Toronto Maple Leafs: November's When it Matters

I play shinny early Saturday mornings. Good bunch of older guys. The ice is full of their young kids skating laps while we assemble our gear and try to remember to put our jerseys on before our helmets (it's not as easy as it sounds at 6:30 AM).

Each week we look at who showed up, try to pair guys off according to their skill level and then red and yellow pinnies are passed out. We chase the puck for an hour or so and hope the 10 year olds that hit the ice after us don't smirk too much at the old men and the sloppy play.

Recently my side got stuck with a few too many of the guys who struggle on the ice. The teams are usually pretty balanced but we certainly missed the mark that morning. It was so lopsided that after the game our goalie turned to me and said, "Does this mean we get to play dodge ball at practice tomorrow?"

It’s the Goaltending, Stupid.

I haven't been writing much about the Leafs this season because there hasn't been much worth writing about.

It was pretty clear that the big challenge for the club was between the pipes and until the team addressed the goaltending situation they wouldn’t be able to compete. Thin forward corps and poor goaltending is a deadly combination. Giving up four goals a night is only a viable strategy if your team can notch five or six. Yes, the Leafs might have the odd six goal night but there’s going to be three times as many games where it’s a stretch for this team to score one or two.

Without any real offensive punch and unable to score at 5 on 5, it’s not much of a surprise that this team is 1-11.

That said, the Leafs are not as bad as their record and they're certainly not as good as many fans hoped/expected.

I think the main thing fans can take away from the first twelve games is that the pre-season is pretty much meaningless. A month ago, Viktor Stalberg looked like a Calder candidate and, for the first time in a long-time, the Leafs looked like a team with an identity. A dozen games into the real season and Stalberg is with the Marlies while the Leafs have the identity of an amnesiac.

Centre of Attention

Looking ahead, if goalie Jonas Gustavsson is the real deal, the biggest challenge for this team is up the middle.

How far can any team go when their top pivot is Matt Stajan? He might have outstanding comparables for a guy his age, but he’s built for the soft parade not to clash with the top lines of the East.

If the Leafs are to make the most of their high-cost acquisition Phil Kessel they also need to find a centre that can get him the puck. Yeah, Stajan had 40 helpers last year, but too many of those were secondary assists and he also tends to disappear for long stretches at time.

Ideally, the Leafs can land a pivot that can also dominate on the face-off dot. It’s an essential part of an effective PK. Jamal Mayers currently leads the Leafs in shorthanded face-off wins (admittedly with a tiny sample size) having won five of six shorthanded face-offs. The Leafs top three are not faring so: Stajan 52%; Wallin 46%; Primeau 40%. (Minnesota has the best PK in the league and their top three centres have much better results: Belanger 57%; Koviu 54%, Brodziak 43%.) It's hard to kill a penalty when you can't win a face off to get possession of the puck.

This Team Could Be Your Life

It’s November, when the games officially matter. Over the next month Leaf fans will get a chance to see how Kessel has recovered, how he fits into the line-up and if the it looks like a good deal was made to land the high-scoring winger.

We’ll also get a better idea if Gustavsson is the real deal. It’s one thing to look pretty good when you’re an unknown in the league. Once tape of him gets out and teams can isolate and identify his tendencies it may be a whole new game. Conversely, the more games Gustavsson gets under his belt, the quicker he can adapt to his team, their systems and the NHL style of play.

Should be an interesting month of hockey ahead, I certainly hope that the Leafs put up better numbers than October or is two wins in a month too much to ask?

On the Leeds side-streets that you slip down

Before Leaf fans start to panic, one has to wonder what the best case scenario was for this young season. Looking at the strength of competion, I'd say the best this team could have hoped for was to be 2-2-0 in their first four.

The Leafs played well and deserved to win game one against Montreal. It took two bizarre calls and some bad officiating to lose the game against the Sens. Losses to Pittsburgh and Washington shouldn’t surprise anyone.

Now, don’t get me wrong, the Leafs have looked absolutely atrocious in three of their four starts this year.

The team didn’t show up for the Sens, got outclassed by Washington and in the last game against Pittsburgh the Leafs had more turnovers than a Pillsbury factory. (Crosby scored two PP goals from the exact same spot on the ice. He was untouched and unguarded on both plays. Maybe it’s just me, but somebody might want to keep an eye on the #87 out there or maybe Wilson’s coaching cheat sheet mis-spelled Crosby’s name and the leafs weren't sure who to cover.)

I don't know if it's physical, mental or both but Vesa Toskala looks about as comfortable as a woman in burqa a at a Klan rally.

Keeping the Story Straight

Does anyone think management set expectations at a level that’s remotely in line with the talent (or lack thereof) on this club?

The organization said playoffs was their goal and then iced a team with Matt Stajan as the #1 centre and Vesa Toskala as the starting goalie - even though he hasn’t been able to approach the league average save percentage in three years.

Burke also promised an entertaining team. Other than game one against the Habs, I haven’t seen any entertaining hockey - have you?

Remember the old competition in camp theory? You know, the one where guys were going to earn their jobs. Well it turns out the Leafs couldn't get the msessage straight on that front either and some guys earned their starts this year based on last season's play. That would be the same season the team put up 81 points and missed the playoffs for the third year in a row.

A few days ago, Ron Wilson compared public criticism of Vesa Toskala to waterboarding. Your read that right, the Toronto media were metaphorically torturing the goalie.

Tonight the coach decided to throw that same goalie under the bus.

The only consistent thing coming from the Leafs is the stench of incompetence.

Shortcomings and Off-Season Moves

The two biggest issues that dogged the Leafs last year were the penalty kill and goaltending. The Leafs were dead last in both categories.

In the off-season, Burke shuffled the defence - moving out Kubina and bringing in Komisarek, Exelby and Beachemin. He also added Rickard Wallin to the forward mix (as well as pugilist Colton Orr)

In nets, Burke actively pursued the Jonas “The Monster” Gustavsson, who unfortunately is battling injuries and has only started a single game.

Four games into the Season and the Leafs are, once again, dead last in goals against and dead last on the PK.

Until goaltending and special teams play is resolved, this team will remain winless.

Oh, and a question the media horde might want to ask Coach Wilson: what the heck is Wallin doing on the PP?

The Price of Truculence

In his recent make-over of the Leafs, Burke picked up three players who combined for 434 penalty minutes last season.

To put that total in perspective, the entire Carolina Hurricanes roster put up just 786 PiMs and the Red Wings just 810.

The Orr, Exelby, Komisarek trifecta had exactly half of the PiMs taken by the third least penalized club in the NHL the Minnesota Wild.

If the Leafs and their new players are penalized at the same rate as last season, the Leafs will easily be the most penalized team in the NHL racking up over 1400 PiMs.

That works out to an additional 4 minutes in the box each and every game or about 17 penalty minutes a night.

Now I’m not saying that it’s a given that the Leafs are going to lead the league in penalty minutes or that there’s some sort of linear progression or predictive model here. But I am saying that the Leafs are going to be spending far more time in the penalty box in 2009-2010, which may be a huge price to pay for Burke’s much vaunted truculence.

The reason smash mouth hockey worked for Burke in Anaheim was that his Ducks could roll out some of the best PK talent in the league: Pahlsson, Pronger, Beauchemin, Moen and Marchant.

It’s an entirely different story in Toronto.

Since the lockout, the Leafs penalty kill has been ranked 24th; 27th; 29th; and 30th.

If the Leafs continue to kill penalties at their average post-lockout rate of about 78%, this team will need a bigger scoreboard to keep track of the goals against.

The Leafs have about $5M in cap space remaining. They might want to put this toward some solid PK talent.

Komisarek is a good start. He led the Habs in short-handed time on ice (SHTOI) and the Habs put up the 11th best PK in the league.

Exelby? He was fourth among D-men in Atlanta in SHTOI, but Atlanta had the 29th ranked PK in the league.

If the Leafs can’t improve their PK this season, it pretty much won’t matter what other moves Burke makes.

Two Minutes (to midnight)

I was prepping a post on PK performance that's taking a bit longer than I expected (some stuff that should be easy to dig out sure is buried at NHL.com) when I stumbled across this, largely meaningless, factoid: the Ron Wilson coached Maple Leafs are currently the fourth least penalized team in the NHL. You read that right, they are 27th in times shorthanded. Here's the trend line:

2008-09 - 27th most penalized
2007-08 - 17th
2006-07 - 11th
2005-06 - 12th
Lockout
2003-04 - 5th
2002-03 - 1st (woo hoo, Leafs are #1!)

For the first time in a long time this club is actually showing some signs of discipline.

Clearly this isn't what Fletcher had in mind when he traded for Hollwegg, but all things considered it's probably for the best as the PK is dead last and Toskala's sv% when the Buds are a man (or two) down is a chilling .852

Now, this post isn't suggesting I don't want a tough club and I know there's no correlation between times shorthanded and regular season or post-season success. And yes, everyone knows full well Anaheim won the cup as the most penalized team in the league. I just found it interesting that in all the discussion of what Ron Wilson may or may not have accomplished in his first year as coach of the Leafs, this trend hasn't been noted.

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A month or so ago I was contemplating throwing out some Iron Maiden for the title of a post. I ended up going with the Smiths instead and I heard about it in the comments. Because I care so much about my readers (all three of you - hi mum!) I went back to the days of Powerslave for this one (grade 9 if memory serves). It's a track I still have on my iPod right between Radiohead's "2+2=5(The Lukewarm)" and "21 Park Rd." by Bill King (sorry, Canadian Jazz and youtube don't seem to mix).

It's the PK Stupid

Three somewhat related thoughts about the Leafs...

1. David Johnson over at Hockey Analysis has a must read post suggesting that the Leafs really aren't that bad a team, that in fact it's shoddy goaltending that's hurting this club. He correctly points out that the Leafs much maligned D (oh, I've heaped my share text their way - guilty as charged) has done a great job limiting shots (8th overall in the NHL - same as the Devils). On the other side of the blue line, the Leafs are top 10 in scoring.

2. Further to Johnson's post, I'd love to know how much of the Leafs penalty killing woes are attributable to the poor goaltending. As the sporting cliche goes, your goalie is the most important penalty killer. The Leafs are 26th in the PK and 27th in SHG. When you consider they've taken the 7th most penalties in the league, no good can come from this.

3. With the Leafs woes between the pipes and on the PK, the Perrault deal appears curious at best and a total waste of resources at worst.

Perrault played 13 minutes in his first two games, just six minutes against Washington and only 10 against the Sens. (Considering the Leafs had 8 PPs, why is it this face-off specialist only saw about two minutes on the ice with the extra man?)

MLSE coughed up some nice defensive depth in Brendan Bell (the 2003 CHL defenceman of the year and CHL first-team all-star) and a second round pick in a great draft year (2008) for a guy who's logging about 10 minutes a night who doesn't kill penalties and as far as I know can't play net. I'm ok with the sacrificing those two resources, but when you examine the return and when you look at what this club still needs, the opportunity cost is staggering.