Not Ready for Leafs' Tragic Number

There were a lot of reasons the Leafs weren’t going to make the playoffs this year.

Some might cite their no-show against Tampa or pissed-away points against the likes of the New York Islanders. But the primary reason this Leafs are on the outside looking in is that ugly losing skid back in November (well, that, and sub .900 goaltending they had for much of the season).

The late arrival of goalie James Reimer gave the Leafs and, more importantly, Leaf fans a measure of hope not seen since the first few weeks of the season. Factor in a few Leafs regressing to their norms – Phil Kessel started to find the net, Dion Phaneuf too, even Colby Armstrong got in on the act – and the calls to fire Ron Wilson grow quieter. It's amazing how the return of primary and secondary scoring coupled with competent goaltending will do wonders for a team (and its fan base).

I’m a numbers guy. My wife jokes that I’m a Vulcan. Until I had kids, I wasn’t even sure I had tear ducts, but there are times when numbers and logic take a back seat to hope.

And while I had hope for this club and seriously enjoyed the run, numbers and logic were always lurking in the background (as much as I find the underlying stats illuminating, these particular stats always seemed dark and ominous. The type that would be accompanied by a soundtrack heavy on the timpani, set in a minor key).

Having to compete with four or five other teams for that final playoff spot meant a lot of bubble teams playing each other and picking up points - the prevalence of three point games made it tougher still.

Tragic Numbers

Yes, the Leafs were likely done in November, yet I’m still not ready to start counting down their tragic number.

For me, the best part about the Leafs recent streak wasn’t dreaming about the playoffs or thinking of various droughts coming to an end, it was the simple fact of being able to enjoy watching the team play.

Imagine that.

For far too long, the Leafs simply couldn’t compete and often looked beaten early. There were many nights when the only thing to cheer for was a lone goal to break the other team’s shut-out or hoping that the score would at least remain respectable.

But for the last few weeks it was great to have close games and, on most nights, a team worth cheering for.

The last time I bought a Maple Leafs Jersey John Brophy was behind the bench. I've never even gotten it lettered. Now I find myself looking at sites like SportsMemorabilia.com contemplating buying a new sweater (maybe Kulemin or more likely a Yushkevich throwback).

Yes, there were a lot of reasons the Leafs weren’t going to make the playoffs this year but for the first time in a long time, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic.

It makes for a nice change.

What's the going rate for Kulemin?

Nikolai Kulemin is a Restricted Free Agent (RFA) whose contract is up for renewal. There has been a great deal of speculation as to what it might take, in terms of dollar and term, to get Kulemin back on the Leafs.

Last season, Kulemin carried a cap hit of $1.48M with a salary of $850,000. Under the CBA, he automatically qualifies for a 10% raise, meaning the minimum salary he can earn is $935,000. He will of course, sign for a more substantial raise that reflects his potential and his relative importance to the team.

Now, I have to say that I have no idea what Nikolai Kulemin is worth. I mean, I’m writing this while drinking beer on a Monday afternoon – so consider the source - but I thought I’d take a stab at a few of the variables involved in his upcoming contract negotiations.

1. What contracts (cap hit and term) have other RFAs with similar stats to Kulemin signed; and
2. What are his arbitration rights? Can Kulemin (or the Leafs) go to a third party to set Kulemin’s salary?

Comparables

In order to get an idea of the compensation Kulemin might be in line for, I wanted to find players that have put up similar numbers.

I limited the field to players that were RFAs at the end of the 2008-09 season. By looking at players that put up totals that are in the same range as Kulemin, we can look at the resulting contracts that they signed to get a sense of the going rate for 30 to 40 point RFA.

In terms of production, Kulemin’s two years in the NHL have been pretty similar:

73GP 15G 16A 31Pts
78GP 16G 20A 36Pts

There aren’t many comparable RFAs from the 2008-09 season, but here are five RFA forwards with numbers that are somewhat similar to Kulemin’s most recent year. Here are their boxcars and the deals they signed back in 2009:

Brandon Dubinksy 82GP 13G 28A 41PTS 2 years, $1.85M/year
Ryan Callahan 81GP 22G 18A 40PTS 2 years, $2.3M/year
Chad LaRose 81GP 19G 12A 31PTS 2 years, $1.7M/year
Kyle Brodziak 79GP 11G 16A 27PTS 3 years, $1.15M/year
Kyle Wellwood 74GP 18G 9A 27PTS 1 year, $1.2M/year

Based on these numbers, I would think Kulemin is looking at a payday of $1.75M to $2.3 million per year. I’d guess – and this is nothing more than idle speculation – Kulemin inks a two to three year deal with a $2.1M annual cap hit.

That guess, and these numbers, don't take into consideration arbitration...

Arbitration Rights

By my reading of the CBA, Kulemin is eligible for arbitration. But of course, nothing with the CBA is that straightforward.

Arbitration eligibility is based on the age that a player signs his first SPC and his years of professional service. Kulemin signed his entry level deal in May 2007, when he was 20, but by the terms of the CBA he’s considered 21 years old:

As used in this Article, "age," including "First SPC Signing Age," means a Player's age on September 15 of the calendar year in which he first signs an SPC regardless of his actual age on the date he signs such SPC.

According to 12.1 (a) of the CBA, players who sign their SPC at 21 must have three (3) years of professional service to be arbitration eligible.

Kulemin has two seasons with the Leafs and one year with the KHL’s Metallurg Magnitogorsk (a team name that I want to load up with umlauts and claim is an ‘80s metal band). I have no idea if that season in the KHL counts as a year of “professional service” as there’s no definition of “professional service” in the CBA. Helpful, huh?

The CBA does define a “professional games” as:

any NHL Games played, all minor league regular season and playoff games and any other professional games played, including but not limited to, games played in any European league or any other league outside North America, by a Player pursuant to his SPC.

So if Kulemin’s time in the KHL counts as profeesional games, I’m going to presume that a year of professional games is a year of professional service. That means Kulemin has played three professional seasons, which means he's eligible to take the Leafs to arbitration. That means the Leafs don't hold all of the leverage in these negotiations and, in addition to the so-called threat of bolting to the KHL, Kulemin and his agent can also seek higher compensation by taking their case to a third party.

We should know by the first week of July where exactly Kulemin and the Leafs stand...