The Leafs and Waiver Wire Limits

I don’t often agree with Leafs GM Brian Burke.

I find his stance on head shots deplorable, the majority of his UFA signings questionable, and his bluster tiresome.

The one area I do agree with him: the NHL should not limit the number of post-deadline player call-ups to four.

Sadly, with their loss to Tampa Bay, the Leafs’ season has all but come to an end. The Leafs have to win 10 of their next 12 to have a shot at the post-season. Sure, anything is possible but it’s not exactly probable.

And that’s where this call-up limit comes in.

Matt Lashoff has already cleared waivers and will be with the Leafs on their latest road trip. Rumour has it Nazem Kadri has been called-up from the Marlies to fill Colby Armstrong’s roster spot.

I’m sure a lot of Leaf fans, as well as Leafs management, would like to see how a few more of the Leafs prospects look against NHL competition.

But it won’t happen so long as the four call-up limit is in place.

I really hope this is addressed in the next round of the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). Even if it means sharing little to no common ground with the GM of my favourite club.

What's My Scene?

The Leafs don’t have a lot of prospects in the system. Trading away eight of your 10 first round draft picks in a decade can sneak up on you like that.

Forward Nazem Kadri is the closest thing the Leafs have to a blue chip talent.

You’d think when prospects are this scarce their optimal development would be an organizational priority.

But you’d be wrong.

Nazem Kadri gets his second taste of NHL action Saturday night when my beloved Maple Leafs take on the Vancouver Canucks at the ACC. His promotion comes despite Brian Burke and the coach of the Marlies both conceding that Kadri’s not quite ready for prime time. Burke went so far as to say that in an ideal world, Kadri wouldn’t be getting this shot with the big club.

Sadly, under Burke’s management, words like “ideal” and “Leafs” only seem to come together when back-up goalies talk about upcoming opportunities to snare a shut-out.

Now, I don’t think Kadri’s premature promotion will ruin him or his future. I don’t think this is a make it break it moment for the player or the franchise. But I do wonder why Burke and that big brain trust he’s assembled down at the ACC are willing to make such a questionable decision about one of their scarcest resources.

Or perhaps I just underestimate the importance of game 16 in the 2010-11 season.

For me, it comes down to this: if you put player development on a continuum, with the ideal conditions for player success at one end and the worst possible conditions at the other, the decision to promote Kadri falls a little too close to the mid-point than I'm comfortable with. It's not like the Leafs get multiple shots at bringing their youngsters along or like there's plenty more where Kadri came from.

But when the GM and President of your favourite team thinks he can fast track a rebuild, I guess one shouldn’t be surprised to find out the same GM thinks he can fast track player development too.

I can only hope Burke's player development results are better than his 42-54-23 record with the Leafs.

Morrison Cut by Canucks - Should the Leafs Bite?

The Vancouver Canucks cut put centre Brendan Morrison on waivers today. As the 29th best team in the NHL last season, the Leafs have a very good shot at winning a claim, should they put one in. making him a UFA.

I don't normally weigh in on short-term roster moves or hypothetical personnel decisions, but the Leafs are awfully thin at centre and while they're not swimming in cap space, they do have room left on their 50 SPC limit to grab a guy like Morrison.

With final cuts expected at noon today (October 4, 2010) the Leafs still have six centres in camp, and none of them seem prepared to handle the tough minutes.

Tyler Bozak looked tremendous in the final half of last season, but how plausible does it seem that an undrafted kid with 37 NHL games experience will succeed as a #1 Centre in the NHL?

Mikhail Grabovski is a serviceable #2, but there a plenty of questions of size, strength stamina (and sanity).

Nazem Kadri seems destined to start this season with the Marlies.

In the #3 and #4 slots, the Leafs look like they’re going to go with AHL cast-offs.

It may seem hard to believe, but this team is going to start with two of Tim Brent, Mike Zigomanis and Christian Hanson up the middle. Hanson, who I thought looked good in camp and is one of the few big bodies at centre, might be starting with the Marlies as he's waiver exempt.

I can’t see how a guy with 37GP, Grabbo, and two AHLers up the middle is any sort of recipe for success, but then again I haven't won managed to win a hockey pool in years and I've been turned down for every GM opening in the NHL.

Obviously, Morrison isn't the player he once was, but he's a known quantity, a veteran presence and he has ties to Burke, having played for him in Vancouver and Anaheim.

It's a short term solution to be certain, but I'd feel better with Morrison playing 8 minutes a night than handing those minutes to Brent and/or Zigomanis.

**UPDATED**

The Calgary Flames signed Morrison for $750K. The Leafs look like they're rolling out Bozak, Grabovski, Brent and Mitchell as their starting four with Zigomanis in the press box.


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Nazem Kadri: Great Expectations

If Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Nazem Kadri doesn't start the year in the NHL he certainly won't be the only first round pick from 2009 playing in the minors. Scott Glennie, taken 8th overall, has already been demoted by the Dallas Stars and I'm sure when final training camp cuts are made across the NHL, there will be many other 2009 first round draft picks whose only glimpse of NHL action will be on their TV.

Development Time

One look at the 2008 first round draft, the year prior to Kadri's, reinforces that it takes time for players to develop and crack the NHL. Three of the top 15 draft picks from '08 have yet to play a single NHL game, and four of the top 15 haven't played more than half a season. That's seven out of the top 15 2008 picks still waiting to break through.

Put another way: only five players born in Kadri's birth year, 1991, have played in the NHL and two of those played in one single game.

Only 17 players born in 1990 have cracked the NHL and they've averaged just 46 games to date.

Roll it back one more year to 1989 and, while the number nearly doubles, only 31 '89 born players have laced them up in the bigs so far, averaging a total of 52 games played in their careers.

For all the talk about the NHL becoming a young man's league, last season only 53 of over 700 players were 20 and under - that's about 3% of the NHL.

Making Plans for Nigel Nazem

Now, I'm not making excuses for Kadri and I'm not saying he's a bust. He certainly doesn't look so hot compared to the pre-season that Magnue Paajarvi-Svensson, drafted 10th, is having in Edmonton. I also I have no idea as to what's best for Kadri's long-term development, but I don't think starting in the AHL is an indictment of a player's talent or character.

If Kadri isn't with the Leafs out of training camp next year, then it's time to worry. For now, it looks like he's following the typical development curve.

As a long-time follower of this franchise, it's nice to see the Leafs not rush a prospect for once.

5 Things I Learned this Leaf Season

I’m not going to offer a formal season in review.

If you’re a fan of the Leafs you’ve certainly suffered enough and you already know how this season played out.

I’m also not going to offer a prescription as to how the Leafs might turn things around next year. Yes, trades will be made, but no one predicted Kubina for Exelby, the Phaneuf or the Gigeure deal and odds are no one will get the next one remotely right either. It used to be the hallways of the ACC had more holes than Vesa Toskala, but the arrival of Brian Burke has certainly changed that. This new code of silence means the next round of deals will likely go down without any warning – just a wave of info rolling across twitter, blogs and emails with the details.

As for UFA season, good luck figuring that one out. You can post and posit all you want, but the fact remains the UFA talent pool is thin and the league-wide needs are great. That's a bad combination, which will likely result in numerous contracts that many GMs will strain to bury or trade away by 2012.

UFAs are an excellent way to spackle over smaller roster holes or to give a competitive team that much needed final push but the inefficiency of most UFA contracts (ratio of price to performance) makes it a risky way to build a club in a salary capped system.

So what does that leave Leaf fans with? There are still the usual exit interviews where fans can find out that their favourites played hurt all year. Sadly, that's about it.

So, as the Leafs clear out their lockers, I thought I’d offer up five things I’ve learned from yet another losing season in Toronto:

5. For all the talk of Brian Burke learning from and not repeating the Dan Cloutier experience, don’t believe it.

He gave Vesa Toskala a lot of rope – too much rope – and unfortunately, it only turned into the proverbial noose for the Leafs playoff hopes, not for he of the man purse.

Burke told the Toronto Star he got his first Vesa scare in the last pre-season game when the Sabres torched Toskala for seven or eight goals. There were plenty of UFA goaltending options out there the Leafs could have turned to. Toskala’s record low save percentage should have made this a no brainer. Instead, the Leafs watched their season go down in flames and the goaltending situation was not solidified until January 31, nearly five months later.

4. Don’t build a PP around Kessel

Among forwards that played 20+ NHL games and who were given at least 1 minute of PP time, Phil Kessel had atrocious numbers.

Goals scored/60 5 on 4 158th out of 233 NHL forwards.
Primary Assists/60 5 on 4, 59th
Secondary Assists/60 5 on 4 145th
Points/60 5 on 4, 156th.

His numbers were almost as bad in Boston.

Worse news, Kessel is the best option available for the Leafs. With #81 on the ice, the PP clicked at 4.94 GF/60, without him it clicked at 2.79GF/60.

The Leafs desperately need to fix their PP and I don’t think Kessel is the answer.

3. I thought the arrival of Brian Burke might mean the fans would get a break from all the talking heads that are paid to bloviate about the Leafs. Turns out I was wrong.

Leaf fans continued to be blamed for the woeful state of the franchise. Fans were assigned more blame in the Toronto Sun’s series on the Leafs’ losing streak than Harold Ballard.

Think about that one for a minute.

So long as ownership is a nebulous, largely nameless, faceless board and so long as this team struggles on the ice, Leaf fans will continue to be an easy target media in need of an easy place to pin the blame. It's not true, it's lazy, but it's far too ingrained to expect a change any time soon.

2. The #2 man in Toronto may be the most important job with the Leafs.

It was Bob Murray in Anaheim who insisted little known Francois Beauchemin be included in the Fedorov deal. Dave Nonis had the penultimate say on the Phaneuf trade, was the guy that handled the Leafs UFA negotiations last July and apparently put together the Giguere for Toskala and Blake deal (never mind being the guy that pulled off the Bertruzzi for Luongo deal and matching that RFA offer sheet for Kesler).

Nonis has a clause in his contract that allows him to seek a GM job this off-season. The next in line with the Leafs is Dave Poulin, not sure if he’s the guy I want offering sober second thought to Burke.

And, no offence to Burke, but I think he's a guy that thrives with a rational counterbalance like Nonis.

1. An expedited re-build in Toronto looks like it means sacrificing draft picks and development time.

In 2008, Luke Schenn was chosen ahead of likely rookie-of-the-year Tyler Myers because he was deemed “NHL ready.”

In 2009, The Leafs dealt two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd round pick for Phil Kessel.

This week, Ron Wilson announced that the Leafs plan to have Nazem Kadri, their first round pick in 2009 and the organization’s last first round pick until 2012, start with the big club in 2011. No development time, no chance to learn the professional game with the Marlies.

Seems to me the message to Kadri shouldn't be bet on starting next season. Rather it should be: "If you want to start in the NHL, you have to earn it."