I’ve followed all of my life and I still don’t have a clue what he was trying to do.

He arrived heralding the stockpiling of picks, but in five years, he traded the teams’ top pick three times and the second pick twice.

He spoke about a new era in developing talent, yet his top pick is playing four minutes a night in the NHL instead of getting big minutes in the minors.

I know that he liked to roll the dice. JFJ habitually sought to acquire high-risk high-reward players like Lindros, Allison, Raycroft, and O’Neill. And in every single case, the risk won. Under JFJ there was never a reward in Leaf land.

For every good contract he signed – Kaberle, Antropov, Poni, Sundin – he signed a bad one: Belfour, Domi, Blake, Kubina, McCabe, Tucker.

People claim his true talent was an eye for waiver wire pick-ups, landing Devereaux, Kilger and Moore. But for every fourth line surprise, there was a fourth line bust: Czerkawski, Pohl, Battaglia, Newbury, Suglabov.

Want to measure his supposed ability to assess talent? Count the number of JFJ acquisitions who can no longer find work in the NHL: Allison, Battaglia, Belfour, Berg, Czerkawski, Green, Khavanov, Lindros, O’Neill, and Slugablov.

I dare anyone to find a comparable list of post-lockout busts signed by a single GM.

In the end, he may be a great guy, a wonderful father and husband. He may have been classy when he knew his time had come, but he set the team I love back years. His incompetence or inability to stand up to the board (or some deadly combination of both) has handcuffed this club for years to come. And for that, I am glad that he’s gone.

He left with the media remarking on his class and his ability to keep his head up. His image ironically buffed by the same mouth breathers and one-fingered typists who called for his head and spent the last month in a daily vigil outside the MLSE boardroom door waiting for the blue and white smoke signaling a new Pope Leafs GM.

JFJ often said he was a reflection of his record, and that’s likely the only spot that he and I will ever agree. If ever there was a truly .500 GM – a man that won as often as he lost – JFJ is it.

Do the Collapse

I hope all of you had a wonderful holiday season and a great New Year.

The only thing I managed to do over the holidays was grow a beard. (Well, it might not constitute a beard - I just haven’t shaved since Christmas Eve). Somewhat shockingly my newly hirsute chin hasn’t brought the Leafs the expected luck. Perhaps this facial hair thing only works in the playoffs…

This Leafs team and organization still leaves me cold; such a culture of losing that seems to be getting more and more ingrained...since this team loves to cough up the last minute goal and throw away points, I thought I’d have a look at who Coach Mo has been tapping for ice time in critical late-game situations – specifically those tied /close games versus Carolina, Tampa, the Islanders and Tampa again.

The Leafs picked up four points from this series of games when they should have easily walked away with at least six if not more. Looking at line combinations, I would suggest in at least two of those games it was the Leafs poor line changes/match-ups that cost them the game and the points. Keep that in mind come March when the Leafs are desperately in need of points and chasing that last playoff spot.

After looking at who's on the ice with the game on the line, the critical question I'd like to ask (or better yet, have answered is): Is the inability to get the right guys on the ice at the right time a failure of the coaching staff or do the Leafs simply not have enough depth to hide certain weak ES guys (Tucker, Wellwood, Blake) in late game situations?

I’ll let you read on and then decide…

December 18 Leafs v. Hurricanes

With just under 2 minutes to go in a 2-0 game, Maurice ices what has arguably been the Leafs best forward line, while Gill has been strong on D this year…

White
Gill
Steen
Stajan
Devereaux

Unfortunately, Caroline cashes one in to make it 2-1.

Maurice comes back with arguably his top 5 man unit:

Kaberle
Kubina
Ponikarovski
Sundin
Antropov

And the Canes score off the bad turnover/cough-up by Poni who was staring down an open net…if I were behind the bench (and lord help Leaf fans if that were the case) I’d likely roll the lines the exact same way…

December 20 Leafs v. Tampa

Two nights later, the Leafs and Bolts are tied 1-1 on the road late in the game and Maurice rolls out:

Kubina
Kaberle
Blake
Wellwood
Tucker

You can blame Kubina’s broken stick all you want (and hey, the Leafs and all of their spokespeople sure did) but the fact is Kaberle covered for Kubina and broke up the ensuing rush. It was Blake’s soft turnover at the Leafs’ blue line (remember that) coupled with Tucker’s failure to cover his man that gave Lecavalier the chance to put the puck in the back of the net.

If I were coach, that forward line wouldn’t see the ice at ES or PK when there’s less than five minutes remaining in the game. Tucker is murder at ES, Wellwood is a creative playmaker, but couldn’t go into a corner if he lived in a square and Blake leads the league in turnovers. I really don’t see how this is a winning combination. I would love to know what Maurice was thinking here…

December 26 Leafs v. Islanders

It’s overtime, four on four, tie game. Leafs have just come off a PP that generated lots of chances so Kubina and Kaberle aren’t available to Maurice. The Leafs change on the fly, sending out:

White
Strahlman
Wellwood
Blake

Gill isn’t the fastest skater, but I’m still very surprised Maurice would go with a rookie and little-man White at that point in the game. What makes this line change especially questionable is the forward paring – the Leafs smallest/greenest D with the two softest and smallest forwards in Wellwood and Blake. I don’t understand this pairing at all, especially given the forward's presence on the ice for the winning (losing goal) in the final minute against Tampa in just the previous game.

So what happens? Blake turns the puck over at the Isles’ blue line (quelle surpise!) the Leafs have a soft back-check and Comrie pots the winner off a rebound.

Of note - the Stajan, Steen, Devereaux line doesn’t see a single second of ice during OT…once more, would love to know if any of the media horde questioned the coach on his decision to play small in the extra frame.

The Leafs go on to sleep through a game in Philly and get positively smoked by the Rangers before going up against the cellar-dwelling Lightning on January 1, 2008.

With the Leafs up by one going into the third, Maurice shortens his bench. Belak, Bell, Tlusty get a single shift at the three minute mark and that’s it for them. (Good thing Bell was part of that Toskala trade and is under contract for one more year at $2M+…).

With a minute to go, Maurice reunites the Steen, Stajan, Devereaux line, which had been broken up for this game (Steen played with Blake and Sundin; Stajan played with Tucker and Kilger). Tampa pots an odd one off a deflected long-shot and the game goes to OT and the shoot-out.

I think this was a good call by Maurice, as that line has been very dependable and it was a bit of an odd goal that tied it up…thankfully he kept Wellwood in the press box and Tucker and Blake didn’t see the ice in the final three minutes of the game.

To sum up: by my estimation, that makes Maurice 2 for 4 in terms of managing his bench during critical moments of these four games, which isn’t good enough.

Admittedly, these odd coaching decisions are nothing new. In game one, Maurice sent Tucker out in OT against the Heatley line when the Leafs had the last change at home. But by now, you’d think the coaching staff would have seen enough of Tucker, Blake and Wellwood to know that they shouldn’t be on the ice at ES at critical points in the game. While I’m hopeful the club has learned from those games in Tampa and Carolina (though I really doubt it).

Perhaps we'll get another chance to see the Leafs try to match lines against the Pens tonight...hopefully Tucker and Blake can avoid lining up against Sid and Malkin.

A Different Approach

I don't mean to harp on the media contingent that covers the Leafs, but coming off the biggest win of the season you'd think some of the post-game coverage would include a modicum of insight or analysis into what the Leafs did differently Saturday night.

To my eyes, it looked like Coach Maurice moved away from his 2 man forecheck system and used a more conservative 1-2-2 approach. The extra forwards would cycle in if the Leafs gained possession or could clog up the neutral zone to take away the Sens' speed while providing more support for the oft-criticized Leaf D.

Two other big changes - McCabe and Kaberle were reunited and Maurice dramatically shortened his bench. The top 4 D played the vast majority of the game. Woz was limited to a season low seven minutes of ice-time and Kronwall logged 12 while McCabe played a whopping 30 minutes (and turned in his best game of the season so far).

If any of the dozens of media folks that routinely cover the Blue and White did ask the coaches or players about the short bench or the modified forecheck, the answers certainly didn't make it into any of the post-game coverage I saw.

It's too bad as I love to know the thinking/strategy behind the Leafs' big win and, more importantly, if this is a sign of things to come from the club.

The Devil's Advocate

One of the things that I hope this blog offers is an alternative to what you can get in the papers, on sports radio and from the TSN's and Sportsnets of this world.

I'd like to think of it as a really engaging conversation among people who love hockey. And like any good conversation it will have funny parts, controversial bits, occassional lulls (well maybe more than the occassinal one) and even disagreements. I'd also like to think that this space moves above and beyond the two-dimensional qualities and false dichotomies that marr so much sports coverage and so many exchanges (yeah, I know the Leafs suck, thanks for posting).

With that in mind, I really wanted to know what a fan of the Devils made of the Kaberle hit (as Winnie the Pooh says to Tigger in one of my daughter's books, "Good manners are mostly about looking at things from someone else's point of view.") so I fired an email to Tom at The Out Route (he and I have exchanged music tips over at Glorious Noise for years) and asked him if he wanted to send a paragraph or two my way.

He did, and here it is:

OK, let’s get this out of the way: I’m a Devils fan. I’m the enemy.

But take pause, Leafs fans, before you sling your iBarbs into my skin. I know we haven’t been at harmony over the recent years. We dislike you because you remind us a little too much of the Rangers, with your tradition, free-spirited spending, and blue jerseys. You dislike us because we win Stanley Cups and you don’t. Kidding, kidding. I just had to get that one out of the way.

I know that tensions are high after Tomas Kaberle’s injury, and that someone defending Cam Janssen is probably the last person you’d want to hear (read?) from. ANYWAY, I ask that you look at me today not as a Devils fan, but as a beacon of logic.

Was Janssen’s hit illegal? It was, in the sense that it came just a teensy bit too late. When watching the play develop, there seems an eternity between the pass and the check in which anxiety sets in, because you can see disaster ahead and are helpless to stop it. It’s that feeling you get watching a foolish victim in a horror movie open the closet door (the killer is always in the closet) or when a rollercoaster reaches the top of its initial ascent. In reality, it was 1.2 seconds. Certainly late, and certainly illegal by NHL rules.

In my mind, that’s the extent of Janssen’s wrongdoings. Go back and check the tape – the elbow is down, the players are facing each other, Janssen is gliding and not striding. All the benchmarks of a good, clean hit. The rest is circumstantial. Kaberle wasn’t looking and thus had no way to brace himself which, combined with the proximity to the boards, made the hit about 10 times more devastating than it would have been under normal circumstances. Because of the injury, I think a game misconduct or one-game suspension would have sufficed. But honestly, Janssen’s infraction typically costs a player two minutes. Suspensions should come with intended malice, I just don’t see that being the case here. I mean, it wasn’t like he intentionally elbowed Scott Niedermayer in the face at the end of a certain second-round playoff game (cough. cough.).

The logical reader now asks him or herself this: Well, smarty-pants, even if, fundamentally, Janssen’s hit was legal, why did he throw it? It wasn’t necessary in the context of play. That’s a good question. And I know you assume that it was intentional because of the role Janssen plays on the team and because of people’s natural instinct to think their worst of their peers. I’ve got no factual evidence to dissuade you, but I can say with a straight face that Janssen is not a dirty player.

I hate the term “goon.” It’s derogatory towards a group of hockey players that help define the sport. Janssen is a role player. His role is to be physical and to bring energy to the ice. He’s also young and on the periphery of this league. With the new rules, players of his ilk are being eradicated. He’s fighting (literally) for a job, and he gets precious few minutes on the ice to prove his worth. In this instance, he got overzealous and made a mistake. He is not the type of player to deliberately injure a player, and he showed genuine concern for Kaberle’s well-being and contrition after the game. It should be noted he hasn’t protested the check or tried to defend himself. The Devils have always been unapologetically physical, which may or may not be boring to watch, but they’ve never been a dirty team. I wouldn’t support one.

I’ve heard a lot of hyperbole about the hit, using it as a way to blast the NHL – because, I’m sure even we can agree, the only time the U.S. media touches hockey is to complain about its physical nature – and throwing Janssen to the lions. Frankly, I just don’t get it. This isn’t to undermine Kaberle’s injury – I hate to see anyone injured, and I hope Kaberle’s recovery is of the speediest kind. But to me it seems that this pales in significance to the Todd Bertuzzi and Marty McSorely incidents, as well as the one earlier this season that sparked a brawl between Buffalo and Ottawa.

The exaggerated punishment is a clear attempt at further eradicating the physical element of hockey, and that’s something I can’t stand for. Forget about Janssen. Doesn’t everyone love a good fourth-liner? I’m sure the Leafs will want revenge, and though I don’t necessarily believe the hit warrants it, I’m not objecting because I understand that’s the way hockey is, and that’s how I like it.

If we are going to be suspending players for hits with clean intentions, we are changing one of hockey’s core functions. Players will forever be afraid to throw a good body check because of the potential ramifications. That’s worse than bigger nets, shootouts, or tighter jerseys. It’s castrating the sport as we know it. Janssen’s suspension is the starting point on a slippery slope. If we continue on this path, the NHL will lose the roguish charm that attracted us all. It will be run with an iron first, a place where unintentional high sticks are sins and fights are viewed with the same affection as a malevolent tumor. The NHL will become a Nazi state, or something far worse – the NBA.



Feel free to post your comments here or to visit Tom over at The Out Route...

The Hit and the Quip

The Hit

The Janssen hit came 1.33 seconds after Kaberle moved the puck to Cola and the play had clearly moved up ice (I didn't time it, but the low-talking ever quiet Steve Kouleas and his partner Ludzik had telestrated the entire play on the Score).

Janssen barely left his feet on the hit and it didn't look to me like an explicit elbow. Had Kabs not been admiring his pass, he wouldn't have been so vulnerable. The majority of the damage seemed to be done when Kaberle slammed into the boards after absorbing the initial hit.

I wonder what Leafs Nation would be saying this morning if the skates were on the other foot- if it was Wade Belak finishing a hit on Colin White? Would there be calls for suspensions? How would Leafs fans feel about the refs not calling it - a sign of incompetence or further defence for the guy in the blue and white? Would Maurice have put Belak back on the ice for another shift?

I'd like to see Janssen handed a multi-game suspension for this. It might be my Leaf blood talking, but it certainly seemed like a late hit with some intent to injure thrown in for good measure.

There really needs to be a disincentive administered by the league for these late hits before someone is seriously injured - either from the event or the retribution.

**UPDATED** And three games it is for Mr. Janssen...

The Quip

I'm not a huge fan of Jeff O'Neill (although 20 goals for his $1.5M salary is great value) - but I'm hoping JFJ resigns him next year just so we can get some refreshing quotes.

On the Janssen hit,

O'Neill called Janssen a "meathead" after the game, adding: "It's just more proof that some of these younger idiots in our league have no respect for what's going on out there. [Janssen] is probably a classic example, and the best defenceman in the NHL -- I think -- will be out for awhile. It's disappointing."

On the missed high-stick against Sundin:

"It's not like he is not noticeable out there, he's the best player on the ice, he's six-foot-five and he gets high-sticked in front of four referees. It's just kind of weird that there's not a call."

On Kerry Fraser and the myster goal:

"What's concerning to me is I don't know how [Fraser] makes that call with such conviction. It's a terrible call and it's unacceptable at this time of the year. The replay is clearly evident that it's not f---ing goalie interference. If it is goalie interference, call a penalty. We have to answer to people when we screw up, but I don't know what these guys have to do. It's a goddamn joke to be honest with you."

Sure beats the usual tripe we get in post game reports...

Mediocre D

I was all set to post a snappy entry on the Leafs decreasing window for in-game success: they can't mount a comeback and they can't protect a lead, unfortunately the stats got in the way.

Leafs have the 5th best winning percentage when leading after the first period and the tenth best winning percentage when leading after the second period.

Although the way the Blue and White have been playing the last few weeks, it's the leading after the third period that we members of Leafs Nation should be concerned about.

=========

I posted earlier (ranted?) about the Leafs having the most expensive defence in the NHL. Well, the Leafs D are not the most expensive, but it is close.

Based on the data collected from NHL Team Salaries, the Leafs D are the second highest paid group in the league. The Leafs have allocated $18.708M in salary to their 7 D-men (McCabe, Kaberle, Kubina, Gill, Belak, Bell, White).

For that $18M the Leafs have given up 88 goals against, 26th overall in the NHL.

The LA Kings have the most expensive group of D-men in the league. They've spent $19.944M on their top 7: Blake, Norstrom, Tverdovsky, Miller, Sopel, Visnovsky, and Weaver.

The Kings, and that most expensive Defence in the league, are 29th in goals against giving up 97 goals in 29 games. They only have to get a little worse to catch the last place Flyers.

Best bang for the buck? The San Jose Sharks - fourth best goals against, fourth cheapest D.

(FWIW, a rough calculation of what an NHL team allocates on a complete set of D is $12.603 Million. Please note - this is a rough calculation: three teams have just six D listed; five teams have eight D and the balance - 22 teams - list 7 Dmen; totals didnt include injuries to Leopold, Berrard or Mark Stuart.)

The Six Million (plus or minus) Million Dollar Man

Bryan McCabe has reportedly signed a five-year deal with the Leafs, which includes a no-trade clause. The details beyond that are a bit sketchy (how great is it that the Leafs own web-site doesn't have any "official news" but does have a wire story from Bristol Connecticut that cites an ESPN report on the McCabe signing?)

Spackling togethter the various rumours, it's reported that McCabe will be earning somewhere between $5 million and $5.8 million a season for the next five years (there’s so much suffering in this world). Other reports have mentioned a non-movement clause, which would prevent McCabe from being waived (or part of an extraordinary rendition?).

When you consider that JFJ didn’t deal McCabe at the deadline and is widely reported as needing to make the playoffs next season in order to keep his job, the fact that he capitulated on all fronts to sign McCabe is about as surprising as Lindros suffering a catastrophic mid-season injury the Sens choking each Spring.

Did JFJ overpay? We’ll have a better sense of that once the other big free agent defensemen are signed this July. Until that date rolls around, here are a few things to consider before we can heap scorn further assess JFJ’s ability to misread the market:

1. If next season’s cap is in the mid to low-40s, the Leafs will have tied up nearly 25% of their salary room in Kaberle and McCabe.
2. Given the status of RFAs and UFAs it’s not a perfect comparison, but let's compare the Leafs salary structure with the four teams that made the semis this year. The salaries of the top 3 Leafs eats about 35% of an estimated mid-40s salary cap; the top 3 Ducks 30%; top 3 Hurricanes 28%; top 3 Oilers 27%; top 3 Sabres 16%.
3. In 2005-2006, teams spent about 39% more time on the power play – a facet of the game at which McCabe excelled.
4. The Leafs had one of the best power plays in the league and still missed the playoffs – clearly this is a team that has to do better at five on five hockey if there’s to be any measure of success in 2006-2007.
5. NHL revenues are largely driven by gate receipts. This season, the average attendance rate was 92%. In 2003-2004 it was 89% and in 2002-2003 it was 90%. There’s no new mega-TV contract on the horizon and ticket prices can only increase a few points a year. It will be interesting to see how GMs with top-loaded payrolls (Hello Mr. Feaster, Mr. Ferguson) adjust in the event that attendance/revenue drops off by 3% or more and the cap shrinks accordingly. Escrow may take care of existing contracts, but those near the cap will have little room to move...

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