Leafs Trade Analysis: Two Loonies for a Twonie

On Sunday, Leafs GM Brian Burke pulled off two trades:

Vesa Toskala and Jason Blake to Anaheim for J.S. Giguere.

Matt Stajan, Niklas Hagman, Jamal Mayers and Ian White for Dion Phaneuf, Frederik Sjostrom and prospect Keith Aulie.

At this point, I've got way more questions than answers...

Anaheim

Giguere for Blake and Toskala is like a twonie for two loonies.

I’m glad Toskala and Blake are gone, but I’m not expecting anything from Giguere. He’s had below average numbers for two-seasons running and is unlikely to improve next year when there’s a further crackdown on the size of goaltending gear.

With little to no goaltending options on the UFA market this summer, Burke has ostensibly bought one more year of slightly below-average goaltending.

Dion Phaneuf

Dion Phaneuf hasn’t progressed as projected or in keeping with his (massive) paycheque.

His goal scoring production has declined every season he’s been in the NHL and he’s struggled the past two seasons.

Many in the game have noted that his play away from the puck is poor and has been resistant to changing his game.

Among NHL d-men, he’s currently 9th in goals scored, 69th in assists and 42nd in points. To put that in perspective, his 22 points put him in a tie with Francois Beauchemin.

On the D-side of the puck, his GA60 is a respectable 2.4, which puts him in the top third of NHL defencmen (73rd among the 212 D-men that have played a minimum 20+ games this year). On the Leafs that would place him behind both Beauchemin (2.13) and Komisarek (1.88).

And the Leafs get all of this for the incredible cap hit of $6.5M through 2014.

Wait.

That can’t be right.

Phaneuf is 73rd in GAON/60. 42nd in Points and he has the 8th highest cap hit among d-men in the league?!?

Wow.

Was Glen Sather a consultant to Sutter on that contract?

Cap Space Moving Forward: 2010-11

At $25M+ the Leafs have a whole lot of dollars tied up on six blue liners next season.

In net, the Leafs have $6M allotted for Giguere while Jonas Gustavsson is an RFA.

Up-front the Leafs have just four guys under contract guys (Kessel, Gustavsson, Sjostrom and Orr) and they’ll cost the club $10.1M in salary with a passel of RFAs and UFAs still to sort out.

Fold in the Darcy Tucker buy-out and the Leafs have $42M+ in committed salaries for 2010-11.

If the cap stays neutral, the Leafs have about $14M to sign 9 forwards and a back-up goalie, which averages out to about $1.4M per signing.

Clearly, something’s got to give here.

The big question, just like every year since the lock-out, is who gets moved from the Leafs blue-line to provide some help up front?

Player Development

Draft and develop has become a bit of a mantra in the NHL. The Leafs don’t really do the former and the latter - development - is where the fall-out from today’s deals could really hit this club.

In an effort to in-fill the forward lines and find some offence, the development curve for all of the Leafs youngsters just got a whole lot steeper.

Hanson, Bozak and Stalberg won’t have the luxury of a year in the “A” with spot duty on the Leafs to develop. They’ll be eating real minutes over the next 30 games.

Given all the holes to fill up front, and the limited resources to do so, there’s also a real chance Nazem Kadri gets a shot a next season right out of the OHL. No AHL development time for the London Knight (and a year of his entry level deal cashed in too).

Of course, the Leafs could run with veteran UFAs on one-year contracts to buy their kids more development time – while that's something I hope the Burke-Nonis brain trust explores, I don't see it happening (I got no proof, just what my guy gut says).

2012: AKA The fine print

Here comes the giant caveat: with the CBA set to expire in 2011, this whole issue of contract hits and cap room could quickly become moot. Phaneuf’s contract, and the Leafs’ salary cap situation, becomes eminently more manageable if there’s any type of luxury tax or an NBA-like luxury tax amnesty provision.

Until then, I'm treating the rest of this season as a 30 game exhibition schedule: the games don't count, it's all about evaluating talent.

Maple Leafs: Time to Face the Music

This morning at breakfast the iPod wasn't charged and I was too slow getting to the radio so I got stuck listening to some really bad music.

As Drive My Soul played in the background (gack!) it struck me that if the Toronto Maple Leafs really want to change their culture, if they really want a fresh start in 2008-'09, a public execution of the MLSE employee in charge of the in-game music programming at the ACC is as good a first step as any. (And how perfect would it be if it turned out Peddie or Tannenbaum was the one that picked Enter Sandman for the Leafs to skate out to?)

Is there anyone out there who thinks the Leafs need to play three Metallica songs each and every night? Does anyone at the game think Marilyn Manson, Bay City Rollers and Wolfmother=hockey? And does Zombie Nation's Kernkraft 400 really say "Toronto Maple Leafs score!" or does it just say: "I could be at any sporting event at any arena in North America."

As an aside, if Stephen Harper really wants a majority government I think the perfect way to harvest support in vote-rich Ontario is to formally ban The Final Countdown (with a full exemption for magicians) and then move on to Cotton Eyed Joe.

Maybe the Leafs need to take a page out of the Jays' playbook (as long as it's not the "missing the playoffs for 15 years" one) and have each Leaf pick their equivalent of the Jays at-bat music. When that Leaf scores, the ACC would play his tune.

The good: seeing the reaction to a Boyd Devereuax goal when one of the artists on his record label get some prime time play down at the ACC.

The bad: about six to eight times a year, we'd see Jason Blake first pump to something like Slowride by Foghat and odds are one of Poni, Grabovski or Antropov would pick Dragostea Din Tei (aka the Numa Numa dance) for their song...(You just know Stajan would pick some emo number and if Steen went with Abba, I'd trade him).

As someone who hasn't bought a new release since M. Ward's Post-War in 2006, I may not be ideally positioned to suggest an alternate play list for Maple Leaf games at the ACC, but anything (anything!) has to be better than the gratuitous use of Nickel Back, Def Leppard, and Linkin Park...

If You're Gonna Stay Show Some Mercy Today

Sport was the main occupation of all of us, and continued to be mine for a long time. That is where I had my only lesson in ethics. – Albert Camus.

Perhaps it’s because the sub-text of all sports is about complying with rules and the notions of fair play, ethics and good sportsmanship that fans often develop the expectation that these same values and attributes can and should be found in the professional athletes themselves.

It would be nice to think that the athletes who show leadership, loyalty and courage on the field of play would demonstrate these same attributes off it.

Unfortunately, for me, there’s far too much evidence to the contrary to carry that expectation very far.

This leads me to Mats Sundin.

I think the main reason why there is such divergent views about Sundin’s future is that one-side of the debate is focusing on the explicit rules as found in the CBA, while the other half focuses on those implicit notions, characteristics and values of sport (e.g. doing what’s “right” for the team).

Further complicating matters is money (it’s always money).

Mats Sundin has led the Leafs in every significant statistical category for over a decade and is arguably one of, if not the greatest, player to have skated for the Blue and White. For this, he has been remunerated exceptionally – staggeringly – well.

But does the size of the pay cheque change the principle issue? Should an employee forgo a contractually bargained right and do something against his explicitly expressed desire because it’s in the best interest of his employer and a nebulous group of people called “fans” simply because he’s been well paid?

My answer is no (and clearly others disagree).

But while we’re on the topic of loyalty and what a player “owes” his team and the fans, I’d like to move away from Mats for a minute and propose something entirely new that I’m sure most Leaf fans can agree with.

I think MLSE should ask Jason Blake and Darcy Tucker to retire for the good of the team (and, let’s face it, the best-interest of many fans).

It certainly would be a “loyal” thing for Blake and Tucker to do. It would avoid the ugly spectacle of buy-outs or trips to the minors and the Leafs would be absolved of two hefty long-term cap hits.

Let’s face it, both of these guys have made millions upon millions of dollars for playing a simple kids’ game. Isn't it time Blake and Tucker put the good of the team before their personal best interests and wishes and just hung up their skates?

As long suffering fans, don’t they owe us that much?

It's the match-ups, stupid

Not to blather on about the last minute shift choices again, especially after an allegedly hard-fought win (I didn't watch the game - I went to see Juno, quite liked it) but what the hell are Blake and Tucker doing on the ice in the final minute trying to protect a 3-2 lead?

Leafs get a last minute change on the fly and somebody wearing a suit and tie and standing behind the bench thought Tucks and Blake were suddenly shut-down forwards? Did an usher from the platinums sneak back there to set up the final line combos?

Bottom five in the PK.

Bottom five in the PP.

Out-shot 14-1 to start the game.

Bad line matching sends the game to OT.

If the new President/GM wants to affect real change, looking behind the bench might not be a bad place to start.

You Say You Want a Revolution?

Went to the Leafs - Blues game last night, we were lucky enough to get my wife's corporate seats. Yup, corporate seats. I've been to four games this year and three of those were as the guest of large corporations on expense accounts. Which brings me back to this crazy concept that somehow Leaf fans are to blame for the current teams' woes.

Last night, I asked the people around me how they got their tickets ($160 reds). All of them are season tickets held by corporations - the guys to my right got their seats from a car dealership (the ticket holder apparently owns four dealerships); the foursome in front of me were from an ad agency; the two to their left were part of a restaurant chain; and the two to my wife's left were held by a big food multinational (who also have a box at the ACC).

This is something that Dave Feschuk picked up on over at the Star today; clearly it's not the average joe that's filling the coffers for MLSE and padding that oh so comfortable bottom line.

Malibu Stacy may tell us that "math is hard" but let's do a little rudimentary accounting.

The ACC has 1020 platinum seats at $400 each, which generates $400K per game (not including the margins from sushi and wine sales).

In the upper bowl there are approximately 3330 Purple Seats at $37 a pop, generating approximately $120K per game. Fold-in the 300 standing room places at $24 each and you've got an extra $7200 - call it $130K.

Time to compare and contrast: the purple dwelling Leafs Nation lunch box crowd is being outspent by the corporations in the platinums by about $3 to $1.

Put another way: one row of platinum seats generates more income for MLSE than all of the standing room tickets combined.

Now factor in 300 luxury suites. I don't know what the original purchase price or seat licensing costs were, but a 42 person suite rents out for $10K per game and a 57 person suite is $13K. The "cheaper" rental is the equivalent of selling 270 tickets up in the purples, more than 10 rows worth of seats.

So if you think refusing to buy the car flag, canceling Leafs TV and declining those $37 purples will make a difference, go for it. I honestly encourage Leaf fans to vote with their wallets. Seriously. After all, maybe Mike Babcock is right, - it is the common fan that's propping this organization up and keeping them from a re-build.

Looking at the numbers I find it very hard to believe it's so.

###

As for the game itself, Tlusty got banged around like it was the first time he played contact hockey, but I'll give him credit for getting up and staying in the thick of things all night. If he could find a second gear or any type of explosive speed he'd be a far more dangerous player. Tlutsy seemed to play the whole game at half-speed (or else his top speed is really poor). He could find the openings, but his lack of secondary speed kept him from been truly dangerous.

The Tucker, Blake, Stajan line really surprised me. Tucker was great on the forecheck (this from a guy who has pushed to trade #16 for years) but he's an absolute pylon defensively. Blake's through the legs back pass happened right in front of us and was amazing.

As I watched Legace stymie the Leafs time after time, I started undergoing serious cognitive dissonance - had JFJ signed Legace as a UFA, the Leafs would still have Rask plus their 2007 1,2,4 picks and likely would have made the playoffs last year. Of course, that would mean JFJ would still be GM giving me chronic heartburn by screwing this team over in new and inventive ways...

chamomile nation

As I watched that debacle tonight, it struck me that maybe someone filled the Leafs' water bottles with some sleepy time tea. The stuff that Maurice has suggested fans stock up on.

I only watched the first two periods. Just like most of the Leafs, I didn't stick around for the third but I'll weigh in anyways...

Is anyone really surprised that the Leafs are 1-3 to start the season? I mean other than those fans who can't quite keep the shift key held done when talking about the Leafs!!!!1

Consider:

The 2006-07 Leafs were 25th in goals against.

The six D who were logged the most minutes for the Leafs last season:
1. McCabe
2. Kaberle
3. Kubina
4. Gill
5. White
6. Colaiacovo

The 6 D logging the most minutes this season:
1. Kaberle
2. Kubina
3. McCabe
4. Gill
5. Wozniewski
6. White

Last season, the Leafs were short handed the 11th most in the NHL. To keep it entertaining, the Leafs ran the PK like an old episode of Show Down, with the space around Raycroft’s glove filling in for the big foam targets. The Leafs PK (which might have benefited had it been coached by Peter Puck) ended up 27th in the NHL in 2006-07.

Top 8 in PK minutes last season:
1. Gill
2. McCabe
3. Kilger
4. Kaberle
5. Kubina
6. Steen
7. Stajan
8. Peca

Top 8 in PK minutes this season:
1. Gill
2. Kubina
3. McCabe
4. Kilger
5. Wozniewski
6. Devereaux
7. Stajan
8. Antropov

For those of you keeping score, you might be noticing a pattern here. In fact, 20 of the 23 players on the Leafs 2006-07 roster returned for the 2007-08 season, as did the entire coaching staff.

So where was this change going to come?

Toskala, Bell and Blake?

Really?

A career back-up, a third-line centre (who's been suspended for almost a fifth of the season) and a small forward (who's just been diagnosed with a form of cancer).

If that's the answer to what ails this club (and here's the question: how do you fix a team with a woeful inability to keep the puck out of their own net, discipline problems and a PK that puts "special ed" back into special teams?) Paul Maurice is going to need to get a plantation worth of chamomile tea for Leafs Nation.