Bitter Leaf Turns 6

I started this blog six years ago - March 26, 2006. The Leafs were floundering as an organization, they were out of the playoffs, the GM's moves were not panning out, and the future looked cloudy. It's hard to believe how much has changed...

Over the last six years, I've posted nearly 500 entries, been read by maybe 35 people and logged a very small number of page views. More importantly, I've found a somewhat productive outlet to deal with the Leafs and the frustration and disappointment that unites us all.

A look back at some of my favourite posts from the past six years:

1. My very first post: Tedesco, Ferguson and Me
2. Toronto sports media story generator (this one might be my favourite)
3. Taking on one of the most tired tropes: Are the Fans to blame?
4. On JFJ's Reign of Error and his firing
5. First Leafs games - my daughter's and my son's
6. Top Ten items I'd like to see banned from Leafs coverage
7. An open letter to the Ottawa Senators
8. My first anti-Burke post - 7 months before he was hired
9. On Sundin and the Leafs' captains - I'm so sick of Goodbyes
10. Some dislike for Darcy Tucker here, here, here, here, here and here.

Thanks to all of you who have read an entry, left a comment or sent me an email. Hopefully I'll be able to put up a post about the Leafs winning a playoff game when this Blog turns 10.

Setting the Course in September: Paying the Price in March

So I took a shot at Michael Grange's trade deadline entry earlier today.

Here’s the trade deadline story as I would have filed it.

You don’t need to look at the playoff races and the prices set in this sellers’ market to know that the Leafs' fate wasn't sealed at the trade deadline. It was sealed in September, when Burke & Co. rolled the dice on the goaltending tandem of Reimer and Gustavsson.

Burke, who claimed to be building this team from the nets out, elected to go with the high-risk high-reward combo of Reimer and Gustavsson in nets.

As the 2011-12 season was set to unfold, James Reimer, ostensibly the Leafs’ starting goalie, had just 37 games of NHL experience.

Gustavsson, his back-up, had all of 65 NHL games under his belt and was coming off a season with a disastrous .890 save percentage. To put that in perspective, Gustavsson’s save percentage was 47th among NHL goalies with 20 or more games played. Only Rick Dipietro and Ty Conklin put up worse numbers last year.

This is what the team decided to roll the dice on. Their contingency plan? Nada. Zip. Zilch. Zero.

There would be no offer to Theodore, apparently no offer for Vokoun. Giguere would not be extended, Anderson was left for the Sens, and Emery signed on with Chicago. (Thankfully we took a pass on Turco).

Now, it could be argued that this was the perfect season for the Leafs to find out if either of their goalies had the right stuff. The Leafs were a bubble team, but if Reimer or Gustavsson found their groove, the club had enough up-front talent to cross the 92+ point threshold and make the playoffs for the first time since the lockout.

But if Gustavsson and Reimer don’t have the right stuff?

Well, let’s welcome your 2011-12 Toronto Maple Leafs!

A team in 10th place at the trade deadline, treading water, and feeling increasingly under pressure from all sides. A team that’s 28th in goals against and put up a collective .904 save percentage, well below the league average.

In short, the issue with this team is not the trade deadline, "it's the goaltending, stupid."

The lack of even NHL-average goaltending has plagued the Leafs since 2006 and it is also Burke's largest career shortcoming/ blindspot.

Goaltending was his undoing in Vancouver, he dropped the ball on Bryzgalov in Anaheim, and he’s been a complete failure with goalies in Toronto.

Nothing will change until it's addressed.

Coaching

I don’t think Ron Wilson is the primary problem in Toronto, I do think his approach to the game have exacerbated the problems with this team.

If the Leafs were to get a competent goalie (a big if, I know) I do wonder if their approach to the game would ultimately be successful? I can’t recall the last run and gun hockey team that went deep into the playoffs.

The club lacks a true defensive defenceman and hasn’t had someone who can eat tough minutes since they enjoyed 136 games of Francois Beauchemin.

Raw goalies who have struggled, no shut-down D and a run and gun style does not strike me, admittedly a coaching layman, as a recipe for success.

I found this to be a very telling item Eliotte Friedman’s recent 30 thoughts:

Toronto and Philadelphia sniffed around Wild goaltender Josh Harding. Don't think either team got overly serious and one GM thought Harding was a poor match for the run-and-gun Maple Leafs. "He needs structure to be successful," the GM said.

Structure. Defence. Novel things in Toronto. Something the next coach should bring to the table.

I look at what Dave Tippet has done in Phoenix and I look at what the Leafs have become in Toronto and I can only conclude there’s an issue with the systems and coaching.

Development curves

Stepping back from the obvious failures in goal and the questionable decisions behind the bench, the single biggest long-term issue facing the Leafs is the composition of their forward and defensive corps.

There has been substantial work on peak performance and ageing and, no surprise, forwards peak earlier than defencemen. For NHL forwards, the average age for peak point per game production is 25.

As the Leafs are currently composed, their top six forwards are at or nearing their peak, with an average age of 26.

1. Phil Kessel, 24
2. Tyler Bozak, 25
3. Joffrey Lupul, 28
4. Mikhail Grabovski, 28
5. Nikolai Kulemin, 25
6. Clarke MacArthur, 26

NHL defencemen have a longer development curve and don’t hit their peak until closer to 28. As the Leafs D is currently composed, their top 4 guys have an average age of 23.5

1. Dion Phaneuf, 26
2. Carl Gunnarsson, 25
3. Jake Gardiner, 21
4. Luke Schenn, 22

What does this all mean?

It means the Leafs forwards are currently hitting their peak, while the Leafs D is four and half years away from their peak.

This is clearly not an ideal way to construct a hockey team and probably one more reason why the Leafs are 6th in goals for and 28th in goals against.

Priorities

As a Leafs fan, I’d like to see the team address three key issues in the off-season:

Trading Brian Burke

A few weeks back I was on the phone with a sports reporter talking about the MLG Time Capsule. Rather unexpectedly, he asked me the following question: Of the Canadian NHL teams, which GM would I rank 4th best.

The question made me laugh. It’s a great question as the top and the bottom are pretty easily defined. But the middle? That’s fertile ground.

To get to number four, I wasn’t sure if I should start with the worst GM (Tambellinni) or the best (Gillis?).

In the end, I used a pincer method of sorts going with Tambellinni at 7, Gauthier at 6, and Feaster at 5. From the top end, Gillis is in at 1 and Burke at 2. That left Bryan Murray or whoever the GM of the Jets is (Kevin Cheveldayoff – had to google it) for the number four slot.

I was stumped as to who should get the number four ranking. Murray’s Senators aren’t any great shakes but at that point in the season they were certainly outperforming their expected pace. On the other hand, I can’t name a single move or decision made by Cheveldayoff.

Due to this perception of inactivity, I gave the number four spot to the Jets GM by default. An answer I’m pretty sure the reporter on the other end of the phone anticipated. Don’t know that he agreed with it though.

* * *

I’m reading a wonderful book about Stoke’s first season in the Premiership. It’s a game-by-game accounting of their inaugural year by a great writer and committed fan who travels to (just about) every game.

On one of the many road trips between his home in Norwich and wherever the hell Stoke are playing, he and his travel companions debate which general managers in the Premiership they’d trade Stoke’s GM Tony Pulis for.

This got me thinking about my recent call with the sports reporter, the matter of the 4th best Canadian teams’ GM, and the ranking of Brian Burke.

I like Burke. I think he’s a passionate GM who is dedicated to winning in Toronto. I get the feeling he hates losing more than we fans do - something I wouldn't have thought possible a few years ago.

I also think Burke's passion for winning is matched by his bluster and hot air. He’s got a terrible blind spot about goalies and his scouts have struck out at the draft more often than not.

That said, how many NHL GMs would I actually swap Burke for? Lets add it up…

Bob Murray, Anaheim
This is the guy who traded for Jason Blake and Vesa Toskala. On the brighter side, he traded Toskala before he ever played a game in Anaheim. I don’t follow the Ducks very closely, but he seems to be in that dangerous netherworld where the team isn’t competing and isn’t rebuilding either.
Pass

Peter Chiarelli, Boston
In a heartbeat. He was assistant GM to the Sens when they were ascendant and has built a fantastic team with loads of depth and a hard identity in Boston. Chiarelli and his assistants have done a masterful job managing the Bs cap, even with a few questionable contracts. Would love to see what he could do in Toronto.
Yes.

Darcy Regier, Buffalo
His team seems to have a real knack for developing talent. If it weren’t for massive injuries to the Sabres blue line, they likely would have won the Cup in 2006. This has always made me wonder what Regier would be capable of doing if given the resources of a deep pocketed owner. Turns out it involves massive over-pays for the likes of Ville Leino and Christian Erhoff. The Sabres have the highest salary commitment in the NHL and will miss the playoffs.
Pass.

Jay Feaster, Calgary
Anyone who can spell NHL knows that the Flames need a serious rebuild. Jay Feaster has not yet recognized this.
Pass.

Jim Rutherford, Carolina
Rutherford swings some interesting deals, drafts pretty well, and has a Stanley Cup ring. That said, his teams seem to oscillate between being somewhat decent and absolutely horrid. He also seems to randomly hire and fire Paul Maurice, a coach I can’t abide. He seems to GM like my kids play board games, sure there’s an occasional win, but there doesn’t seem to be much strategy or forethought.
Pass.

Stan Bowman, Chicago
Bowman’s not even two years into his tenure. He took over a pretty stacked club and landed a Stanley Cup. I would think his surname alone would buy him a few year’s media grace in Toronto. As for the more important parts of his C.V. I’d say the jury is still out.
I’ll call this one a push.

Greg Sherman, Colorado
Of the 30 GMs in the NHL, this was the only one I had to google. Had no idea who was running the show in Denver. (Full disclosure, I had to google Cheveldayoff a few weeks ago). The fact that I can name 28 NHL GMs and not this guy does not bode well. According to ESPN, he made just 9 roster moves in all of 2010. Yikes.
Pass

Scott Howson, Columbus
Anyone that thinks starting a season with Steve Mason and Curtis Sanford is welcome to join my hockey pool. Run the NHL team I cheer for? Not a chance.
Pass

Joe Niewendyk, Dallas
How ugly was that James Neal and Matt Niskanen deal for Alex Goligoski? That said, every time he botched a deal like that in Toronto, they could probably cue up a highlight real on the scoreboard culminating in those ugly playoff goals on Lalime and we’d all be enthralled again for another few weeks. I think Joe’s too junior to be Leafs GM yet.
Pass

Ken Holland, Detroit
Yes.

Steve Tambellini, Edmonton
Quite possibly the worst GM in the NHL. If he had to organize my kid’s grade one class trip to the ROM, they’d end up in Waterloo at RIM.
Pass

Dale Tallon, Florida
He pretty much built the roster that won the Hawks the Cup, but he also screwed up the RFA offers that led to many pieces of the Cup-winning team being moved. In Florida, he re-aquired Brian Campbell’s over-sized contract and inexplicably moved-out the very serviceable David Booth for the old and damaged Mikael Samuelsson and Marco Sturm. And what’s up with those glasses?
Pass

Garth Snow, New York Islanders
I like a lot of the moves Snow has made as GM of the Islanders (Parenteau, Moulson, Grabner, Neilsen). Unfairly, I can’t shake the feeling that his tenure in New York is some type of performance art. It doesn’t seem quite legit.
Pass

Dean Lombardi, LA Kings
I was a big fan of how Lombardi built the Kings. He had patience, he assembled the right pieces, he avoided overpaying free agents, but it’s not looking like all of that patience and planning is going to pay off. Thinking of where the Leafs are in their development cycle and Lombardi’s (to date) failure to get the Kings to the next level, I’m starting to have my doubts. I’m on the fence, but I wouldn’t be in knots if he got the nod…er, um…let’s say Yes.

Chuck Fletcher, Minnesota
This is like trying to decide how you want to eat your tofu. No matter how you dress it up, it’s still kind of a boring, indescribable meh. And this particular tofu has missed the playoffs three years running (looking like a fourth).
Pass

Pierre Gauthier, Montreal
Pass/Passer

David Poile, Nashville
I’m sure the detractors will point to the Forsberg deal or the awful Rinne contract, but this is the guy I was hoping the Leafs would land when they were searching for a GM to replace JFJ. With limited resources and a no-name roster, Poile somehow builds teams that compete year after year.
Yes

Lou Lamoriello, New Jersey
Lou will be 70 later this year.
Pass

Glen Sather, New York Rangers
Has any executive in any industry ridden out 18 year old success like Slats? Pre-lockout, he assembled some awful teams with huge payrolls. Post-lockout, his best moves have been burying his own mistakes. The Rangers are looking good this year, but I’m thinking there window closes soon. I don’t think Slats has the jam to get that team where it needs to go.
Pass

Bryan Murray, Ottawa
How Murray has survived the purges in Ottawa is beyond me. They go through coaches like my kids going through Candy on November 1st. Add in the playoff misses, less than stellar drafts, and half-assed rebuild and you’ve got a Sens team that’s likely to miss the playoffs for the 2nd year in a row and third time in four years. The Sens’ real shot at success passed them by in 2008.
Pass

Mike Paul Holmgren, Philadelphia
Did a beautiful job transforming this team starting in late in 2007. If only he could avoid whatever is in the water in Philly that kills goalies dead. The franchise has been a virtual elephant’s graveyard for keepers for 20+ years. I’m on the fence on this one…the Pronger over 35 deal combined with the awful goaltending decisions…when I asked my pal Chemmy about Holmgren as Leafs GM, he replied, "Oh God no. Is this happening?" That tilts it.
Pass

Don Maloney, Phoenix
Solid drafting, good cap management, and a modicum of success in what has to be a difficult operating environment. On the other hand, they’re a marginal team who’ve never won a playoff series (last playoff series win was as the Jets in 1987, soon to be 25 years and counting!).
Push

Ray Shero, Pittsburgh
Big fan of Dan Bylsma and am really impressed with how this team has performed despite injuries.
Yes

Doug Wilson, San Jose
This team has been so good for so long it’s almost like Wilson’s work is taken for granted. On the flip side, they just can’t seem to get over the hump and I have to wonder if their window is starting to close. Thornton is 33, Marleau is 32...
Push

Doug Armstrong, St. Louis
When I think of the Blues, the first thing that comes to mind is wanting a do-over on the Steen deal. Anyways, not even two years into his tenure, Armstrong’s Blues are having an amazing season. Who knew the likes of Arnott, Langenbrunner, Nichol could still contribute at 37. I’ve long preached the value of veterans on one year deals and it’s certainly paying off in St. Louis. Yeah, it’s early days for Armstrong, but he put up very impressive numbers in Dallas (210-109-35-23) and he’s doing it again in St.Louis.
Yes

Steve Yzerman, Tampa Bay
How quickly the golden boy has faded. Reminds me of the adage, show me a good hockey coach and I’ll show you a team with a good goalie. Yzerman walked into a talented Tampa Bay club that was on the upswing. This year, sub-par goaltending has held the club back. In some quarters he’ll get bonus points for his work with Team Canada, but this country has so much hockey depth, you could probably pull the top names from a hat and ice a great team. I’m going to take a wait and see on Yzerman, see how he handles the goaltending issue in Tampa.
Push

Vancouver, Mike Gillis
When the rats and finks wear your team colours, they’re lovingly called agitators and pests.
Yes

Washington, George McPhee
Good old GM GM. On paper, the Caps looked like the team to beat in the east this year. The Boudreau firing seemed premature and the Hunter hiring seems misguided. Still, I like a lot of what he’s done with the Caps. I wouldn’t be upset if he came to Toronto.
Yes

Winnipeg, Kevin Cheveldayoff
Two weeks ago, I had to hit up Google to figure out who this guy was. As the fourth best GM in Canada, he’s not good enough for my Leafs.
Pass

* * *

So that’s seven GMs I’d swap Burke for, four I’m on the fence about and 18 that are a definite no.

As much as I question Burke, I have to admit I’m surprised I’d take nearly 25% of the GMs in the League in his place…not the totals I expected.

Then again, ask me next week and the numbers might be completely different.

The Leafs and Waiver Wire Limits

I don’t often agree with Leafs GM Brian Burke.

I find his stance on head shots deplorable, the majority of his UFA signings questionable, and his bluster tiresome.

The one area I do agree with him: the NHL should not limit the number of post-deadline player call-ups to four.

Sadly, with their loss to Tampa Bay, the Leafs’ season has all but come to an end. The Leafs have to win 10 of their next 12 to have a shot at the post-season. Sure, anything is possible but it’s not exactly probable.

And that’s where this call-up limit comes in.

Matt Lashoff has already cleared waivers and will be with the Leafs on their latest road trip. Rumour has it Nazem Kadri has been called-up from the Marlies to fill Colby Armstrong’s roster spot.

I’m sure a lot of Leaf fans, as well as Leafs management, would like to see how a few more of the Leafs prospects look against NHL competition.

But it won’t happen so long as the four call-up limit is in place.

I really hope this is addressed in the next round of the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). Even if it means sharing little to no common ground with the GM of my favourite club.

Road to Nowhere: Leafs Trade Versteeg

The Toronto Maple Leafs traded 24 year old Kris Versteeg to the Philadelphia Flyers for a 1st and a 3rd round draft pick in 2011.

I don’t like the deal for two simple reasons:

1. The Flyers get the known quantity and the Leafs presume all the risk (the party that takes on the risk should get more of the reward); and
2. It’s highly unlikely that the Leafs will be able to find a player of Versteeg’s ability with the Flyers’ pick.

The Flyers’ pick will likely fall in the 25 to 30 range in the first round of the NHL draft.

I looked at every player drafted 25th to 30th from 1994 to 2009 to see how they compare to a player like Versteeg. A guy who in just his fourth year in the NHL already has two 20 goal seasons and is on pace for a third. His boxcars: 223GP 58G 78A 136pts | 0.26GPG 0.35APG 0.61PtsPG.

Over those 15 16 drafts, 43 forwards have been drafted. Of those 43 forwards:
• Nine (20%) have never played a single NHL game;
• Seven (16%) have scored 58 or more career NHL goals;
• Six (14%) have averaged 0.60 points per game, or better;
• Five (10%) have averaged 0.26 goals per game, or better;

Of the 36 defencemen drafted in the 25 to 30 spot since 1994:
• Thirteen (36%) have never played a single NHL game;
• Twenty-four (66%) have not played in 80 games in their NHL career;

I realize these stats are skewed somewhat as players drafted 2007 to 2009 haven’t had much opportunity to make their mark. But looking at the 78 players taken from 1994 to 2006, the picture doesn’t change much.

In short, it doesn’t look like the Leafs are going to pluck a player with Versteeg’s ability out of that draft spot. Sure, it could happen, but why roll the dice?

The Leafs also got some cap space out of the deal, but Burke hasn’t exactly wowed me with his UFA overspends on Komisarek, Ledba, Orr and Armstrong. And it’s not like 20 goal wingers are available on the free agent market for $3M or less. Also of note, this year’s crop of UFAs is the opposite of good.

Summing up: the Leafs traded a salary-controlled 24 year old who’s consistently scored 20+ goals throughout his career for a draft pick that’s unlikely to turn into a consistent 20 goal scorer and the opportunity to overspend on a thin and overpriced UFA market.

Maybe there's another component yet to come, but as it stands I don’t like this deal.

Leafs, Lupul and Ideas That Won't Die

Three quick thoughts about the Toronto Maple Leafs acquiring Joffrey Lupul:

1. Burke's trades continue to come as complete surprises;
2. The key to the trade might just be the prospect, not the player; and
3. The Leafs take on more salary, cap and term than they ship out.

The first is noteworthy only in that for a long time the ACC/MLSE was leakier than a goaltending tandem of Andrew Raycroft and Vesa Toskala.

To the second point, this deal has a lot of similarities with the Phaneuf trade.

The Leafs got a player with a bloated contract that isn't playing remotely close to his pay grade and whose arrows are pointing the wrong way. The Leafs took on additional salary, a bigger cap hit, and a longer term but by doing so they were able to add another promising prospect, Jake Gardiner, to their system. This, it seems, is the cost of replenishing the talent pool.

Which brings me to my third point...

The financial clout of MLSE may actually be starting to pay off; however, not quite in the way many had expected or predicted.

To date, teams have preferred parking their horrible contracts in the AHL or transferring them to the KHL rather than burning additional assets such as picks and prospects in order to entice another team to take them. (The idea of picks or prospects being exchanged for bad contracts is the zombie of NHL trade coverage. No matter how often it's knocked down and left for dead it just keeps coming crawling back. And like many of the NHL talking heads that raise the issue, it's in desperate need of brains.) Given the amount of air time, column space and page views the trade deadline will generate, I am certain that this oft discussed scenario, which remains rarer than a quiet and reflective moment from Pierre Maguire, will be repeatedly raised and debated before the NHL trade deadline day comes to a merciful close.

But back to the trade...

In short:

• Lupul may be a top six player on the Leafs but this is more a testament of just how thin the Leafs top six is, than it is an indication of Lupul's so-called talent;
• I doubt Lupul pushes the 25 goal mark as many have suggested. He's only crested that mark twice in 6.5 seasons and it's rare for an oft-injured 28 year old to suddenly find a scoring touch;
• The Leafs' single biggest need remains finding a quality centre;
• The Leafs will need to fill-in the 24 minutes a night Beauchemin often played (could mean more Komisarek);
• The Leafs get an opportunity to see what they have in Aulie (not a bad thing, although with rookies, come rookie mistakes);
• The deal crates a long-term issue on D - with Kaberle's departure all but certain (either at the deadline or as a UFA), the Leafs are going to be down two veteran, minute eating d-men;
• The Leafs get younger by adding another prospect to their system; and
• By the time the Leafs are actually a competitive club playing meaningful post-season games, Gardiner could be an important part of this club. Lupul will likely be little more than an entry in the Leafs annual media guide.

Burke has to get the Leafs out of a pretty big hole. Part of that process will come from assembling a group of picks, prospects and young players that can make a meaningful, collective, contribution down the road. Another part of that process will come from acquiring transitional players who can push the John Mitchells and Freddie Sjostroms down the depth chart.

Looking at today's trade, it's pretty clear to me where each of the newly acquired players fits into this ongoing process. And it appears eating $10M of Joffrey Lupul's salary is the cost of making the Leafs that much more competitive and, perhaps, getting them that much further out of a very deep hole.

How bad has Colby Armstrong's Season Been?

Colby Armstrong yaps. He agitates. Some claim he's a hitter, but he's just 6th among forwards on his own team in hits per game.

He can supposedly play in all situations but doesn't: he is 10th among Leaf forwards in Power Play TOI per game; 5th among forwards in short-handed TOI per game.

Acquired to play on the 3rd line, Leafs GM Brian Burke said Armstrong's best feature was his ability to contribute, wait for it, on the top 2 lines.* Unfortunately, no matter the line he's played on, Armstrong hasn't made much of a contribution to the 2010-11 Leafs.

How awful has Armstrong's season been? He's on pace for 9 goals and 6 assists, the lowest totals of his pro career. When his performance is ranked among NHL forwards this season Armstrong is, well, he's not so good:

	Total	NHL Rank Among Fs
Goals	3	312th
Assists	2	364th
Points	5	339th
ES GF/60	0.63	216th
ES PTS/60	1.04	334th
PP Goals	0	227th
PP Assists	0	300th
PP Points	0	274th
Hits	34	204th
Hits/Game	1.55	107th
Penalties Drawn/60	1.5	83rd
Penalties Taken/60	1.0	125th
Offensive zone start/finish differential	-2.3	270th
CORSI**	-1.98	376th

Admittedly, Armstrong suffered a serious injury when a ligament detached from his hand in October. That said, for $3M a year (the 129th highest paid forward in the NHL) it would be nice if Armstrong could maybe play in-line with his pay grade. Maybe crack the top 130 in more than one statistical category or even, you know, make the top 200 in a few.

Ideally, Armstrong could agitate other players as much as his complete and total inability to produce any tangible results for the Leafs agitates me.

*with assessments like this, I have to wonder about the performance of the Leafs reconstructed scouting department. In addition to bringing us the $3M wonder that is Colby Armstrong, these scouts are the fine fellows that have also brought Leaf fans 2 years of Brett Lebda, Mike Komisarek's 10 minutes a night at $4.5M and Dion Phaneuf (3 goals in 48GP as a Leaf).

**A positive corsi rate equals more time spent in the offensive zone. A negative rate equals more time spent in the defensive zone. This site has a a much more in-depth explanation of CORSI.

Smoke 'em if you got 'em

As a kid, three things terrified me more than any other: quicksand, Bigfoot from the Six Million Dollar Man, and bottomless pits.

When Catwoman fell into that bottomless pit on the old Batman shows I was horrified. First off, what a waste of Julie Newmar (seriously) and secondly – a bottomless pit? Really? Falling forever, right through the planet? That is some worrisome stuff to a nine year old (although my kids sure do love to sing along to John Prine's Bottomless Lake).

Thirty years later, none of these fears seem all that legit anymore. You don’t hear much about quicksand, a seemingly ubiquitous plot device in the TV shows and movies of the 1970s and 1980s. The big foot clips on youtube still give me the heebie-jeebies (what is up with those eyes?!?) but I’m no longer worried about what to do when a sasquatch attacks.

As for the bottomless pit, lately that’s what it is to be a Leafs fan - every time you think the bottom has been found, the franchise proves us wrong...

What are the Odds?

I never though this year’s squad would amount to much, likely a tweener team – not good enough for the playoffs and not bad enough for the draft lottery.

Many of the so-called pros saw it the same way: Vegas had the Leafs Stanley Cup odds at 60 to 1 (which seems generous to me); online sports betting sites don’t think much of the Leafs either; and Sports Club Stats has the Leafs odds of making the post season down to a slim 6.2%

That's what makes the next step such a tough one. If this team is under-performing, it's not under-performing by much.

Coach Wilson

Even with the teams' abysmal performance, I have no idea if coach Ron Wilson should be fired.

The holes on the Leafs roster have been evident for some time and it was clear Burke's off-season spackle job wouldn’t be get this team out of the bottom third of the league.

I’m not sure any coach could win with this pop-gun offence. I’ve seen puddles that have more meaningful depth.

The only coach Brian Burke ever fired was Mike Keenan and, if you go back and read the press clippings, Burke apparently did it for two reasons:

1. The Canucks were on a horrific losing skid;
2. Burke was worried another team would fire their coach and hire Marc Crawford, the guy Burke wanted.

There is no doubt the Leafs are all over criterion number one. With only four wins in their last 20 and six shutout losses in their last 16, this is an ugly skid.

As for criterion number two, I have no idea who the best available coaches are, but you’d have to think the Leafs brain trust has gone over that question on a daily basis and have a list of candidates whittled down and ready to go.

I think that's the only reason Burke might fire Ron Wilson: if he thinks another organization is going to scoop up his top choice as coach, otherwise I wouldn't bet on Wilson going anywhere this season.

The Month Ahead: A New Low?

The NHL roster freeze is December 19^th, but Brian Burke freezes his roster on December 9^th. No word on whether that freeze includes changes affecting coaches. Knowing Burke's so-called code, I have a feeling it does.

Looking ahead at the Leafs schedule, they play five top teams in the next 10 days. I’ll be shocked if they come out of that stretch with 2 wins; sadly, I’ll be surprised if they come out of it with more than 2 goals.

If you’re a gambler, you can make the safe bet and take the under against the Leafs at proline. If you're looking for something more entertaining than another shutout loss, there's always Julie Newmar as Catwoman and those haunting Six Milion Dollar Man vs. Sasquatch videos...

What's My Scene?

The Leafs don’t have a lot of prospects in the system. Trading away eight of your 10 first round draft picks in a decade can sneak up on you like that.

Forward Nazem Kadri is the closest thing the Leafs have to a blue chip talent.

You’d think when prospects are this scarce their optimal development would be an organizational priority.

But you’d be wrong.

Nazem Kadri gets his second taste of NHL action Saturday night when my beloved Maple Leafs take on the Vancouver Canucks at the ACC. His promotion comes despite Brian Burke and the coach of the Marlies both conceding that Kadri’s not quite ready for prime time. Burke went so far as to say that in an ideal world, Kadri wouldn’t be getting this shot with the big club.

Sadly, under Burke’s management, words like “ideal” and “Leafs” only seem to come together when back-up goalies talk about upcoming opportunities to snare a shut-out.

Now, I don’t think Kadri’s premature promotion will ruin him or his future. I don’t think this is a make it break it moment for the player or the franchise. But I do wonder why Burke and that big brain trust he’s assembled down at the ACC are willing to make such a questionable decision about one of their scarcest resources.

Or perhaps I just underestimate the importance of game 16 in the 2010-11 season.

For me, it comes down to this: if you put player development on a continuum, with the ideal conditions for player success at one end and the worst possible conditions at the other, the decision to promote Kadri falls a little too close to the mid-point than I'm comfortable with. It's not like the Leafs get multiple shots at bringing their youngsters along or like there's plenty more where Kadri came from.

But when the GM and President of your favourite team thinks he can fast track a rebuild, I guess one shouldn’t be surprised to find out the same GM thinks he can fast track player development too.

I can only hope Burke's player development results are better than his 42-54-23 record with the Leafs.

The Wheels on the Bus Have Fallen Off

“If you want to take the bows when the team is winning, then you better take the heat when it’s not winning. It is ultimately my responsibility. I drive the bus, I decide who gets on the bus, I decide who gets off the bus. If the bus is stuck in the ditch, then ultimately that’s my responsibility."
Leafs GM & President Brian Burke

I'll play along...

Before the bus left the station, it was pointed out to Mr. Burke that the brakes were shot and the power steering fluid was low. Burke decided to top up the windshield wiper fluid and take the bus through a car wash before setting off on a difficult journey.

That he ended up in a metaphorical ditch should come as a surprise to no one.

There's no imagination in the blues

Most people pegged the Leafs to be 12th in the East and they're certainly playing down to expectations.

That said, the two biggest and most common question before the Leafs' season started - is Bozak ready to be a #1C and who is going to score for this team - have turned out to have rather ugly answers so far (No; nobody).

It's hard to believe that the Leafs scored more goals (16) in their first four games than they have in their last ten (15). The team is now on pace to score fewer goals this season than any team since the lockout.

One win in their last nine, shut-out three times in their past six. The trend lines are all pointing in the wrong direction.

The worst part is, lots of people saw this coming.

Looking at this mess of a club, to my mind the latest horrific slide appears to come down to:

1. The team has tuned out the Coach. The penalty kill is bad and the power play is a whole new level of atrocious. Too frequently the team comes out flat and isn't coming up with an adequate compete level; and/or
2. Burke has consistently mis-judged the state of the club and applied the wrong "fix." (When the team had three wins in their first 18 games using the NHL's most expensive group of defencemen, acquiring another "stud" d-,an didn't strike me as the club's biggest priority. This off-season, with goals at an absolute premium, committing $3.5M to 15 goal man Colby Armstrong seemed like a horrible use of resources).

Now, if the problem is the former, it's rather easy to address. Put a bullet in Wilson and his crew and move on.

If it's the latter (and the voices in my head are telling me it might be) I'm not ready to go there quite yet...


Find all the best pubs for watching Leaf games at YellowPages.ca

Brian Burke's Coaches

I'm not smart enough to know if Ron Wilson is the "problem" in Leaf land. Actually, I'm not sure that there is a so-called problem.

One look at the Leafs' roster and it's pretty clear that goals are going to be tough to come by this year. This is a roster whose first-line centre went un-drafted and has all of 50 NHL games experience.

With so little offensive punch there's no margin for error on the back-end. The lack of firepower makes every mistake in the Leafs' own zone terminal. The Leafs are going to have to win a lot of games 2-1 or 1-0 if they're going to have a shot at the post-season.

Despite the state of the line-up, with just one win in their last 9 games and three years of piss-poor special teams play, the call for Wilson to be fired is growing louder by the day.

I thought a quick look at Brian Burke's coaching decisions in his previous gigs as a NHL GM might shed some light on what, if anything, might happen behind the bench with the 2010-11 Maple Leafs.

Hartford Whalers, 1992-93

This was Brian Burke's first gig as a GM.

Hired May 26, 1992, within three weeks Burke announced a coaching change - interim coach Jimmy Roberts was replaced by Paul Holmgren.

Holmgren had previous NHL head coaching experience, he was the bench boss for the Flyers from 1988-to 1991.

Burke was fired in 1993, Holmgren remained the coach of the Whale until 1996.

Vancouver Canucks, 1998-04

Mike Keenan was the first coach Brian Burke fired.

In January 1999, after a month of hockey that saw the Canucks win 2 of 13 games - a tailspin Burke called, "an unmitigated disaster" - Mike Kennan was shown the door. Burke brought in Marc Crawford as his head coach, signing him to a three-year deal.

Crawford had previously coached the Colorado Avalanche to a Stanley Cup in 1996 and resigned from the Avalanche in 1998.

Burke made no further coaching changes during his tenure in Vancouver.

Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks, 2005 - 2008

Brian Burke was named GM of the Mighty Ducks in June, 2005. Burke offered a one-year extension to head coach Mike Babcock. Babcock declined and signed a multi-year deal just a few weeks later with the Detroit Red Wings.

Burke hired former Leafs defenceman Randy Carlyle to coach the Ducks. Carlyle had been head head coach the Canucks' AHL affiliate.

Of the hire, Burke said: "I wanted to find a coach that matches my intensity level. I hate to lose, I know Randy hates to lose as much as I do."

Carlyle is still the coach of the Ducks.

Coaches Cornered

In three previous stints as GM, covering 10+ seasons of hockey, Burke fired just one coach and hired three. Two of the three hires had previous NHL experience, the third was well known to Burke as the coach of his former AHL affiliate.

I'm doubtful Wilson gets the gate this year. That said, the one thing that's struck me most about Burke's tenure with the Leafs is how often his big moves come as complete shocks - there's no leaks to the press and nobody sees it coming. I don't know what Ron Wilson's fate may be, but I'm willing to wager it will be in keeping with Burke's M.O. and will come as a surprise to many.

Find all the best pubs for watching Leaf games at YellowPages.ca

Leafs at the 10 game mark

When Cliff Fletcher first joined the Leafs (Gah, nearly 20 years ago!) he often spoke about evaluating a team's performance every 10 games. I imagine it was a large enough sample to see some trends and a short-enough time frame that GMs and coaches could make the requisite changes.

On the eve of the 2010-11 NHL season, I posted a series of questions about the state of the Leafs line-up.

In the spirit of Cliff Fletcher, and with the Leafs hitting the 10 game mark, I thought I'd look back at my early season questions to see if any answers or patterns have emerged...

Have the Leafs finally fixed their goaltending situation?
It looks like the tandem of Giguere and Gustavsson might have what it takes to give the Leafs their first batch of league average goaltending since the lockout. While both have looked spotty at times, they've also put up some timely saves and have held the Leafs in pretty much every game.

Will the special teams finally be special?
The Leafs' PK is clicking along quite nicely. With an 84.8% success rate, the Leafs are in 13th place and just 0.2% out of being in the NHL's top 10.

The Leafs' PP continues to be short-bus special. The Leafs are 24th in the NHL will a success rate of just 11.9%. With goal scoring at an absolute premium, this is one aspect of the game the club and the coaches need to master if the Leafs are to have any shot at success this season.

Will the Leafs D actually play D?
Turns out the answer is yes (so far). The Leafs have done a great job limiting shots - they are 2nd in the league in shots against and 6th in the League in goals against. This is a massive improvement over last season and further evidence of Toskala's incompetence. Given the lack of goal scoring punch on this team it's going to be increasingly important for the Leafs to continue to play outstanding D.

What about offence?
Based on a Pythagorean wins formula, the Leafs are going to need about 215+ goals to have a shot at 8th place in the East. That's a target that's looking a little out of reach for this team. The club is on pace to score just 189 goals*, which would be lowest total since Carolina put up 172 in 2003-2004. (*Yes, the foretasted total is low as the Leafs are coming off back-to-back shutouts, but the main point remains: this club needs offence badly and the current line-up doesn't look like they have the means to generate it).

Is Tyler Bozak a legit option as the number one centre?
Here's what I wrote a month ago:

Bozak looked tremendous in the final half of last season, but how plausible is it that an undrafted kid with 37 NHL games experience will succeed as a #1 Centre in the NHL?

After 10 games, Bozak sure isn't looking comfortable or productive in the #1 slot. Unless Bozak miraculously finds his a-game, landing a top centre, or more top 3 offensive talent, will be Burke's biggest challenge.

Has Burke misread the tea leaves again?
I thought so leading into this season, as I wrote a few weeks back:

This past off-season, Burke looked at the team and thought a scoring winger, preferably with size, was the team’s most pressing need. Yet, out of the four centres on the club, none seem prepared to handle the tough minutes. Grabovski is a serviceable #2, but there a plenty of questions of size, strength stamina (and sanity) surrounding Grabbo. In the #3 and #4 slots, the Leafs are going with John Mitchell and two AHL cast-offs. This does not seem like a recipe for success.

And it hasn't been a recipe for success. Bozak has struggled as the top pivot, Grabovski is without a single goal 10 games in and Zigomanis has been demoted to the Marlies. It's clear the Leafs need big help up the middle.

How will the kids develop on the Marlies?
I have no idea.

Hanson and Caputi are back up with the Leafs; Gunnarsson looks like he should be sent down. Kadri is improving but has been held pointless in too many games. Oscar Mueller has been benched and called invisible...something to keep an eye on when we check back in at game 20.

New Season, Old Questions for Leafs

As the Leafs get ready to start their 2010-11 season at home against the dreaded Montreal Canadiens, the team has more question marks than Frank Gorshin’s Riddler suit.

Have the Leafs finally fixed their goaltending situation?
The team has suffered from horrific goaltending since the lockout, but Burke may have finally found a tandem in Gustavsson and Giguere that can provide some stability between the pipes. I'd be delighted if this club could aim so high as getting league average goaltending.

Will the special teams finally be special?
Rob Zettler talked about minor fixes for the Leafs PK and the team was trying new PP systems in the pre-season. The coaching staff has to do something as being in last place in both the PK and PP is like being fat, drunk, and stupid – it’s no way to go through life.

Will the Leafs D actually play D?
The defence corps reminds me of every hockey pool team I have ever drafted. Looks great on paper, the games begin and I find myself wondering - how can so many big names be so bad?

If the Leafs fix the defensive side of the game, what about offence?
Last season, the Leafs gave up 263 goals, 37 more than the NHL average of 226. If they shave-off nearly 0.5 goals a game they’ll be in great defensive shape; however, based on goal differential, they’ll need to score about 220 goals in order have a shot at a 90 point season and the post-season. Can the current line-up generate that much offense?

Is Tyler Bozak a legit option as the number one centre?
Bozak looked tremendous in the final half of last season, but how plausible is it that an undrafted kid with 37 NHL games experience will succeed as a #1 Centre in the NHL? I sure hope he pulls it off...

Has Burke misread the tea leaves again?
Last season, Burke and his management team looked at the state of the Leafs and thought they had assembled a team that could challenge for a playoff spot. The team came in 29th.

This past off-season, they looked at the team and thought a scoring winger, preferably with size, was the team’s most pressing need. Yet, out of the four centres on the club, none seem prepared to handle the tough minutes. Grabovski is a serviceable #2, but there a plenty of questions of size, strength stamina (and sanity) surrounding Grabbo. In the #3 and #4 slots, the Leafs are going with John Mitchell and two AHL cast-offs. This does not seem like a recipe for success.

How will the kids develop on the Marlies?
Luca Caputi and Christian Hanson earned a spot with the big club, but find themselves starting with the Marlies because of waiver status/ contracts/ spinning a giant wheel left over from JFJ's tenure. For the first time in a long time, the Leafs look like they've got some kids in the system, but are there enough minutes for all of them on the Marlies? Something to keep an eye on until Brent/Zigomanis/Mitchell's cup of coffee is over and the Leafs bring up the more deserving kids.

Find all the best pubs for watching Leaf games at YellowPages.ca

Morrison Cut by Canucks - Should the Leafs Bite?

The Vancouver Canucks cut put centre Brendan Morrison on waivers today. As the 29th best team in the NHL last season, the Leafs have a very good shot at winning a claim, should they put one in. making him a UFA.

I don't normally weigh in on short-term roster moves or hypothetical personnel decisions, but the Leafs are awfully thin at centre and while they're not swimming in cap space, they do have room left on their 50 SPC limit to grab a guy like Morrison.

With final cuts expected at noon today (October 4, 2010) the Leafs still have six centres in camp, and none of them seem prepared to handle the tough minutes.

Tyler Bozak looked tremendous in the final half of last season, but how plausible does it seem that an undrafted kid with 37 NHL games experience will succeed as a #1 Centre in the NHL?

Mikhail Grabovski is a serviceable #2, but there a plenty of questions of size, strength stamina (and sanity).

Nazem Kadri seems destined to start this season with the Marlies.

In the #3 and #4 slots, the Leafs look like they’re going to go with AHL cast-offs.

It may seem hard to believe, but this team is going to start with two of Tim Brent, Mike Zigomanis and Christian Hanson up the middle. Hanson, who I thought looked good in camp and is one of the few big bodies at centre, might be starting with the Marlies as he's waiver exempt.

I can’t see how a guy with 37GP, Grabbo, and two AHLers up the middle is any sort of recipe for success, but then again I haven't won managed to win a hockey pool in years and I've been turned down for every GM opening in the NHL.

Obviously, Morrison isn't the player he once was, but he's a known quantity, a veteran presence and he has ties to Burke, having played for him in Vancouver and Anaheim.

It's a short term solution to be certain, but I'd feel better with Morrison playing 8 minutes a night than handing those minutes to Brent and/or Zigomanis.

**UPDATED**

The Calgary Flames signed Morrison for $750K. The Leafs look like they're rolling out Bozak, Grabovski, Brent and Mitchell as their starting four with Zigomanis in the press box.


Find all the best pubs for watching Leaf games at YellowPages.ca

Kaberle and the Cat

Long serving Toronto Maple Leaf Tomas Kaberle's no-trade clause has an interesting wrinkle - it includes a short window each summer where the Leafs can trade him without his approval. This window opens on July 1 and runs to mid-August [or earlier/ later depending on the source]. It's very likely that Kaberle will be moved when his trade window opens, consider:

• What little organizational depth the Leafs have is on the blue line;
• In order to compete, the team needs to add quality forwards;
• Kaberle's age profile doesn't quite fit with the Leafs (hoped for) window of opportunity; and
• Kaberle seems to be the only asset of value on the roster that's even somewhat expendable.

I've been trying to think of an equivalent deal from the Leafs' past and I'm coming up short.

The Leafs have turned over their roster many times in the three decades that I've been following them but it's not often that such a long-serving player, drafted by the club, is so transparently put in position of waiting on a trade.

In terms of parallels, the only situation I can think of is Felix "the cat" Potvin.

Potvin and Kaberle's CVs cover some similar ground...

The Cat was drafted by the Blue and White and played eight seasons in Toronto after winning the starter's job over Hall of Fame goalie Grant Fuhr.

In his eight seasons as a Leaf, Potvin was a member of the NHL all-rookie team in 1993 and a finalist in the 1993 Calder voting. He made the NHL All Star team twice, led the NHL in goals-against in 1996-97 and had the best goals-against average in 1992-93. In his first full year as a Leaf, he backstopped the Leafs all the way to the Conference Finals.

Kaberle made the club as a surprise rookie and in his 10 seasons as a Leaf was a four time all-star. In his first full year as a Leaf, the team went all the way to the Conference Finals.

In 1998, the signing of UFA goalie Curtis Joseph created a log-jam in nets, making Felix expendable. After just five starts, Potvin left the Leafs in frustration and was AWOL for five weeks before being traded.

The signings of Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin, along with the emergence of Luke Schenn, created a log-jam on the Leafs' blue line, making one Leafs' D expendable. The odd man out appears to be Kaberle.

Potvin, it was claimed, was never the same after a cheap goal that came late in a game against the St. Louis Blues who were leading the league at the time. An Al MacInnis slap shot from out near centre ice beat Potvin over his glove, the Leafs lost the game and Potvin lost his mojo.

Kaberle, it has often been claimed, was never the same after a cheap hit by New Jersey Devil Cam Janssen.

In the end, Potvin went to the Islanders for former top draft pick Bryan Berard. The Islanders felt that Berard's offense would never make up for the defensive deficiencies in his game. The Leafs were looking to add more youth to their system and thought their coach, former defencemen Pat Quinn, was perfectly situated to help Berard develop into a top flight defenceman. Tragically, Berard's career was derailed by an errant high stick.

If, and when, Kaberle is moved in the next few weeks, in keeping with his similarities to Potvin, I wouldn't be surprised if the return to the Leafs is once again a flawed young prospect with lots of upside.

I do hope that a Kaberle trade has a happier ending than the Potvin deal for both the Leafs and whomever it is that they acquire.

The Phaneuf Era

Darryl Sittler, Rick Vaive, Wendel Clark, Doug Gilmour, Mats Sundin and Dion Phaneuf.

One of these things is not like the other.

On Monday, June 14th Dion Phaneuf was announced as the newest captain of my beloved Toronto Maple Leafs. To mark the occasion, Phaneuf read from prepared remarks with all the earnestness and awkwardness of a grade four student's first speech arts class.

I think Phaneuf is a serviceable hockey player. Coach Ron Wilson and GM Brian Burke are rather enamoured with him and their opinion counts for a whole lot more than mine. But I do have two concerns with Phaneuf wearing the C.

1. A one-time Norris trophy nominee, Phaneuf needs to re-establish his game as one of the premiere d-men in the NHL. Is the added responsibility and pressure of being captain going to help or hinder him?
2. Does he have the softer, off-ice skills to be the face of the Leaf franchise?

Restoring his game

Phaneuf's point totals have declined year over year for two straight seasons and his goals have been in decline for three straight. He's gone from a Norris nominated defenceman to being traded to the Leafs for an assorted pile of meh.

Given the voraciousness and non-stop coverage of the Toronto media market, is piling yet more expectations on Phaneuf's shoulders the best way for him to get his so-called game back?

Phaneuf responded to the media and overall attention of playing in hockey-mad Toronto by scoring 2 goals in 26 games, that's despite playing over 26 minutes a night.

To my eyes, he didn't appear to thrive on the new pressure and attention of playing in TO, but it's not like I have game film of his last few years in Calgary. (It should also be noted that he shot an abysmal 2.3% in Toronto and will likely regress to his norm of about 6% next year. No doubt, many will ascribe his renewed goal scoring production to the bright shiny C that has been freshly affixed to the front of his jersey. Don't believe it).

Phaneuf desperately needs to get his A-game back. I'm not sure giving him more pressure, more spotlight and more expectations is the best way for to help make that happen.

Handling the spotlight

My second concern with Phaneuf as captain is somewhat related, but rather than getting his own game back on track in this hockey mad market, I wonder if he has the stuff to be the so-called player face of the franchise.

If his speech at the newser is anything to go by, this is not a man that will impress in the scrums, shield his fellow players when they need it or distract the media hordes when things on the ice aren't going well. He may steal the pucks to draw media attention away from a loss, but I have the feeling he'd do it in warm-up.

Maybe it's just me, but I prefer my leaders to be a bit more cerebreal or for them to burn with a passion for hockey. When I looked in Wendel Clark's or Doug Gimour's eyes, I got the feeling they'd do anything to win. When I look in Dion's eyes, I get the feling he's having trouble sounding out a multi-syllabic compound word.

I don't suppose it matters much. The Leafs won't get better until the get more talent and several great players have worn the C in Toronto while the team crashed and burned.

One look around the NHL at the list of captains doesn't leave much to be impressed, or alternately, worried about.

How many Leaf Captains?

The Globe and Mail said Phaneuf is the 17th captain of the Leafs; the CBC said he's the 18th...here's the wiki list:

1. Bert Corbeau, 1927
2. Hap Day, 1927–37
3. Charlie Conacher, 1937–38
4. Red Horner, 1938–40
5. Syl Apps, 1940–43
6. Bob Davidson, 1943–45
7. Ted Kennedy, 1948–55
8. Sid Smith, 1955–56
9. Jimmy Thomson, 1956–57
   Ted Kennedy, 1957
10. George Armstrong, 1957–69
11. Dave Keon, 1969–75
12. Darryl Sittler, 1975–79
13. Rick Vaive, 1982–86
14. Rob Ramage, 1989–91
15. Wendel Clark, 1991–94
16. Doug Gilmour, 1994–97
17. Mats Sundin, 1997–2008
18. Dion Phaneuf, 2010

I do wonder what the correct total is?

Tomas Kaberle and the Process of Elimination

According to TSN, at least two teams have expressed an interest in acquiring Toronto Maple Leaf Tomas Kaberle and upwards of five teams may be in the hunt.

In discussing the potential return, Leafs GM Brian Burke told the Toronto Star, "We need to add a winger that can score, preferably with some size. And we need some secondary toughness. So those would be the areas we would try to address."

Given Burke's track record on following through on his proclamations (QV. his quest for Tavares, threatening to waive vets, promoting accountability while giving Toskala start after start) odds are the Leafs will move Kaberle for a defenceman and checking centre.

But let's give Burke the benefit of the doubt on this one and agree that the organization is looking for a winger that can score.

Sounds good, but who's out there?

In the spirit of my recent post on behavioural economics, Amos Tversky has written about a decision making strategy called "elimination by aspects" or EBA. The idea here is that in order to make an informed decision, decision-makers establish an overall goal and then narrow the range of choices by aspects (e.g. scoring, age profile, cost to acquire). Any alternatives that do not match the selected aspect are eliminated.

Essentially, EBA is making a decision by eliminations.

So how many scoring wingers are there for Burke to chose from?

In 2009-2011, there were a total of 178 forwards that scored at a 0.51 pts/game rate...let's start to narrow down the pool:

• 7 played less than 20 games (171)
• 67 are centres (104)
• 1 is a Leaf (103)
• 16 score at 1.0 pts per game or higher and will cost more than Kaberle and what the Leafs have in the cupboard (87)
• 12 are Unrestricted free agents (75)
• 16 have no-trade or no-movement clauses (59)
• 9 are 31 or older, which doesn't fit with the age profile that Burke often talks about (50)
• 3 fit Burke's profile, but are simply not going to happen: Vanek, Cammaleri, Tavares (47)

Obviously, these 47 players aren't the absolute list. Players with No-Trade and No-Movement clauses get traded all the time (well, maybe not from the Leafs). Burke may also be ok with acquiring an older player, or the Leafs may move Kaberle as part of a package to get a player with a higher points-per-game ratio. There are also players on here who, for many reasons - price to performance ratio (Bobby Ryan, I'm looking at you), their relative value to their club, etc. - are going to be difficult, if not impossible, to pry away from their team. There may also be prospects the Leafs have in mind that didn't play enough games, or put up enough points per game in limited experience and slipped under my radar.

With that caveat out of the way, here's my list of 47 scoring wingers, one of whom just might be wearing the blue and white in the next few weeks. The list has been sorted by team.

	PLAYER	TEAM	POS	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PPG
1	Bobby Ryan	ANA	R	81	35	29	64	9	0.79
2	Jussi Jokinen	CAR	L	81	30	35	65	3	0.8
3	RJ Umberger	CBJ	L	82	23	32	55	-16	0.67
4	Kristian Huselius	CBJ	L	74	23	40	63	-4	0.85
5	Jakub Voracek	CBJ	R	81	16	34	50	-7	0.62
6	Rene Bourque	CGY	L	73	27	31	58	7	0.79
7	Troy Brouwer	CHI	L	78	22	18	40	9	0.51
8	Kris Versteeg	CHI	L	79	20	24	44	8	0.56
9	Patrick Sharp	CHI	L	82	25	41	66	24	0.8
10	T.J. Galiardi	COL	L	70	15	24	39	6	0.56
11	Brandon Yip	COL	R	32	11	8	19	5	0.59
12	David Jones	COL	R	23	10	6	16	1	0.7
13	Chris Stewart	COL	R	77	28	36	64	4	0.83
14	Wojtek Wolski	PHX	L	80	23	42	65	21	0.81
15	James Neal	DAL	L	78	27	28	55	-5	0.71
16	Loui Eriksson	DAL	L	82	29	42	71	-4	0.87
17	Dustin Penner	EDM	R	82	32	31	63	6	0.77
18	DavidBooth	FLA	L	28	8	8	16	-3	0.57
19	DustinBrown	LAK	L	82	24	32	56	-6	0.68
20	Wayne Simmonds	LAK	R	16	24		40	22	0.51
21	JustinWilliams	LAK	R	49	10	19	29	3	0.59
22	Antti Miettinen	MIN	R	79	20	22	42	-2	0.53
23	Guillaume Latendresse	MIN	L	78	27	13	40	-3	0.51
24	Benoit Pouliot	MTL	L	53	17	11	28	8	0.53
25	Andrei Kostitsyn	MTL	L	59	15	18	33	1	0.56
26	Brian Gionta	MTL	R	61	28	18	46	3	0.75
27	DavidClarkson	NJD	R	46	11	13	24	3	0.52
28	Niclas Bergfors	NJD	R	81	21	23	44	-10	0.54
29	Patric Hornqvist	NSH	R	80	30	21	51	18	0.64
30	Matt Moulson	NYI	L	82	30	18	48	-1	0.59
31	Blake Comeau	NYI	R	61	17	18	35	-2	0.57
32	Kyle Okposo	NYI	R	80	19	33	52	-22	0.65
33	Milan Michalek	OTT	L	66	22	12	34	-12	0.52
34	ClaudeGiroux	PHI	R	82	16	31	47	-9	0.57
35	Radim Vrbata	PHX	R	82	24	19	43	6	0.52
36	Scottie Upshall	PHX	R	49	18	14	32	5	0.65
37	Ryane Clowe	SJS	L	82	19	38	57	0	0.7
38	Devin Setoguchi	SJS	R	70	20	16	36	0	0.51
39	David Perron	STL	L	82	20	27	47	-10	0.57
40	Brad Boyes	STL	R	82	14	28	42	1	0.51
41	David Backes	STL	R	79	17	31	48	-4	0.61
42	Steve Downie	TBL	R	79	22	24	46	14	0.58
43	MasonRaymond	VAN	L	82	25	28	53	0	0.65
44	Alexandre Burrows	VAN	L	82	35	32	67	34	0.82
45	Michael Grabner	VAN	R	20	5	6	11	2	0.55
46	Mikael Samuelsson	VAN	R	74	30	23>/s>	53	10	0.72
47	Eric Fehr	WSH	R	69	21	18	39	18	0.57