What's the going rate for Kulemin?

Nikolai Kulemin is a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) whose contract is up for renewal. There has been a great deal of speculation as to what it might take, in terms of dollar and term, to get Kulemin back on the Leafs.

Last season, Kulemin carried a cap hit of $1.48M with a salary of $850,000. Under the CBA, he automatically qualifies for a 10% raise, meaning the minimum salary he can earn is $935,000. He will of course, sign for a more substantial raise that reflects his potential and his relative importance to the team.

Now, I have to say that I have no idea what Nikolai Kulemin is worth. I mean, I’m writing this while drinking beer on a Monday afternoon – so consider the source - but I thought I’d take a stab at a few of the variables involved in his upcoming contract negotiations.

1. What contracts (cap hit and term) have other RFAs with similar stats to Kulemin signed; and
2. What are his arbitration rights? Can Kulemin (or the Leafs) go to a third party to set Kulemin’s salary?

Comparables

In order to get an idea of the compensation Kulemin might be in line for, I wanted to find players that have put up similar numbers.

I limited the field to players that were RFAs at the end of the 2008-09 season. By looking at players that put up totals that are in the same range as Kulemin, we can look at the resulting contracts that they signed to get a sense of the going rate for 30 to 40 point RFA.

In terms of production, Kulemin’s two years in the NHL have been pretty similar:

73GP 15G 16A 31Pts
78GP 16G 20A 36Pts

There aren’t many comparable RFAs from the 2008-09 season, but here are five RFA forwards with numbers that are somewhat similar to Kulemin’s most recent year. Here are their boxcars and the deals they signed back in 2009:

Brandon Dubinksy 82GP 13G 28A 41PTS 2 years, $1.85M/year
Ryan Callahan 81GP 22G 18A 40PTS 2 years, $2.3M/year
Chad LaRose 81GP 19G 12A 31PTS 2 years, $1.7M/year
Kyle Brodziak 79GP 11G 16A 27PTS 3 years, $1.15M/year
Kyle Wellwood 74GP 18G 9A 27PTS 1 year, $1.2M/year

Based on these numbers, I would think Kulemin is looking at a payday of $1.75M to $2.3 million per year. I’d guess – and this is nothing more than idle speculation – Kulemin inks a two to three year deal with a $2.1M annual cap hit.

That guess, and these numbers, don't take into consideration arbitration...

Arbitration Rights

By my reading of the CBA, Kulemin is eligible for arbitration. But of course, nothing with the CBA is that straightforward.

Arbitration eligibility is based on the age that a player signs his first SPC and his years of professional service. Kulemin signed his entry level deal in May 2007, when he was 20, but by the terms of the CBA he’s considered 21 years old:

As used in this Article, "age," including "First SPC Signing Age," means a Player's age on September 15 of the calendar year in which he first signs an SPC regardless of his actual age on the date he signs such SPC.

According to 12.1 (a) of the CBA, players who sign their SPC at 21 must have three (3) years of professional service to be arbitration eligible.

Kulemin has two seasons with the Leafs and one year with the KHL’s Metallurg Magnitogorsk (a team name that I want to load up with umlauts and claim is an ‘80s metal band). I have no idea if that season in the KHL counts as a year of “professional service” as there’s no definition of “professional service” in the CBA. Helpful, huh?

The CBA does define a “professional games” as:

any NHL Games played, all minor league regular season and playoff games and any other professional games played, including but not limited to, games played in any European league or any other league outside North America, by a Player pursuant to his SPC.

So if Kulemin’s time in the KHL counts as profeesional games, I’m going to presume that a year of professional games is a year of professional service. That means Kulemin has played three professional seasons, which means he's eligible to take the Leafs to arbitration. That means the Leafs don't hold all of the leverage in these negotiations and, in addition to the so-called threat of bolting to the KHL, Kulemin and his agent can also seek higher compensation by taking their case to a third party.

We should know by the first week of July where exactly Kulemin and the Leafs stand...

Burke, Kessel and the Long Term Injury Exception

There seems to be a commonly held perception that Brian Burke and the Toronto Maple Leafs hold the leverage in the on-going saga of Phil Kessel. I’m not so sure.

Kessel, a restricted free agent (RFA), is looking for a multi-year deal north of $4 million annually while the Bruins have just $2M in cap room to spare.

It sounds like the perfect scenario for the Leafs. They tender an RFA contract meeting Kessel’s salary demands, the Bruins are in tough to match, and the Leafs get a 21 year old, 30+ goal scorer for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round draft pick. Not only that, but the Blue and White poach a key part of a divisional rival’s line-up.

Sadly for the Leafs, the Bruins’ cap situation isn’t quite that dire. Because of Kessel's off-season shoulder surgery, Chiarelli can use the CBA’s Bona-Fide Long-Term Injury/Illness Exception to park Kessel and his big shiny new contract on the long-term injury reserve list. Doing so not only permits the Bruins to go over the cap, they don't have to address how Kessel’s contract affects the salary cap until Kessel is ready to return.

Unfortunately for Burke and the Leafs, Kessel isn’t due back until late November or early December. which is more than enough time for Chirarelli to explore his options to find an additional million or two in cap room.

With the IR exception in mind, I can understand why Chiarelli is confident he can match any RFA offer and why the Kessel rumours have turned away from RFA offer sheets to a trade.

For those of you who hate plain language writing, the CBA explains it thusly:

50.10 (d) VII The replacement Player Salary and Bonuses for any Player(s) that replace(s) an unfit-to-play Player may be added to the Club's Averaged Club Salary until such time as the Club's Averaged Club Salary reaches the Upper Limit. A Club may then exceed the Upper Limit due to the addition of replacement Player Salary and Bonuses of Players who have replaced an unfit-to-play Player, provided, however, that when the unfit-to-play player is once again fit to play (including any period such Player is on a Bona Fide Long-Term Injury/Illness Exception Conditioning Loan to another league), the Club shall be required to once again reduce its Averaged Club Salary to a level at or below the Upper Limit prior to the Player being able to rejoin the Club.

Hollweg: A 5th round pick for a 4th line guy

The Leafs acquired Ryan Hollweg from the New York Rangers in exchange for Pittsburgh’s 2009 fifth round pick (picked up by the Leafs in the Hal Gill trade).

Hollweg is best known for being Chris Simon’s piñata (Madres de Dios - sin dulce!) an incident that led to the longest suspension in the history of the NHL.

An RFA at the end of the season, Hollweg was 23rd in the NHL in hits last season, an impressive stat considering he only logged about twelve shifts or 8 minutes of ice a night for the Rangers.

I have to say, I haven’t been this excited about a transaction since the Leafs signed UFA Mike Blaisdell in 1987.

I’m sorry, did I say excited? I meant bored.

I think, "Meh" is the word I'm looking for here.

The acquisition puts the Leafs well over the 23 man NHL roster limit (and gives them about 10 guys ideally suited to 4th line duty).

Incredibly, Fletcher told 640AM that he’d like to add yet another forward (hopefully, someone who can play on at least the 3rd line) and one more D-man.

Given the number of players on the current roster, there’s not much use in calculating the Leaf’s salary cap as clearly quite a few players and their salary dollars are headed out of town.

That said, here’s the current Leafs Roster, listed alphabetically, with each player’s cap hit (taken from NHLNumbers. Oh, and if you’re doing any math, don’t forget to factor in Raycroft’s and Tucker’s buy-out.)

Forwards
1. Alex Steen ($1.7M)
2. Alexei Ponikarovsky ($2.105M)
3. Boyd Devereaux ($575K)
4. Dominic Moore ($700K)
5. Jamal Mayers ($1.33M)
6. Jason Blake ($4M)
7. Jiri Tlusty ($855K)
8. Mark Bell ($2.167M)
9. Matt Stajan ($1.75M)
10. Mikhail Grabovski ($850)
11. Nik Antropov ($2.05M)
12. Niklas Hagman ($3M)
13. Nikolai Kulemin ($1.48M)
14. Ryan Hollweg ($512K)

Likely to the Marlies:
15. Bates Battaglia
16. Brent Aubin
17. Darryl Boyce
18. Jeremy Williams
19. John Mitchell
20. Kris Newbury
21. Robbie Earl

Defence
1. Anton Stralman ($732K)
2. Bryan McCabe ($5.75M)
3. Carlo Colaiacovo ($1.283M)
4. Ian White ($850K)
5. Jeff Finger ($3M)
6. Jonas Frogen (TBD)
7. Pavel Kubina ($5M)
8. Staffan Kronwall ($487.5)
9. Tomas Kaberle ($4.25M)
10. Luke Schenn (TBD)


Goal
1. Vesa Toskala ($4M)
2. Curtis Joseph ($700K)

3. Justin Pogge ($616K)

I Got Sixteen Days, Got a Bible and a Rosary

Three quick(ish) points today:

1. The Interim-GM Title: Why all the confusion?

Is anyone else really sick and tired of the media’s hang-up on Fletcher’s interim title?

Was there this much hand-wringing and bloviating (Hockey News I’m looking at you!) when Flyer’s Interim-GM Paul Holmgren signed Mike Knuble and Sami Kapanen to contract extensions? Were the columnists in Philly and at the National outlets worried about the impact of trading Peter Forsberg?

To keep it more local, did Feschuk or Smith have an aneurysm when Embry dealt Jalen Rose, a 2006 first-round pick and an undisclosed amount of cash for Antonio Davis? Or when Embry unloaded Aaron Williams for a second round pick?

Was anyone concerned that the incoming President and GM of the Raptors or the Flyers might not approved of these decisions that were made by their interim predecessors?

I thought not.

So why all the concern about Fletcher? Why all the columns about the "circus" down at MLSE?

Not that the media would ever lower themselves to read a blog (they’re far more interested in telling people what Leaf fans think than they are in engaging in any sort of dialogue with said fan base) but if any of them should happen to swing by this lowly spot, I’ll make it easy:

Like Embry and Holmgren, Cliff Fletcher is an interim GM. Fletcher has a 19th month contract with MLSE. Until the organization is able to hire the President/GM of their choice to run my beloved Toronto Maple Leafs, Fletcher is the GM and has the power and authority to make whatever moves he sees fit to improve this club.

It’s not complicated…

2. Twenty-seven days or less...

The biggest hockey decisions facing the Leafs will be over and done with in less than a month, twenty seven days at the outside to be precise.

June 15 to June 30: Window for buy-outs
June 20: Pavel Kubina’s trade window opens
June 20-21: Amateur Draft
June 25: Deadline to tender qualifying offer to RFAs
June 26: Negotiations with other teams’ RFAs permitted
June 30: Setting of Salary Cap upper and lower limits
July 1: Free agency begins for RFAs and UFAs (the heavies will be gone by July 7)

When you consider that Fletcher first contacted Wilson on May 27 and it took just under two weeks to get Wilson’s name on a contract, even if the Leafs started negotiations with a GM yesterday the earliest they could likely sign a contract is June 23 - two-days after the entry draft.

And if they did hire a new GM in that time frame, he would have all of two days to issue offers to the Leafs' RFAs, a week to conclude any buy-outs, and eight days to prep for the UFA/RFA silly-season.

Media hand-wringing aside, one look at the calendar - and the reality of the time involved in executive recruitment – makes it pretty clear that Fletcher and his team will be the ones driving the bus through the most important part of the off-season.

3. MLSE low-balled Wilson and other great media insights

I Love that MLSE is putting their news conferences up on the Leafs web-site. The sooner they can figure out a way to disintermediate the media the better.

For those of you who would rather hear from Wilson and Fletcher first hand (instead of say, hearing their comments, answers and thoughts through media filters that brought us such great insights as the Avery cancer slur, the MLSE low-balling Wilson with a $600K contract offer, and Mats signing with Montreal) the media conference is available in three parts at the Leafs web site.

On Tuesday night I was chatting with one of the reporters who covered the event and he said Wilson spoke for 3+ hours and was very accommodating with the media. He also said Wilson was an astounding story teller…we’ll see if that relationship is as cozy when the Leafs have dropped seven in a row next February and the high water mark of media analysis is Simmons wondering what ever happened to Walt McKechnie…

Nine Tips for Media Types

I really appreciate the quality of the comments on this site, they often make me stop and think.

Case in point: The feedback on my Cox post deserved a response and my comment mushroomed into this (rather long) post.

I think we'd all agree that there certainly couldn't be much more Leafs coverage. There are upwards of 30 reporters covering the Leafs. To put that in perspective, the entire media contingent covering Queen's Park (the Province of Ontario's legislature) is just 31 journalists.

In addition to having their own TV channel, the Leafs are the lead item on each and every TSN and Sportsnet broadcast. Each paper has columnists and staff reporters covering the team. There are lunch time radio broadcasts devoted to all things blue and white. And then there's the comments at the Globe and Mail, filled by people who seem to spend more time complaining about the amount of Leaf coverage than they do cheering for their own teams.

So the quantity is unarguably there, but the quality side seems to be a bit lacking. How hard is it for a reporter or editorial staff to use a search function to scan the NHL CBA? How many times are reporters going to miss that both Tucker and McCabe have NMCs? If the media are unsure about a no-movement clause, why not phone the NHLPA, the agent or ask the player? Isn't that one of the benefits of being a trained professional with full access to sources?

That said, I do feel some sympathy for the media who cover the Leafs. There's so much media competition in this town (and with this team) that I can't imagine the pressure they're under from their editors and producers to cultivate sources and land big scoops.

I think this combination of editorial pressure and competitive media marketplace is the big reason that Cox has been publicly fellating JFJ in so many of his columns. Cox knows Ferguson will eventually land on his feet in the NHL and, if Cox has laid on enough adjectives, he may have cultivated an inside source in Ferguson - one that will be very helpful in fueling Cox with plenty of material for his faux-indignation-fueled tirades against MLSE.

That or Cox is looking to land his next book deal and has JFJ in his sites (admittedly, Cox did file a pretty solid piece in yesterday's paper).

Still, given the pressures and competition, it's hard to believe the amount of misinformation, poor fact checking and general lack of imagination that permeates so much of the Leafs media coverage. I'd like to think with their access, the reporters who file day in day out on all things Leaf might be able to come up with something more compelling then who's wearing the red jersey at practice, fake trade rumours or faux panic over the lack of formal job interviews conducted by MLSE.

Rather than just bitch and moan about the state of Leaf coverage and without much thought (like most of my posts) here are 9 ideas, off the top of my head, that I'd love to see followed-up by those who cover hockey and/or the Leafs:

1. More first person source reporting. This was one of my favourite articles last year - a Brian Burke first-person diary during the trade deadline. Could we get something similar from anyone at MLSE? Please? If not, I'd settle for any first-person insight at the GM level.
   
2. Use your access to really take readers behind the scenes. The consensus is the Leafs need to hold on to their draft choices and draft wisely. Can fans maybe get a profile (or two or three) of the Leaf scouts that will be helping make the decisions on draft day? What gems have they discovered? What do their peers on other clubs think of them? What's the hierarchy in the scouting department and how do draft day decisions get made? Maybe a day in the life of a Leaf scout...or a day in the life of a top OHL prospect. Gare Joyce's work on this was great stuff and surely demonstrated there's an audience for it. Wouldn't it be nice to get a bit more on these kids than Don Cherry and four or five of the top ranked 18 year olds passing around a microphone during a 45 second spot on HNIC?
   
3. Stop telling us what Leaf fans think. Leafs Nation is not a homogeneous entity and does not think with one mind. Even if Leaf fans did all agree, would anyone care? Moreover, it's a lazy literary device at best and completely misleading at worse.
   
4. Help the fans get insights from the coaches. The Leafs have the worst PK in the league and it's killing them. When was the last time anyone saw an interview with the special teams coach, or even with Maurice, where the Leafs approach to the PK was analyzed? What's working, what's not? Compare and contrast the Leafs' approach by interviewing special team coaches on more successful clubs. (And it doesn't have to be just the PK. There's the whole issue of zone v. man-to-man defence; team toughness/ use of enforcers; the shoot-out; power play; adapting to opponents; etc.)
   
5. Less of the trade rumour BS. Before the trade deadline there were, what, maybe 4 trades in the NHL? Yet every columnist weighs in with trade rumour after trade rumour, none of which come true and none of which advance a story of any relevance. (And can someone fine Dreger every time he uses the questionable at best "Sources are saying..." approach. If he had to put a twoonie in a jar for every time he used it he could make a hefty-donation to a worthy cause.)
   
6. More long form player profiles please. Joe O'Connor has being doing this masterfully with retired players over at the National Post, why not do it with the current or retired Leafs? (Or how about an update on Boyd Devereaux's record label?)
   
7. Help demistify the CBA. This is one of the best posts I've seen on the matter, it's by a blogger and it's over a year old. Why can't newsrooms create similar content? How about top 10 CBA myths (e.g. players with NMC can't be bought out; injured players don't count against the cap; etc.). Since the signing of the CBA has the frequency of offer sheets to RFAs increased? What steps can clubs take to protect their RFAs (e.g. team initiated arbitration)? With Wellwood and Stajan as the Leafs main RFAs, what odds do agents and other insiders give that another club will tender them a contract? How does the fact that the Leafs traded their second round pick to Phoenix for (gulp!) Perreault, limit their ability to tender RFA offer sheets?
   
8. More on the Big Picture. Where does Leafs management sit on the the Moneyball vs. "Intangibles" spectrum? I've read great stuff about the San Jose Sharks and Columbus Blue Jackets innovative use of statistics. What are the Leafs up to? What do they make of this? On another topic: how does player development work, why is Buffalo so amazing at it and what are the Marlies doing to help develop Leaf prospects?
   
9. More on the Business of Sport: What has the impact of moving the farm club to Toronto been? What do players who played both in St. John's and at the Ricoh think of the move? Crunch the numbers - what has it meant for the salary cap being able to send guys across the street? Has it had any impact on the Leafs ability to recruit and retain management? With precedents in Chicago and Philadelphia is this a model we should expect to see more of? How does the Leafs system compare with clubs that don't have their own AHL affiliate? On-glass advertising, are the Leafs for or against? Same goes with advertising on jerseys, where does MLSE stand?

As Leaf/hockey fans, I'd love to know what stories do you think we're missing out on and what type of coverage would you like to see more of?

If you were the editor/producer for a day what would you tell your reporters to work on?

Are there any guys out there who stand out? Anyone a must-read for you?

If I woke up on Monday and was a majority shareowner of MLSE, here's what I would do:

1. Fire JFJ.
2. Hire Mastermind GM
3. ---
4. Win Stanley Cup

===

I vented earlier about the Leafs man games lost to injury meme and sure enough in the very first post-elimination story to hit the wire (filed by Pierre Le Brun for CP) there it was: the most man games lost to injury.

Boo hoo.

Yeah, the Leafs did miss 353 man games, but before we use that little meme as a crutch let's have a look at how that total is generated:

Injuries

Player	Games Missed
Wozniewski	59
Peca	47
Wellwood	34
Colaiacovo	34
Antropov	24
Tucker	26
Kubina	20
Ponikarovsky	11
Kaberle	8
Sundin	7
Misc. Scrubs	79

Knock of Woz and the day to day injuries suffered by the likes of Newbury and suddenly 130+ of those games disappear.

Antropov is good to miss a quarter of the season every year, so let's not let JFJ's tear ducts go into overdrive just yet. Add in Cola's trips to the IR and that total of 353 is down to 150 or so, which is likely low for for most NHL clubs.

Did injuries hurt the Leafs? Yes, but is the league-leading stat really all that revealing or is it a red herring? Unless Woz is the missing link for the Leafs, this shouldn't provide any sort of excuse for JFJ not to be jettisoned.

===
I thought I'd provide a quick update on contract status and cap hits for the Leafs roster as I'm sure we'll all be playing armchair GM for the next few days. (In fact, I'm going really get into playing armchair GM this year. On Tuesday, I'm going to pretend it's NHL trade deadline day. In the spirit of JFJ, I'll be cleaning up my files, setting up some iPod playlists - really digging The Island's Don't Call Me Whitney, Bobby - going for a long lunch and generally sitting on my hands. It's going to be a great day of wasted opportunities. Just to be safe, I'm going to leave my cell phone at home...

The Leafs have a number of UFAs that they need to walk run away from and a surprising number of RFAs that should make for some interesting negotiations (even though noted Grandma pusher Bobby Clarke isn't a GM anymore, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of the Leaf RFAs like White have a stupid bucket of money thrown at them).

I'd like to fill in these charts to indicate who has a no-trade clause and who has a no-movement clause to make roster reconstruction projects a bit easier.

FORWARDS

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	o7-08 Cap Hit
Antropov	F	UFA	$1.07M	---
Battaglia	F	UFA	$500K	---
Devereaux	F	UFA	$450K	---
Green	F	UFA	$500K	---
Kilger	F	Signed to 2009	$900K	$900K
Newbury	F	Signed to 2009	$450K	$450K
Ondrus	F	Signed to 2008	$475K	$475K
O'Neill	F	UFA	$1.5M	---
Peca	F	UFA	$2.5M	---
Perrault	F	UFA	$700K	---
Pohl	F	Signed to 2009	$463K	$463K
Ponikarovsky	F	RFA	$713	---
Stajan	F	Signed to 2008	$875K	$875K
Steen	F	Signed to 2008	$901K	$901K
Tucker	F	Signed to 2012	$1.59M	$3M
Sundin	F	Club option	$6.33M	TBD
Wellwood	F	Signed to 2008	$875K	$875K
Westrum	F	Signed to 2008	$463K	$463K
Williams	F	RFA	$507K	---

Defence

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	o7-08 Cap Hit
Belak	D	Signed to 2008	$670K	$670K
Colaiacovo	D	RFA	$825K	---
Gill	D	Signed to 2009	$2.075M	$2.075M
Harrison	D	RFA	$450K	---
Kronwall	D	RFA	$625	---
Kaberle	D	Signed to 2011	$4.25M	$4.25M
Kubina	D	Signed to 2010	$5M	$5M
McCabe	D	Signed to 2011	$5.75M	$5.75M
White	D	RFA	$453K	---
Wozniewski	D	Signed to 2008	$463	$463

Goalies

Player	Pos	Status	06-07 Cap Hit	o7-08 Cap Hit
Aubin	G	UFA	$525K	---
Raycroft	G	Signed to 2009	$2M	$2M

Short Shifts

JFJ's New Deal
I'm happy that JFJ's extension gives him one less thing to worry about. While I don't think he's the best man for the job, as a Leaf fan I wish him nothing but success. Huge Sucess. Drought-breaking, miracle making, smile inducing, career defining success.

The Tipping Point for Tucker
When I look at at how many teams are backed up right against the cap, I can only conclude that many GMs are still sorting out the best way to deal with the CBA. I think in seasons ahead we'll see many GMs move away from maxing-out at the cap, giving them a bit more flexibility to add parts as needed (Tom Benjamin has an interesting post on that topic here).

To that end, I'm wondering if the Leafs might be feeling a bit of a pinch if the salary cap doesn't go up again next year. Dave Johnson at Hockey Analysis thinks Tucker may have to go in order to balance the books...I can't see JFJ having the cojones to pull that off...be interesting to see how this one plays out. Certainly as Tucker approaches/exceeds the $4M barrier, the amount of cap space remaining for JFJ gets critically smaller...which leads me to the next blurb...

Leaf RFAs and Compensation
I know it's like game 23 or something and all of this is very far off, but the impact of RFA contract demands could be crucial for the Leafs next year, especially vis-a-vis Tucker's future with the club.

Here's a quick RFA refresher from the CBA (section 10.2.B.ii):

In order to receive a Right of First Refusal or Draft Choice Compensation...the Prior Club of a Restricted Free Agent must tender to the Player...a "Qualifying Offer"...on at least the following terms and conditions:

If the RFA's earnings are $660,000 or less, he must be given a qualifying offer at 110% of the current salary (a 10% raise). This applies to White, Wozniewski, Harrison, Tvellquist and Bell.

Players earning $660,001 to $1M, must be given a qualifying offer at 105% of their current salary. This applies to Colaiacovo, Kronwall, Ponikarovsky, Suglabov.

Antropov is the only RFA on the Leafs earning more than $1M - RFAs earning in excess of $1M can be qualified at their current salary.

Now keep in mind that 5 to 10% raise doesn't get the player signed, it just guarantees that the Leafs receive compensation if another team (hello Philadelphia!) does offer a contract to a RFA and the Leafs do not match that offer. In the event that does occur, the Leafs would be eligible for the following compensation:

Offer	Compensation
Under $660,000	None
Over $660,000 to $1 Million	Third Round Pick
$1 Million to $2 Million	Second Round Pick
$2 Million to $3 Million	First and Third Round Picks
$3 Million to $4 Million	First, Second and Third Round Picks
$4 Million to $5 Million	Two First Round Picks, a Second and a Third Round Pick
Over $5 Million	Four First Round Picks

If I'm another GM, I'd gladly double Ponikarovski's salary, tender him an offer sheet at $1.5M and lose a second round pick as compensation. Hell, offer White $900K if you've got the cap space and you get White and Poni on your team for $2.4M and a second and third round pick. A solid move if you're an eastern division rival and JFJ has limited cap space after signing Tucker at $4M...

Deadlines

With so little going on in Leaf land, I thought I’d post a quick bit on the off-season moves and a longer bit on what it might mean for the future of the organization…

The Good
JFJ redeemed himself by buying out Domi and declining Belfour’s option. He managed to plug the 3 and 4 spots on D although he paid a ridiculous price in the process.

The Bad
There’s a glut of goalies out there and it’s clearly a buyer’s market. The Leafs trade one of their top prospects for…a goalie.

The Ugly (or maybe just confusing)
Wade Belak gets a contract extension.


I’ve been thinking about these off-season moves and how it positions the Leafs for the season ahead.

While the front office appears to have solidified the blue line brigade, I have no idea who’s going to score on this team, especially in five on five situations. Just like last season, goaltending remains a giant spinning roulette wheel that could come up 00 or .879 (one of the worst save percentages in the league for all of you TML scrapbookers out there).

I’ve come to the (common and not so shocking conclusion) that the lack of depth at forward, the question marks between the pipes and the improvements of several teams in the east means the Leafs will once again be life and death to make the playoffs.

Thinking about the overall health and direction of this organization (big-picture stuff here, think JFJ’s dreaded P-word, but with an actual plan attached) the future of this franchise will likely turn on JFJ’s abilities at the trade deadline. Stick with me here.

As far as I can tell, there are three ways* the season can unfold. In all three cases the trade deadline looms large:

1. The Leafs stink it up and are clearly out of the playoff hunt
2. The Leafs put up a decent season and are a virtual lock to make the post-season dance
3. The Leafs play slightly better than .500 hockey, flirt with the 95 point mark and have decent odds to scrape into 8th

In the first scenario, the Leafs should be sellers at the Trade deadline looking to maximize returns on what must clearly be a non-competitive roster. The biggest question in this scenario would have to be whether or not JFJ is still the GM when it comes time to hold the fire sale (and whether MLSE follows the outside the box thinking of the Islanders and hires Tvellquist as the next GM).

If the season plays out as described in scenario 2, JFJ has to decide what the Leafs may need, if anything, to keep up with divisional rivals and to improve the odds of the team going deeper into the post-season. Standing pat here might be the best option.

Scenario 3 is last year’s model and clearly the worst situation for this team to be in. JFJ will be faced with a character defining moment - shore up the team to make a desperate playoff run (likely the only way of keeping his job) or move assets to improve the club’s chances of winning in the future?

The good news is, if the Leafs find themselves on the outside looking in come March, there’s going to be lots of great trade bait on the club as UFAs in-waiting include Sundin (team option); Peca; O’Neill; Tucker; Belak, Antropov and Aubin. RFAs in the last year of their contract include: Ponikarovsky; Suglobov; Colaiacovo; Tellqvist and possibly Stajan (who still hasn’t resigned).

It is amazing to think that, even though training camp is weeks away, decisions next March may define the priorities of this organization and will demonstrate if building a real contender is one of them.

*I guess there is a fourth option – but it’s such a long-shot it really only deserves footnote status: in this situation, the Leafs are the beasts of the east. They must decide what the final puzzle piece may be that will put them over the top and how much they are willing to sacrifice to get it.

Domi, RFAs and JFJ

***UPDATED***

Check your watches, circle the date and make a note in your diary – if reports in the Globe and Toronto Star are to be believed - I’m sending some serious love JFJ’s way today.

Where to begin? RFAs or buy-outs.

OK, buy-outs it is.

The papers are reporting that the Leafs will buy out Tie Domi’s contract by this Friday and that the Leafs will take a $1.25 million dollar cap hit this season in order to say buh-bye to number 28.

Yeah, I can already hear the complaints - he only plays about 8 minutes a game and has been a great fixture on the philanthropy circuit for a decade; he’s best pals with the captain; I’d rather have prospects get real ice time with the Marlies than 8 minutes a game in the NHL; yadda yadda yadda.

Quite simply, the tools Domi brings to the rink are not the ones that are in demand these days. He doesn’t drop the gloves any more and when he does, he chooses to recieve (fast forward to the 30 second mark and try not to shudder); he doesn't stand up for team mates anymore (as the turn and circle after Ondrus got drilled from behind into the boards in Pittsburgh last year amply demonstrates); he doesn’t put the biscuit in the basket (a stretch of 49 games without a goal last season); and he’s taken on a terrible me-first attitude that has no place in hockey, nevermind from a fourth line player. To quote Dr. J, “Being a professional is doing the things you love to do on the days when you don't feel like doing them."

Domi’s two-year, $2.5M contract was a disaster and I don’t care if it was Peddie, Quinn, JFJ or some evil combination of Rumsfield and Cheney that are responsible for it, I’m thrilled to see JFJ step-up to the plate and fix it.

According to the papers, the buyout won’t happen until Friday in case the Leafs are able to deal Domi, but as the buy-out makes Domi an UFA, I can’t see any rational reason why a GM would bite on the current contract, let alone give up a resource in return for Domi, when they’ll be able to negotiate with him free and clear in a week.

With the salary cap officially announced at $44M it’s still a horrible use of resources (nearly 5% of the cap to see the backs of Domi and Belfour) but it had to be done.

On the Restricted Free Agency (RFA) front, the Leafs tendered qualifying offers to 11 players 10 of their 14 RFAs (if anyone has a complete list of the 10 who got offers and the four who didn’t, please post it in the comments section, I’ve only been able to turn up a list of 8 of the 14) and have finally posted the complete list of RFAs tendered qualifying offers.

1. Andrew Raycrof-G. Qualified by Boston - One-way
2. Matt Stajan-C. Qualified One-way
3. Ben Ondrus- Qualified Two-way
4. Brendan Bell-D. Qualified Two-way
5. Carlo Colaiacovo-D. Qualified Two-way
6. Jay Harrison-D. Qualified Two-way
7. Kyle Wellwood-C. Qualified Two-way
8. Nik Antropov-C. Qualified Two-way
9. Jay Harrison - D. Qualified (terms not released)
10. Kris Newbury - LW. Qualified (terms not released)
11. Roman Kukumberg - RW. Qualified (terms not released)

Of note, only Stajan and Raycroft were given one-way contracts.

Antropov has arbitration rights and with the offer of a $95K minor-league salary on the table, I would not be surprised to see him seek an arbitration hearing. That said, given that the oft-injured Kazahk has seen his stats pretty much flat-line at 55 games/ 27 points a season, I don’t like his odds going into arbitration, but I do love the low-ball offer from the Leafs.

I never thought JFJ would step-up like this. It's like the ending of Scared Straight when you're so pleased to see the troubled kids back on the straight and narrow. I'm just hoping the free agent season doesn't cause any sort of pre-CBA recidivism...

Key Dates

There are a number of key dates over the next eight days that should be circled on JFJ's calendar, here's a look:

June 22 – Buy-outs begin. NHL Clubs have eight days to terminate Standard Players Contracts.

Look for Steve Simmons’s on-line headshot to be updated with a spinning-hearts-in-his- eyes photo* as his columns are peppered with pro-Domi references through June 30th.

*In the event of a Domi buy-out, spinning hearts to be replaced with frowning Steve photo.

I presume (and please correct me if I'm wrong) that JFJ will have to notify Belfour whether they're paying out his option or renewing his contract during this 8-day window.

June 24 – NHL Entry draft in Vancouver.

Thanks to the lottery, the Leafs could pick no higher than 9th and no lower than 14th. They "won" the 13th selection. Central Scouting has their player evaluations posted here. Mock drafts can be found here, here, and (sort of) here.

June 26 – Deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers to their Restricted Free Agents (RFAs). Leaf RFAs include: Antropov; Stajan; Wellwood; Colaiacovo; Harrison; White; Bell.

June 27 – Restricted Free Agents may make contact with all NHL clubs to gauge interest, but may not sign a contract or offer sheet until July 1

June 30 – First buyout period ends at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.

Leafs have until Midnight to confirm McCabe contract or he becomes a UFA.

July 1 – UFA/ RFA Signing Period Begins.

In the event that any of the Leafs RFA's are signed by another NHL club, the Leafs will be compensated as follows:

RFA Compensation

Offer	Compensation
Under $660,000	None
Over $660,000 to $1 Million	Third Round Pick
$1 Million to $2 Million	Second Round Pick
$2 Million to $3 Million	First and Third Round Picks
$3 Million to $4 Million	First, Second and Third Round Picks
$4 Million to $5 Million	Two First Round Picks, a Second and a Third Round Pick
Over $5 Million	Four First Round Picks

Anyone else out there who'd happily take a second round pick for Antropov? Anyone?


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