Setting the Course in September: Paying the Price in March

So I took a shot at Michael Grange's trade deadline entry earlier today.

Here’s the trade deadline story as I would have filed it.

You don’t need to look at the playoff races and the prices set in this sellers’ market to know that the Leafs' fate wasn't sealed at the trade deadline. It was sealed in September, when Burke & Co. rolled the dice on the goaltending tandem of Reimer and Gustavsson.

Burke, who claimed to be building this team from the nets out, elected to go with the high-risk high-reward combo of Reimer and Gustavsson in nets.

As the 2011-12 season was set to unfold, James Reimer, ostensibly the Leafs’ starting goalie, had just 37 games of NHL experience.

Gustavsson, his back-up, had all of 65 NHL games under his belt and was coming off a season with a disastrous .890 save percentage. To put that in perspective, Gustavsson’s save percentage was 47th among NHL goalies with 20 or more games played. Only Rick Dipietro and Ty Conklin put up worse numbers last year.

This is what the team decided to roll the dice on. Their contingency plan? Nada. Zip. Zilch. Zero.

There would be no offer to Theodore, apparently no offer for Vokoun. Giguere would not be extended, Anderson was left for the Sens, and Emery signed on with Chicago. (Thankfully we took a pass on Turco).

Now, it could be argued that this was the perfect season for the Leafs to find out if either of their goalies had the right stuff. The Leafs were a bubble team, but if Reimer or Gustavsson found their groove, the club had enough up-front talent to cross the 92+ point threshold and make the playoffs for the first time since the lockout.

But if Gustavsson and Reimer don’t have the right stuff?

Well, let’s welcome your 2011-12 Toronto Maple Leafs!

A team in 10th place at the trade deadline, treading water, and feeling increasingly under pressure from all sides. A team that’s 28th in goals against and put up a collective .904 save percentage, well below the league average.

In short, the issue with this team is not the trade deadline, "it's the goaltending, stupid."

The lack of even NHL-average goaltending has plagued the Leafs since 2006 and it is also Burke's largest career shortcoming/ blindspot.

Goaltending was his undoing in Vancouver, he dropped the ball on Bryzgalov in Anaheim, and he’s been a complete failure with goalies in Toronto.

Nothing will change until it's addressed.

Coaching

I don’t think Ron Wilson is the primary problem in Toronto, I do think his approach to the game have exacerbated the problems with this team.

If the Leafs were to get a competent goalie (a big if, I know) I do wonder if their approach to the game would ultimately be successful? I can’t recall the last run and gun hockey team that went deep into the playoffs.

The club lacks a true defensive defenceman and hasn’t had someone who can eat tough minutes since they enjoyed 136 games of Francois Beauchemin.

Raw goalies who have struggled, no shut-down D and a run and gun style does not strike me, admittedly a coaching layman, as a recipe for success.

I found this to be a very telling item Eliotte Friedman’s recent 30 thoughts:

Toronto and Philadelphia sniffed around Wild goaltender Josh Harding. Don't think either team got overly serious and one GM thought Harding was a poor match for the run-and-gun Maple Leafs. "He needs structure to be successful," the GM said.

Structure. Defence. Novel things in Toronto. Something the next coach should bring to the table.

I look at what Dave Tippet has done in Phoenix and I look at what the Leafs have become in Toronto and I can only conclude there’s an issue with the systems and coaching.

Development curves

Stepping back from the obvious failures in goal and the questionable decisions behind the bench, the single biggest long-term issue facing the Leafs is the composition of their forward and defensive corps.

There has been substantial work on peak performance and ageing and, no surprise, forwards peak earlier than defencemen. For NHL forwards, the average age for peak point per game production is 25.

As the Leafs are currently composed, their top six forwards are at or nearing their peak, with an average age of 26.

1. Phil Kessel, 24
2. Tyler Bozak, 25
3. Joffrey Lupul, 28
4. Mikhail Grabovski, 28
5. Nikolai Kulemin, 25
6. Clarke MacArthur, 26

NHL defencemen have a longer development curve and don’t hit their peak until closer to 28. As the Leafs D is currently composed, their top 4 guys have an average age of 23.5

1. Dion Phaneuf, 26
2. Carl Gunnarsson, 25
3. Jake Gardiner, 21
4. Luke Schenn, 22

What does this all mean?

It means the Leafs forwards are currently hitting their peak, while the Leafs D is four and half years away from their peak.

This is clearly not an ideal way to construct a hockey team and probably one more reason why the Leafs are 6th in goals for and 28th in goals against.

Priorities

As a Leafs fan, I’d like to see the team address three key issues in the off-season:

Ron Wilson's Record

I'm not much of a Ron Wilson fan. He may not be the biggest reason that the Leafs are looking at another year without the playoffs, but I haven't seen anything from him to suggest he's got what it takes to finally get the Leafs over the 90 point barrier, never mind into the playoffs.

In short, he may not be the problem but I don't think he's the solution either.

If the Leafs don't make the playoffs this year - and a quick glance at their schedule suggests that's exactly what will happen - and if Ron Wilson isn't fired, he will join some pretty select company.

Ron Wilson will be one of just four NHL coaches in the history of the NHL who have kept their job after four consecutive seasons without a playoffs appearance. Wilson will see his name, um - immortalized?, alongside Barry Trotz, Wayne Gretzky and Frank Boucher. I hope not, but all signs point to at least one more year of a bad PK, strange personnel decisions, and Wilson's patented arms folded, closed mouth time outs.

Team	Seasons	Coach
Nashville Predators	1998-03	Barry Trotz
New York Rangers	1942-47	Frank Boucher
Toronto Maple Leafs	2008-2012	Ron Wilson
Phoenix Coyotes	2005-09	Wayne Gretzky

Wilson being in such select company (just shoot me) inspired me to look at how the Leafs' awful post-season drought compares with other NHL teams. I also thought it would be interesting to see how many franchises have never gone four years without a post-season appearance, never mind four years of no playoffs without firing their coach.

NHL Teams' Longest Post-Season Drought

Team	Seasons	Streak
Florida Panthers**	2000-2011	10 seasons
New Jersey Devils	1978-87	9 seasons
Boston Bruins	1959-67	8 seasons
Washington Capitals*	1974-82	8 seasons
New York Rangers	1997-2004	7 seasons
New York Islanders	1994-2001	7 seasons
Columbus Blue Jackets*	2000-2008	7 seasons
Detroit Red Wings	1970-77	7 seasons
Calgary Flames	1996-2003	7 seasons
Pittsburgh Penguins	1982-88	6 seasons
Carolina Hurricanes	1992-98	6 seasons
Tampa Bay	1996-2002	6 seasons
Winnipeg/Atlanta*	1999-2006	6 seasons
Chicago Black Hawks	1946-52	6 seasons
Edmonton Oilers**	2005-11	6 seasons 5 seasons
Los Angeles Kings	2002-09	6 seasons
Phoenix/ Winnipeg	2002-09	6 seasons
Philadelphia Flyers	1989-94	5 seasons
Toronto Maple Leafs**	2005-11	5 seasons6 seasons
Nashville Predators*	1998-2003	5 seasons
Colorado/ Quebec	1987-92	5 seasons
Ottawa Senators*	1992-96	4 seasons
Vancouver Canucks	1970-74*/1996-00	4 seasons
Buffalo Sabres	2001-04	3 seasons
Montreal Canadiens	1919-22/ 1998-01	3 seasons
St. Louis Blues	2005-08	3 seasons
Minnesota Wild**	2008-11	3 seasons
Anaheim Ducks	1993-96*/ 1999-02	3 seasons
Dallas/ Minnesota	1973-76/2008-11**	3 seasons
San Jose Sharks	1991-93*/ 1995-97	2 seasons

*expansion team, streak began with first season in the league

**current streak, if they miss the playoffs this season, add 1 more to their total

Smoke 'em if you got 'em

As a kid, three things terrified me more than any other: quicksand, Bigfoot from the Six Million Dollar Man, and bottomless pits.

When Catwoman fell into that bottomless pit on the old Batman shows I was horrified. First off, what a waste of Julie Newmar (seriously) and secondly – a bottomless pit? Really? Falling forever, right through the planet? That is some worrisome stuff to a nine year old (although my kids sure do love to sing along to John Prine's Bottomless Lake).

Thirty years later, none of these fears seem all that legit anymore. You don’t hear much about quicksand, a seemingly ubiquitous plot device in the TV shows and movies of the 1970s and 1980s. The big foot clips on youtube still give me the heebie-jeebies (what is up with those eyes?!?) but I’m no longer worried about what to do when a sasquatch attacks.

As for the bottomless pit, lately that’s what it is to be a Leafs fan - every time you think the bottom has been found, the franchise proves us wrong...

What are the Odds?

I never though this year’s squad would amount to much, likely a tweener team – not good enough for the playoffs and not bad enough for the draft lottery.

Many of the so-called pros saw it the same way: Vegas had the Leafs Stanley Cup odds at 60 to 1 (which seems generous to me); online sports betting sites don’t think much of the Leafs either; and Sports Club Stats has the Leafs odds of making the post season down to a slim 6.2%

That's what makes the next step such a tough one. If this team is under-performing, it's not under-performing by much.

Coach Wilson

Even with the teams' abysmal performance, I have no idea if coach Ron Wilson should be fired.

The holes on the Leafs roster have been evident for some time and it was clear Burke's off-season spackle job wouldn’t be get this team out of the bottom third of the league.

I’m not sure any coach could win with this pop-gun offence. I’ve seen puddles that have more meaningful depth.

The only coach Brian Burke ever fired was Mike Keenan and, if you go back and read the press clippings, Burke apparently did it for two reasons:

1. The Canucks were on a horrific losing skid;
2. Burke was worried another team would fire their coach and hire Marc Crawford, the guy Burke wanted.

There is no doubt the Leafs are all over criterion number one. With only four wins in their last 20 and six shutout losses in their last 16, this is an ugly skid.

As for criterion number two, I have no idea who the best available coaches are, but you’d have to think the Leafs brain trust has gone over that question on a daily basis and have a list of candidates whittled down and ready to go.

I think that's the only reason Burke might fire Ron Wilson: if he thinks another organization is going to scoop up his top choice as coach, otherwise I wouldn't bet on Wilson going anywhere this season.

The Month Ahead: A New Low?

The NHL roster freeze is December 19^th, but Brian Burke freezes his roster on December 9^th. No word on whether that freeze includes changes affecting coaches. Knowing Burke's so-called code, I have a feeling it does.

Looking ahead at the Leafs schedule, they play five top teams in the next 10 days. I’ll be shocked if they come out of that stretch with 2 wins; sadly, I’ll be surprised if they come out of it with more than 2 goals.

If you’re a gambler, you can make the safe bet and take the under against the Leafs at proline. If you're looking for something more entertaining than another shutout loss, there's always Julie Newmar as Catwoman and those haunting Six Milion Dollar Man vs. Sasquatch videos...

There's no imagination in the blues

Most people pegged the Leafs to be 12th in the East and they're certainly playing down to expectations.

That said, the two biggest and most common question before the Leafs' season started - is Bozak ready to be a #1C and who is going to score for this team - have turned out to have rather ugly answers so far (No; nobody).

It's hard to believe that the Leafs scored more goals (16) in their first four games than they have in their last ten (15). The team is now on pace to score fewer goals this season than any team since the lockout.

One win in their last nine, shut-out three times in their past six. The trend lines are all pointing in the wrong direction.

The worst part is, lots of people saw this coming.

Looking at this mess of a club, to my mind the latest horrific slide appears to come down to:

1. The team has tuned out the Coach. The penalty kill is bad and the power play is a whole new level of atrocious. Too frequently the team comes out flat and isn't coming up with an adequate compete level; and/or
2. Burke has consistently mis-judged the state of the club and applied the wrong "fix." (When the team had three wins in their first 18 games using the NHL's most expensive group of defencemen, acquiring another "stud" d-,an didn't strike me as the club's biggest priority. This off-season, with goals at an absolute premium, committing $3.5M to 15 goal man Colby Armstrong seemed like a horrible use of resources).

Now, if the problem is the former, it's rather easy to address. Put a bullet in Wilson and his crew and move on.

If it's the latter (and the voices in my head are telling me it might be) I'm not ready to go there quite yet...


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Brian Burke's Coaches

I'm not smart enough to know if Ron Wilson is the "problem" in Leaf land. Actually, I'm not sure that there is a so-called problem.

One look at the Leafs' roster and it's pretty clear that goals are going to be tough to come by this year. This is a roster whose first-line centre went un-drafted and has all of 50 NHL games experience.

With so little offensive punch there's no margin for error on the back-end. The lack of firepower makes every mistake in the Leafs' own zone terminal. The Leafs are going to have to win a lot of games 2-1 or 1-0 if they're going to have a shot at the post-season.

Despite the state of the line-up, with just one win in their last 9 games and three years of piss-poor special teams play, the call for Wilson to be fired is growing louder by the day.

I thought a quick look at Brian Burke's coaching decisions in his previous gigs as a NHL GM might shed some light on what, if anything, might happen behind the bench with the 2010-11 Maple Leafs.

Hartford Whalers, 1992-93

This was Brian Burke's first gig as a GM.

Hired May 26, 1992, within three weeks Burke announced a coaching change - interim coach Jimmy Roberts was replaced by Paul Holmgren.

Holmgren had previous NHL head coaching experience, he was the bench boss for the Flyers from 1988-to 1991.

Burke was fired in 1993, Holmgren remained the coach of the Whale until 1996.

Vancouver Canucks, 1998-04

Mike Keenan was the first coach Brian Burke fired.

In January 1999, after a month of hockey that saw the Canucks win 2 of 13 games - a tailspin Burke called, "an unmitigated disaster" - Mike Kennan was shown the door. Burke brought in Marc Crawford as his head coach, signing him to a three-year deal.

Crawford had previously coached the Colorado Avalanche to a Stanley Cup in 1996 and resigned from the Avalanche in 1998.

Burke made no further coaching changes during his tenure in Vancouver.

Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks, 2005 - 2008

Brian Burke was named GM of the Mighty Ducks in June, 2005. Burke offered a one-year extension to head coach Mike Babcock. Babcock declined and signed a multi-year deal just a few weeks later with the Detroit Red Wings.

Burke hired former Leafs defenceman Randy Carlyle to coach the Ducks. Carlyle had been head head coach the Canucks' AHL affiliate.

Of the hire, Burke said: "I wanted to find a coach that matches my intensity level. I hate to lose, I know Randy hates to lose as much as I do."

Carlyle is still the coach of the Ducks.

Coaches Cornered

In three previous stints as GM, covering 10+ seasons of hockey, Burke fired just one coach and hired three. Two of the three hires had previous NHL experience, the third was well known to Burke as the coach of his former AHL affiliate.

I'm doubtful Wilson gets the gate this year. That said, the one thing that's struck me most about Burke's tenure with the Leafs is how often his big moves come as complete shocks - there's no leaks to the press and nobody sees it coming. I don't know what Ron Wilson's fate may be, but I'm willing to wager it will be in keeping with Burke's M.O. and will come as a surprise to many.

Find all the best pubs for watching Leaf games at YellowPages.ca

Competition in Camp and other white lies

The Leafs have invited 60+ players to this year's training camp. That's about 40 more players than they have room for.

Of the seven d-spots on the roster, at least five are already locked down:
1. Phaneuf
2. Komisarek
3. Beauchmin
4. Kaberle
5. Schenn

That leaves three bubble guys(Gunnarsson, Lebda and Finger) in the hunt to be the sixth d-man and 7thD/press-box boy. The other 14 candidates will head to the Marlies, the Leafs ECHL affiliate in Reading or their junior teams.

Up front the Leafs usually carry 13 forwards.

One look at the roster and it's clear that two thirds of those spots are filled:
1. Armstrong
2. Bozak
3. Brown
4. Grabovski
5. Kessel
6. Kulemin
7. Orr
8. Sjostrom(injured)
9. Versteeg

That means 29 forwards are "competing" for just four spots. You have to think MacArthur, Mitchell, Caputi, Hanson and Kadri are the inside favourites here - and the other 25 guys are pretty much pre-season tourists.

Six goalies are in camp, but the Leafs are set with JS Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson...

Look, I get that a lot of these kids are in camp for reasons that have little to do with the 2010-11 Toronto Maple Leafs. For some, it's about rewarding a strong rookie camp; for others it's the cliched "giving them a taste of what it takes to be in the pros." For the goalies, it's a chance to work alongside Francois Allaire. I also expect that cuts will come fast and furious, whittling down the camp to more manageable numbers.

I'm also all for a so-called environment of competition, but one look at the numbers and it's clear that any competition in camp is amongst guys who'll be playing maybe six to eight minutes a night (or sitting in the press box for long stretches).

When Ron Wilson complains about lack of practice time and the team's inability to work on systems during the pre-season I hope a reporter (or a blogger willing to post his $10,000 bond) asks why the team invited 60+ guys to a camp that has six jobs available.




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Brian Burke Can't Even Manage Expectations

Brian Burke says a lot of things.

He’d pull the trigger on Kessel again.

Ron Wilson’s job is safe.

“Our goal is to make the playoffs; that's our intention. We think this team is good enough.”

I don’t know if I believe a word of it.

There are four simple words that Burke might want to take under consideration moving forward: under promise, over deliver.

Not only are those four words a pretty good maxim, they may also the one thing the Cliff Fletcher did right in his second go ‘round with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I had all the patience in the world for the Leafs to bottom out, shed the JFJ remnants and bad contracts, get younger, get deeper, and hopefully get better.

But if the new GM doesn’t have the patience for a re-build – and sacrificing two firsts a second and a third is proof positive of that - why should fans?

I haven’t been writing much about this team because there’s not much to write about. Going into the season, it was clear that the PK and goaltending needed to be addressed in order for this team to have any sort of chance, never mind success. Neither of these shortcomings were dealt with and the team continues to play some ugly hockey.

How ugly? Even if the team manages to go .500 the rest of the way (a tall order) the Leafs will finish with their lowest point total since the lock-out and their worst season in over 10 years.

To put that in perspective, Wilson and Burke are on target to ice a team that finished 9 points back of the worst team ever assembled by JFJ.

"We believe we're good enough this year to make the playoffs."

Sorry Mr. Burke, you're not even close.

The Johnny Mitchell Effect

The best thing to happen to the Toronto Maple Leafs this season might just be a knee injury to John Mitchell.

Since Mitchell was placed on Long Term Injury Reserve the Leafs are 8-3.

Let me be clear: I know the winning streak has a lot to do with stable goaltending, a relatively soft schedule, and better compliance with Coach Wilson’s forechecking system.

That said, taking Mitchell out of the picture made three important things happen:

1. It brought an end to all the useless talk about who should centre Kessel;
2. It gave Stajan an extended opportunity to establish himself as the defacto #1Centre and, more importantly, it meant Mitchell (a fine #3 or #4 Centre) didn’t have to struggle or play in situations way-over his head; and
3. By solidifying the situation up the middle, all four Leaf lines have found some chemistry, provided secondary scoring and balanced play.

It will be interesting to see how Coach Wilson fits Mitchell back into the line-up once he gets the clearance to play.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Leafs assign Mitchell to the Marlies on a conditioning stint that’s just long enough to get this team to the trade deadline. Doing so would give Burke the opportunity to make addditional moves that don't expose Leaf players to waivers and a chance to move an extra body or two for a late round pick.

On the Leeds side-streets that you slip down

Before Leaf fans start to panic, one has to wonder what the best case scenario was for this young season. Looking at the strength of competion, I'd say the best this team could have hoped for was to be 2-2-0 in their first four.

The Leafs played well and deserved to win game one against Montreal. It took two bizarre calls and some bad officiating to lose the game against the Sens. Losses to Pittsburgh and Washington shouldn’t surprise anyone.

Now, don’t get me wrong, the Leafs have looked absolutely atrocious in three of their four starts this year.

The team didn’t show up for the Sens, got outclassed by Washington and in the last game against Pittsburgh the Leafs had more turnovers than a Pillsbury factory. (Crosby scored two PP goals from the exact same spot on the ice. He was untouched and unguarded on both plays. Maybe it’s just me, but somebody might want to keep an eye on the #87 out there or maybe Wilson’s coaching cheat sheet mis-spelled Crosby’s name and the leafs weren't sure who to cover.)

I don't know if it's physical, mental or both but Vesa Toskala looks about as comfortable as a woman in burqa a at a Klan rally.

Keeping the Story Straight

Does anyone think management set expectations at a level that’s remotely in line with the talent (or lack thereof) on this club?

The organization said playoffs was their goal and then iced a team with Matt Stajan as the #1 centre and Vesa Toskala as the starting goalie - even though he hasn’t been able to approach the league average save percentage in three years.

Burke also promised an entertaining team. Other than game one against the Habs, I haven’t seen any entertaining hockey - have you?

Remember the old competition in camp theory? You know, the one where guys were going to earn their jobs. Well it turns out the Leafs couldn't get the msessage straight on that front either and some guys earned their starts this year based on last season's play. That would be the same season the team put up 81 points and missed the playoffs for the third year in a row.

A few days ago, Ron Wilson compared public criticism of Vesa Toskala to waterboarding. Your read that right, the Toronto media were metaphorically torturing the goalie.

Tonight the coach decided to throw that same goalie under the bus.

The only consistent thing coming from the Leafs is the stench of incompetence.

Shortcomings and Off-Season Moves

The two biggest issues that dogged the Leafs last year were the penalty kill and goaltending. The Leafs were dead last in both categories.

In the off-season, Burke shuffled the defence - moving out Kubina and bringing in Komisarek, Exelby and Beachemin. He also added Rickard Wallin to the forward mix (as well as pugilist Colton Orr)

In nets, Burke actively pursued the Jonas “The Monster” Gustavsson, who unfortunately is battling injuries and has only started a single game.

Four games into the Season and the Leafs are, once again, dead last in goals against and dead last on the PK.

Until goaltending and special teams play is resolved, this team will remain winless.

Oh, and a question the media horde might want to ask Coach Wilson: what the heck is Wallin doing on the PP?

Leafs Camp Cuts: And then there were 33?

The Globe and the Sun are reporting that the Leafs have made another round of cuts at training camp, paring the roster down to 34 33 players.

Forwards
1. Allison, Jason
2. Blake, Jason
Boyce, Darryl
3. Bozak, Tyler
4. Brent, Tim
Champagne, Joel
Devane, Jamie
Deveaux, Andre
Foster, Alex
Giliati, Stefano
5. Grabovski, Mikhail
Greenop, Richard
6. Hagman, Niklas
Hamilton, Ryan
7. Hanson, Christian
8. Kadri, Nazem
9. Kulemin, Nikolai
10. Kurtz, John
11. Mayers, Jamal
Mitchell, Dale
12. Mitchell, John
Ondrus, Ben
13. Orr, Colton
14. Ponikarovsky, Alexei
15. Primeau, Wayne
Rogers, Kyle
Rosehill, Jay
Scott, Greg
Slaney, Robert
16. Stalberg, Viktor
17. Stajan, Matt
Stefanovich, Mikhail
18. Stempniak, Lee
19. Tlusty, Jiri
20. Wallin, Rickard

Defence
21. Beauchemin, Francois
Blacker, Jesse
Engel, Josh
22. Exelby, Garnet
23. Finger, Jeff
24. Frogren, Jonas
25. Gunnarsson, Carl
26. Kaberle, Tomas
27. Komisarek, Mike
Manning, Brandon
Mikus, Juraj
Oreskovic, Phil
Perry, Todd
Rogers, Andy
Ryan, Joe
28. Schenn, Luke
Smith, Barron
Uotila, Juha
29. Van Ryn, Mike
30. White, Ian

Goaltenders
Engelage, Andrew
Erickson, Beau
31. Gustavsson, Jonas
32. MacDonald, Joey
Reimer, James
33. Toskala, Vesa

The only player that seems quite out of place on this roster is John Kurtz, an over-ager from the OHL's Sudbury Wolves (who's apparently injured). Mike Van Ryn is also on the IR (I know, I know - I'm shocked too).

The CBA dictates that teams have to be down to a 23 man active roster the day before the first game of the season, which means the Leafs have until September 30th to make their final cuts.

Coach Wilson has said he plans on carrying 13 forwards, eight Defence and two goalies. If that is the case, the team will need to cut seven guys up front (Kurtz and Brent are no-brainers, Kadri is heading back to junior, which means four more guys have to go); 2 more D-men (or Van Ryn stays on the IR and Gunnarsson goes back to the Marlies) and 1 goalie (safe money is on Joey Mac).

In a horror movie when the car won't start you give it one last try

As expected, this has been a pretty dismal season for the Leafs and, given the paucity of talent on this club and the preponderance of injuries, it's been difficult to get a handle on the impact of Ron Wilson in his first year with the team.

Take the Leafs special teams (please).

With such little talent up front it's surprising that their PP is 12th overall. That's a pretty respectable showing when you consider they're running Kubina, Stempniak, Blake, Stajan, and Poni as PP1.

On the PK the Leafs have been dreadful. Earlier this season they were flirting with the lowest PK rate in the NHL in nearly 20 years. I suspect the poor showing on the PK had more to do with Toskala than it did with coaching, players or systems. Gerber has played all of eight games for the Leafs and in that time the club has been killing penalties at an 80.7% clip. It's a very small sample to be sure, but it's still a vast improvement over their 30th place showing at 75%. In fact, if they could maintain their new kill rate with Gerber between the pipes it would put them in 18th in the NHL.

One other, albeit random, improvement from the Leafs this year: the dreaded shootout. If the Leafs win their next shoot-out they'll be .500 in the gimmicky extra point contest under Coach Wilson (7-7). I don't think the Leafs have ever been .500 in the shootout since it's inception, unless you count the days when the club is 0-0.

* * *

It will be interesting to see what supplementary discipline, if any, the NHL takes against Martin Gerber for his outburst late in the Caps game. The NHL has a tendency to approach supplementary discipline with as much order and precision as Jackson Pollack going at a blank canvas. Gerber bumped an official and fired a puck in their direction after a questionable goal by Laich. Under rule 41, that's an automatic game misconduct:

41.1 Game Misconduct – Any player or goalkeeper who deliberately applies physical force in any manner against an official, in any manner attempts to injure an official, physically demeans, or deliberately applies physical force to an official solely for the purpose of getting free of such an official during or immediately following an altercation shall receive a game misconduct penalty.

What remains to be seen is that firing of the puck moves Gerber into automatic suspension territory as per rule 41.3

41.3 Automatic Suspension – Category III – Any player or goalkeeper who, by his actions, physically demeans an official or physically threatens an official by (but not limited to) throwing a stick or any other piece of equipment or object at or in the general direction of an official, shooting the puck at or in the general direction of an official, spitting at or in the general direction of an official, or who deliberately applies physical force to an official solely for the purpose of getting free of such an official during or immediately following an altercation shall be suspended for not less than three (3) games.

At this point in the year, there are certainly worse options than seeing Cujo get the start for two or three games. Maybe one of Reese, Healy or Potvin can come out of retirement serve as his back-up.

There's a Place for us

So Cujo is making noise about not retiring. Great. Mike Zeisberger ran with it yesterday at the Sun and Dave Perkins picked up the lukewarm leftovers today at the Star.

As far as the Leafs go, this really is a non-story. One needs to look no further than Coach Wilson to realize that Cujo isn't in the Leafs plans:

"He can still be a backup somewhere [emphasis mine]," coach Ron Wilson said. "He was not what we expected but he's been good the past three or four games."

You'd think that quote would take the air out of the Cujo returns storyline (Somewhere?!?, Do you think Wilson meant the AHL or the stick hockey games in Cujo's basement?) but apparently not...

I realize there's space in the paper and call in shows to be filled and nature and sports media abhor a vacuum, but it's non-stories like this that make me abhor the vacuous.

Two Minutes (to midnight)

I was prepping a post on PK performance that's taking a bit longer than I expected (some stuff that should be easy to dig out sure is buried at NHL.com) when I stumbled across this, largely meaningless, factoid: the Ron Wilson coached Maple Leafs are currently the fourth least penalized team in the NHL. You read that right, they are 27th in times shorthanded. Here's the trend line:

2008-09 - 27th most penalized
2007-08 - 17th
2006-07 - 11th
2005-06 - 12th
Lockout
2003-04 - 5th
2002-03 - 1st (woo hoo, Leafs are #1!)

For the first time in a long time this club is actually showing some signs of discipline.

Clearly this isn't what Fletcher had in mind when he traded for Hollwegg, but all things considered it's probably for the best as the PK is dead last and Toskala's sv% when the Buds are a man (or two) down is a chilling .852

Now, this post isn't suggesting I don't want a tough club and I know there's no correlation between times shorthanded and regular season or post-season success. And yes, everyone knows full well Anaheim won the cup as the most penalized team in the league. I just found it interesting that in all the discussion of what Ron Wilson may or may not have accomplished in his first year as coach of the Leafs, this trend hasn't been noted.

===
A month or so ago I was contemplating throwing out some Iron Maiden for the title of a post. I ended up going with the Smiths instead and I heard about it in the comments. Because I care so much about my readers (all three of you - hi mum!) I went back to the days of Powerslave for this one (grade 9 if memory serves). It's a track I still have on my iPod right between Radiohead's "2+2=5(The Lukewarm)" and "21 Park Rd." by Bill King (sorry, Canadian Jazz and youtube don't seem to mix).

September Gurls

The Leafs sure turned in a stinker last night against Nashville. Just 17 shots on net and only 4 in the third. Talk about teeing it up for a "playoffs in New Jersey" punchline.

Don't ask me why, but after the game I actually listened to Andy Frost's call-in show (remind me never to do that again, will you?)

I was a little surprised at how upset the callers were. One guy claimed it was the worst Leafs performance in 50 years (he clearly missed most of the 1980s, the time the Leafs lost to the Pens 12-1 on Boxing Day in '91, the time that the Flames smoked the Leafs 12-2, Mike Murphy's entire tenure, the night the Leafs didn't hit double digits in shots for a game seven at the Meadowlands, the back-to-back must wins versus Montreal in 2005, the St. Louis Blues scoring 117 goals in four minutes in November 2000 to complete an improbably comeback against my beloved Leafs late in the third...)

I joked over at PPP that maybe the fans who were so upset by last night's performance hadn't watched the Leafs for the past 200 games or maybe they just missed the barrage of pre-season prognostication that concluded the Leafs would have a tough time beating a mite team this season.

For those of you who are frustrated by this year's results, let's take a quick look back to see if the Leafs are living up to (down to?) expectations.

James Mirtle:

There's pretty much zero expectations on this team, and that's probably a good thing...It looks like a tank job, even with Ron Wilson at the helm, and I fully expect to see anything resembling a veteran tossed overboard come the trade deadline. It could get ugly — although that's probably not a bad idea.

Greg Wyshynski:

And this is, to put it bluntly, an expansion-level collection of maybes and have-nots that are wearing the uniform of an Original Six team in one of the league's major media markets...If this moribund collection gets even a sniff of the postseason, then Ron Wilson's coaching genius is confirmed. Because on paper, the offensive attack for Toronto reads like a fantasy team entirely constructed from what's left on the waiver wire.

TSN - unlike the past few seasons, there's no illusion of grandeur this time from the team and its fans. After years of trying to squeak into the playoffs with quick fixes, the Leafs appear ready to start over from square one.

Sportsnet - Even a crash-test dummy would fear what lies ahead for the Leafs.

MSNBC - Maple Leafs likely to make bid for worse record: Another terrible finish for Toronto is in order. 67 points (5th in Northeast, 15th in East)

AOL NHL Fanhouse - Leafs last in the Northeast

Coach Ron Wilson - "I said from the beginning we weren’t going to win the Stanley Cup this year and we were extremely doubtful to make the playoffs or even compete in the last 20 games for a playoff spot."

Hockeybeat - Leafs 13th in the East

The Hockey News - Leafs 14th in the East

ESPN - Toronto Maple Leafs, Grade: C- last in the Northeast

The Muppet - The bad news is that Toronto is no lock for finishing last overall and getting our pick of the crop. We have some grim challengers. The Islanders, for one; Atlanta; Los Angeles; St Louis (although I don’t think they’ll be as bad as advertised). Plus, one or maybe two other teams who will surprise us and really, really suck. If the Leafs can’t wrangle dead last from the cold grip of the aforementioned we can still do very well drafting 2nd through 5th.

Newsman 1290 (I have no idea who this guy is, he looks like he actually blogs in his mum's basement and his headshot was taken by the guy who got the famous blurred photo of bigfoot. He still thinks Sundin plays for the Leafs and he can't spell "rebuild" yet he still calls it right): Toronto Maple Leafs: 78 Points, 5th in the Northeast, 12th in the Eastern Conference. The reason that the Toronto Maple Leafs will finish last in this division is because they are going through a rebulding process.

Me (MF37) - Where will the Leafs finish this season? Safe bet is last. The Leafs’ wins so far were built on 90 percent hustle, 5 percent skill and 5 percent luck. That’s a pretty hard formula to carry through the dog days of February.

And as much as it pains me, even Working Class Howard called it:

The Leafs will place 30th among 30 teams and the only question to be answered is whether they will break the post-lockout record for fewest points in a season. The Philadelphia Flyers hold that distinction with a 56-point showing in 2006-07...Multiplying the Leafs’ preseason effort over 82 games results in a record of 18-45-19 for 55 points. That is a colossal 16 points less than the worst team in the NHL last season. Tampa Bay brought up the rear with 71 points and won the draft lottery. Could the 2008-09 Maple Leaf bottom out to that degree? Absolutely.

I'd love to see more passion from the Leafs too. More guts. More pride. But I've also seen this franchise go a decade without hitting .500. I've seen some ugly times as a Leaf fan and at least, for once, it seems like there might just be a bit of a plan or at the very least some semblance of a strategy in the executive corridors of the ACC.

The trade deadline is now just under seven weeks away and it's going to get much worse before it gets any better. Sadly, watching lottery balls before the draft day may well be the highlight of this Leafs season.

At least if this team loses the lottery, it won't be do to lack of effort.

Come back, my little piece of mind

Tomas Kaberle was benched during the first period against the Coyotes last night.

Kaberle's post-game reaction can be watched here - 7th video clip on the right.

You'll notice some Clinton-esque frown lines on the young Czech and a pretty interesting nervous tic at the 1:25 mark when he's asked about going minus four, like he's doing his best David Brent impression.

Ron Wilson's remarks on the matter can be watched here - 6th video clip on the right.

Kaberle questioning starts about 25 seconds in and Berger provides further ammo for Wilson's contention that the media ask dumb questions at the 1:42 mark.

###

The biggest, and perhaps most important, challenge facing the Leafs this season is getting Kaberle back on track.

With his age and reasonable salary, Kaberle could be an essential part of the rebuild in Toronto, but only if he can find his old game.

Conversely, if he's going to be traded for much-needed young talent, the Leafs need to ensure they maximize their return. And that's something Burke is going to have a hard time doing if Kaberle is watching games from the bench and pressbox and going -3 each time he straps on the blades.

Luke Schenn

Got an email asking for an opinion on the Leafs keeping Luke Schenn up with the big club this year.

I have to say I really have no idea and I'd question anyone that has an ironclad opinion on any of this. Unless you're in charge of player development, how do you know what's right for each player? And if any blogger, journalist, member of the message board commentariat is so certain about what's right then I would advise them to polish up their CVs as there's huge demand with 28 or so NHL clubs for people that can identify NHL ready talent and the best path for development with that much certainty.

The men in the coaching offices and executive suites should be ideally placed and trained to have far more insight into this sort of things then a guy procrastinating in his office on a Monday afternoon, but then again, these are the same suits that signed Raycroft and Budaj to "anchor" the Avalanche nets, Jason Blake to a five year $20M deal and DiPietro to a 27 year three billion dollar contract, so there's certainly room to question the collective wisdom of sports executives.

In terms of precedence, I'm sure that for every success story of 18 year old d-men prospering (Stevens, Pronger) there's two or three times more busts, but that may be a bigger statement on the variables of drafting kids (how many 1st rounders turn out to be busts no matter where or how they're developed?) than it is an informed look at how to best develop NHL talent.

I guess I look at it this way:

If you were Ron Wilson, and you had his ego and his pride, and you had a diamond like Schenn would you want him to go back to junior to be coached by Ryan Huska or would you rather take a hands-on approach in helping him develop into a prime NHL defenceman?

If you were Cliff Fletcher, would you care about losing a single year of contract value in 2012 or '13. Most likely a season or two into a new collective bargaining agreement?

If you were a big-shot at MLSE and were focused maintaining profits and interest in your team, would you keep the young phenom in your line-up, or push to send him 4000Km west?

If you were Luke Schenn or his agent, where would you rather play?

If you were Matt Stajan (and we're going to go all the way back to 1980 for this tepid pop culture reference) would you want your bodyguard heading back to Kelowna while the Matt Dillon's of the league keep shaking you down for lunch money?

And I'm happy to see that the media coverage on this has shown the sports writers propensity for hard work, use of insider access and seeking out the ideal source by offering extensive quotes from the directors of player development at teams around the league, oh wait...

So there's my waffling - what's your take?

That Joke Isn't Funny Anymore

Top 10 Items I'd like to See Banned from Leafs Coverage

10. Ubiquitous references to 1967/40-x years (and counting).

I don’t see 1975 in the Flyers headlines, 1955 in every article about the Black Hawks or "never" in write-ups of the Blues, Canucks, Sharks, Sens, etc. Seems most people who remotely follow hockey know the Leafs haven’t won the Cup in over 40 years.

This descriptor is about as fresh as the box of baking soda that went into the freezer with Walt Disney and about as insightful as Charles Duell’s most famous quote.

9. Tank v. Try

Pretty much the epitome of false dichotomy. Or is it Morton’s Fork?

8. Reducing the Leafs cup count to 11.

We get it. Yes the Arenas/St. Pats won 2 cups prior to officially becoming the Leafs, but removing those cups belittles the media more than it does the team or the fans. The owner and team name may have changed, but the bulk of the rosters remained with the team the following season.

Does anyone think the Twins can't count their World Series win as the Washington Senators; the Colts can't count Super Bowls won in Baltimore; the 76ers can't count titles won as the Nationals; and poor Sacramento should lose their NBA title from 1951?

Must trophy counts be re-set every time a team is bought, sold, moved or has a name change?

7. Any discussion of Sundin's future.

If and when he signs, there will be entire forests wiped out to generate newsprint for the resulting coverage. Until then, I don't think we need another special filmed at his dock or bad translations from Swedish newspapers...

6. Fan-centric "reporting"

The Ottawa media doesn't work the locals' apathy/insecurity into every story. The bandwagon isn't the lead item in Vancouver. Arson, white flight and a deep-seated love of Beef on Weck don't make the Sabres' game recaps.

So why do the day-to-day concerns, worries and wallets of Leafs Nation get such prominent play in every article from game summaries to in-depth features?

If I wanted to know what Tony from Woodbridge thought about the state of the Leafs specialty teams, I’d listen to a phone-in sports radio show and hear it directly from the source.

It's lazy, doesn't add value and it's not telling me anything new. Lose it.

5. Turning 1 or 2 game results into major trend pieces

It’s like identifying NFL trends based on a single quarter or half of a football game. How about a little perspective and some big picture analysis?

4. Complaining about the Leafs being on HNIC.

There are so many things wrong with these type of stories.

First: the Leafs play in Canada’s largest media market and the number five or six market in North America. There are more people in the golden-horseshoe than can be found in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta combined.

Second: Ratings don’t lie.

Third: Let’s look at who this really affects: if you’re in the Ottawa valley, you get Sens games. If you're in Quebec, you get Habs games (RDS also carries all 82 Montreal Canadiens matches). If you’re in Alberta or BC, the HNIC early game is on at 4 or 5PM and one of the Flames, Oilers and Canucks will be on during Prime Time.

That means the only people “stuck” with the Leafs live between Winnipeg and Belleville. If they don’t like that ratings, market size and demand are enough to make the Leafs the default HNIC game, they can subscribe to RDS, Center Ice, or explore on-line options (if I can get an NHL game over the web in New Delhi, and the World Juniors in Hyderabad, I'm sure there are ways to avoid the Leafs every Saturday night).

3. Pretty much anything Don "Bochenski for Calder" Cherry has to say.

Someone much smarter than I am called him the Ann Coulter of hockey. Is it a schtick or is he really old-man crazy? Either way, there must be better things to report on that what an old show-man had to say on Saturday night.

2. The "When will Ron Wilson go nuclear on the media?" stories

This media angle is the equivalent of repeatedly poking something with a stick and then filing a sensational report on what happened. It's also a good reminder to never underestimate the media's love of writing about themselves, interviewing fellow journalists or covering existing coverage. This meme is a perfect case in point and a little more than a media-created mess.

Given the inanity of the questions, the size of the media contingent and the lack of quality of much of the end product there is only one right answer here: not soon enough. But let's look at the crux of the story angle here: what does it matter if Wilson snaps? What does it mean if he doesn’t? What value does this potential story bring to our understanding of hockey?


1. Plan the Parade Jokes

My daughter’s favourite joke goes like this:

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Banana

Knock Knock.
Who’s there?
Orange
Orange who?
Orange you glad I didn’t say banana?

I hear this joke about three times a day, seven days a week. It was funny and sort of cute the first time, but now it’s just white noise.

This is what the “plan the parade joke” has become.

But, in the case of the parade joke, it's not coming from an exceptionally adorable five year old who has no idea how tired and played out a joke can become. No, the joke is coming from a cadre of supposedly professionally trained journalists who have been hired and are compensated to provide insight and analysis on Canada’s favourite sport.

It's time for this one to be retired until the Leafs win at least three in a row.

No Predictions, Low Expectations

Cross-posted from PPP where the fellas were kind enough to ask me for my thoughts on the coming season, instead I gave them this...

No predictions and low expectations. That pretty much sums up my take on the upcoming Leaf season.

This is a year where, with the exception of Nikolai Kulemin and Ron Wilson, the most intriguing story lines will occur away from the ice at the ACC: the development of Schenn and Pogge; the backroom deals struck to bring in more picks and prospects; the on-going (never ending) search for a President and GM; the build-up to the trade deadline; prepping for the 2009 draft; the ongoing efforts to untie JFJ's Gordian knot; and hopefully avoiding the thin (thin!) 2009 UFA pool.

In place of a guess at a win loss record or what odds the Leafs might have of making the post-season, I offer this instead...

What We Can Learn from Cliff Fletcher

The first thing most people remember about Cliff Fletcher’s original tenure with the Leafs: blockbuster trades.

This is the GM that brought the Leafs Doug Gilmour and Mats Sundin; two trades that, in an ideal world, would buy this GM all sorts of latitude from the media, stakeholders and the fans.
This being Toronto, his legendary work is often brought into question by two simple words: "draft schmaft" (proving the lasting value of mnemonics).

The next thing fans are likely to recall is Fletcher dismantling the team. As then-owner Steve Stavros’ grocery empire came crumbling down it necessitated a series of salary dumps and resulted in one of the more recent dark periods of Leaf history (who was a worse coach, Mike Murphy or Paul Maurice? Discuss).

Between the big trades and the eventual decline of this club, Fletcher demonstrated not just a keen understanding of how to build a team, but how to evaluate one.

Fletcher is the first GM I can recall who looked at his team in ten game increments and openly talked to the media about using ten game trends to identify strengths, weaknesses and patterns in his team's play. (This could very well be more a function of having a string of horrible front office staff in Toronto than it was Fletcher bringing something new to the game, the fans and the media. For all I know, Cecil Hart and the Habs were doing this with The Gazette and La Presse back in Chelios' rookie season in 1937).

Breaking the Pain Down into Ten Game Segments

Fletcher's approach back in the day is something we fans could learn from and need to apply to the coming season.

This year the focus should be on player development and team trends over ten to 20 game increments, not on who blew coverage on the PK, which player kicked a sock in anger and how to best quantify the greed of MLSE and the alleged concomitant stupidity of Leaf fans.
Looking at how the Leafs have performed since the lock-out, we fans can do ten games in our sleep. It's also a safe way to approach a year that is likely to set some sort of record for media hysterics.

Mittenstringers, Mouth Breathers and One-Fingered Typists

Despite being covered by one of the largest media corps in Canada, one certainty for the coming season is that we fans will be fed a steady diet of little more than who won, who scored, and who's to blame. The nutritional equivalent of a cheeseburger-in-a-can, quick, easy, and entirely beside the point.

Look for the mittenstringers to second guess every Leaf transaction and to contradict themselves over what's "best" for the team and the players while neglecting to notice that the bulk of the roster is made up of players for the times rather than players for all time. Let's face it, many of these skaters won’t even be wearing the beautiful blue and white leaf on their chest come March.

Considering the transitional nature of the roster, instead of running these players out of town or setting up effigies, I suggest that the Barilkosphere lead the way in looking at the bigger picture.

How much more black could this be? And the answer is none. None more black.

In public polling (or "research" as those in the trade like to call it, don’t know when it happened but it seems pollster has become a bad word) one of the most fundamental questions one can ask it the "right track/wrong track" question. And it’s a question we should likely be asking every ten games leading up to the trade deadline. Is this team on the right track or the wrong track? Are management’s player personnel decisions on the right track or the wrong track? Are Wilson's systems on the right track or wrong track? Is Pogge's development on the right track (65 starts) or the wrong track (benched for Clemmensen in the playoffs)? Are the Leafs acquiring picks and prospects (right track) or dealing second round picks for 15 games of Yanic Perreault (wrong track)?

Let's face it, it really doesn’t matter if the Leafs win 14 or 40 games this year. What matters is how management reacts to the results in the wins and losses column. Building a team that can eventually take a serious run at and challenge for the Cup has to be, must be, at the root of every decision management makes.

Right track or wrong track?

A simple question to keep top of mind for the upcoming season.

A simple question that will hopefully distract us from countless third period melt-downs, rookie errors, and a media contingent that takes obscene delight in the failures of the Leafs and questioning the loyalty of Leaf fans.

29 Years Later

When I was a boy, the Toronto Maple Leafs and McClelland and Stewart (don’t look for them, they’re not there anymore) published a cloth cover book on the upcoming 1979-80 Leafs' season.

I read that book so many times the spine is broken, the pages are frayed and the dust jacket is a nothing but a long-lost memory.

It was published at a time of real optimism for the Leafs. The team was just two years removed from their playoff upset over the New York Islanders and, even though they had gone down four straight to the dreaded Montreal Canadiens in the Quarter Finals, game 3 had gone to double OT and game 4 was lost in OT on a questionable call against Dave “Tiger” Williams.

This was a time when Sittler still wore the C, MacDonald patrolled his wing, an optimistic Ron Wilson started the season on IR and a porn ‘stached Palmateer protected the pipes.

As thoughts turn to this year’s training camp with its new coaches and new rosters, I couldn’t help but be reminded of this book and its in-depth player profiles including expectations for the 79-80 season and a day-by-day précis of the Leafs training camp.

Now, I’m not suggesting this year’s Leaf season will have any resemblance to that horrible one 30 years ago.

First of all, the year ahead for the 2008-09 Leafs certainly isn’t starting off with the same patina of optimism. Secondly, I seriously doubt the Leafs could hit the same low points as that fateful year that saw the MacDonald trade, Sittler ripping off his C and the start of a twelve year run of the team posting a losing record (yeah, you read that right – the Leafs were under .500 for twelve straight seasons: 1979-80 to 1992-93. Keep that in mind when the media wring their hands over the past three years.).

That summer also saw Ballard and Imlach pursue legal action all the way to the Ontario Supreme court in an effort to keep Sittler and Palmateer from participating in Showdown - a televised skills competition between NHL players. (There's a great collection of Showdown videos from the CBC archives here. Man I LOVED this show as a kid.)

With that caveat out of the way and in anticipation of the Leafs training camp to come, I thought I’d go back through one of my favourite childhood books, violate all sorts of copyright laws, scan a few photos, and have a look at some interesting quotes, thoughts and anecdotes from the Leafs 29 years ago this September…

The World From on High: An Interview with Harold Ballard

The book begins with a long, very wide-ranging interview between Time Magazine reporter John Gault and Harold Ballard, including a lengthy discussion between Gault and Ballard on the Neilson firing, re-hiring (the infamous paper bag incident). I promise I’ll post that whole exchange soon.

There are some interesting echoes in this interview - meddling owners, bad trades and the need for better scouting, as captured in the exchange below:

John Gault: Who’s been traded away, in the past five years, say, that you wish you had back?
Harold Ballard: Well, Rick Kehoe for instance, who went to Pittsburgh. Carlyle should have been kept here. And I think that probably Jack Valiquette should have stayed.

Gault: The return on players you’ve sent to other teams hasn’t been that great in the past while, has it?
Ballard: No. We’ve traded away some pretty good hockey players.

Gault: Yes, and it could be argued that you didn’t exactly get your return on your dollars
Ballard: You don’t have to argue about it, it’s a fact.

Gault: Why?
Ballard: I don’t think our scouting system was that good or they wouldn’t have agreed to make those trades. Now you’ve said that I try to run everything. I don’t. When they were going to make a deal, I’d say to [former GM Jim] Gregory ‘Are you sure you’re going to do it?’ You see, they would have gotten rid of Turnbull if I hadn’t asserted myself last year and stopped it. Roger and Gregory wanted to get rid of Turnbull and I wouldn’t allow it. He couldn’t get along with the coach, so the coach wanted to get rid of him. As a matter of fact, Roger was quite adamant about it and I said: ‘Look, if he’s going to go, you’re going to go to.’ It was that bad.

Gault: I doubt that Neilson would have argued that Turnbull wasn’t a good hockey player
Ballard: Well he did. He had these ‘points’ He was a great guy with those replays, those little pictures you know. And he used to pick out all the bad things Turnbull did, but he didn’t pick out many good things...

I love that Ballard seems totally put off by Neilson’s use of video replay, or as he calls it: “those little pictures.”

A Guide to the Opposition

The late Frank Orr, formerly of the Toronto Star, provides an overview of all 20 NHL teams the Leafs would face in 1979-80, including the four new WHA teams that joined the NHL: Edmonton, Quebec, Hartford and Winnipeg.

Here are a few of the highlights:

The Sabres are trying something new with a “coaching staff” approach - Scotty Bowman hired Roger Neilson and Jim Roberts as Assistant Coaches. Don Cherry said of the approach: “Scotty wants assistants so he’ll have someone to blame if something goes wrong.” Bowman’s take: “I agree with the Europeans. They can’t understand why NHL teams have figured one coach could do the job. It’s just too complex for that now.”

1979-80 was the first season for the Oilers and they sold 14,600 season tickets within 11 days of tickets going on sale. Coach Glen Sather says he has his highest hopes for young Swedish forward Bengt Gustavsson [who never played a game for the Oilers, the Capitals claimed him at the expansion draft in June, 1979.]

The Whalers roster included a 51 year old Gordie Howe and coach Don Blackburn says he wants to experiment with moving left-wing Mark Howe (42-23-65 in 1978) back to defence.

The New York Islanders (that season’s Stanley Cup champs) only had one skater over 28 on their roster and their entire core (Trottier, Bossy, Gillies, Potvin, etc.) were under 25.

The Penguins were having attendance problems and were facing red ink.

In the 1970s, free agents were anything but. The Red Wings signed “Free Agent” goaltender Rogie Vachon from the LA Kings and had to compensate the Kings for the signing. The teams couldn’t agree on fair compensation and the Kings asked for, and were awarded, Dale McCourt – the Wings’ leading rookie scorer. McCourt refused to report to LA and the dispute ended up in the US courts. The lower court upheld the original compensation. McCourt and the Wings appealed the decision, but before a second court date was set, the Wings and Kings agreed to an alternate compensation and McCourt was “dealt” back to the Wings.

The Flyers got a first round pick for what has to be the oddest named twosome ever dealt: Orest Kindrachuk and Ross Lonsberry.

Training Camp September, 1979

Leaf veterans arrived in camp with a new coach (Floyd Smith) and a new GM (Punch Imlach) as GM Jim Gregory and Coach Roger Neilson were both fired over the summer.

When Nielson returned to the Gardens as the assistant coach of the Sabres for a pre-season game, the Leafs refused to let him sit in the press box. Imlach said, "If Neilson wants to coach, let him coach from behind the bench. He won't be able to do it from our press box." (You stay classy Imlach!)

Looking to add some grit to the line-up, Imlach offered Jim Dorey a try-out with the Leafs. Ten years earlier, Dorey set an NHL record with nine penalties - four minors, two majors, two 10 minute misconducts and a game misconduct - in just two periods of play. [After being cut by the Leafs, Dorey would go on to play 32 games that year for the Nordiques and then call it a career.]

The Leafs played 12 exhibition games including matches in Moncton, NB; Ottawa, ON, Kitchener, ON; and against the Canadian Olympic team in Calgary (the Leafs lost to the Olympians 6-5, Lanny had a hat-trick. Apparently the Leafs had trouble with the Olympians speed. And no, I didn't just make that up...)

The Leafs played the Habs in game 11 of their pre-season and actually won. It was the first time the Leafs had beaten Montreal in 25 straight meetings. The Leafs hadn't beaten Montreal in an exhibition, regular season or playoff game since November 1, 1976.

Future Washington Capitals coach Bruce Budreau was amongst the Leafs last cuts at camp, getting sent to Moncton on day 17.

Interesting to note that this club would produce at least four NHL coaches in Quennville, Anderson, Boudreau and Ron Wilson (and one cottage-country bar owner in Walt McKechnie).

Money quotes:

"I guess having a new coach always creates a little feeling of unrest because you wonder about the style of hockey he'll want the team to use and how you'll fit into it." - Ron Wilson.

"There are some holes in our team, aren't there?" - Floyd Smith

The Players



Each of the 24 Leafs who made the team out of training camp are profiled at the end of the book. It's the standard 20 questions format - why hockey, what would you be doing if you weren't in the NHL, superstitions, activities away from the rink, personal goals...Here's a look at the highlights:

"I like the hours. It's not a nine to five job. You have the summers off to do what you want and, of course, the money isn't bad." - John Anderson on the Pros and Cons of Sports Celebrity.

"I would have liked to get into a veterinary line of work or work with wildlife" - Dan Maloney on alternate career prospects.

"I never set personal goals for myself; the only goal is the Stanley Cup. When you start setting personal goals you're putting pressure on yourself and that kind of pressure you don't need. When I get my first goal I'll go for number two and so on. You take whatever comes. Winning the Stanley Cup and playing international hockey: that's the ultimate, to play for your country. I've already done one and, hopefully, befoer the end of my career, I'll accomplish the other." - Lanny MacDonald

"Amityville Horror and Penthouse are favourites." - Joel Quennville on what he likes to read.

"Mr. Ballard. Yeah, I'm serious." - Dave "Tiger" Williams on his favourite opponent

"I'll just play until I stop enjoying it. If I don't play a lot this year or next year I may hang up the game because it's no fun sitting on the bench." - Ron Wilson

Something I Learned Today

The world always makes the assumption that the exposure of an error is identical with the discovery of the truth - that error and truth are simply opposite. They are nothing of the sort. What the world turns to, when it has been cured of one error, is usually simply another error, and maybe one worse than the first one. - H.L. Mencken

When it comes to going public with bad news, there are two types of organizations:

1. Those that deal with it in an open and transparent manner – Tylenol is the oft-cited prototype in this camp and, much more recently, Maple Leaf Meats have shown the merit of being open, honest and accountable.
2. Those who leak, bury or misdirect the news in an effort to control the message.

I’d say my beloved Toronto Maple Leafs usually fall into slot #2.

And what are some of the best tactics to get in front of a bad news story?

1. Release it late on the Friday of a long-weekend;
2. Release it when there’s a lot of other bad news in the system; and/or
3. Leak the bad news early and leak it often – by the time the news becomes official or confirmed, most people will have moved through the five stages of grief from anger to acceptance.

When it comes to the Bryan McCabe trade, the Leafs have gone for door number 3 like the RIAA going after a 12 year old with a USB drive full of Jonas Brothers mp3s and the outcome, strangely, seems to be acceptance.

What’s that Smell?

The first time I went to Kamloops I was visiting an old friend who had just gotten engaged.

Kamloops stunk. Figuratively and literally.

The town is essentially a bowl built around a pulp mill. The scent of reduced sulphurs permeates everything.

The first few days I was in town, I kept asking my friend how he could live in a place that, um, stank. I don't mean to be cruel, but everything was tinted with the malodorous combination of cabbage and rotten eggs.

But then a strange thing happened: the smell seemed to go away. I no longer spent my days with a crinkled nose and worried brow wondering how people live among such a paralyzing stink.

Except the smell never went away.

The town still stunk of the by-products of supplying the world with 477,000 tonnes of pulp related products.

I just lost my ability to detect the stench.

Scientists call this phenomena olfactory adaptation or olfactory fatigue. Our nervous systems are programmed to automatically desensitize to certain stimuli so that we are not overloaded. For example, our skin doesn't constantly sense our clothing and our noses eventually get used to the gagging stink of pulp.

By turning down a response to certain or constant stimuli our bodies are better able to recognize and respond to new stimuli/possible threats.

If you've made it this far and are still reading, you may be asking yourself what pulp products, bad odours and olfactory adaptation have to do with the Leafs.

Stick with me here...

In Leaf Land it's not Pulp, it’s the Stench of Failure

I wonder if maybe Leafs Nation is undergoing a massive case of olfactory adaptation.

That we've become so used to the smell in these parts that they don't notice it anymore.

Slam McCabe all you want. Link to the youtube compilation videos of his various gaffes. Mock his haircuts, goofy faces and penchant for taking dumb penalties.

Go ahead and cringe at the burden of his no-movement clause.

But then step back and look at the numbers.

Three out of the last five seasons, McCabe was among the top 10 in scoring by a defenseman; three times he finished in the top three for goals.

Believe it or not, McCabe placed third in Norris trophy voting in 2004 and ninth in 2006.

He cracked the taxi squad for the 2006 Canadian Olympic squad. Bitch and moan all you want that he wasn’t in the top six on that club, but to be on the Canadian Olympic team is to be among some pretty elite company.

Despite all of these accomplishments and accolades, McCabe’s no-movement clause has allegedly so diminished his value that the Leafs had to include a draft pick in order to complete the deal.

Bottom line: the return for a number 2 d-man, power play quarterback, who can log 20+ minutes a night, who has a history of finishing in the top 10 in scoring (and who occasionally scores in the wrong net) is nothing more than a 3-4 d-man who’s recovering from multiple wrist surgeries.

And the Leafs had to throw in a 4th round pick to get the deal done.

As Steve points out in his latest entry, and as I posted earlier this summer, the trade does nothing to solve the Leafs' log-jam on D where they're approaching the season with nine NHL caliber defencemen (10 if you think Schenn might get more than a cup of coffee with the big club).

Anyone that hasn't been living under a rock can tell you that the Leafs don't need more D; they don't need cap flexibility; they don't need to shed more draft picks.

And yet, that's what they get for a top pairing d-man.

The Toronto Maple Leafs: A Rich History of Horrible Asset Management

I cannot believe that I’m going to cite Damien Cox here, but he has a point (ick). The Leafs have moved a pretty big chunk of talent/assets off their roster in the last few years. Consider:

• Belfour
• Domi
• Tucker
• Wellwood
• Rask===>Raycroft (should have been ===>ECHL but for the Avs)
• McCabe

All gone for nothing more than Mike Van Ryn and a series of lingering cap hits.

If shedding all of those players for nothing weren't bad enough, Fletcher has spent even more assets to spackle over the same holes:

• Mayers for a third round pick
• Grabovski for a second round pick
• Schenn for a second and third round pick
• a Fourth round pick to kiss McCabe goodbye

Changing the Culture: Buying High and Selling Low

I understand that management is trying to change the so-called culture of this club.

They gassed the coach (could only talk a good game), waived Wellwood (uncommitted, soft); bought-out Tucker (washed-up, psychopathic) and bought-out Raycroft (glove hand not good enough for mite T-ball).

But I’d argue that the real cultural change is far more urgently needed in the executive corridors of MLSE than in the locker room.

When Fletcher first came back to the Leafs, it was with a real sense of confidence. I loved his candid approach to assessing the team. I loved the moves he made at the trade deadline. I thought PM had to go and Wilson was a pretty solid replacement.

And then things regressed back to the norm. This team has a long twisted tradition of buying high and selling low, a philosophy that, once again, has stained all of Fletcher’s moves this summer.

The Leafs' story remains too many assets out the door with too little to show for it.

And the McCabe trade is just one more deal where the Leafs come out on the losing end.

Fletcher said last Tuesday: "Trying to build a team can't be fast-tracked."

He may be right, but he's demonstrating that it sure can be chronically mismanaged.