Shoot-out blues

...add another item to the list of bad stats that leaves me cold when I think of Raycroft holding the Leafs' single season win record: Raycroft's terrible record in the shoot-out. I'm not talking win/loss, I'm talking save percentage.

Raycroft has been beaten 13 times on 32 shots for a .594 sv%

That puts him 30th among goalies who've faced at least 10 shots and well below the league average of .678%

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Gotta wonder what Maurice is thinking when he picks his shooters.

Poni went 0 for 7 before Maurice looked elsewhere, Tucker was 1 for 5 before he was blanked against the Habs tonight (he's now a lumbering 1 for 6). Given how O'Neill and Steen buried the biscuit against NJ, you'd think Coach Maurice would go back to them...

The Hit and the Quip

The Hit

The Janssen hit came 1.33 seconds after Kaberle moved the puck to Cola and the play had clearly moved up ice (I didn't time it, but the low-talking ever quiet Steve Kouleas and his partner Ludzik had telestrated the entire play on the Score).

Janssen barely left his feet on the hit and it didn't look to me like an explicit elbow. Had Kabs not been admiring his pass, he wouldn't have been so vulnerable. The majority of the damage seemed to be done when Kaberle slammed into the boards after absorbing the initial hit.

I wonder what Leafs Nation would be saying this morning if the skates were on the other foot- if it was Wade Belak finishing a hit on Colin White? Would there be calls for suspensions? How would Leafs fans feel about the refs not calling it - a sign of incompetence or further defence for the guy in the blue and white? Would Maurice have put Belak back on the ice for another shift?

I'd like to see Janssen handed a multi-game suspension for this. It might be my Leaf blood talking, but it certainly seemed like a late hit with some intent to injure thrown in for good measure.

There really needs to be a disincentive administered by the league for these late hits before someone is seriously injured - either from the event or the retribution.

**UPDATED** And three games it is for Mr. Janssen...

The Quip

I'm not a huge fan of Jeff O'Neill (although 20 goals for his $1.5M salary is great value) - but I'm hoping JFJ resigns him next year just so we can get some refreshing quotes.

On the Janssen hit,

O'Neill called Janssen a "meathead" after the game, adding: "It's just more proof that some of these younger idiots in our league have no respect for what's going on out there. [Janssen] is probably a classic example, and the best defenceman in the NHL -- I think -- will be out for awhile. It's disappointing."

On the missed high-stick against Sundin:

"It's not like he is not noticeable out there, he's the best player on the ice, he's six-foot-five and he gets high-sticked in front of four referees. It's just kind of weird that there's not a call."

On Kerry Fraser and the myster goal:

"What's concerning to me is I don't know how [Fraser] makes that call with such conviction. It's a terrible call and it's unacceptable at this time of the year. The replay is clearly evident that it's not f---ing goalie interference. If it is goalie interference, call a penalty. We have to answer to people when we screw up, but I don't know what these guys have to do. It's a goddamn joke to be honest with you."

Sure beats the usual tripe we get in post game reports...

Draft Schmaft

I've been doing my best to keep track of the Leafs while I'm half a world away. The 11 hour time difference means I'm listening to Leaf games while eating breakfast - it's an interesting change. In fact, the only North American sports coverage I've seen locally in the last two weeks are two wire photos from NBA games, both involving the Lakers. The slug line didn't even give the score.
***UPDATED***

Inspired by a recent comment from K_r_Raven, I wanted to see how Quinn's tenure as GM compared to JFJ's in terms of moving and acquiring draft picks.

In Quinn's four years as GM, he dealt 10 draft picks including one first round pick and three second round picks.

In JFJ's three years as GM, he's dealth five draft picks including one first round pick and one second round pick.

Coming back the other way, Quinn was able to acquire six draft picks, none higher than the second round.

JFJ has only added one draft pick to the Leafs cupboard acquired a sixth rounder from Dallas for Nathan Perrot and a fourth rounder for Tellqvist (thanks to Wardo for that update). Considering JFJ's alleged "build from within strategy" I was quite surprised by the fact that he has pursued other options (free agency, college players) rather than dealing spare parts for draft picks...wonder if that's a sign of things to come at the trade deadline.

Anyways, here's the big list - I'll let you guys decide what to make of it...

Draft Picks Traded by Pat Quinn
6th round to the Islanders as part of the Berard/Potvin deal
3rd round to Los Angeles for Yanic Perrault
2nd round to Boston for Dmitri Kristich
5th round to Tampa as part of the Darcy Tucker deal
6th round to Tampa as part of the Darcy Tucker deal
2nd round to LA for Aki Berg and Adam Mair
4th round to Carolina for Tom Borasso
1st round to San Jose for Owen Nolan
2nd round to Carolina for Glen Wesley
6th round to Montreal for Doug Gilmour

Draft Picks Acquired by Pat Quinn
6th round from the Islanders as part of the Berard/Potvin deal
2nd round from Chicago for Sylvain Cote
3rd round from Tampa for Todd Warriner
4th round from Tampa as part of the Darcy Tucker Deal
3rd round from Washington for Dmitri Kristich
3rd round from Chicago for Igor Korolev

Draft Picks Traded by JFJ
1st round to NYR for Leetch
2nd round to NYR for Leetch
4th round to Carolina for Francis
4th round to Carolina for Jeff O’Neill
5th round to Columbus for Luke Richardson

Draft Picks Acquired by JFJ
6th from Dallas for Nathan Perrot
4th from Phoenix for Michael Tellqvist

Disasters

"I think that the exhibition games I've played, I've played pretty good."
- Jeff O'Neill, who was benched for the third period against the Sens.

O'Neill has played in five pre-season games, putting up the following numbers:

Leafs 3 Sens 1
O'Neill had 14:21 of ice time with a whopping 4:20 on the powerplay (wonder if that means something). One shot on net, 2 hits, +1, one assist and no penalties.

Leafs 5 Canadiens 1
14:04 of ice time, 2:22 on the powerplay. Two shots, 3 hits, no goals, no assists and a minus one on the night.

Leafs 4 Canadiens 3
14:46 of ice time, 4:57 on the powerplay. One shot, one hit, no goals, no assists, finishes even on the night.

Leafs 3 Sens 2 - the night of the missing game sheet.
O'Neill opened the scoring on this night and that's all the stats that are available.

Sens 5 Leafs 3
8:45 on the ice, 1:54 of that on the power play. No shots, no hits, a minor penalty for hooking that the Sens scored on to make it 4-2.

This is what the Leafs are getting for $1.5 million...

Jeff O'Neill scored 41 goals once, but he's a 40 goal scorer in the same sense that Glen Healey is a Stanely Cup winning goalie.

O'Neill's numbers have been in decline ever since that one blip of a season, but it seems whenever the Blue and White land a new player, their upside is all fans and media can see. From Mike Craig to Jeff O'Neill - it's a pretty scary meme that Leafs Nation tends to swallow whole.

Be interesting to see how a club that might be starved for goals handles this one and how the fans and media hordes react...

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One thing that many people may not know about print media is that the person who files the column - be it a stringer, reporter or columnist - does not write the headline. Still, I had to laugh when I surfed over to Slam today and saw the loony sub-head Leafs goalie situation complex: Disaster written all over it I knew it had to be Strachan.

This is a team that had a pedophilia ring run out of its former arena. A team that hasn't made the Stanley Cup finals in 40 years. A club that had a dispicable owner for 20 some-odd years who did jail time and caused long-lasting damage to the organization and many of its employees.

Now those are disasters.

Having to decide which goalie will sit on a bench for 60 games this year? Not so much.

And if they get it wrong, there's such a surplus of goalies on the market it's certainly not an error that can't be corrected. But I guess Leafs goalie situation complex: Team may carry 3 goalies or Leafs goalie situation complex: No clear cut back-up emerges doesn't sell newspapers or generate click-throughs.

Buy Outs All Around!

Joe O'Connor filed a story in Today's National Post (14/06/06 - Registration required) suggesting the Leafs may be have more players lined-up for buy-outs. The story, Maurice says Leafs must play to contend (who writes these headlines? What's next, Leafs must wear skates to play) ends with this thought:

But while Maurice may have been tight-lipped about what, exactly, the Leafs roster is going to look like next season, he preached the gospel truth in describing what style he wants his team to adopt for 2006-07.

"We are going to play the game that we believe you have to play to win the Stanley Cup," he said. "It's the game that you are seeing now: It's a two-man forecheck ... it's a two-man neutral zone. It's all transition and speed."

It is everything the Leafs, on most nights, were not in 2005-06.

The lumbering Leafs featured a lead-footed Jason Allison, a disinterested Jeff O'Neill and an injury-prone Nik Antropov at forward, while the defence corps boasted a trio of tortoises in Aki Berg, Wade Belak and, before he was traded to New Jersey, Ken Klee.

Belak and O'Neill are among the 12 Toronto players currently under contract for next year. Mats Sundin, Tomas Kaberle, Darcy Tucker, Domi, Chad Kilger, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Mikael Tellqvist, J.S. Aubin, Alexander Steen and Staffan Kronwall are the others. O'Neill, who butted heads with Maurice in Carolina, is rumoured to be headed for a buyout, along with Domi. [emphasis added].

Mark Zwolinski of the Star covered the same event but he only mentions Belfour and Domi as buy-out candidates - no mention of O'Neill.

In an interesting wrinkle, Zwolinski claims the Domi buyout cannot be reduced by a third or split over two seasons, as per my earlier reading of the CBA.

Reports have floated for over two weeks now that the Leafs will buy out the last year of Domi's contract, an option that will cost them $1.25 million (all figures U.S.).

Under the new collective bargaining agreement, the total sum would go against the salary cap for 2006-07, since Domi signed his current deal after he was 35 years of age.

Not to be outdone, the Sun got in on the projected buy-out action too with an article by Bill Lankhof that is so goofy I didn't even want to link to it. It's like Lankhof needed an additional 85 words for his column and assembled a blurb, ransom-note style, from previous Leaf headlines. One thing I'll give him credit for is the blurb's closing line. It really should be the new end piece or "-30-" for every sports column in the Sun. Seriously.)

So where does that leave the Leafs and the buyouts? Will they be throwing around buy-out money like Charles Barkley introduces bar patrons to windows or will Domi be back with the Blue and White?

Personally, I can't see JFJ buying out anyone beyond Belfour and I'd give even odds on Domi. He's a GM in desperate need of good news and quick wins. When you consider the McCabe contract negotiations are proceeding about as smoothly as most middle-east peace plans; the Owen Nolan decision is likely to be announced right at the deadline for buy-outs; and the over-riding fact that JFJ is the guy who tendered and signed off on all of these potential buy-outs in the first place, each "correction" he makes just puts another bullet in the gun to his head.

We'll know soon enough. Buy-outs can be tendered from June 15 or 48 hours after the final game of the Stanley Cup final to the end of June.


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Tedesco, Ferguson and me...

The front page of today's (25/03/06) National Post is dominated by a story from Theresa Tedesco on the sad state of my beloved Toronto Maple Leafs.

Up front, I want to make clear that I'm a big fan of Tedesco's book detailing the take-over of the Leafs from a publicly traded company to the behemoth that is MLSE, but after reading her story today, I have to say she might be better off in the FP and away from the sports pages.

The article is on the mark when it sticks to ownership and business decisions, it's when she speaks to the sporting side it makes about as much sense as some of Quinn's recent coaching decisions.

It should also be noted that this piece is clearly an effort at damage control by friends of Mr. Ferguson.

Let's have a look...

TORONTO - Amid the public wrenching over whether the Toronto Maple Leafs will qualify for the NHL playoffs, the owners of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment Ltd. say they have been privately watching events unfold pretty much according to plan.

And although no one at MLSE will admit it publicly, the Leafs' post-season prospects for the next couple of seasons are not expected to be any more promising.

Ok so far, I pretty much couldn't agree with her more. Most experts said last September that this club would be life and death to make the playoffs. They're currently losing 3-1 to the Habs (make that a 6-2 loss), in the latest of many "must-win" games.

Paragraph 3 is where Ms. Tedesco starts to sound like she's dipped into the Captain Morgan with Harry and Bob.

That unspoken prognosis is largely the consequence of a youth movement advocated by Leafs general manager John Ferguson Jr. in a blueprint he presented two years ago to MLSE's owners -- a strategy that, sources say, will likely result in the firing of head coach Pat Quinn at the end of this season, as well as the departure of fan favourite Tie Domi and a handful of other underperforming veterans.

There are several problems with this paragraph, if JFJ's advocating or planning a yourth movement:

Why didn't he buy out more of the team in the off-season? Sundin, Belfour and McCabe account for about 35% of the team's salary.

Why did JFJ sign so many older players, many of whom (Domi, Berg, etc.) were inked to multi-year deals?

Why didn't he move all of the team's unrestricted free agents at the trade deadline for picks and prospects?

Tedesco continues, with a greater focus on JFJ's business decisions - moving the St.Johns team to Toronto, consolidating training, medical staff and practice facilites and increasing scouting staff. But when she gets back to the team that JFJ "inherieted" she's back on some thin ice.

Making matters worse, Mr. Ferguson also inherited a team that had traded away its top draft choices seven times in the past 10 years.

JFJ traded a first and second round pick and prospects for Brian Leetch. Leetch went on to play 15 games for the Leafs.

However, the 310-day NHL lockout quickly tested the company's resolve and the general manager's ability to walk the talk. Three months before the lockout began in September, 2004, Mr. Ferguson re-signed Mr. Belfour, a 40-year-old Vezina Trophy winner and all-star goalie, to a two-year contract plus an option for a third year -- totalling US$17-million -- despite his advancing age.

JFJ should be fired for this contract alone.

In the summer of 2004, Ed Belfour was 39 years old with chronic back injuries. There is wide-spread talk of salary caps, long-term work stoppages and general uncertainty.

JFJ sweeps into action, signing Belfour to a three year contract worth $15.5 million (2 years at $7million, an option at $1.5m) that includes a no-trade clause.

Think about this for a minute.

There's no hockey on the horizon for a minimum of six months, and more likely a year. Your goalie is 39 years old and requires invasive back surgery. He hasn't made it out of the second round of the playoffs in years. He looked quite average in the series against the Flyers and he didn't steal a single game in the playoffs.

For this, he gets a multi-year deal with a bonus and a no trade clause.

Who in their right mind would tender this contract?

I get the feeling I put more thought into managing my rotisserie team than this guy does running the Leafs.

Oh, and let's not forget Ms. Tedesco's article and the master plan for a youth movement (anchored by a 40 year old goalie with a bad back). Ms. Tedesco continues:

The following year, in June, 2005, MLSE's board reviewed the progress of Mr. Ferguson's strategic plan as the lockout appeared to be coming to an end. This time, the general manager had to address the fate of a handful of players in the twilight years of their careers who were set to become unrestricted free agents.

I would have added three words to that last sentence, "by doing nothing."

The Leafs, like all teams, had the opportunity to buy-out any existing contracts. Detroit moved on Hatcher, Whitney, Joseph and McCarty; the Rangers parted ways with Holik; the Flyers with Amonte, LeClair; etc.

About 40% of the Leafs' payroll is held by three players: Sundin ($6.3M/year); Belfour ($5.6M/year) and McCabe ($3.5M/Year). Biggest flock of free agents in the history of the NHL and the Leafs did nothing. This inaction left the club with $24 M to sign 19 players.

Under pressure to make a move, Mr. Ferguson extended Mr. Quinn's coaching contract for an undisclosed amount.

He followed up with a series of deals that gave little outward indication that MLSE was planning an overhaul of its most prized asset.

For example, shortly after the NHL governors and the NHL Players' Association agreed to end the lockout in July, 2005, which included a US$39-million salary cap, he allowed Messrs. Roberts and Nieuwendyk to bolt to the Florida Panthers and cut ties with winger Robert Reichel. He replaced those veterans with three others -- Eric Lindros and Jason Allison, both signed as free agents, and Jeff O'Neill, whom the Leafs secured by giving up a conditional draft pick.

Remember, this is part of the master-plan to build with youth from within.

Let's look at the rest of JFJ's post-labour stoppage decisions (no snickering please):

a) acquiring Jeff O'Neill who's clearly out of shape, who didn't play during the lockout, and who's goal scoring prowess has been going down like a coked-up Paris Hilton in a room full of camcorders. After one 30 goal season (likely a contract year) he went on to score 14 goals in 2003-2004. Guess what? He's potted 16 goals for the Leafs this season and is on target for 18.

b) Signing Eric Lindros - a guy that has averaged about 50 games a season for the last five years. Guess what? Lindros played 33 games for the Leafs before going out for the year.

c) signing Jason Alison to an incentive laden contract that's going to cost the club $4.5M (yup, $4.5M). Has any player since Craig Janney put a softer 50+ points on the board than Alison? 30 of his points have to be second assists. His plus minus is horrific, and many of his mistakes are of the terminal variety (it was his giveaway that led to game winners from Healty and Grier). In a game dominated by speed you need a calendar to time this guy; I'm surprised a crazed leaf fan hasn't climbed the glass, jumped in the zamboni and drove over him. Lord knows Alison couldn't outskate it, even if it had three flat tires…

d) signing Tie Domi to a 2 year, $2.5M deal. Domi has one goal in his last 49 games. When Ondrus got run from behind in Pittsburgh, Domi did nothing. When he was benched, he whined. When there were trade rumours, he threatend to retire. This is leadership? This is character?

e) talking Antropov out of playing in Russia and qualify him for 2 years at $1.1M; Antropov has only once played more than 65 games in a season and has averaged 24 points a season. Furthermore, in 28 playoff games, he has 5 points. Guess what? Antropov is on target to play 58 games this year and score 25 points – just like has his whole career. Good thing JFJ locked him up for one more season, wouldn't want a player like that to get away.

f) signing Aki Berg for $1.1M - think about that for a second - a fifth or sixth string defenceman for nearly triple the league minimum salary. Carolina picked up Mike Commodore for a third round pick, he makes $500K; Buffalo picked up Lydman for a 3rd round pick, he makes $700K. We resigned a pylon and gave him a raise.

g) Paying Wade Belak $720,000 - that's $270K above the league minimum and about $719,000 more than he's worth.

h) Landing Marius Czerkawski for $500K and then refusing to play him. He was a healthy scratch for over 40 games this year, which is important to consider because…

i) Anson Carter wanted to play for the Leafs this season, but the Leafs couldn't afford his salary demands of $1M. Carter has played in 70 games, notching 28 goals, 21 assists and a +3 rating. Belak (43 games, no goals, 3 assists, -14) and Czerkawski (27 games, 5 goals, 2 assists, -6) have a total salary of 1.22 million and have collectively played in 70 games combining for five goals, five assists and a combined rating of -20.

Ms. Tedesco concludes:

Leaf loyalists may have been given a taste of what lies ahead for the team at the NHL trade deadline two weeks ago. Fans and pundits urged Mr. Ferguson to make a drastic move, even speculating that captain Mats Sundin should be traded.
But Mr. Ferguson didn't budge, instead completing two minor deals.

I think the dreaded third-way lies ahead, call it Babcockian. It's not making a bold move like loading up for a playoff run or selling off any and all assets that won't be returning next year, it's standing-pat and hoping for the best.

Even the Islanders figured out the best option for this season.

Think of that - in his final act, Mike Milbury may have become a better GM than JFJ...


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